Summary
This report covers the market landscape and supply-chain for Precursors used in semiconductor device fabrication. It includes information about key suppliers, issues/trends in the material supply chain, estimates on supplier market share, and forecast for the material segments.
• Provides market and technical trend information on organic and inorganic precursors, addressing CVD, ALD applications including high κ metal-oxides, barrier layers, metal interconnects, and capping layers, among others.
• Provides focused information for supply-chain managers, process integration and R&D directors, as well as business development and financial analysts
• Covers information about key suppliers, issues/trends in the electronics material supply chain, estimates on supplier market share, and forecast for the electronics material segments
• Includes 3 Quarterly Updates, with updates on market trends and forecasts from the analyst
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Table of Contents
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 PRECURSORS MARKET TRENDS
1.2 MARKET TRENDS IMPACTING 2025 OUTLOOK
1.3 METAL & HIGH-K PRECURSORS 5-YEAR UNIT SHIPMENT FORECAST BY SEGMENT
1.4 PRECURSOR SEGMENT TRENDS
1.5 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
1.6 METAL & HIGH-K PRECURSORS PRODUCTION CAPACITY OF TOP SUPPLIERS
1.7 CURRENT QUARTER TOP-5 PRECURSOR SUPPLIERS'ACTIVITIES & REPORTED REVENUES
1.8 EHS, TRADE, AND/OR LOGISTICS ISSUES/CONCERNS
1.9 ANALYST ASSESSMENT OF METAL & HI K PRECURSORS MATERIALS
2 SCOPE, PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY
2.1 SCOPE, PURPOSE & METHODOLOGY
2.2 OVERVIEW OF OTHER TECHCET CMR(TM) OFFERINGS
3 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY MARKET STATUS & OUTLOOK
3.1 WORLDWIDE ECONOMY AND OUTLOOK
3.2 WORLDWIDE ECONOMY AND OVERVIEW
3.2.1 WORLDWIDE ECONOMY AND SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET OVERVIEW
3.2.2 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES TIES TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
3.2.3 SEMICONDUCTOR SALES GROWTH
3.2.4 TAIWAN OUTSOURCE MANUFACTURER MONTHLY SALES TRENDS
3.3 CHIPS SALES BY ELECTRONIC GOODS SEGMENT
3.3.1 FACTORS IMPACTING ELECTRONIC SYSTEMS OUTLOOK
3.3.2 PC OUTLOOK
3.3.3 SMARTPHONE OUTLOOK
3.3.4 AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
3.3.5 SERVERS / IT MARKET
3.4 SEMICONDUCTOR FABRICATION GROWTH & EXPANSION
3.4.1 IN THE MIDST OF HUGE INVESTMENT IN CHIP EXPANSIONS
3.4.2 PUBLIC FUNDS STIMULATING PRIVATE INVESTMENTS IN EXPANSION ACROSS THE GLOBE
3.4.3 SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN ANNOUNCED EXPANSIONS IN THE US
3.4.4 EQUIPMENT SPENDING TRENDS
3.4.5 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS
3.5 POLICY & TRADE TRENDS AND IMPACT
3.6 SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTION (WAFER STARTS*) AND MATERIALS OVERVIEW
3.6.1 TECHCET WAFER STARTS FORECAST THROUGH 2029
3.6.2 TECHCET ELECTRONIC MATERIALS MARKET FORECAST THROUGH 2028
