Summary

War in Ukraine - Six Months on and the Conflict is Creating a Global Crisis

Summary

Over six months on from the initial Russian invasion in Ukraine in February 2022, the war remains ongoing with the effects continuing to have a damaging effect. Although Russia had planned a swift invasion this has not materialized due to the unforeseen strength of Ukrainian resistance with front lines having become stationary in recent weeks. As a result, civilians have not been able to return home and those still in Ukraine have limited access to basic facilities such as food, water, and electricity. As of August 2022, there were over six million internally displaced people in addition to the six and a half million refugees who have fled across borders to European neighbors. This situation shows little sign of getting better and instead may only get worse if no end to the war is found.

Key Highlights

- In total, it is estimated by the CIA that over 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed whilst 45,000 have been injured, with Ukrainian figures marginally lower. These heavily depleted forces are spread across a front that totals over 1,000 kilometres. As such, the training of new competent soldiers may be crucial for both sides’ chance of victory due to the current depleted numbers. In Russia, Putin has recently signed a decree boosting the authorised number of combat personnel in the Russian military by 137,000, taking the total up to 1.15 million. Meanwhile, Ukraine has also lost significant numbers but defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, has suggested that the army has 700,000 personnel and over a million police, border guards and gendarmerie.
- Ukraine has historically been a globally significant exporter of grain therefore the war has had severe ramifications globally on food availability and pricing. According to the UN, Ukraine fed 400 million people globally in 2021, yet for the first five months of the war the country could not export through its major black sea shipping routes. As a result, there are now knock-on effects across the world including risk of famine, hunger emergencies, astronomical food prices, and huge government fiscal imbalances across the developing world particularly. The combination of effects from the pandemic, climate change, and now the Ukraine crisis will make the coming year or two particularly tough for a large number of countries.
- A key global concern that has emerged from the Ukraine crisis is the rising energy prices. This will have an effect globally, particularly in Europe. The war in Ukraine war has impacted energy prices due to sanctions on Russia and the dependence, particularly in Europe, on Russian gas as an energy source. Reportedly prices are expected to rise globally in fossil fuels by 50% in 2022 compared to 2021. Going forward, International Crisis Group has argued that there needs to be a focus on renewables in order to help avoid dependence on Russia, in addition to the obvious environmental benefits.

Scope

- View how the Ukraine crisis has become a protracted conflict situation
- Understand the impact the conflict is having on food security
- Understand the impact on energy prices particularly in the UK

Reasons to Buy

- How is the war increasing global food insecurity?
- Which regions are most at risk of food crisis?
- What impact has the war had on European energy prices?

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Table of Contents

Table of Contents
1. OVERVIEW
1.1. Catalyst
1.2. Summary
2. UKRAINE CRISIS HAS BECOME A PROTRACTED CONFLICT SITUATION
2.1. Both sides facing military issues but no sign of the war ending
2.1.1. Ukraine looking to launch a counter offensive whilst Russia is weak
2.2. Despite Putin’s intentions war has united Ukraine
3. WAR IS WORSENING FOOD INSECURITY AND POVERTY GLOBALLY
3.1. Developing countries are particularly at risk from the knock-on effects of the war.
3.2. Sub-Saharan Africa is the region most at risk but there will be a global effect
4. ENERGY PRICES HAVE SOARED CREATING AN ENERGY CRISIS
4.1. Europe’s dependency on Russian gas has created domestic crises amidst rising costs
4.1.1. The UK has particularly felt the impact on rising prices creating cost of living crisis
5. APPENDIX
5.1. Abbreviations and acronyms
5.2. Sources
5.3. Further reading
6. ASK THE ANALYST
7. ABOUT MARKETLINE