Summary

Humanoid Robots 2025-2035: Technologies, Markets and Opportunities

 

10-year humanoid robot market forecasts for key automotive and logistics industry, 10-year market forecast of humanoids components (batteries, actuators, motors, screws, sensors, etc.). Key players, news and timeline, adoption barriers.

 

Humanoid robots are widely regarded as "Artificial Intelligence Embodied in the Real World," especially following the surge in AI advancements like ChatGPT over the past two years. From IDTechEx's research and analysis, the market has seen a surge in interest, with significant investments from flowing into leading startups such as Apptronik, Agility Robotics, Unitree, and Figure.AI. Further, massive players such as Tesla, Xiaomi, and Meta have also announced plans of getting into the humanoid robotics space.

 

IDTechEx's report, "Humanoid Robots 2025-2035: Technology, Market, and Opportunity," offers an in-depth technical analysis at the component level, covering actuators, motors, reducers, screws, bearings, cameras, LiDAR, radar, ultrasonic sensors, tactile sensors, AI-driven software, batteries, high-performance materials, and end effectors. This report provides a comprehensive look at the technologies, existing humanoid robots, design and manufacturing challenges, business and regulatory hurdles, and future market potential for humanoid robots, with a particular focus on opportunities in the automotive and logistics industries.

 

Key insights from the report include:

• A 10-year market size forecast for humanoid robots, segmented by the automotive and logistics/warehousing industries.
• A 10-year volume/unit forecast for humanoid robots across these industries.
• A 10-year market size forecast for humanoid robot hardware components, including actuators, motors, reducers, screws, bearings, cameras, LiDAR, radar, ultrasonic sensors, tactile sensors, batteries, and high-performance materials.
• A 10-year volume forecast for humanoid robot hardware components.
• A 10-year energy capacity (GWh) forecast for humanoid robot batteries.
• A 10-year forecast of the average selling price (ASP) of humanoid robots.

 

Industrial Applications: Automotive and Warehousing/Logistics

As of 2025, despite significant hype around humanoid robots, there are still limited real-world applications where they fit in. While many OEMs market their humanoid robots as general-purpose machines, IDTechEx split the target use cases into two categories, including: industrial and non-industrial applications.

 

Industrial humanoid robots, such as Tesla Optimus, Agility Robotics' Digit, and UBTech's Walker S, are typically heavier and equipped with larger battery packs, whereas non-industrial humanoids, like Unitree's G1, are more lightweight and designed for research or light-duty tasks with lower force/torque requirements.

 

Among industrial applications, the automotive and logistics/warehousing sectors have attracted the most interest. In the short to mid-term (before 2030), the automotive industry is expected to lead humanoid adoption, driven by factors such as the historic success of automation, large-scale production demands, and stronger cost negotiation power due to the big volume needed. Several automotive OEMs are already developing their own humanoid robots, including Tesla, Xiaomi, and XPeng. With well-established supply chains that overlap significantly with humanoid robotics, car manufacturers can leverage existing resources to reduce costs.

 

Tesla has announced plans to produce 5,000 Optimus robots, with potential scaling to 12,000 units based on production and supply chain readiness. BYD aims to deploy 1,500 humanoid robots in 2025, with a target of scaling up to 20,000 by 2026. Other leading automotive players, such as Mercedes-Benz (partnering with Apptronik) and BMW (collaborating with Figure.AI on Figure 02), are also making strides in humanoid robotics. Despite some targets seeming very aggressive and slightly unrealistic given the current supply chain status, investments and rapid developments highlight the industry's confidence in the future potential of humanoid robots.

 

However, as of 2025, humanoids in the automotive sector are still in the early pilot testing phase, primarily performing basic tasks like badge labeling, material handling, and inspection. IDTechEx analysts anticipate that by 2026-2027, humanoid robots will start operating for specific use cases, gradually expanding to more complex tasks between 2028 and 2033. This also means that general-purposed humanoid robots in other non-industrial area, such as healthcare, are even further away.

 

The logistics and warehousing industry also show promise for humanoid adoption, though progress has been slower. As of early 2025, IDTechEx has observed only a limited number of pilot projects, with fewer than 100 humanoids deployed in warehouses. Given that warehouse testing typically takes about 18 to 30 months, large-scale adoption (thousands of units) is unlikely before end of 2025. Additionally, warehouse operators must evaluate the return on investment and payback period for humanoid robots-an aspect still under assessment due to limited real-world deployments. With these reasons, IDTechEx believes that 2026-2027 would be the time that humanoids in logistics start taking off, primarily due to the proven successes from humanoids in the automotive industry.

 

Nonetheless, IDTechEx suggests that if humanoid robot prices drop to around US$20,000 and they can efficiently transport goods and perform basic pick-and-place tasks, interest could increase. Currently, achieving the same functionality with an autonomous mobile robot (AMR) or automated guided vehicle (AGV) combined with a robotic arm would cost significantly more than US$20,000, making humanoid robots a more attractive alternative to combine these two functions together.

Component Challenges: Cost and Technical Hurdles

•  Battery capacity limitations, resulting in short operational times and high downtime.
•  Production bottlenecks, such as the low volume of high-precision screws slowing down humanoid robot scaling.
•  Dexterous hand development, requiring advanced tactile sensors to perform delicate tasks with precision.

Conclusion

Key Aspects

•  Current task and industry of humanoid robots, including automotive industry and warehousing/logistics industry
•  General overview of important technologies within each sector
•  Benchmarking and analysis of different humanoid robot players

•  Technical analysis and challenges of components, including actuators, motors, reducers, screws, bearing, cameras, LiDAR, radar, and ultrasonic sensors, tactile sensors, software and AI, battery, high-performance materials, and arm effectors
•  Cost analysis of different components
•  Design and manufacturing challenges
•  Regulatory challenges
•  Future trends of critical components and key technologies to be used

•  Reviews of humanoid robot players throughout the automotive industry and the logistics/warehousing industry
•  Historic humanoid robot market data from 2023 to 2024
•  Cost forecast of humanoid robot from 2025-2035.
•  Market size and adoption volume forecasts from 2025-2035 for the automotive industry and logistics/warehousing industry
•  Market size and adoption volume forecasts from 2025-2035 for main components used in humanoids, including actuators, motors, reducers, screws, bearing, cameras, LiDAR, radar, and ultrasonic sensors, tactile sensors, software and AI, battery, high-performance materials, and arm effectors
•  Battery capacity forecast from 2025-2035 for humanoid robots

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Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2. INTRODUCTION

3. MAJOR CUSTOMERS AND USE CASES

4. DESIGN, MANUFACTURING, AND COMMERCIAL CHALLENGES

5. COMPONENT LEVEL ANALYSIS

6. MARKET FORECASTS AND FUTURE TRENDS

7. PROFILES