4 PRECURSOR MARKET TRENDS
4.1 PRECURSORS MARKET TRENDS
4.1.1 PRECURSOR MARKET OUTLOOK
4.1.2 2023 PRECURSOR MARKET LEADING INTO 2024
4.2 MARKET DRIVERS FROM LOGIC DEVICE GROWTH
4.3 MARKET DRIVERS FROM DRAM DEVICE GROWTH
4.3.1 DRAM MARKET OUTLOOK
4.4 MARKET DRIVERS FROM 3DNAND DEVICE GROWTH
4.4.1 3DNAND MARKET OUTLOOK
4.5 MARKET STATISTICS - METAL & HIGH-K PRECURSORS 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST BY SEGMENT
4.5.1 METAL & HIGH-K PRECURSORS SUPPLIER MARKET SHARES
4.5.2 METAL & HIGH-K PRECURSOR REVENUE BY REGION
4.7 PRECURSOR PRODUCTION CAPACITY EXPANSIONS
4.7.1 INVESTMENT ANNOUNCEMENTS OVERVIEW
4.7.2 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY ADDITIONAL COMMENTS
4.8 MATERIAL SUPPLY VS. DEMAND BALANCE OF METAL PRECURSORS – GENERAL COMMENTS
4.9 PRICING TRENDS
4.10 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS/TECHNICAL DRIVERS - OUTLINE
4.10.1 DRAM TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
4.10.2 3DNAND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
4.10.3 LOGIC TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
4.10.4 LOGIC TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
4.11 METAL PRECURSOR GENERAL TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW
4.11.1 SPECIALTY/EMERGING PRECURSOR AND APPLICATIONS – FERROELECTRIC DOPED HFO2
4.11.2 SPECIALTY/EMERGING PRECURSOR AND APPLICATIONS - RUTHENIUM
4.11.3 SPECIALTY/EMERGING PRECURSOR AND APPLICATIONS - IGZO
4.11.4 SPECIALTY/EMERGING PRECURSOR AND APPLICATIONS – 2D MATERIALS
4.11.5 SPECIALTY/EMERGING PRECURSOR AND APPLICATIONS – METAL OXIDE RESIST
4.12 IP FILING CVD AND ALD SINCE 2001
4.13 REGIONAL CONSIDERATIONS – IP FILING IN CVD AND ALD
4.13.1 REGIONAL ASPECTS AND DRIVERS
4.14 EHS AND TRADE/LOGISTIC ISSUES
4.14.1 EHS ISSUES
4.14.2 TRADE/LOGISTICS ISSUES
4.15 ANALYST ASSESSMENT OF PRECURSOR MARKET TRENDS
5 SUPPLY-SIDE MARKET ACTIVITY
5.1 LEADING SUPPLIERS - ACTIVITIES & REPORTED REVENUES
5.1.1 CURRENT QUARTER ACTIVITY – AIR LIQUIDE Q1/2025
5.1.2 CURRENT QUARTER ACTIVITY – MERCK (EMD) Q1/2025
5.1.3 CURRENT QUARTER ACTIVITY – ADEKA Q4/2024
5.1.4 CURRENT QUARTER ACTIVITY – DUPONT Q1/2025
5.2 DIVESTITURES, M&A AND PARTNERSHIPS
5.2.1 DIVESTITURES, M&A AND PARTNERSHIPS - QNITY
5.2.2 DIVESTITURES, M&A AND PARTNERSHIPS - KOREAN SUPPLIERS
5.2.3 DIVESTITURES, M&A AND PARTNERSHIPS - JSR
5.3 PLANT CLOSURES
5.4 NEW ENTRANTS – NONE TO REPORT
5.5 SUPPLIERS OR PARTS/PRODUCT LINES THAT ARE AT RISK OF DISCONTINUATIONS - NONE
5.6 TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT OF PRECURSOR SUPPLIERS
6 SUB-TIER SUPPLY CHAIN, MATERIAL
6.1 SUB-TIER SUPPLY CHAIN: SOURCES & MARKETS OVERVIEW
6.2 SUB-TIER SUPPLY CHAIN: KEY MANUFACTURING SOURCES OF PRECURSORS
6.3 ALD/CVD EQUIPMENT M&A OF THE OEM SUB-TIER
6.4 NOBEL METAL SUPPLIERS MARKET TRENDS
6.5 INDUSTRIAL VS. SEMICONDUCTOR-GRADE - TIER-1 VS. SUB-TIER QUALITY
6.6 SUB-TIER SUPPLY CHAIN: SUB-TIER PRECURSOR MARKET RANKING
