Summary
This report covers the market landscape and supply-chain for silicon wafers used in semiconductor device fabrication. It includes information about key suppliers, issues/trends in the material supply chain, estimates on supplier market share, and forecast for the material segments. Silicon wafers are the fundamental starting point for nearly all semiconductor device fabrication. As such, the criticality of the role that this material plays in the semiconductor supply chain is hard to refute and is treated as such accordingly in this Critical Materials Report.
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Contains data and analysis from TECHCET’s database and Sr. Analyst experience, as well as that developed from primary and secondary market research
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Provides focused silicon wafers supply chain information for supply-chain managers, process integration and R&D directors, as well as business development and financial analysts
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Covers information about key silicon wafer suppliers, issues/trends in the silicon wafer supply chain, estimates on supplier market share, and silicon wafer market forecasting
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Includes 3 Quarterly Updates, with updates on market trends and forecasts from the analyst
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Table of Contents
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 SILICON WAFER BUSINESS – MARKET OVERVIEW
1.2 MARKET TRENDS AFFECTING 2025
1.3 SILICON WAFER 5-YEAR UNIT SHIPMENT FORECAST BY SEGMENT
1.4 WAFER 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST BY SEGMENT
1.5 SILICON WAFER SEGMENT TRENDS
1.6 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
1.7 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
1.8 FIRST QUARTER 2025 FINANCIALS OF TOP-5 SUPPLIERS
1.9 EHS, TRADE, AND/OR LOGISTICS ISSUES/CONCERNS
1.10 ANALYST ASSESSMENT OF SILICON WAFERS
2 SCOPE, PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY
2.1 SCOPE, PURPOSE & METHODOLOGY
2.2 OVERVIEW OF OTHER TECHCET CMR(TM) OFFERINGS
3 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY MARKET STATUS & OUTLOOK
3.1 WORLDWIDE ECONOMY AND OUTLOOK
3.2 WORLDWIDE ECONOMY AND OVERVIEW
3.2.1 WORLDWIDE ECONOMY AND SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET OVERVIEW
3.2.2 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES TIES TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
3.2.3 SEMICONDUCTOR SALES GROWTH
3.2.4 TAIWAN OUTSOURCE MANUFACTURER MONTHLY SALES TRENDS
3.3 CHIPS SALES BY ELECTRONIC GOODS SEGMENT
3.3.1 FACTORS IMPACTING ELECTRONIC SYSTEMS OUTLOOK
3.3.2 PC OUTLOOK
3.3.3 SMARTPHONE OUTLOOK
3.3.4 AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
3.3.5 SERVERS / IT MARKET
3.4 SEMICONDUCTOR FABRICATION GROWTH & EXPANSION
3.4.1 IN THE MIDST OF HUGE INVESTMENT IN CHIP EXPANSIONS
3.4.2 PUBLIC FUNDS STIMULATING PRIVATE INVESTMENTS IN EXPANSION ACROSS THE GLOBE
3.4.3 SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN ANNOUNCED EXPANSIONS IN THE US
