この調査レポートでは、IDTechExが、ディーゼル車の使用量が減少し、エネルギー貯蔵技術が急速に進歩する中で、バッテリー電気（BEV）および燃料電池（FC）列車に出現するグローバルな機会を評価しています。

 

主な掲載内容（目次より抜粋）

• 電気機関車タイプの概要と市場ドライバー
• ビブ・マルチプルユニット（MU）
• 鉄道用リチウムイオン電池技術＆大型パックサプライヤー
• グリーン水素燃料
• 会社概要

 

Report Summary

Rail networks today already largely consist of electric trains 'tethered' to electric overhead and live rail systems. However, this is not feasible everywhere due to the high infrastructure cost/mile, remote geographic locations, and the practicality of building through tunnels and bridges. For these stretches of track, rail OEMs and operators currently rely on diesel fuel - which is their number two cost. Use of diesel cannot continue forever in any market, and multiple rail OEMs and operators believe the time is now to transition towards zero emission rail technologies.

 

Indeed, the IDTechEx report shows demand for untethered electric trains will increase rapidly over the coming years as rail OEMs seek to reduce high diesel costs and follow broad climate goals such as the Paris Agreement and 'Fit for 55' in Europe. Industry momentum has been building through the rapid advancement of Li-ion battery technology, with systems now capable of reaching the multi mega-watt hour (MWh) level in confined carriage spaces. Systems up to ~14.5MWh are being installed today in the largest trains, known as battery electric (BEV) locomotives, or BELs. In the future, the vast energy requirements of rail will eventually lead to some of the largest traction battery deployments across all electric vehicle markets - potentially beyond 20MWh per train. Improvements in battery energy density and charging technology is expected to increase over the forecast period, but even then, the longest-range requirements will create some opportunities for green hydrogen fuel cells.

 

In this report, IDTechEx assesses the global opportunities emerging for battery-electric (BEV) and fuel cell (FC) trains as diesel use declines and energy storage technologies advance rapidly. Granular 20-year forecasts include train deliveries, battery demand (GWh), fuel cell demand (MW) and market value ($ billion) across locomotives, multiple units, and shunter trains. The cost evolution of railroad batteries, fuel cells and green hydrogen is also explored to assess the long-term feasibility of each solution, drawing from primary research across multiple company interviews.

 

Electric trains: Locomotives, shunters & multiple units

Initial rail electrification will be led by multiple units (MU), which are trains used for passenger operations. BEV MUs are being developed to replace the diesel MUs currently operating between regional and intercity lines. Initial deployments have focused on route lengths of up to around 100km, which requires battery systems comparable to commercial road vehicles today.

 

In the longer term, electrification will be led by locomotives, with adoption timelines provided in the report for mainline locomotives ('locomotives') and shunter locomotives ('shunters'), also known as switchers. Shunters are railyard vehicles used for moving various cars around yards or stations. This sector does not require range and has greater potential for opportunity charging. As a result, there is a wider range of energy storage possibilities, from LTO to typical G/NMC based Li-ion batteries, with analysis in the report.

 

Mainline locomotives are largely commercial & industrial freight trains, although this varies between key electrification regions such as the US, Europe, and China. Locomotives have a larger addressable market than multiple units, and since they are larger and more expensive vehicles, often with long range requirements, they require mega-watt hour battery systems. Locomotives represent the greatest opportunity for the heavy-duty battery supply chain, with battery demand assessed in the report.

 

• Granular 20-year forecasts of FCEV & BEV multiple units BMU/FMU, shunters, locomotives BEL/FEL 2022-2043 (unit sales, battery demand GWh, fuel cell demand GW, US$ billion).
• Historic orders and near-term pipeline data for electric trains by supplier.
• Analysis of primary market drivers and barriers for rail electrification.
• Primary research interviews with rail system suppliers (OEM, battery, fuel cell).
• Technology and cost analysis of energy storage technologies for rail including by battery chemistry, fuel cells/materials and green hydrogen.