Summary

Cashew Market Analysis

According to Mordor Intelligence, the cashew market size is expected to grow from USD 9.9 billion in 2025 to USD 10.57 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 14.64 billion by 2031 at 6.74% CAGR over 2026-2031. This report is Segmented by Form (In-Shell and Shelled) and by Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, South America, and More). The Report Includes Production Analysis (Volume), Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume), Export Analysis (Value and Volume), Import Analysis (Value and Volume), and Price Trend Analysis. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD) and Volume (Metric Tons).

Global Cashew Market Trends and Insights

Rising Consumption of Cashew Nuts as a Healthy Snack

Global disposable income growth and increasing awareness of wellness are driving tree-nut snacking into mainstream retail markets. China’s tree-nut intake is rising 5% a year, with per-capita use forecast to reach 1 kilogram by 2030, nearly double 2023 levels . United States and European retailers favor cashews for their creamy taste, spurring steady shelf turnover and allowing certified organic kernels to earn 15-20% premiums. Indian cities mirror the trend as disposable income rises, tightening global kernel inventories and underpinning robust price floors. These demand shifts reinforce positive momentum for the cashew commodity market.

Increasing Government Incentives for Tree-Nut Cultivation

West African governments are rolling out fertilizer subsidies, seedling distribution, and farm-gate price floors to lift smallholder incomes and diversify export baskets. Farm-gate price floors in Côte d’Ivoire climbed 7% year on year in 2025, and India’s National Horticulture Mission channels subsidized seedlings and credit to new orchards. Burkina Faso likewise raised its minimum purchase price to 385 CFA francs (USD 0.63) per kilogram to encourage production. Such policies extend planting into underutilized savannas and add long-term lift to raw-nut supply.

Climate Volatility in Key West African Belts

Rainfall in Côte d’Ivoire’s Zanzan region fell 112 mm since the 1990s while heat days climbed 17%, reducing nut set and driving raw-nut prices from USD 1,000 to USD 1,500 per ton during the 2024 shortfall. Average rainfall in Côte d’Ivoire’s Zanzan zone fell 112 millimeters between 1981 and 2020, while heat days above 35 °C increased 17%, cutting nut set and driving raw-nut prices from USD 1,000 to USD 1,500 per metric ton during the 2024 shortfall. Limited adoption of mulching and shade trees leaves yields exposed and magnifies supply risk for processors.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Expanding Vegan and Flexitarian Food-Processing Demand
2. Mechanized Shelling Boosting Kernel Recovery Rates
3. Stringent Food-Quality and Pesticide-Residue Regulations

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

The shelled (kernels) segment accounted for 43.5% of the cashew market share in 2025, converting raw nuts into high-margin whole whites for export snack channels. Vietnamese and Indian processors moved more than USD 5.8 billion in kernel exports last year, underscoring the economic gravity of ready-to-eat grades in the cashew commodity market. Deepening mechanization raised average kernel recovery rates from 48% to 52%, which in turn lifted the cashew commodity market size captured by processors even when raw-nut arrivals fluctuated. The segment also benefits from Vietnam’s proximity to Cambodian supply, where an outlay of USD 1.0 billion on raw nuts in 2024 kept factories fed and export contracts intact. Stable demand in the United States, Germany, and the Netherlands provided a predictable off-take that anchors processor investment plans.

In-shell cashews delivered the fastest trajectory with an 10.95% CAGR outlook through 2031, supported by direct-to-consumer online retailers that highlight freshness and minimal processing. Start-ups in the North American and European markets hand-cracked products that command a 25% price premium over equivalent kernel weights. Burkina Faso’s 2025 export ban on raw nuts may tighten global in-shell supply in the near term, motivating artisan roasters to establish forward contracts with Ghanaian and Nigerian farmers. Increased interest in home roasting and transparent sourcing places in-shell offerings in the spotlight, reshaping product portfolios for distributors who once depended solely on processed kernels. Together, these dynamics indicate that processors and growers able to toggle between in-shell and kernel sales stand to optimize revenues across demand cycles, reinforcing resilience within the broader cashew market.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Geography (Production Analysis (Volume), Consumption Analysis (Volume and Value), Import Analysis (Volume and Value), Export Analysis (Volume and Value), and Price Trend Analysis)
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Peru
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • United Kingdom
    • Netherlands
    • France
    • Spain
  • Asia-Pacific
    • India
    • Vietnam
    • China
    • Indonesia
    • Philippines
    • Australia
    • Thailand
  • Middle East
    • United Arab Emirates
    • Turkey
    • Saudi Arabia
    • Oman
  • Africa
    • Côte d'Ivoire
    • Tanzania
    • Nigeria
    • Ghana
    • Mozambique