6.6.1 SEMICONDUCTOR-GRADE SUB-TIER PRECURSOR SUPPLIER NEWS
6.7 METAL PRECURSOR RAW MATERIALS SUPPLY CHAIN CONCERNS
6.7.1 RAW MATERIALS CAPACITY EXPANSIONS
6.8 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: DISRUPTIONS
6.9 SHIFT TO LOCAL INVESTMENT IN THE SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN
6.9.1 SHIFT TO LOCAL INVESTMENT IN THE SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN - IN RARE EARTHS
6.9.2 SHIFT TO LOCAL INVESTMENT IN THE SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN - IN RARE EARTHS EXPANSIONS
6.10 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN EHS AND LOGISTICS ISSUES
6.10.1 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN EHS AND LOGISTICS ISSUES – LISTED MATERIAL TYPE
6.11 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN PLANT CLOSURES – NONE TO DATE
6.12 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN PRICING TRENDS
6.13 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT
7 SUPPLIER PROFILES
ADEKA CORPORATION
AIR LIQUIDE (MAKER, PURIFIER, SUPPLIER)
AZMAX CO., LTD
CITY CHEMICAL LLC
DNF CO., LTD
AND MORE …
8 APPENDIX
8.1 PRECURSOR – LITERATURE SURVEY OF CVD AND ALD PRECURSORS STUDIED FOR SEMICONDUCTOR APPLICATIONS
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List of Tables/Graphs
FIGURES and TABLES
FIGURES
FIGURE 1.1: METAL & HIGH-K PRECURSORS REVENUE FORECAST BY SEGMENT (US $M'S)
FIGURE 1.2: WW MARKET SHARE – METAL & HIGH-K PRECURSORS 2024 (U$ 921 M)
FIGURE 1.3: TOP-5 PUBLIC PRECURSOR MAKERS'QUARTERLY COMBINED SALES
FIGURE 3.1: HISTORICAL AND FORECASTED GDP GROWTH (2000 – 2029)
FIGURE 3.2: GLOBAL ECONOMY AND THE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN (2024)
FIGURE 3.3: WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR SALES ($B)
FIGURE 3.4: TECHCET'S TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY INDEX (TTSI) MOMENTUM TRACKER
FIGURE 3.5: 2024 SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP APPLICATIONS
FIGURE 3.6: SMARTPHONE SHIPMENTS, WW ESTIMATES
FIGURE 3.7: GLOBAL LIGHT VEHICLE PRODUCTION FORECAST (IN MILLIONS OF UNITS)
FIGURE 3.8: US EV RETAIL SHARE FORECAST
FIGURE 3.9: AUTOMOTIVE SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUES HISTORY AND FORECAST (ESTIMATED, B$'S USD)
FIGURE 3.10: AI VALUE FORECAST ($B'S USD)
FIGURE 3.11: SCALE OF TODAY'S AI-CENTRIC DATA CENTERS
FIGURE 3.12: TSMC PHOENIX FAB INVESTMENT TO EXCEED US $65B
FIGURE 3.13: ESTIMATED GLOBAL FAB INVESTMENT 2024-2029 ($858.6B)
FIGURE 3.14: ANNOUNCED PUBLIC STIMULUS AND RESPECTIVE SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP MANUFACTURING REGIONS
FIGURE 3.15: SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN EXPANSIONS WITHIN THE US
FIGURE 3.16: GLOBAL TOTAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING (US$ M)
FIGURE 3.17: TSMC LOGIC ROADMAP BY NODE
FIGURE 3.18: TECHCET WAFER START FORECAST BY NODE SEGMENTS MILLIONS OF 200MM EQUIVALENTS PER YEAR
FIGURE 3.19: TECHCET WORLDWIDE ELECTRONIC MATERIALS FORECAST ($M USD)
