Summary

この調査レポートは、結晶シリコン系太陽電池と薄膜太陽電池、製造設備、原点となるポリシリコンの市場を分析しています。

Crystalline silicon is currently used in over 90% of PV cells. Despite the lower potential cost of emerging thin-film technologies (less material, higher theoretical efficiencies), crystalline silicon is expected to remain the dominant PV technology for at least the next 10 years due to its higher current average efficiency and its greater stability. This report analyzes the market for both crystalline and thin film solar cells, equipment to make them, and polysilicon as a starting point.

Table of contents

Table of Contents

Chapter 1    Introduction    1-1

Chapter 2    Solar Cell Technology    2-1

2.1    Introduction    2.1
2.2    Generations of development    2-2
2.2.1    First Generation    2-2
2.2.2    Second Generation    2-2
2.2.3    Third Generation    2-3
2.3    History    2-12
2.4    Theory of Operation    2-13
2.4.1    Simple explanation    2-13
2.4.2    Photogeneration of charge carriers    2-14
2.4.3    Charge carrier separation    2-15
2.4.4    The p-n junction    2-15
2.4.5    Connection to an external load    2-16
2.4.6    Equivalent circuit of a solar cell    2-16
2.5    Solar cell efficiency factors    2-17
2.5.1    Maximum-power point    2-17
2.5.2    Energy conversion efficiency    2-17
2.5.3    Fill factor    2-18
2.5.4    Quantum efficiency    2-18
2.5.5    Comparison of energy conversion efficiencies    2-18
2.5.5.1    Peak watt (or Watt peak)    2-19
2.5.5.2    Solar cells and energy payback    2-21
2.6    Light-absorbing materials    2-21
2.6.1    Bulk    2-22
2.6.1.1    Silicon    2-22
2.6.2    Thin films    2-23
2.6.2.1    CdTe    2-23
2.6.2.2    CIGS    2-24
2.6.2.3    CIS    2-25
2.6.2.4    Gallium arsenide (GaAs) multijunction    2-25
2.6.2.5    Light absorbing dyes    2-26
2.6.2.6    Organic/polymer solar cells    2-29
2.6.2.7    Silicon Thin Films    2-31
2.6.3    Nanocrystalline solar cells    2-34
2.7    Concentrating photovoltaics (CPV)    2-35
2.7.1    Introduction    2-35
2.7.2    Commercial reflectors    2-38
2.8    Overview of research on materials and devices    2-41
2.8.1    Silicon processing    2-42
2.8.2    Thin-film processing    2-46
2.8.3    Polymer processing    2-46
2.8.4    Nanoparticle processing    2-47
2.8.5    Transparent conductors    2-48
2.8.6    Perovskite Solar Cells    2-50
2.8.7    PERC (Passivated Emitter And Rear Cell)    2-51

Chapter 3    Solar Cell Manufacturing    3-1

3.1    Introduction    3-1
3.2    How Solar Cells Are Made    3-1
3.2.1    Silicon Solar Cell    3-6
3.2.2    Etching And Texturing    3-10
3.2.3    Diffusion And Edge Isolation    3-10
3.2.4    Anti-Reflection Coating    3-11
3.2.5    Metallization    3-11

Chapter 4    Thin Film Technology    4-1

4.1    Introduction    4-1
4.2    Silicon Deposition Technologies    4-3
4.2.1    Amorphous Silicon Deposition    4-3
4.2.2    Microcrystalline Silicon Deposition    4-5
4.3    Compound Semiconductor Deposition Technologies    4-9
4.3.1    Introduction    4-9
4.3.2    CdTe - Cadmium Telluride    4-17
4.3.3    CIGS - Copper Indium Gallium Selenide    4-24
4.3.4    GaAs - Gallium Arsenide    4-32
4.3.5    Perovskite    4-35

Chapter 5    Solar Markets    5-1

5.1    Introduction    5-1
5.2    Key Growth Drivers    5-3
5.2.1    Government Incentives    5-3
5.2.2    Low Cost Solar    5-5
5.2.3    Large Market Among Underserved Populations    5-5
5.3    Challenges Facing The Solar Power Industry    5-6
5.4    Cost Of A Photovoltaic System    5-7
5.5    Operating Metrics Of A Photovoltaic System    5-9
5.6    Types Of PV System    5-10
5.6.1    Grid Connected Sector    5-10
5.6.2    Off-Grid Sector    5-11
5.6.3    Market Development    5-12
5.7    Market Analysis    5-14
5.7.1    Solar Cell Market    5-14
5.7.2    Polysilicon Solar Cell Market    5-47
5.7.2.1    Wire Saw Wafering Technology    5-59
5.7.2.2    Kerfless Wafering    5-62
5.7.3    Thin Film Solar Cell Market    5-69
5.7.3.1    Driving Forces    5-69
5.7.3.2    Competing Technologies    5-75
5.7.3.3    Third-Generation Technologies    5-80
5.7.4    Thin Film Solar Cell Equipment Market    5-86
5.7.5    Substrates    5-86
5.7.6    Manufacturing Costs    5-90
5.8    Disruptive Technologies    5-96