3.4.4 EQUIPMENT SPENDING TRENDS
3.4.5 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS
3.5 POLICY & TRADE TRENDS AND IMPACT
3.6 SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTION (WAFER STARTS*) AND MATERIALS OVERVIEW
3.6.1 TECHCET WAFER STARTS FORECAST THROUGH 2029
3.6.2 TECHCET ELECTRONIC MATERIALS MARKET FORECAST THROUGH 2028
4 SILICON WAFER MARKET TRENDS
4.1 SILICON WAFER MARKET TRENDS – OUTLINE
4.1.1 SILICON WAFER MARKET TRENDS – INTRODUCTION
4.1.2 2024 SILICON WAFER MARKET LEADING INTO 2025
4.1.3 SILICON WAFER MARKET OUTLOOK
4.1.4 SILICON WAFER 5-YEAR UNIT SHIPMENT FORECAST BY SEGMENT
4.1.5 WAFER 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST BY SEGMENT
4.2 SILICON WAFER SUPPLY CAPACITY AND DEMAND, INVESTMENTS - OUTLINE
4.2.1 SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION CAPACITY OF TOP SUPPLIERS
4.2.2 SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION LOCATIONS
4.3 INVESTMENT ANNOUNCEMENTS - OVERVIEW
4.3.1 INVESTMENT ANNOUNCEMENTS & BACKGROUND
4.3.2 INVESTMENT ANNOUNCEMENTS – BACKGROUND OF MARKET LANDSCAPE
4.3.3 INVESTMENT ANNOUNCEMENTS – OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
4.3.4 INVESTMENT ANNOUNCEMENTS – CAPEX TRENDS
4.3.5 SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION CAPACITY EXPANSIONS
4.4 SILICON WAFER SUPPLY VS. DEMAND BALANCE - OVERVIEW
4.4.1 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND BALANCE – 300MM SILICON WAFERS
4.4.2 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND BALANCE – 200MM SILICON WAFERS
4.4.3 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND BALANCE – 300MM SILICON EPI WAFERS
4.5 PRICING TRENDS
4.6 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS/TECHNICAL DRIVERS - OUTLINE
4.6.1 SILICON WAFER GENERAL TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW
4.6.2 WAFER TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
4.6.3 WAFER TECHNOLOGY TRENDS, SIC
4.6.4 SPECIALTY/EMERGING SILICON WAFER AND APPLICATIONS
4.7 REGIONAL CONSIDERATIONS
4.7.1 REGIONAL ASPECTS AND DRIVERS
4.8 EHS AND TRADE/LOGISTIC ISSUES
4.8.1 EHS ISSUES
4.8.2 TRADE/LOGISTICS ISSUES
4.8.3 TRADE/LOGISTICS ISSUES, SIC
4.9 ANALYST ASSESSMENT OF SILICON WAFER MARKET TRENDS
5 SUPPLY-SIDE MARKET LANDSCAPE
5.1 WAFER MARKET SHARE
5.2 CURRENT QUARTER - SUPPLIERS'ACTIVITIES & REPORTED REVENUES
5.2.1 CURRENT QUARTER TOP-5 SUPPLIERS'ACTIVITIES & REPORTED REVENUES
5.2.2 CURRENT QUARTER ACTIVITY – SHIN-ETSU
5.2.3 CURRENT QUARTER ACTIVITY – SUMCO
5.2.4 CURRENT QUARTER ACTIVITY – GLOBALWAFERS
5.2.5 CURRENT QUARTER ACTIVITY - SILTRONIC
5.2.6 CURRENT QUARTER ACTIVITY – SK SILTRON
5.2.7 CURRENT QUARTER ACTIVITY – OTHER
5.3 M&A ACTIVITY, PARTNERSHIPS, AND COLLABORATIVE AGREEMENTS
5.4 PLANT CLOSURES
5.5 NEW ENTRANTS
5.6 SUPPLIERS OR PARTS/PRODUCT LINES THAT ARE AT RISK OF DISCONTINUATIONS
5.7 TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT OF SILICON WAFER SUPPLIERS
6 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN
6.1 SUB-TIER SUPPLY CHAIN: SOURCES & MARKETS OVERVIEW
6.1.1 SUB-TIER SUPPLY CHAIN: POLYSILICON PROCESS FLOW AND SOURCES
6.1.2 SUB-TIER SUPPLY CHAIN: QUARTZ CRUCIBLES