FIGURE 4.1: LOGIC WAFER STARTS, SUB 65 NM
FIGURE 4.2: DRAM WAFER STARTS
FIGURE 4.3: HBM STACKING CONFIGURATIONS
FIGURE 4.4: NAND WAFER STARTS
FIGURE 4.5: LAM RESEARCH'S ALTUS(R) HALO
FIGURE 4.6: METAL & HIGH-K PRECURSORS REVENUE FORECAST BY SEGMENT (US$ M'S)
FIGURE 4.7: WW MARKET SHARE – METAL & HIGH-K PRECURSORS 2024 (U$ 921 M)
FIGURE 4.8: METAL & HIGH-K PRECURSOR REVENUE BY REGION
FIGURE 4.9: ADVANCED DEVICE TECHNOLOGY DRIVE DEMAND FOR MORE ALD PRECURSORS
FIGURE 4.10: ADVANCED DEVICE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP – HVM DRAM, INCLUDING RISK STARTS
FIGURE 4.11: ADVANCED DEVICE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP OVERVIEW – HVM 3D NAND, INCLUDING RISK STARTS
FIGURE 4.12: ADVANCED DEVICE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP OVERVIEW – HVM LOGIC/FOUNDRY, INCLUDING RISK STARTS
FIGURE 4.13: SEMS OF LOGIC GATE STRUCTURES 2009 TO BEYOND 2025
FIGURE 4.14: HIGH BANDWIDTH MEMORY (HBM DRAM)
FIGURE 4.15: CAPACITORLESS 3D DRAM
FIGURE 4.16: ADVANCING DRAM (2D TO 3D) ENABLED BY MATERIALS
FIGURE 4.17: SEM CROSS-SECTION (CENTER) OF A 32GB NVDRAM WITH 1T1C MEMORY LAYERS
FIGURE 4.18: SUBTRACTIVE RUTHENIUM (RU) ADVANCEMENT BY INTEL
FIGURE 4.19: DUAL GATED (RU) TFT
FIGURE 4.20: APPLIED MATERIALS ENDURA(TM) COPPER BARRIER SEED IMS(TM) CONCEPT
FIGURE 4.21: CAPACITOR-LESS IGZO-BASED DRAM
FIGURE 4.22: GATE OXIDE FOR SCALED GAA 2D FET
FIGURE 4.23: DRY RESIST PROCESS FLOW AND TEST PATTERN SEM
FIGURE 4.24: NT RESIST PATTERNING & SEM FOR EUV APPLICATIONS
FIGURE 4.25: CVD AND ALD PATENT FILING SINCE 2001 BY COMPANY
FIGURE 4.26: NUMBER OF CVD AND ALD PATENT FILING SINCE 2001
FIGURE 4.27: MAPPING LOCATION OF CVD AND ALD PATENT FILING SINCE 2001
FIGURE 4.28: ENVIRONMENTAL FOOTPRINT OF MOORES LAW - CO2 EMISSIONS (ENERGY CONSUMPTION RAMP OF LEADING EDGE NODES)
FIGURE 4.29: IMPACT OF EUV - ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
FIGURE 4.30: INTEL AND TSMC SUSTAINABILITY GOALS
FIGURE 5.1: TOP-5 PUBLIC PRECURSOR MAKERS'QUARTERLY COMBINED SALES
FIGURE 5.2: AIR LIQUIDE CURRENT QUARTER FINANCIALS
FIGURE 5.3: MERCK CURRENT QUARTER FINANCIALS
FIGURE 5.4: ADEKA CURRENT QUARTER FINANCIALS
FIGURE 5.5: DUPONT CURRENT QUARTER FINANCIALS
FIGURE 6.1: GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS (CRM)
FIGURE 6.2: CHIP FAB MANUFACTURING CAPACITY OF ASIA VS. US 1990-2023
FIGURE 6.3: REE REFINING PROCESS FLOW (I.E., COBALT)
FIGURE 6.4: PRICE TREND IN METALS CONTROLLED BY CHINA
TABLES
TABLE 1.1: REVENUE FORECASTS
TABLE 1.2: ESTIMATED MARKET SHARE BY SUPPLIER
TABLE 3.1: GLOBAL GDP AND SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUES
TABLE 3.2: INITIALLY ANNOUNCED* US RECIPROCAL TARIFF SCHEDULE
TABLE 3.3: WORLDWIDE PC FORECAST BY SEGMENT
TABLE 3.4: IT MARKET SPENDING FORECAST, 2025
TABLE 4.1: REVENUE FORECASTS
TABLE 4.2: ESTIMATED MARKET SHARE BY SUPPLIER – METAL & HIGH-K PRECURSORS
TABLE 4.3: OVERVIEW OF ANNOUNCED 2024/2025 PRECURSOR SUPPLIER INVESTMENTS
