Summary

Carbonated Soft Drinks Market Analysis

According to Mordor Intelligence, the carbonated soft drink market size is projected to be USD 331.93 billion in 2025, USD 336.04 billion in 2026, and reach USD 439.84 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 5.53% from 2026 to 2031. This report is Segmented by Product Type (Regular, Diet, Zero-Sugar, and More), Flavor (Cola, Lemon and Lime, Berry, and Other Flavors), Packaging Type (PET Bottles, Cans, and Other Packaging Types), Distribution Channel (Foodservice and Retail), and Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, South America, and Middle East and Africa). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Global Carbonated Soft Drinks Market Trends and Insights

Premiumization of low and zero sugar carbonates

Major portfolios have shifted their focus, with zero-sugar and reduced-calorie carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) now serving as the primary value drivers. The premium pricing of these variants is significantly shaping the overall revenue mix of the segment. In Q1 2026, Pepsi Zero Sugar not only gained traction but also saw an uptick in both volume and value shares within the CSD category. Meanwhile, in February 2026, Coca-Cola Zero Sugar made headlines by integrating into flavored sub-lines, such as Cherry Float, signaling a strategic pivot. The brand's core architecture is now being restructured, positioning zero-sugar as the primary growth driver, overshadowing the traditional full-calorie variant. A 2025 study in BMC Public Health highlighted the impact of tiered soft drink taxes in France, Portugal, and the UK. The research noted tangible reductions in average sugar content, with the UK leading the charge, achieving a notable drop of about 1.7 grams of sugar per 100 ml. This suggests that companies in taxed regions are not just complying but are also enhancing their reformulation processes. They're establishing systems for sweetener sourcing, flavor masking, and labeling, which are then effectively utilized in markets without such taxes. This indicates a broader trend: the premiumization of zero-sugar variants is transcending its initial regulatory confines. Furthermore, evolving compliance measures, like the EU's nutrition labeling and front-of-pack health claims, are shaping the narrative around zero-sugar products, bolstering their clear-label appeal.

Expansion of foodservice fountain and on-the-go consumption

Fountain dispensers and single-serve portable formats are broadening the occasions for daily consumption of carbonated soft drinks (CSDs), extending beyond traditional grocery and home settings. This shift is generating an additional volume layer that doesn't directly compete with packaged retail. In Canada, the 12 months leading up to December 2025 saw a 6% year-on-year increase in fountain soft drink purchases, predominantly driven by quick-service restaurants. PepsiCo's Q1 2026 investor report highlighted growth in both volume and net revenue for its away-from-home segment. This boost was largely thanks to enhanced brand placements via its DRIPS by Pepsi platform, notably in chains like Saucy! by KFC. A significant trend is emerging: fountain channels are evolving into experimental platforms. Limited-edition flavors are first introduced through dispensers, allowing companies to assess consumer interest before committing to packaged retail SKUs. This approach effectively trims down the costs associated with innovation. In January 2026, Coca-Cola rolled out 7.5-oz mini cans in convenience stores, pricing them individually at USD 1.29. This strategy not only taps into the impulse snack-and-drink market but also encourages trials among consumers hesitant to buy multi-packs.

Sugar tax drag in high-consumption markets

As of 2025, the WHO's annual report on sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxation reveals that over 100 jurisdictions worldwide have enacted such taxes. These measures are noticeably curbing the volume of full-calorie carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) in many of the globe's top-consuming markets. In South Africa, the Health Promotion Levy led to a 33% drop in sugar consumption from taxed beverages just two years post-implementation. However, this was somewhat countered by a 15% uptick in consumption of non-taxable SSBs. This trend underscores that while fiscal measures can dampen demand for CSDs, they don't entirely eradicate it. For brand operators, this presents a strategic insight: tiered levy structures introduce a price ladder effect, hastening the shift of consumers towards premium zero-sugar options. This shift occurs at a speed that marketing efforts alone might find challenging, thereby shortening the window for managing the lifecycle of full-calorie SKUs. Moreover, a less frequently highlighted outcome is that investments funded by the levy, like reformulations, new sweetener systems, and adjustments to production lines, create sunk-cost barriers. These barriers nudge brands towards permanent reformulations instead of mere compliance. Furthermore, with ongoing regulatory pressures from governments and health frameworks aligned with the WHO, markets that once sidestepped SSB levies are now feeling the heightened political costs of resisting their adoption.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Flavor localization and limited-edition rotations
2. Returnable and refillable packaging economics in emerging markets
3. Volume erosion from still water, RTD tea, and functional beverages