6.1.3 SUB-TIER SUPPLY CHAIN: CHEMICAL-RELATED WAFER PROCESSING
6.1.4 SUB-TIER SUPPLY CHAIN: GAS-RELATED WAFER PROCESSING
6.2 POLYSILICON MARKET BACKGROUND
6.2.1 POLYSILICON MARKET TRENDS
6.2.2 POLYSILICON INDUSTRIAL(PV) VS. SEMICONDUCTOR-GRADE(EG)
6.2.3 SEMICONDUCTOR-GRADE POLYSILICON DEMAND
6.2.4 SUB-TIER SUPPLY CHAIN: POLYSILICON MARKET SHARE
6.2.5 SEMICONDUCTOR-GRADE POLYSILICON SUPPLIERS
6.3 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN PRICING TRENDS
6.4 SEMICONDUCTOR-GRADE POLYSILICON SUPPLIER AND RELATED NEWS
6.5 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: PLANT CLOSURES / DISRUPTIONS
6.6 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN M&A OR PARTNERSHIP ACTIVITY
6.7 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN “NEW” ENTRANTS
6.8 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN PLANT UPDATES
6.9 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN EHS AND TRADE/LOGISTICS ISSUES
6.10 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT
7 SUPPLIER PROFILES
CENGOL
CETC
CHONGQING AST
CREE/WOLFSPEED
AND MORE …
8 APPENDIX
8.1 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN PRICING TRENDS, MAY – JUNE 2025 PV
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List of Tables/Graphs
FIGURES
FIGURE 1.1: SILICON WAFER SHIPMENT FORECAST BY SEGMENT
FIGURE 1.2: WAFER REVENUE FORECAST BY SEGMENT
FIGURE 1.3: 2024 WAFER SUPPLIER MARKET SHARE BY REVENUE
FIGURE 1.4: TOP-5 SILICON WAFER MAKERS'QUARTERLY COMBINED SALES
FIGURE 3.1: HISTORICAL AND FORECASTED GDP GROWTH (2000 – 2029)
FIGURE 3.2: GLOBAL ECONOMY AND THE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN (2024)
FIGURE 3.3: WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR SALES ($B)
FIGURE 3.4: TECHCET’S TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY INDEX (TTSI) MOMENTUM TRACKER
FIGURE 3.5: 2024 SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP APPLICATIONS
FIGURE 3.6: SMARTPHONE SHIPMENTS, WW ESTIMATES
FIGURE 3.7: GLOBAL LIGHT VEHICLE PRODUCTION FORECAST (IN MILLIONS OF UNITS)
FIGURE 3.8: US EV RETAIL SHARE FORECAST
FIGURE 3.9: AUTOMOTIVE SEMICONDUCTOR FORECAST ESTIMATES (2018-2029, B$'S USD)
FIGURE 3.10: AI VALUE FORECAST ($B’S USD)
FIGURE 3.11: SCALE OF TODAY’S AI-CENTRIC DATA CENTERS
FIGURE 3.12: TSMC PHOENIX FAB INVESTMENT TO EXCEED US $65B
FIGURE 3.13: ESTIMATED GLOBAL FAB INVESTMENT 2024-2029 ($858.6B)
FIGURE 3.14: ANNOUNCED PUBLIC STIMULUS AND RESPECTIVE SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP MANUFACTURING REGIONS
FIGURE 3.15: SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN EXPANSIONS WITHIN THE US
FIGURE 3.16: GLOBAL TOTAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING (US$ M)
FIGURE 3:17: TSMC LOGIC ROADMAP BY NODE
FIGURE 3.18: TECHCET WAFER START FORECAST BY NODE SEGMENTS MILLIONS OF 200MM EQUIVALENTS PER YEAR
FIGURE 3.19: TECHCET WORLDWIDE ELECTRONIC MATERIALS FORECAST ($M USD)
FIGURE 4.1: INDUSTRY STANDARD WAFER DIAMETER PROGRESSION
FIGURE 4.2: WAFER DIAMETER IMPACT ON DIE COUNT
FIGURE 4.3: SILICON WAFER SHIPMENT FORECAST BY SEGMENT
FIGURE 4.4: WAFER REVENUE FORECAST BY SEGMENT