TABLE 4.4: TSMC EMBEDDED RERAM CHIPS TECHNOLOGY
TABLE 4.5: SUPPLIERS AND PRECURSORS LISTING
TABLE 4.6: IGZO PRECURSORS AND DEPOSITION APPLICATION
TABLE 4.7: DESCRIPTIONS OF PRECURSOR MARKET DYNAMICS BY REGION
TABLE 4.8: ESG REPORTING BY INDUSTRY LEADERS IN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING
TABLE 6.1: RU PRECURSORS & CAS NUMBER
TABLE 6.2: SUB-TIER PRECURSOR DEMAND SEMICONDUCTOR VS. ELECTRONIC VS. INDUSTRIAL
TABLE 6.3: 2024 SUB-TIER PRECURSOR SUPPLIERS RANKING OF THE TOP 7
TABLE 6.4: CHINA REACTION TO SECTION 232 TARIFFS FOR KEY METALS
TABLE 8.1: 2D METAL PRECURSORS & APPLICATIONS LISTING
TABLE 8.2: METAL PRECURSORS & APPLICATIONS LISTING INVESTIGATED FOR THIS REPORT
Press Release
August 1, 2024
Semiconductor ALD/CVD Precursors Driven by Advanced Applications
Mo, WF6, and Co precursors to see significant growth
San Diego, CA, August 1, 2024:
TECHCET — the advisory firm providing materials market information for semiconductor supply chain resilience — is forecasting semiconductor metal and oxide precursors to reach US$1.7 B in revenues in 2024, rising 15% over 2023. This is the highest growth rate among all front process materials segments. Metal/Metal-oxide precursors occupy the majority of the market with expected revenues at $972 M, while Dielectric Precursors are expected to total US$742 M. The precursor market is forecasted to increase at a 9% CAGR from 2023-2028. More information on market forecasting and trends is included in TECHCET’s new Critical Materials Reports™ on ALD/CVD Precursors.
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Metal and Dielectric Precursor Market Revenue Forecast
Significant investments are being made in advanced process technologies such as GAA FETs, EUV lithography, and high-k/metal gate transistors, all of which are crucial for next-generation Logic, DRAM, and 3D NAND devices. Recovery of precursor revenue growth is being driven by AI and advanced technology applications. Additionally, metallization for backside power delivery at 2nm logic nodes and beyond is also pushing up growth for metal precursors.
Molybdenum (Mo) precursors, specifically MoO2Cl2, are projected to experience high growth due to their favorable electrical properties and application in next-generation devices. Other precursors strongly tied to advanced device nodes include Cobalt precursors (CoCOCp and CCTBA) and Tungsten Hexafluoride (WF6).
The shift towards more sustainable and efficient production methods is influencing the development of new precursors, with a focus on reducing environmental impact and improving manufacturing efficiency.
Major industry players are expanding their production capacities in order to meet growing demand. Companies such as Air Liquide, Merck, and Gelest/Mitsubishi Chemical Group are making significant investments in production facilities in key regions like Taiwan, South Korea, and the US.
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