Summary
The concept of utilizing private cellular networks or non-public networks (NPN) for the sole use of a private entity such as an enterprise is far from new. In fact, there are thousands of private networks already in service across the globe. Instead, what is new are the technical capabilities now available with both LTE and 5G, providing end users with an ability to deliver performance and reliability guarantees for applications with vastly different requirements. Also, there is a renewed effort to free up spectrum for private applications including local industrial networks. This in combination with the intense marketing push to position 5G as an important connectivity enabler in the enterprise and for Industry 4.0 along with the proliferation of the industrial device ecosystem forms the basis for the elevated interest around private wireless.
Not surprisingly, suppliers and operators are excited because the enterprise is a relatively untapped opportunity from a cellular connectivity perspective.
Ericsson’s 5G Business Potential report suggests that operators have the ability to address an additional revenue opportunity of $0.2 to $0.6 trillion by 2026, which would mark an uplift of about 20% to 60% relative to the current ~$1 trillion baseline for wireless operators. Nokia estimates that there are around 15 M potential industrial sites globally. And per Dell’Oro’s WLAN research, enterprises deployed around 100 M WiFi APs over the past five years.
And perhaps more importantly, the momentum is improving and total private wireless revenues—including wide area network and dedicated local networks—are no longer insignificant. Private wireless RAN revenues are still small relative to overall MBB investments but activity is on the rise, underpinned by new spectrum, an improving device ecosystem, technology improvements, and the emergency of new use cases that require cellular QoS.
While the standard Dell’Oro RAN report includes private wireless RAN systems, the splits are not provided in depth yet with the standard report.
In this report, it is our objective to dig deeper about the private wireless RAN opportunity and assess if this time is any different—is there enough momentum and progress with private wireless to ensure this opportunity will play a significant role in future 4G and 5G rollouts?
The report addresses such questions as:
What is Private Wireless?
Private Wireless has been a hot topic for some time – what is different this time?
What RAN solutions are best tailored for private wireless?
Which technologies are required to take private wireless to the next level?
How will the role of the operators, enterprises, and cloud players change with private wireless?
What is the private RAN opportunity by 2025?
How much of private wireless will be addressed using the existing macro network vs. new local dedicated networks?
What regions will likely be the early adopters?
What industries are more likely to benefit from private wireless over the next five years?
What will be the impact on the network and the market?
The report includes a 5-year forecast for the following areas:
Private Wireless RAN – RF Output Power
Private Wireless RAN – Technology
Private Wireless RAN – Spectrum
Press Release
April 11, 2024 | Press Release
Private Wireless RAN Revenues up ~40 Percent in 2023, According to Dell’Oro Group
Huawei, Nokia, and Ericsson Top Private Wireless RAN Suppliers
REDWOOD CITY, Calif. – April 11, 2024 –
According to a newly published forecast report by Dell’Oro Group, a trusted source for market information about the telecommunications, security networks, and data center industries, Private Wireless Radio Access Network (RAN) revenue growth slowed in the fourth quarter on a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis; however, full-year revenues still accelerated around 40 percent in 2023, propelling private wireless to comprise around 2 percent of the overall RAN market.
“Although public RAN is still fueling the lion’s share of the overall RAN capex and the overall investment levels are tracking below some of the initial projections provided by the vendors in the early part of the 5G enterprise hype cycle, the fact of the matter is that private wireless is now growing at a formidable pace,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “This stands in contrast to public RAN and enterprise WLAN – both segments are projected to contract in 2024,” continued Pongratz.
Additional highlights from the April 2024 Private Wireless Report:
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The evolving scope of private wireless taken together with the fact that the $20 B+ enterprise RAN opportunity remains largely untapped is spurring interest from a broad array of participants across the ecosystem. Still, the traditional RAN suppliers are currently well-positioned in this initial phase.
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Top 3 Private Wireless RAN suppliers in 2023 include Huawei, Nokia, and Ericsson.
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Top 3 Private Wireless RAN suppliers in 2023 excluding China include Nokia, Ericsson, and Samsung.
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The overall Private Wireless RAN forecast is mostly unchanged (+3 percent relative to the last report), reflecting the fact that our bottom-up vendor analysis vs. the initial top-down calculations is improving the market size estimates. In addition, the industry is now past the hype phase and in a better place from a forecasting perspective.
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The high-level message that we have communicated for some time has not changed—private wireless is a massive opportunity, but it will take some time for enterprises to embrace private cellular technologies.
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Total Private Wireless RAN revenues are projected to grow at a 21 percent CAGR over the next five years, while public RAN revenues are set to decline at a 2 percent CAGR over the same time period.
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The underlying technology mix has also not changed. 5G is dominating in China, while LTE is currently dominating outside of China. Private 5G RAN revenues are expected to reach the $1 B to $2 B range by 2028.
About the Report
Dell’Oro Group’s Private Wireless Advanced Research Report includes both quarterly vendor share data and a 5-year forecast for Private Wireless RAN by RF Output Power, technology, spectrum, and region.