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific holds 61.90% of global output in 2025, and the region’s cashew market size is forecast to expand at a 7.18% CAGR through 2031. India’s 782,000 metric tons harvest feeds both a rapid 7% annual rise in domestic snacking and large kernel shipments into the United States' natural-foods aisle. Vietnam processed 347,634 metric tons, previously importing nearly 790,000 metric tons from Cambodia, Guinea-Bissau, and Tanzania to keep its high-capacity plants running. Mechanized shelling lines in Binh Phuoc recently reached throughputs of 20 metric tons per day, enabling processors to preserve competitive freight terms even after a 9% wage climb. Chinese demand forms an additional pillar, per-capita nut consumption is on the path to hit 1 kilogram by 2030, nearly doubling the 2023 baseline.

The Middle East will log the highest regional import growth at 7.25% CAGR as Gulf consumers migrate toward premium nut-based snacks and plant-based milk. New roasting facilities in Dubai and Riyadh have contracted multi-year supply agreements with Indian exporters to guarantee year-round inventory. North America relies almost entirely on imports, and the 46% tariff on Vietnamese kernels has already redirected procurement toward India and West Africa, keeping the cashew commodity market fluid. Europe advances at 4.15% CAGR on robust demand for fair-trade and organic labels, with Germany operating as a continental hub through Hamburg and Rotterdam ports. Combined, these regional storylines show that diversified supply and processing footprints remain essential to meet expanding global appetites for cashew-based foods and materials.

Africa generated 23.55% of the world supply but posted the quickest climb at 6.45% CAGR, anchored by Côte d’Ivoire’s 1.04 million metric tons crop. Government price guarantees and subsidized seedling programs moved to plant into Guinea and Benin savannas, and the Prosper Cashew project in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria delivered on-site training that increased processing yields by 3 percentage points. Local conversion, however, still captures only about 10% of raw nuts, leaving most value addition offshore. Climate volatility remains the key regional risk, a 112-millimeter rainfall shortfall in the Zanzan zone triggered a 50% leap in farm-gate prices during 2024.

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

1. Market Overview
2. Market Drivers
3. Market Restraints
4. Regulatory Landscape
5. Technological Outlook
6. Value / Supply-Chain Analysis
7. PESTLE Analysis
8. List of Key Stakeholders

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

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Table of Contents

1 Introduction
1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape
4.1 Market Overview
4.2 Market Drivers
4.2.1 Rising consumption of cashew nuts as a healthy snack
4.2.2 Increasing government incentives for tree-nut cultivation
4.2.3 Growing United States cashew imports
4.2.4 Expanding vegan and flexitarian food-processing demand
4.2.5 Mechanized shelling boosting kernel recovery rates
4.2.6 Emerging use of cashew-shell liquid in niche chemicals
4.3 Market Restraints
4.3.1 Climate volatility in key West African belts
4.3.2 Stringent food-quality and pesticide-residue regulations
4.3.3 Competition for arable land in Asia-Pacific
4.3.4 Labor shortages in manual shelling hubs
4.4 Regulatory Landscape
4.5 Technological Outlook
4.6 Value / Supply-Chain Analysis
4.7 PESTLE Analysis

5 Market Size and Growth Forecasts (Value and Volume)
5.1 By Geography (Production Analysis (Volume), Consumption Analysis (Volume and Value), Import Analysis (Volume and Value), Export Analysis (Volume and Value), and Price Trend Analysis)
5.1.1 North America
5.1.1.1 United States
5.1.1.2 Canada
5.1.1.3 Mexico
5.1.2 South America
5.1.2.1 Brazil
5.1.2.2 Argentina
5.1.2.3 Peru
5.1.3 Europe
5.1.3.1 Germany
5.1.3.2 United Kingdom
5.1.3.3 Netherlands
5.1.3.4 France
5.1.3.5 Spain
5.1.4 Asia-Pacific
5.1.4.1 India
5.1.4.2 Vietnam
5.1.4.3 China
5.1.4.4 Indonesia
5.1.4.5 Philippines
5.1.4.6 Australia
5.1.4.7 Thailand
5.1.5 Middle East
5.1.5.1 United Arab Emirates
5.1.5.2 Turkey
5.1.5.3 Saudi Arabia
5.1.5.4 Oman
5.1.6 Africa
5.1.6.1 Côte d'Ivoire
5.1.6.2 Tanzania
5.1.6.3 Nigeria
5.1.6.4 Ghana
5.1.6.5 Mozambique

6 By Form (Value)
6.1 In-shell
6.2 Shelled (Kernels)

7 Competitive Landscape
7.1 List of Key Stakeholders

8 Market Opportunities and Future Outlook