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

In 2025, Regular Carbonated Soft Drinks commanded a dominant 56.71% market share, underscoring the continued prominence of full-calorie formats and dispelling notions of a structural decline in the category. Meanwhile, Zero-Sugar Carbonated Soft Drinks emerged as the frontrunner, boasting a robust 6.96% CAGR from 2026 to 2031. This growth, outpacing the broader market, is attributed to strategic portfolio shifts by industry leaders and a clear consumer tilt towards reduced-calorie choices. Highlighting this trend, PepsiCo's Q1 2026 investor insights revealed a surge in both volume and value share for Pepsi Zero Sugar within the CSD realm. Concurrently, Coca-Cola's strategic emphasis on zero-sugar variants in its Cherry lineup underscores a collective industry pivot, with both giants heavily investing in this burgeoning sub-category.

Diet Carbonated Soft Drinks are navigating a pivotal shift: as consumers grow wary of artificial sweeteners, there's a marked shift in new product investments. Instead of the traditional "diet" label, brands are gravitating towards "zero-sugar" branding, offering the same low-calorie appeal but shedding the negative associations tied to sweeteners. While Functional Carbonated Soft Drinks currently occupy the smallest volume segment, their unique positioning at the crossroads of refreshment and wellness, highlighted by PepsiCo's Pepsi Prebiotic Cola and the poppi acquisition, commands a premium value-per-unit, outstripping all other sub-segments. However, as the EU's nutrition labeling reforms and health-claim restrictions in various markets shape the narrative around functional claims, navigating these regulatory waters becomes paramount for any launch strategy in this sub-segment.

From 2026 to 2031, berry flavors are set to be the fastest-growing sub-segment, expanding at a CAGR of 6.11%. Their rise is fueled by younger consumers gravitating towards vibrant, non-traditional tastes. Additionally, these flavors seamlessly align with zero-sugar formulations, where their intensity compensates for the lack of full-calorie sweetness. In 2025, cola commanded a dominant 43.62% share of the flavor segment, a position bolstered by decades of brand equity and a distribution scale that newer flavors find hard to match profitably. Yet, this supremacy faces challenges as brands increasingly integrate cherry and berry sub-variants into their core offerings. PepsiCo's Q1 2026 results spotlighted Pepsi Wild Cherry's robust growth, underscoring its contributions to both volume and value shares. Meanwhile, Coca-Cola's February 2026 expansion of its multi-SKU Cherry portfolio signals a shared vision: both giants view these berry-adjacent flavors as a fundamental evolution of the cola experience, rather than mere niche additions.

Lemon and lime flavors, while holding a steady secondary position, benefit from their status as restaurant fountain staples. Their resemblance to sparkling water profiles offers them a buffer against the encroachment of non-carbonated substitutes. Meanwhile, the "Other Flavors" category, which includes tropical, root beer, spiced, and seasonal variants, is capitalizing on a limited-edition rotation strategy. A prime example is PepsiCo's June 2026 launch of MUG Root Beer Floats Vanilla Howler, blending a classic American soda flavor with a trendy 'dirty soda' aesthetic, showcasing the industry's knack for weaving cultural food trends into carbonated concepts.