List of Figures

2.1    Light Absorption Through Layers In A Multijunction Cell    2-5
2.2    Triple Junction a-Si/a-SiGe/a-SiGe Cell Structure    2-6
2.3    A Two-Junction Amorphous-Silicon Solar Cell    2-7
2.4    Solar Cell Technology Roadmap    2-9
2.5    Best Research-Cell Efficiencies    2-20
2.6    Dye Sensitized Solar Cell Schematic    2-28
2.7    Bulk Heterojunction Solar Cell    2-30
2.8    Schematic Of Sliver Cell    2-44
3.1    Diagram Of Solar Cell    3-2
3.2    Cross Section Of A Solar Cell Under Illumination    3.3
3.3    Conventional vs PERC Processing    3-5
3.4    Polysilicon Manufacturing And Supply Chain    3-9
4.1    Sharp’s Triple-Junction Solar Cell    4-6
4.2    Factory Flow For 20 MW/Year CGS Facility    4-4
4.3    Schematic Of CdTe And CIGS Device Structures    4-14
4.4    CdTe Thin Film Deposition By VTD    4-20
4.5    CdTe Thin Film Deposition By Close Space Sublimation (CSS) Schematic    4-21
4.6    CdTe Thin Film Deposition By VTD2    4-23
4.7    CIGS Deposition System By Evaporation    4-26
4.8    Cross-Sectional Schematic Diagram Of The InGaP/InGaAs/Ge ATJ Cell    4-34
4.9    Cross-Sectional Schematic Diagram Of a Perovskite Cell    4-36
5.1    Cost Projections of Solar Panels    5-8
5.2    Evolution Of Global Annual Installations    5-15
5.3    Solar Vendor Market Shares - 2000    5-19
5.4    Solar Vendor Market Shares - 2001    5-20
5.5    Solar Vendor Market Shares - 2002    5-21
5.6    Solar Vendor Market Shares - 2003    5-22
5.7    Solar Vendor Market Shares - 2004    5-23
5.8    Solar Vendor Market Shares - 2005    5-24
5.9    Solar Vendor Market Shares - 2006    5-25
5.10    Solar Vendor Market Shares - 2007    5-26
5.11    Solar Vendor Market Shares - 2008    5-27
5.12    Solar Vendor Market Shares - 2009    5-28
5.13    Solar Vendor Market Shares - 2010    5-29
5.14    Solar Vendor Market Shares - 2011    5-30
5.15    Solar Vendor Market Shares - 2012    5-31
5.16    Solar Vendor Market Shares - 2013    5-32
5.17    Solar Vendor Market Shares - 2014    5-33
5.18    Solar Vendor Market Shares - 2015    5-34
5.19    Solar Vendor Market Shares - 2016    5-35
5.20    Solar Cell Production by Region - 2016    5-37
5.21    Solar Cell Forecast - 2010-2020    5-38
5.22    Solar Cell Production By Type    5-39
5.23    Thin Film Solar Cell Production By Type - 2010-2020    5-41
5.24    Polysilicon Production And Consumption (MT)    5-51
5.25    Polysilicon Sales by Region    5-52
5.26    China Polysilicon Imports    5-54
5.27    Kerfless Wafering    5-67
5.28    Best Research-Cell Efficiencies    5-76
5.29    Schematic Diagrams Of Thin-Film CdTe, CIGS, and a-Si Thin Film P Devices    5-77
5-30    Thin Film Solar Cell Power As A Percentage Of Total Solar Power - 2005 2020    5-84
5-31    Thin Film Solar Cell Power As A Percentage Of Total Solar Power - 2003 2020    5-85
5.32    Schematic Thin-Film Roll-To-Roll Equipment    5-66

List of Tables

3.1    Polysilicon Capacity Forecast    3-7
4.1    Thin Film CIGS Solar Cells Efficiencies    4-11
4.2    Highest Efficiencies PV Modules    4-13
5.1    Top 10 Solar Manufacturers By Shipments - 2015-2016    5-18
5.3    Market Share Of Solar Cells By Technology - 2008-2020    5-40
5.4    Polysilicon Production Capacities By Company - 2010-2017    5-48
5.5    Polysilicon Supply/Demand Forecast - 2013-2020    5-50
5.6    Wafering Technology Forecast    5-62
5.7    Wire Saw Companies    5-63
5.8    Saw Wire and Diamond Wire Companies    5-64
5.9    CdTe Thin Film Solar Cell Producers    5-71
5.10    CIGS Thin Film Solar Cell Producers    5-72
5.11    3G Thin Film Solar Cell Producers    5-74
5.12    CIGS Manufacturers and Deposition Methods    5-88
5.13    Cost Comparison Of Thin Film Technologies    5-91
5.14    Number Of Solar Equipment And Materials Companies - Chinese, U.S. Other    5-93
5.15    Top Non-Chinese Equipment Supplier Revenues    5-95