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CRL Monthly Review: Passive Electronic Component: Monthly Report:
JANUARY 2021 Review

Report Highlights-

• The raw material price index for passive electronic components increased by another 3.6% in January 2021. This clearly breaches our prior thresholds for a global market price correction and is considered a “Red Flag.”

• Prices for all base metals have increased by 21% from September 2020 to January 2021; and pricing for key precious metals consumed in mass produced passives- palladium and ruthenium are at all-time highs.

• Early reporting by Murata, TDK, Samsung, Walsin and Yageo indicate the global passive component markets grew by 2.5% in the December 2021 quarter and will contract by 8.6% in the March 2021 quarter. The reporting by vendors showed mixed results, with the Japanese vendors showing growth in December and the Chinese and Korean vendors on the index showing declines in December. Data from the aluminum electrolytic capacitor manufacturers will be reported in February and confirm what we believe to be a large increase in demand for aluminum capacitors for electric vehicles and renewable energy systems.

• We now estimate that year over year demand for passive components THROUGH MARCH 2021 QUARTER- will decline five percent (-5%) in dollar value but with high capacitance MLCC showing slight growth of about 3% while all other product lines slow down and register a year-on-year decline.

• REGARDLESS-The outlook for specific markets remains robust for CY 2021. The value of demand for passive components consumed in battery operated vehicles in CY 2021 will increase dramatically and revive old technologies that were almost extinct (Electrical Product Lines).

• The cycle for CY 2021 should mirror that of CY 2011. The data is similar and the anticipation of a global stimulus package is also comparable. The outlook for April 1 2021 to March 31, 2022 should grow by 10% to 20% in value year-on year due to global recovery post pandemic; the advent of the EVx market and the 5G roll out.

• For 2021, full-year, expect market drivers for capacitors, resistors and inductors to include 5G infrastructure deployment, battery operated vehicle production, automotive telematics and driver assist; solid state disc drives for cloud storage; higher performance computing, devices for the Internet of Things, August 2021 Olympics in Japan; Post-Pandemic Revenge Spending; Smartphones; desktop and notebook personal computers and game consoles to support the continuing remote working and learning trend worldwide.. At press time, General Motors announced they would convert all their gasoline power engines to electric propulsion by 2035, which will invigorate the global supply chain for electrical capacitors, resistors and inductors for years to come.