Complete Report Scope:

• Product Type
  • Regular Carbonated Soft Drinks
  • Diet Carbonated Soft Drinks
  • Zero-Sugar Carbonated Soft Drinks
  • Functional Carbonated Soft Drinks
• Flavor
  • Cola
  • Lemon and Lime
  • Berry
  • Other Flavors
• Packaging Type
  • PET Bottles
  • Cans
  • Other Packaging Types
• Distribution Channel
  • Foodservice
  • Retail
    • Supermarkets/Hypermarkets
    • Convenience Stores
    • Online Retail
    • Other Distribution Channels
• Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
    • Rest of North America
  • Europe
    • United Kingdom
    • Germany
    • France
    • Italy
    • Spain
    • Sweden
    • Belgium
    • Poland
    • Netherlands
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia-Pacific
    • China
    • Japan
    • India
    • Thailand
    • Singapore
    • Indonesia
    • South Korea
    • Australia
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Colombia
    • Peru
    • Chile
    • Rest of South America
  • Middle East and Africa
    • United Arab Emirates
    • South Africa
    • Saudi Arabia
    • Nigeria
    • Egypt
    • Morocco
    • Turkey
    • Rest of Middle East and Africa

Geography Analysis

In 2025, North America commanded a dominant 36.40% share of the carbonated soft drink market, solidifying its status as the leading regional player. The region enjoys robust per-capita consumption rates, bolstered by the daily integration of convenience stores and quick-service restaurants into consumers' beverage purchasing habits. While the North American carbonated soft drink market sees growth, it's more about refining mixes than broadening volumes, with zero-sugar extensions outpacing traditional offerings. Keurig Dr. Pepper's transaction completion with JDE Peet's in April 2026, coupled with its strategic pivot towards a North American refreshment focus, underscores the region's allure for strategic capital and heightened competitive attention. Canada's strong fountain culture and Mexico's emphasis on refillable packaging, bolstering affordability and local bottling systems, further cement North America's beverage significance.

Europe stands as a pivotal revenue hub for the carbonated soft drink market, yet it's intricately influenced by taxation, packaging regulations, and a pronounced divide between premium zero-sugar and value full-calorie purchases. A 2025 study by BMC Public Health highlighted the impact of tiered taxes in the UK, France, and Portugal, noting a reduction in average sugar content, with the UK leading at a drop of 1.7 grams per 100 ml. This underscores the direct influence of tax structures on product formulation. Germany, Italy, and France emerge as key volume centers, while the region's policy trajectory nudges producers towards recycled content, refillable systems, and comprehensive packaging compliance. Thus, Europe's carbonated soft drink market is as much a product of regulatory shifts and packaging economics as it is of flavor and brand dynamics.

Asia-Pacific is set to lead the carbonated soft drink market with a projected CAGR of 6.58% from 2026 to 2031. Japan's Soft Drink Association highlighted a record-setting domestic sale of carbonated drinks at JPY 4.73 trillion (USD 31.3 billion) in 2024, showcasing the harmonious advance of premiumization and value demand. With their youthful demographics, increasing urbanization, and enhanced access to convenience, India and Southeast Asia present the most promising volume growth opportunities. South America, particularly in nations like Brazil, Colombia, and Argentina, leverages refillable bottle systems to maintain affordability, granting local leaders a structural cost edge. While the Middle East and Africa remain smaller players, they're bolstered by the expansion of quick-service restaurants. South Africa's experience with sugar levies reshaping beverage formulation and demand in major urban markets further highlights the region's evolving dynamics.

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

1. The Coca-Cola Company
2. PepsiCo, Inc.
3. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
4. Monster Beverage Corporation
5. Suntory Beverage and Food Limited
6. Britvic plc
7. Refresco Group B.V.
8. Arca Continental, S.A.B. de C.V.
9. Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V.
10. Parle Agro Private Limited
11. National Beverage Corp.
12. Jones Soda Co.
13. Postobón S.A.
14. Anadolu Grubu A.S.
15. Asahi Soft Drinks Co., Ltd.
16. Red Bull GmbH
17. Nestlé S.A.
18. SodaStream International Ltd.
19. Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Inc.
20. Faygo Beverages, Inc.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