FIGURE 4.5: SILICON WAFER SUPPLIER MARKET SHARE OF 300MM CAPACITY (AS A % OF TOTAL UNITS)
FIGURE 4.6: ILLUSTRATIVE PRODUCTION IMPACT VERSUS COST FOR INVESTMENT CATEGORIES
FIGURE 4.7: HEIGHTENED EXPANSION INVESTMENT CHALLENGE – THE ENVIRONMENT FACED BY SILICON WAFER MANUFACTURERS
FIGURE 4.8: STRATEGIES TO IMPROVE ROIC OUTLOOKS
FIGURE 4.9: INDEXED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE TRENDS, 2020 = 100
FIGURE 4.10: FROM GROUNDBREAKING TO CERTIFICATION
FIGURE 4.11: 300MM WAFER SUPPLY / DEMAND FORECAST
FIGURE 4.12: 200MM WAFER SUPPLY / DEMAND FORECAST
FIGURE 4.13: 300MM EPI WAFER SUPPLY / DEMAND FORECAST
FIGURE 4.14: WORLDWIDE SILICON WAFER ASP TREND (INCLUDES SOI)
FIGURE 4.15: WAFER FIDUCIAL FEATURES DENOTING DOPANT TYPE AND SURFACE ORIENTATION
FIGURE 4.16: THE EVOLUTION OF WAFER SLICING
FIGURE 4.17: CONTROLLING THE WAFER SHAPE AT ITS PERIPHERY
FIGURE 4.18: QUANTUM COMPUTING, BITS VERSUS QUBITS
FIGURE 4.19: FABRICATION STRUCTURES REQUIRING MORE THAN ONE WAFER
FIGURE 4.20: 2024 SILICON AND SOI REVENUE SHARE BY COMPANY HQ REGION
FIGURE 4.21: ENVIRONMENTAL FOOTPRINT OF SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION
FIGURE 4.22: INCREASING WEIGHT OF A BATCH1 OF SILICON WAFERS
FIGURE 4.23: OVERHEAD 300MM WAFER TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
FIGURE 5.1: 2024 WAFER SUPPLIER MARKET SHARE BY REVENUE
FIGURE 5.2: TOP-5 SILICON WAFER MAKERS'QUARTERLY COMBINED SALES
FIGURE 5.3: SHIN-ETSU CURRENT QUARTER FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE
FIGURE 5.4: SUMCO CURRENT QUARTER FINANCIAL REPORT AND OUTLOOK
FIGURE 5.5: GLOBALWAFERS CURRENT QUARTER FINANCIAL REPORT
FIGURE 5.6: SILTRONIC CURRENT QUARTER FINANCIAL REPORT
FIGURE 5.7: SK SILTRON CURRENT QUARTER FINANCIALS
FIGURE 5.8: NSIG PERFORMANCE HAS SHIFTED NEGATIVELY
FIGURE 6.1: PRIMARY INPUTS OF SILICON WAFER MANUFACTURING AND NOTABLE SUPPLIERS (HQ COUNTRY)
FIGURE 6.2: HIGH-LEVEL SUPPLY CHAIN AND KEY SOURCE REGIONS
FIGURE 6.3: SPECIALIZED SUBMERGED ARC FURNACE FOR MG-SI PRODUCTION
FIGURE 6.4: PROCESS OVERVIEW OF ELECTRONIC-GRADE (EG) POLYSILICON1 PRODUCTION
FIGURE 6.5: FORMED POLYSILICON RODS IN CVD REACTOR AND CLOSEUP OF CHUNK POLYSILICON
FIGURE 6.6: QUARTZ CRUCIBLE SIZES HAVE EVOLVED WITH WAFER DIAMETER
FIGURE 6.7: QUARTZ CRUCIBLE APPLICATION AND PURITY
FIGURE 6.8: PRIMARY USES OF CHEMICALS IN PRODUCTION OF SILICON WAFERS
FIGURE 6.9: PRIMARY USES OF GASES IN PRODUCTION OF SILICON WAFERS
FIGURE 6.10: POLYSILICON NAMING CONVENTION
FIGURE 6.11: HSC CHIPS ACT FUNDING
FIGURE 6.12: TRIGGERING THE SUPPLY EXPANSION OF CHINA EG POLYSILICON
FIGURE 6.13: POLYSILICON DEMAND - SEMICONDUCTOR (EG) VS.INDUSTRIAL (PV)
FIGURE 6.14: EG POLYSILICON DEMAND TREND FOR SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION
FIGURE 6.15: 5-YEAR PRICE TREND OF SOLAR POLYSILICON – A TWO-TIERED STRUCTURE
FIGURE 6.16: DAILY CLOSING SPOT PRICE TREND OF EG POLYSILICON MAY 9 – JUNE 9, 2025
FIGURE 6.17: KEY POLYSILICON INPUT COST TRENDS
FIGURE 6.18: US CONGRESSIONAL APPEAL TO DOC REGARDING CHINESE PRACTICES
FIGURE 6.19: SPRUCE PINE, NC FLOODING AS A RESULT OF HURRICANE HELENE
FIGURE 8.1: DAILY CLOSING SPOT PRICE TREND OF SOLAR POLYSILICON – MAY 9 THRU JUNE 9, 2025
TABLES
TABLE 1.1: WAFER GROWTH OVERVIEW
TABLE 3.1: GLOBAL GDP AND SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUES
TABLE 3.2: INITIALLY ANNOUNCED* US RECIPROCAL TARIFF SCHEDULE
TABLE 3.3: WORLDWIDE PC FORECAST BY SEGMENT
TABLE 3.4: IT MARKET SPENDING FORECAST, 2025
TABLE 4.1: OVERVIEW OF WAFER CATEGORIES
TABLE 4.2: ESTIMATED 300MM SHARE OF CAPACITY BY SUPPLIER
TABLE 4.3: NOTABLE SILICON WAFER SUPPLIER MANUFACTURING LOCATIONS
TABLE 4.4: OVERVIEW OF SILICON WAFER SUPPLIER INVESTMENT ANNOUNCEMENTS
TABLE 4.5: REGIONAL WAFER MARKETS
TABLE 4.6: TRADE INVESTIGATION COMPARISON
TABLE 5.1: MOST RECENT TOP-5 QUARTERLY SILICON WAFER SUPPLIER SALES (IN LOCAL CURRENCY, AS REPORTED)
TABLE 5.2: DETAILS OF SUMCO SMALL DIAMETER WAFER CONSOLIDATION
TABLE 6.1: ESTIMATED 2024 POLYSILICON TOP-7 SUPPLIER RANKING
TABLE 6.2: SEMICONDUCTOR–GRADE POLYSILICON SUPPLIERS QUALIFIED OUTSIDE OF CHINA
TABLE 6.3: SEMICONDUCTOR–GRADE POLYSILICON SUPPLIER STATUS IN CHINA
Press Release
Jun 19, 2025 | Press Release
TECHCET Projects 6.4% CAGR for Silicon Wafers Through 2029
San Diego, CA, June 19, 2025:
TECHCET — the electronic materials advisory firm providing semiconductor materials supply chain information— forecasts a 3.8% increase in silicon wafer revenues in 2025, reaching approximately US $14.0 billion. Shipment volumes are expected to climb by 5.4% year-over-year, driven by improved order activity as inventory levels correct, and semiconductor production begins to rebound. TECHCET projects a 6.4% CAGR in wafer revenue through 2029, supported by a sustained demand for 300mm wafers and the transition to more advanced logic and packaging technologies as showcased in TECHCET’s Critical Materials Report(TM) on Silicon Wafers.
Silicon Wafers Revenue Forecast 2024-2029
In 2024, the silicon wafer market declined, with shipment volumes dropping 3.6% to 12,400 million square inches (MSI) and revenues falling 5.8% to approximately US $13.5 billion. The downturn was attributed to weakened industrial and automotive chip segments coupled with some sluggishness in mainstream memory and excess wafer inventory, which limited new orders. 300mm wafer shipments slipped 1.6%, while smaller diameter wafers saw steeper declines, particularly LT150mm (less than 150mm), which fell over 20%. As a result, 300mm wafers retained their dominant position, driven by their role in advanced device manufacturing.
Looking forward, the silicon wafer market is expected to benefit from growth in AI and high-performance computing, requiring increasingly pure and defect-free wafers. However, the industry faces ongoing pressure from pricing, overcapacity in small diameter segments, and geopolitical risks. China’s push for self-sufficiency and its “Buy Chinese” policies are affecting global competition and market access. Environmental and safety considerations around wafer production and upstream polysilicon sourcing also remain key concerns. Even so, the industry’s strategic role in enabling next-gen semiconductors while supporting a broad set of current devices underscores its long-term global importance.