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Table of Contents

1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
1.2 Scope of the Study

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET LANDSCAPE
4.1 Market Overview
4.2 Market Drivers
4.2.1 Premiumization of Low and Zero Sugar Carbonates
4.2.2 Expansion of Foodservice Fountain and On-The-Go Consumption
4.2.3 Flavor Localization and Limited-Edition Rotations
4.2.4 Returnable and Refillable Packaging Economics in Emerging Markets
4.2.5 Convenience-Oriented Consumption Patterns
4.2.6 Advancements in Packaging Technologies
4.3 Market Restraints
4.3.1 Sugar Tax Drag in High-Consumption Markets
4.3.2 Volume Erosion From Still Water, RTD Tea, and Functional Beverages
4.3.3 Aluminum Can and PET Cost Volatility
4.3.4 Retail Shelf Rationalization Against Lower-Margin Carbonates
4.4 Value Chain Analysis
4.5 Regulatory Landscape
4.6 Technological Outlook
4.7 Porter’s Five Forces
4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUE)
5.1 Product Type
5.1.1 Regular Carbonated Soft Drinks
5.1.2 Diet Carbonated Soft Drinks
5.1.3 Zero-Sugar Carbonated Soft Drinks
5.1.4 Functional Carbonated Soft Drinks
5.2 Flavor
5.2.1 Cola
5.2.2 Lemon and Lime
5.2.3 Berry
5.2.4 Other Flavors
5.3 Packaging Type
5.3.1 PET Bottles
5.3.2 Cans
5.3.3 Other Packaging Types
5.4 Distribution Channel
5.4.1 Foodservice
5.4.2 Retail
5.4.2.1 Supermarkets/Hypermarkets
5.4.2.2 Convenience Stores
5.4.2.3 Online Retail
5.4.2.4 Other Distribution Channels
5.5 Geography
5.5.1 North America
5.5.1.1 United States
5.5.1.2 Canada
5.5.1.3 Mexico
5.5.1.4 Rest of North America
5.5.2 Europe
5.5.2.1 United Kingdom
5.5.2.2 Germany
5.5.2.3 France
5.5.2.4 Italy
5.5.2.5 Spain
5.5.2.6 Sweden
5.5.2.7 Belgium
5.5.2.8 Poland
5.5.2.9 Netherlands
5.5.2.10 Rest of Europe
5.5.3 Asia-Pacific
5.5.3.1 China
5.5.3.2 Japan
5.5.3.3 India
5.5.3.4 Thailand
5.5.3.5 Singapore
5.5.3.6 Indonesia
5.5.3.7 South Korea
5.5.3.8 Australia
5.5.3.9 Rest of Asia-Pacific
5.5.4 South America
5.5.4.1 Brazil
5.5.4.2 Argentina
5.5.4.3 Colombia
5.5.4.4 Peru
5.5.4.5 Chile
5.5.4.6 Rest of South America
5.5.5 Middle East and Africa
5.5.5.1 United Arab Emirates
5.5.5.2 South Africa
5.5.5.3 Saudi Arabia
5.5.5.4 Nigeria
5.5.5.5 Egypt
5.5.5.6 Morocco
5.5.5.7 Turkey
5.5.5.8 Rest of Middle East and Africa

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
6.1 Market Concentration
6.2 Strategic Moves
6.3 Market Ranking Analysis
6.4 Company Profiles
6.4.1 The Coca-Cola Company
6.4.2 PepsiCo, Inc.
6.4.3 Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
6.4.4 Monster Beverage Corporation
6.4.5 Suntory Beverage and Food Limited
6.4.6 Britvic plc
6.4.7 Refresco Group B.V.
6.4.8 Arca Continental, S.A.B. de C.V.
6.4.9 Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V.
6.4.10 Parle Agro Private Limited
6.4.11 National Beverage Corp.
6.4.12 Jones Soda Co.
6.4.13 Postobón S.A.
6.4.14 Anadolu Grubu A.S.
6.4.15 Asahi Soft Drinks Co., Ltd.
6.4.16 Red Bull GmbH
6.4.17 Nestlé S.A.
6.4.18 SodaStream International Ltd.
6.4.19 Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Inc.
6.4.20 Faygo Beverages, Inc.

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK