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世界の先端IC基板市場 2027年～2037年

The Global Advanced IC Substrates Market 20272037

高度なIC基板材料はAIハードウェアの物理的基盤を形成しており、市場は成熟した汎用製品の供給段階から、わずか1つの製品サイクルの中で深刻な供給制約に直面する状況へと移行した。基板製造で使用され... もっと見る

出版社

Future Markets, inc.
フューチャーマーケッツインク

出版年月

2026年9月8日

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GBP1,200
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PDF：3-5営業日程度

ページ数

354

言語

英語

日本語のページはAI翻訳を利用し作成しています。
実際のレポートは英文のみでご納品いたします。

目次
図表リスト

サマリー

Advanced IC Substrates Market Report 2027-2037

高度なIC基板材料はAIハードウェアの物理的基盤を形成しており、市場は成熟した汎用製品の供給段階から、わずか1つの製品サイクルの中で深刻な供給制約に直面する状況へと移行した。基板製造で使用される9つの材料分類とは、積層誘電体フィルム、銅張積層板およびプリプレグ、ガラス布補強材、充填材、銅箔、ドライフィルムフォトレジスト、ソルダーレジスト、めっきおよびデスミア用化学薬品、ならびに表面仕上げ用化学薬品である。これらの市場の成長率は、それらが供給する基板市場を大幅に上回っている。

最近の動向により、供給情勢は一変した。イビデンは、2026年度から3年間で5,000億円を投じることを決定し、併せてアリゾナ州に12億米ドルの施設を建設する。AT＆Sは、AMDと別の顧客1社による全額出資により、クリム工場の拡張に向けて15億～20億ユーロを確保した。ユニミクロンは2026年度の設備投資額を250億台湾ドル以上に設定した。発表済みの基板関連投資総額は129億米ドルを超える一方、基板の原料となる材料への投資額は約15億5,000万米ドルにとどまっている。この8対1を超える比率により、基板の供給逼迫が緩和されても、材料の供給逼迫は継続することになる。

集中こそが、その構造上の決定的な特徴である。代替圧が高まっている。京セラは2026年4月に多層セラミックコア基板を商品化し、サムスンエレクトロメカニクスは住友化学とガラス基板の合弁会社を設立し、2027年初頭の生産開始を目指している。これに加え、ユニミクロンもコーニングのパイロットプロジェクトに参画している。非有機コアへの採用が加速すれば、2037年までに積層板およびガラスクロスの需要の32％が消失する一方、ビルドアップフィルムの需要は16％減少し、めっき用化学薬品の需要は増加することになる。

「2027年～2037年の世界の先端IC基板市場」レポートでは、先端IC基板の製造に使用される材料の消費量を、それらの材料が生産、販売、および生産能力計画において用いられる単位（トン、平方メートル、リットル）で予測しています。本レポートは基板そのものを対象とした調査ではありません。基板の生産は「投入」であり、材料の消費は「産出」です。既存の基板市場調査では、パッケージ設計者、OSAT、ファブレス企業を対象に、基板の出荷数量と売上高が予測されています。材料の投入量はモデリング上の仮定として扱われており、開示されていません。ビルドアップフィルム、銅箔、ガラス布、充填剤、めっき薬品のメーカーにとって、その仮定は対象市場全体を構成しています。本レポートでは、これを主題としています。

調査対象は9つの材料分類と7つの地域に及び、需要は基板の製造地域ごとに配分されています。6つのシナリオでは、AI関連設備投資の減速、ガラスコアの採用加速、供給の混乱、中国における急速な現地化、およびパネルフォーマットの移行について検証しています。

内容は以下の通りです：

2027年～2037年の市場規模および予測（トン、平方メートル、米ドル単位）、素材分類、基板プラットフォーム、用途、地域別
変換係数の完全な開示と面積密度表を備えた5段階の予測手法
素材クラスごとに乗数を重ね合わせると、12％のペースで成長しているクラスと4.7％のペースで成長しているクラスとの間に生じる乖離が明らかになる
ボディサイズの全範囲にわたって、510 × 515 mm および 730 × 920 mm のフォーマットについて算出されたパネルの利用形状
層ごとの歩留まりと層数に基づく複合積層の歩留まりモデリング
224Gおよび448Gに向けたシグナルインテグリティのロードマップ（積層板の損失クラスに基づいて誘電体減衰を算出したもの）
素材ごとの分析：グレード、仕様、サプライヤー動向、生産能力、認定サイクル、需要予測
非有機物のコア置換：ガラスおよびセラミック。材料の置換量は1平方メートルあたりで定量化される。
クラス別のCR1、CR3、CR5およびHHIを用いた集中度分析；単一供給源への依存度および市場崩壊コストのモデル化
地域別の生産と消費のバランスおよび貿易への依存度
PFASへの曝露、回収率、および材料分類別の埋め込み炭素量
3D Glass Solutions、Absolics、Admatechs、Advanced Chip and Circuit Materials、Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASE)、Aeluma、AGY Holding、味の素、味の素ファインテクノ、AKM Meadville、Alliance Material、AMD、旭化成、AT&S、Baotek Industrial Materials、BOE Technology、Chang Chun Group、Chang Chun Petrochemical、Chemtronics、Chongqing Polycomp、Circuit Foil Luxembourg、Co-Tech Development、Coherent、Compeq Manufacturing、コーニング、Daeduck Electronics、大日本印刷、デンカ、斗山（Doosan Corporation）、Doosan Corporation Electro-Materials、DuPont Electronics / Qnity、Elite Material、Eternal Materials、Fastprint Circuit Tech、FICT、フジクラ、福田金属箔粉工業、古河電気工業、FusionAP、Goldenmax International、Grace Fabric Technology、Haesung DS、イビデン、インテル、Isola Group、ITEQ Corporation、Itera、JCET、JCU、Jiujiang Defu Technology、JNTC、Jushi Group、JX金属、KCC、Kingboard Laminates、Kinsus Interconnect、Kinwong Electronic、京セラ、Lens Technology、LG化学、LG Innotek、Lotte Energy Materials、LPKF Laser & Electronics、MacDermid Alpha、名幸電子工業、三菱ケミカルなど、計116社の企業プロフィールを収録。

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図表リスト

List of Tables

Table 1. Headline market summary: volume, value and CAGR by material class 27
Table 2. Material demand 2027–2037, tonnes and m² 28
Table 3. Material demand by region 2027–2037 29
Table 4. Concentration summary by material class 30
Table 5. Indexed growth, 2027 = 100 32
Table 6. Material class definitions, forecast units and scope boundaries 35
Table 7. Region definitions and demand allocation rules 36
Table 8. Build-up film grade families and property bands 37
Table 9. CCL grade classes by loss tangent 38
Table 10. Glass cloth grades and IPC-4412 style classification 38
Table 11. Glass composition classes 38
Table 12. Copper foil profile classes and applications 39
Table 13. Dry film resist resolution classes 39
Table 14. Substrate platform definitions and material implications 41
Table 15. AI accelerator package and substrate dimensions 43
Table 16. Body size and layer count by application 43
Table 17. Build-up layer count series by application, layers per side 44
Table 18. Line/space roadmap and material requirement consequences 45
Table 19. Line/space capability and via formation by process generation 46
Table 20. Panel formats and utilisation factors by body size class 48
Table 21. Substrate area and panel consumption at representative body sizes 48
Table 22. Compound stack yield by per-layer yield and layer count (core yield 98%) 50
Table 23. Line yield assumptions by platform, layer count and process generation 51
Table 24. Scrap recovery by material class 51
Table 25. Announced substrate capacity investment programmes 52
Table 26. Substrate capacity by region 53
Table 27. Announced substrate capex programmes 54
Table 28. Aggregate investment by tier 55
Table 29. Qualification cycle durations by material class 56
Table 30. Derivation of accelerator units from packaging wafer supply 58
Table 31. AI accelerator shipments and substrate area consumption 58
Table 32. Accelerator shipments by product class 60
Table 33. HBM contribution to package area 60
Table 34. HBM generation and interconnect requirements 61
Table 35. HBM generation, stack construction and package consequence 62
Table 36. Substrate area consequences of chiplet partitioning 63
Table 37. Package area and material consequence by partitioning approach 64
Table 38. Co-packaged optics substrate requirements against organic capability 65
Table 39. Server CPU and networking ASIC substrate parameters 66
Table 40. Substrate area by application, 2027 and 2037 67
Table 41. Dielectric attenuation at PAM4 Nyquist frequencies, dB per inch 68
Table 42. Material grade requirements by per-lane data rate 69
Table 43. Scenario definitions, varied inputs and quantified effect 70
Table 44. Conversion chain, stage by stage 71
Table 45. Substrates per device by application 72
Table 46. Layer multipliers by material class, for a substrate with n build-up layers per side 72
Table 47. Areal density and thickness assumptions by material class and grade 74
Table 48. Plating allowance and etch loss by line/space class 76
Table 49.Worked copper accounting, 120 × 120 mm substrate, 16 build-up layers per side 76
Table 50. Copper accounting, 120 × 120 mm substrate, 16 build-up layers per side 77
Table 51. Combined yield, scrap and utilisation factors 78
Table 52. Supporting detail: compound stack yield by per-layer yield and layer count, core yield 98% 79
Table 53. Supporting detail: scrap recovery by material class 79
Table 54. Panel utilisation by format and body size 79
Table 55. Utilisation statistics by band and format 80
Table 56. Purchased area penalty at representative body sizes, 510 × 515 mm panel 80
Table 57. Price series requirements and pass-through mechanics by material class 81
Table 58. Material-to-process mapping matrix 83
Table 59. Consumption basis and scaling by process step 84
Table 60. Consumption basis by process step 85
Table 61. Material-to-platform mapping matrix 85
Table 62. Relative material consumption index by platform, flip-chip BGA base case = 100 86
Table 63. Material class segmentation and demand anchors 87
Table 64. Primary applications by material grade 87
Table 65. Material composition per substrate, consumed basis 88
Table 66. Substrate cost breakdown by material class 89
Table 67. Total material volume 2027–2037 91
Table 68. Total material value 2027–2037 91
Table 69. Total material value 2027–2037, US$ million 91
Table 70. Volume forecast by material class 93
Table 71. Value forecast by material class 94
Table 72. Forecast by substrate platform 95
Table 73. Forecast by application 95
Table 74. Forecast by region 96
Table 75. ASP trajectories by material class 97
Table 76. Scenario comparison against base case 99
Table 77. Supplied construction and material accounting 103
Table 78. ABF grade properties: Dk, Df, CTE, Tg, filler loading 104
Table 79. Dielectric property targets by data rate 105
Table 80. Filler requirements by film class and line/space capability 106
Table 81. Process parameters and constraints 107
Table 82. Resin-coated copper construction 110
Table 83. Build-up film challengers: company, product, qualification status 111
Table 84. Qualification stages and duration 112
Table 85. Build-up film capacity by supplier and site 113
Table 86. Build-up film single-source exposure 113
Table 87. Core construction parameters 116
Table 88. Low-loss CCL grades by supplier 118
Table 89. CCL supplier capacity by region 120
Table 90. CCL and prepreg demand forecast 120
Table 91. Ultra low loss segment within the class, US$ million 120
Table 92. Glass cloth areal mass and thickness by style 122
Table 93. Low-Dk and low-Df glass compositions by supplier 124
Table 94. Low-CTE glass grades and target applications 125
Table 95. Ultra-thin cloth specifications 126
Table 96. Glass cloth supplier capacity by grade 127
Table 97. Constrained grade supply assessment 128
Table 98. Glass cloth demand forecast by grade 129
Table 99. Filler types, particle size and loading by application 130
Table 100. Filler supplier landscape and capacity 132
Table 101. Filler demand forecast 132
Table 102. Copper foil thickness ranges and profile classes by application 134
Table 103. Carrier foil constructions and release layer types 134
Table 104. Copper skin depth and roughness ratio by frequency 136
Table 105. Copper foil capacity allocation, substrate versus battery 137
Table 106. Copper foil demand forecast, tonnes 138
Table 107. Resist resolution capability by supplier 140
Table 108. Dry film resist demand forecast 142
Table 109. Solder resist demand forecast 142
Table 110. Chemistry consumption per panel by process step 144
Table 111. Plating chemistry supplier landscape 145
Table 112. Plating chemistry demand forecast 145
Table 113. Surface finish types: process, thickness, precious metal content 146
Table 114. Gold and palladium consumption forecast 147
Table 115. Cross-material summary: volume, value, CAGR, concentration 148
Table 116. Quadrant assessment 150
Table 117. Aggregate versus constrained-grade divergence 151
Table 118. Mass and value ranking compared 151
Table 119. Glass core position summary 153
Table 120.Silicon core assessment 154
Table 121. Ceramic core assessment 155
Table 122. Material displacement per m² of non-organic core 156
Table 123.Non-organic core substitution scenarios 157
Table 124. Displacement by material class under accelerated adoption, 2037 158
Table 125. China position summary 161
Table 126. Japan position summary 161
Table 127. Korea position summary 162
Table 128. Taiwan position summary 163
Table 129. USA position summary 163
Table 130. Europe position summary 164
Table 131. Southeast Asia position summary 165
Table 132. Regional demand by material class 2027–2037, US$ million (2037) 165
Table 133. Production capacity versus demand balance by region 166
Table 134. Value chain tiers and participant counts 169
Table 135. Concentration ratios (CR3, CR5, HHI) by material class 170
Table 136. Single-source exposure by material class 172
Table 137. Direct material agreements between OEMs and material suppliers 174
Table 138. Export controls, trade measures and tariff exposure 175
Table 139. Upstream input assessment 176
Table 140. Lead times by material class 178
Table 141. Supplier landscape structure 180
Table 142. Multi-material supplier positions by class 180
Table 143. Regional champion positions 181
Table 144. Supplier share positions by material class and region, constrained grade 182
Table 145. Capacity investment tracker 2024–2030 182
Table 146. Investment ratio, substrate manufacture versus substrate materials 183
Table 147. Partnerships, JVs and acquisitions 2024–2026 184
Table 148. New entrant assessment matrix 185
Table 149. PFAS exposure by material class 187
Table 150.Regulatory instrument coverage 189
Table 151. Recovery rates by material stream 189
Table 152. Embodied carbon by material class 190
Table 153. Regulatory trajectory and material implications 191
Table 154. Glossary and abbreviations 332
Table 155. Consolidated material specification reference 333
Table 156. Consolidated conversion factors 334
Table 157. Substrate manufacturer capacity, full detail 336
Table 158. Regional capacity share 336

List of Figures

Figure 1. The advanced IC substrate materials stack, exploded cross-section Source: Future Markets. 24
Figure 2. Material classes mapped to substrate cross-section Source: Future Markets. 25
Figure 3. Market value by material class 2027–2037 Source: Future Markets. 28
Figure 4. Market value by region 2027–2037 Source: Future Markets. 29
Figure 5. Concentration heat map Source: Future Markets. 30
Figure 6. Material demand growth versus substrate area growth, indexed Source: Future Markets. 31
Figure 7. Substrate platform cross-sections compared 40
Figure 8. Body size growth by application 43
Figure 9. Layer count growth by application 44
Figure 10. Line/space class adoption timeline, 2024–2037 46
Figure 11. Panel utilisation versus body size 47
Figure 12. Compound stack yield as a function of build-up layer count and per-layer yield 49
Figure 13. Substrate capacity share by region 52
Figure 14. Material qualification cycle, illustrative timeline 55
Figure 15. AI accelerator shipments and substrate area 58
Figure 16. HBM stack height evolution 61
Figure 17. Package area growth attributable to chiplet adoption 63
Figure 18. Dielectric attenuation versus frequency by laminate loss class 67
Figure 19. Five-stage forecast model schematic 70
Figure 20. Layer multiplier logic by material class 72
Figure 21. Build-up film composite density versus silica filler loading 74
Figure 22. Copper mass: deposited, etched and retained 76
Figure 23. Panel format sensitivity, tornado chart 80
Figure 24. Substrate process flow with material consumption points 84
Figure 25. Material mass breakdown for the reference substrate 87
Figure 26. Substrate cost breakdown, representative AI accelerator substrate 89
Figure 27. Total material volume, stacked by class 91
Figure 28. Total material value, stacked by class 92
Figure 29. Volume CAGR by material class 93
Figure 30. Regional demand shares, 2027 versus 2037 96
Figure 31. ASP trajectories indexed to 2027 97
Figure 32. Scenario fan chart, total market value 99
Figure 33. ABF cross-section construction 102
Figure 34. GX to GL series: filler loading, CTE and Dk trends 104
Figure 35. Vacuum lamination process flow 106
Figure 36. Melt viscosity versus temperature 107
Figure 37. ABF-RCC construction and process flow 109
Figure 38. Challenger qualification status timeline 111
Figure 39. Build-up film demand 2027–2037 114
Figure 40. CCL construction cross-section 115
Figure 41. Loss tangent by resin system 117
Figure 42. CCL demand 2027–2037 120
Figure 43. Weave constructions compared Source: Future Markets. 122
Figure 44. Areal mass versus thickness by style Source: Future Markets. 122
Figure 45. Dk versus glass composition Source: Future Markets. 124
Figure 46. Spread-yarn processing schematic Source: Future Markets. 126
Figure 47. Glass cloth demand by grade 2027–2037 Source: Future Markets. 128
Figure 48. Filler particle size distributions by grade Source: Future Markets. 130
Figure 49. Filler demand 2027–2037 Source: Future Markets. 132
Figure 50. Profile classes: surface roughness compared Source: Future Markets. 133
Figure 51. Carrier foil construction and release Source: Future Markets. 134
Figure 52. Roughness versus insertion loss Source: Future Markets. 135
Figure 53. Capacity allocation by supplier Source: Future Markets. 137
Figure 54. Copper foil demand 2027–2037 Source: Future Markets. 138
Figure 55. Resolution capability versus line/space requirement Source: Future Markets. 140
Figure 56. Plating process flow and chemistry consumption points Source: Future Markets. 144
Figure 57. Plating chemistry demand 2027–2037 Source: Future Markets. 145
Figure 58. Surface finish cross-sections compared 146
Figure 59. Precious metal consumption 2027–2037 Source: Future Markets. 147
Figure 60. Cross-material growth and concentration Source: Future Markets. 149
Figure 61. Multilayer ceramic core substrate for advanced semiconductor packaging 154
Figure 62. 2.5D integration warpage comparison and simulation model 154
Figure 63. Organic material displacement under three adoption scenarios Source: Future Markets. 157
Figure 64. Displacement by material class under accelerated adoption Source: Future Markets. 158
Figure 65. Regional demand by material class 165
Figure 66. Production versus demand balance 166
Figure 67. Value chain map, tier by tier 168
Figure 68. Concentration ratios by material class 170
Figure 69. Single-source exposure map 172
Figure 70. Export control exposure by value chain node Source: Future Markets. 175
Figure 71. Disruption scenario impact Source: Future Markets. 176
Figure 72. Capacity investment by region and material class Source: Future Markets. 182
Figure 73. PFAS exposure across the materials stack Source: Future Markets. 187
Figure 74. Absolics' glass substrate 289
Figure 75. Glass substrate test units at Intel’s Assembly and Test Technology Development factory. 304
Figure 76. JNTC Next-Generation Glass Substrate for Semiconductors. 307

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Table of Contents
List of Tables/Graphs

Summary

Advanced IC Substrates Market Report 2027-2037

Advanced IC substrate materials form the physical foundation of AI hardware, and the market has moved from mature commodity supply to acute constraint within a single product cycle. The nine material classes consumed in substrate manufacture — build-up dielectric film, copper-clad laminate and prepreg, glass cloth reinforcement, fillers, copper foil, dry film photoresist, solder resist, plating and desmear chemistries, and surface finish chemistries. Growth substantially outpaces the substrate market it supplies.

Recent developments have reshaped the supply picture. Ibiden committed ¥500 billion over three years from FY2026 alongside a US$1.2 billion Arizona facility; AT&S secured €1.5 to 2.0 billion for Kulim expansion financed entirely by AMD and one further customer; Unimicron set 2026 capital expenditure above NT$25 billion. Combined announced substrate investment exceeds US$12.9 billion against approximately US$1.55 billion directed at the materials that supply it — a ratio of more than eight to one that sustains material tightness even as substrate tightness eases.

Concentration is the defining structural feature. Substitution pressure is intensifying. Kyocera commercialised a multilayer ceramic core substrate in April 2026, and Samsung Electro-Mechanics formed a glass substrate joint venture with Sumitomo Chemical targeting production in early 2027, joining Unimicron's stake in the Corning pilot. Non-organic core adoption at accelerated rates would remove 32 per cent of laminate and glass cloth demand by 2037 while leaving build-up film reduced by 16 per cent and plating chemistry higher.

The Global Advanced IC Substrates Market 2027–2037 forecasts consumption of the materials used to manufacture advanced IC substrates, expressed in the units in which those materials are produced, sold and capacity-planned: tonnes, square metres and litres. It is not a study of substrates. Substrate production is the input; material consumption is the output. Existing substrate market studies forecast substrate units and revenue, serving package designers, OSATs and fabless companies. Material input is treated as a modelling assumption and is not disclosed. For producers of build-up film, copper foil, glass cloth, fillers and plating chemistry, that assumption constitutes the entire addressable market. This report makes it the subject.

Coverage spans nine material classes and seven regions, with demand allocated to the region of substrate manufacture. Six scenarios test AI capex slowdown, accelerated glass core adoption, supply disruption, rapid Chinese localisation and panel format transition.

Contents include:

Market size and forecasts 2027–2037 in tonnes, square metres and US dollars, by material class, substrate platform, application and region
Five-stage forecast methodology with full conversion factor disclosure and areal density tables
Layer multipliers by material class, and the resulting divergence between classes growing at 12 per cent and those growing at 4.7 per cent
Panel utilisation geometry, computed for 510 × 515 mm and 730 × 920 mm formats across the body size range
Compound stack yield modelling by per-layer yield and layer count
Signal integrity roadmap to 224G and 448G, with dielectric attenuation computed by laminate loss class
Material-by-material analysis: grades, specifications, supplier landscapes, capacity, qualification cycles and demand forecasts
Non-organic core substitution: glass and ceramic, with material displacement quantified per square metre
Concentration analysis with CR1, CR3, CR5 and HHI by class; single-source exposure and disruption cost modelling
Regional production versus consumption balance and trade exposure
PFAS exposure, recovery rates and embodied carbon by material class
116 company profiles including 3D Glass Solutions, Absolics, Admatechs, Advanced Chip and Circuit Materials, Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASE), Aeluma, AGY Holding, Ajinomoto Co., Ajinomoto Fine-Techno, AKM Meadville, Alliance Material, AMD, Asahi Kasei, AT&S, Baotek Industrial Materials, BOE Technology, Chang Chun Group, Chang Chun Petrochemical, Chemtronics, Chongqing Polycomp, Circuit Foil Luxembourg, Co-Tech Development, Coherent, Compeq Manufacturing, Corning, Daeduck Electronics, Dai Nippon Printing, Denka, Doosan Corporation, Doosan Corporation Electro-Materials, DuPont Electronics / Qnity, Elite Material, Eternal Materials, Fastprint Circuit Tech, FICT, Fujikura, Fukuda Metal Foil & Powder, Furukawa Electric, FusionAP, Goldenmax International, Grace Fabric Technology, Haesung DS, Ibiden, Intel, Isola Group, ITEQ Corporation, Itera, JCET, JCU Corporation, Jiujiang Defu Technology, JNTC, Jushi Group, JX Advanced Metals, KCC Corporation, Kingboard Laminates, Kinsus Interconnect, Kinwong Electronic, Kyocera, Lens Technology, LG Chem, LG Innotek, Lotte Energy Materials, LPKF Laser & Electronics, MacDermid Alpha, Meiko Electronics, Mitsubishi Chemical and more.....

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1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 24

1.1 Scope and headline definitions 24

1.2 The substrate materials stack 24

1.3 Key findings 26

1.4 Market size, growth and CAGR summary 27

1.5 Headline forecasts by material class 28

1.6 Headline forecasts by region 29

1.7 Supply concentration at a glance 30

1.8 The utilisation asymmetry: why material demand outgrows substrate area 31

1.9 Strategic implications for suppliers 33

1.10 Strategic implications for buyers 33

2 INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE 34

2.1 Report objectives 35

2.2 Product scope: the nine material classes 35

2.3 Geographic scope: the seven regions 36

2.4 Grade and specification definitions 37

2.4.1 Build-up film grade families 37

2.4.2 CCL loss-tangent classes 37

2.4.3 Glass cloth dielectric grades and weave styles 38

2.4.4 Copper foil profile classes 38

2.4.5 Dry film resist resolution classes 39

2.5 Units, conventions and abbreviations 39

3 THE ADVANCED IC SUBSTRATE DEMAND BASE 40

3.1 Substrate platforms in scope 41

3.1.1 Flip-chip BGA and build-up substrates 41

3.1.2 Substrate-like PCB (SLP) 42

3.1.3 Embedded die substrates 42

3.1.4 Coreless and substrate-less architectures (CoWoP) 42

3.1.5 Non-organic cores 42

3.2 Substrate area as the demand unit 42

3.2.1 Body size trends by application 43

3.2.2 Build-up layer count trends 44

3.2.3 Line/space roadmap and material implications 45

3.3.1 Strip, panel and large-panel processing 47

3.3.2 Panel utilisation and edge loss 47

3.3.3 Yield assumptions by platform 49

3.3 Panel formats and utilisation 47

3.4 Substrate production capacity outlook 2025–2037 52

3.5 Substrate manufacturer landscape 54

3.6 Material qualification practice and cycle times 55

4 DEMAND DRIVERS 57

4.1 AI accelerator and GPU shipments 58

4.2 HBM stack height and memory substrate demand 60

4.3 Chiplet adoption and package area growth 63

4.4 Co-packaged optics and photonic substrates 65

4.5 Server CPU and networking ASICs 66

4.6 Mobile and consumer 66

4.7 Automotive and industrial 67

4.8 Aerospace and defence 67

4.9 Signal integrity roadmap: 224G, 448G and material consequences 68

4.10 Demand scenario definitions 69

5 FORECAST METHODOLOGY 71

5.1 Model architecture 71

5.2 Device shipments to substrate area 72

5.3 Substrate area to layer area 72

5.4 Layer area to material mass: areal density and thickness 74

5.5 Copper thickness, plating allowance and etch loss 75

5.6 Yield, scrap and utilisation factors 77

5.7 Panel-format sensitivity 79

5.8 Price modelling and ASP erosion 81

5.9 Top-down reconciliation against supplier segment reporting 82

6 MATERIAL SEGMENTATION 82

6.1 Material-to-process mapping 83

6.2 Material-to-platform mapping 85

6.3 Segment definitions and primary applications 86

6.4 Cost breakdown of a representative advanced substrate 88

7 GLOBAL MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST 2027–2037 91

7.1 Total market volume and value 91

7.2 Forecast by material class 93

7.3 Forecast by substrate platform 95

7.4 Forecast by application 95

7.5 Forecast by region 96

7.6 Price forecasts and ASP trajectories 97

7.7 Scenario analysis 99

7.7.1 AI capex slowdown 100

7.7.2 Accelerated glass core adoption 100

7.7.3 Supply disruption 101

7.7.4 Rapid Chinese localisation 101

8 MATERIAL-BY-MATERIAL ANALYSIS 102

8.1 Build-up dielectric films 102

8.1.1 Function and requirements 102

8.1.2 ABF construction: resin, carrier and cover sheet 102

8.1.3 GX to GL series evolution and filler loading 104

8.1.4 Dk/Df targets for 224G and beyond 105

8.1.5 CTE, warpage and dimensional stability 106

8.1.6 Filler chemistry, loading and particle size 106

8.1.7 Lamination and cure process windows 107

8.1.8 Desmear compatibility and copper adhesion 109

8.1.9 ABF-RCC and resin-coated variants 109

8.1.10 Challenger films: Japan, USA, China, Korea 110

8.1.11 Qualification barriers and switching costs 112

8.1.12 Capacity, expansion and lead times 113

8.1.13 Single-source dependency quantified 113

8.1.14 Demand forecast 2027–2037 114

8.2 Copper-clad laminate and prepreg 116

8.2.1 Construction and grades 116

8.2.2 BT resin systems 117

8.2.3 Epoxy and modified epoxy 117

8.2.4 Low-loss and ultra-low-loss systems 117

8.2.5 Halogen-free reformulation 119

8.2.6 Thin-core and coreless processing 119

8.2.7 Supplier landscape and capacity 120

8.2.8 Demand forecast 2027–2037 120

8.3.1 Styles and weave constructions 122

8.3.2 Low-Dk and low-Df compositions 124

8.3.3 Low-CTE and high-modulus: T-glass 125

8.3.4 Ultra-thin and spread-yarn fabrics 126

8.3.5 The low-Dk and low-CTE bottleneck quantified 127

8.3.6 Chinese localisation programmes 128

8.3.7 Demand forecast 2027–2037 by grade 128

8.4.1 Silica, alumina and specialty fillers 130

8.4.2 Particle size distribution and surface treatment 130

8.4.3 Supplier landscape 132

8.4.4 Demand forecast 2027–2037 132

8.5.1 Electrodeposited versus rolled annealed 133

8.5.2 Low-profile, VLP and HVLP grades 134

8.5.3 Carrier foil constructions and release layer chemistry 134

8.5.4 Roughness versus insertion loss trade-off 136

8.5.5 Capacity competition with battery copper foil 137

8.5.6 Copper price exposure and pass-through 138

8.5.7 Demand forecast 2027–2037 138

8.6.1 Resolution requirements by line/space node 140

8.6.2 Supplier landscape 141

8.6.3 Demand forecast 2027–2037 142

8.7.1 Formulation and requirements 142

8.7.2 Supplier landscape 142

8.7.3 Demand forecast 2027–2037 142

8.8.1 Desmear and permanganate systems 143

8.8.2 Electroless copper 143

8.8.3 Electrolytic copper, additives and levellers 143

8.8.4 Via fill and through-glass-via metallisation 144

8.8.5 Overlap with fab wet chemistry supply 145

8.8.6 Demand forecast 2027–2037 145

8.9.1 ENIG, ENEPIG, OSP and alternatives 146

8.9.2 Gold and palladium consumption 147

8.9.3 Demand forecast 2027–2037 148

8.3 Glass cloth reinforcement 122

8.4 Fillers 130

8.5 Copper foil 133

8.6 Dry film photoresist 140

8.7 Solder resist 142

8.8 Plating and desmear chemistries 143

8.9 Surface finish chemistries 146

8.10 Cross-material summary 148

9 NON-ORGANIC AND HYBRID CORES 152

9.1 Glass core substrates 153

9.2 Silicon core substrates 154

9.3 Ceramic and glass-ceramic cores 154

9.4 Material implications of the core transition 156

9.5 Substitution scenarios and effect on organic material demand 157

10 REGIONAL ANALYSIS 160

10.1 China 161

10.2 Japan 161

10.3 Korea 162

10.4 Taiwan 163

10.5 USA 163

10.6 Europe 164

10.7 Southeast Asia 164

10.8 Cross-regional summary and trade balance 166

11 SUPPLY CHAIN, CONCENTRATION AND RISK 168

11.1 Value chain mapped 168

11.2 Concentration analysis by material class 170

11.3 Single-source and dual-source exposure quantified 172

11.4 Chip designers and OEMs contracting upstream 174

11.5 Export controls, trade measures and tariff exposure 175

11.6 Upstream raw material inputs 176

11.7 Disruption scenarios and cost-of-disruption modelling 176

11.8 Inventory, allocation and lead-time behaviour 178

12 COMPETITIVE AND SUPPLIER LANDSCAPE 180

12.1 Supplier landscape overview 180

12.2 Multi-material majors 180

12.3 Regional champions 181

12.4 Share positions by material and region 182

12.5 Capacity investment tracker 182

12.6 Partnerships, JVs and acquisitions 184

12.7 New entrant assessment 185

13 SUSTAINABILITY AND REGULATORY 186

13.1 PFAS exposure in substrate materials 186

13.2 Halogen-free, RoHS and REACH compliance 189

13.3 Copper and precious metal recovery 189

13.4 Embodied carbon in substrate manufacture 190

13.5 Regulatory outlook 191

14 COMPANY PROFILES 192

14.1 Build-up dielectric film 193 (12 company profiles)

14.2 Copper-clad laminate and prepreg 203 (17 company profiles)

14.3 Glass cloth and glass yarn 220 (7 company profiles)

14.4 Fillers 227 (4 company profiles)

14.5 Copper foil 231 (15 company profiles)

14.6 Dry film and solder resist 244 (7 company profiles)

14.7 Plating, desmear and surface finish chemistry 250 (11 company profiles)

14.8 Substrate manufacturers 261 (26 company profiles)

14.9 Glass core substrates and other companies 289 (34 company profiles)

15 APPENDICES 332

15.1 Glossary and abbreviations 332

15.2 Material specification reference tables 333

15.3 Conversion factors and areal density assumptions 334

15.4 Substrate manufacturer capacity table 335

15.5 Research methodology 337

16 REFERENCES 338

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List of Tables/Graphs

List of Tables

Table 1. Headline market summary: volume, value and CAGR by material class 27
Table 2. Material demand 2027–2037, tonnes and m² 28
Table 3. Material demand by region 2027–2037 29
Table 4. Concentration summary by material class 30
Table 5. Indexed growth, 2027 = 100 32
Table 6. Material class definitions, forecast units and scope boundaries 35
Table 7. Region definitions and demand allocation rules 36
Table 8. Build-up film grade families and property bands 37
Table 9. CCL grade classes by loss tangent 38
Table 10. Glass cloth grades and IPC-4412 style classification 38
Table 11. Glass composition classes 38
Table 12. Copper foil profile classes and applications 39
Table 13. Dry film resist resolution classes 39
Table 14. Substrate platform definitions and material implications 41
Table 15. AI accelerator package and substrate dimensions 43
Table 16. Body size and layer count by application 43
Table 17. Build-up layer count series by application, layers per side 44
Table 18. Line/space roadmap and material requirement consequences 45
Table 19. Line/space capability and via formation by process generation 46
Table 20. Panel formats and utilisation factors by body size class 48
Table 21. Substrate area and panel consumption at representative body sizes 48
Table 22. Compound stack yield by per-layer yield and layer count (core yield 98%) 50
Table 23. Line yield assumptions by platform, layer count and process generation 51
Table 24. Scrap recovery by material class 51
Table 25. Announced substrate capacity investment programmes 52
Table 26. Substrate capacity by region 53
Table 27. Announced substrate capex programmes 54
Table 28. Aggregate investment by tier 55
Table 29. Qualification cycle durations by material class 56
Table 30. Derivation of accelerator units from packaging wafer supply 58
Table 31. AI accelerator shipments and substrate area consumption 58
Table 32. Accelerator shipments by product class 60
Table 33. HBM contribution to package area 60
Table 34. HBM generation and interconnect requirements 61
Table 35. HBM generation, stack construction and package consequence 62
Table 36. Substrate area consequences of chiplet partitioning 63
Table 37. Package area and material consequence by partitioning approach 64
Table 38. Co-packaged optics substrate requirements against organic capability 65
Table 39. Server CPU and networking ASIC substrate parameters 66
Table 40. Substrate area by application, 2027 and 2037 67
Table 41. Dielectric attenuation at PAM4 Nyquist frequencies, dB per inch 68
Table 42. Material grade requirements by per-lane data rate 69
Table 43. Scenario definitions, varied inputs and quantified effect 70
Table 44. Conversion chain, stage by stage 71
Table 45. Substrates per device by application 72
Table 46. Layer multipliers by material class, for a substrate with n build-up layers per side 72
Table 47. Areal density and thickness assumptions by material class and grade 74
Table 48. Plating allowance and etch loss by line/space class 76
Table 49.Worked copper accounting, 120 × 120 mm substrate, 16 build-up layers per side 76
Table 50. Copper accounting, 120 × 120 mm substrate, 16 build-up layers per side 77
Table 51. Combined yield, scrap and utilisation factors 78
Table 52. Supporting detail: compound stack yield by per-layer yield and layer count, core yield 98% 79
Table 53. Supporting detail: scrap recovery by material class 79
Table 54. Panel utilisation by format and body size 79
Table 55. Utilisation statistics by band and format 80
Table 56. Purchased area penalty at representative body sizes, 510 × 515 mm panel 80
Table 57. Price series requirements and pass-through mechanics by material class 81
Table 58. Material-to-process mapping matrix 83
Table 59. Consumption basis and scaling by process step 84
Table 60. Consumption basis by process step 85
Table 61. Material-to-platform mapping matrix 85
Table 62. Relative material consumption index by platform, flip-chip BGA base case = 100 86
Table 63. Material class segmentation and demand anchors 87
Table 64. Primary applications by material grade 87
Table 65. Material composition per substrate, consumed basis 88
Table 66. Substrate cost breakdown by material class 89
Table 67. Total material volume 2027–2037 91
Table 68. Total material value 2027–2037 91
Table 69. Total material value 2027–2037, US$ million 91
Table 70. Volume forecast by material class 93
Table 71. Value forecast by material class 94
Table 72. Forecast by substrate platform 95
Table 73. Forecast by application 95
Table 74. Forecast by region 96
Table 75. ASP trajectories by material class 97
Table 76. Scenario comparison against base case 99
Table 77. Supplied construction and material accounting 103
Table 78. ABF grade properties: Dk, Df, CTE, Tg, filler loading 104
Table 79. Dielectric property targets by data rate 105
Table 80. Filler requirements by film class and line/space capability 106
Table 81. Process parameters and constraints 107
Table 82. Resin-coated copper construction 110
Table 83. Build-up film challengers: company, product, qualification status 111
Table 84. Qualification stages and duration 112
Table 85. Build-up film capacity by supplier and site 113
Table 86. Build-up film single-source exposure 113
Table 87. Core construction parameters 116
Table 88. Low-loss CCL grades by supplier 118
Table 89. CCL supplier capacity by region 120
Table 90. CCL and prepreg demand forecast 120
Table 91. Ultra low loss segment within the class, US$ million 120
Table 92. Glass cloth areal mass and thickness by style 122
Table 93. Low-Dk and low-Df glass compositions by supplier 124
Table 94. Low-CTE glass grades and target applications 125
Table 95. Ultra-thin cloth specifications 126
Table 96. Glass cloth supplier capacity by grade 127
Table 97. Constrained grade supply assessment 128
Table 98. Glass cloth demand forecast by grade 129
Table 99. Filler types, particle size and loading by application 130
Table 100. Filler supplier landscape and capacity 132
Table 101. Filler demand forecast 132
Table 102. Copper foil thickness ranges and profile classes by application 134
Table 103. Carrier foil constructions and release layer types 134
Table 104. Copper skin depth and roughness ratio by frequency 136
Table 105. Copper foil capacity allocation, substrate versus battery 137
Table 106. Copper foil demand forecast, tonnes 138
Table 107. Resist resolution capability by supplier 140
Table 108. Dry film resist demand forecast 142
Table 109. Solder resist demand forecast 142
Table 110. Chemistry consumption per panel by process step 144
Table 111. Plating chemistry supplier landscape 145
Table 112. Plating chemistry demand forecast 145
Table 113. Surface finish types: process, thickness, precious metal content 146
Table 114. Gold and palladium consumption forecast 147
Table 115. Cross-material summary: volume, value, CAGR, concentration 148
Table 116. Quadrant assessment 150
Table 117. Aggregate versus constrained-grade divergence 151
Table 118. Mass and value ranking compared 151
Table 119. Glass core position summary 153
Table 120.Silicon core assessment 154
Table 121. Ceramic core assessment 155
Table 122. Material displacement per m² of non-organic core 156
Table 123.Non-organic core substitution scenarios 157
Table 124. Displacement by material class under accelerated adoption, 2037 158
Table 125. China position summary 161
Table 126. Japan position summary 161
Table 127. Korea position summary 162
Table 128. Taiwan position summary 163
Table 129. USA position summary 163
Table 130. Europe position summary 164
Table 131. Southeast Asia position summary 165
Table 132. Regional demand by material class 2027–2037, US$ million (2037) 165
Table 133. Production capacity versus demand balance by region 166
Table 134. Value chain tiers and participant counts 169
Table 135. Concentration ratios (CR3, CR5, HHI) by material class 170
Table 136. Single-source exposure by material class 172
Table 137. Direct material agreements between OEMs and material suppliers 174
Table 138. Export controls, trade measures and tariff exposure 175
Table 139. Upstream input assessment 176
Table 140. Lead times by material class 178
Table 141. Supplier landscape structure 180
Table 142. Multi-material supplier positions by class 180
Table 143. Regional champion positions 181
Table 144. Supplier share positions by material class and region, constrained grade 182
Table 145. Capacity investment tracker 2024–2030 182
Table 146. Investment ratio, substrate manufacture versus substrate materials 183
Table 147. Partnerships, JVs and acquisitions 2024–2026 184
Table 148. New entrant assessment matrix 185
Table 149. PFAS exposure by material class 187
Table 150.Regulatory instrument coverage 189
Table 151. Recovery rates by material stream 189
Table 152. Embodied carbon by material class 190
Table 153. Regulatory trajectory and material implications 191
Table 154. Glossary and abbreviations 332
Table 155. Consolidated material specification reference 333
Table 156. Consolidated conversion factors 334
Table 157. Substrate manufacturer capacity, full detail 336
Table 158. Regional capacity share 336

List of Figures

Figure 1. The advanced IC substrate materials stack, exploded cross-section Source: Future Markets. 24
Figure 2. Material classes mapped to substrate cross-section Source: Future Markets. 25
Figure 3. Market value by material class 2027–2037 Source: Future Markets. 28
Figure 4. Market value by region 2027–2037 Source: Future Markets. 29
Figure 5. Concentration heat map Source: Future Markets. 30
Figure 6. Material demand growth versus substrate area growth, indexed Source: Future Markets. 31
Figure 7. Substrate platform cross-sections compared 40
Figure 8. Body size growth by application 43
Figure 9. Layer count growth by application 44
Figure 10. Line/space class adoption timeline, 2024–2037 46
Figure 11. Panel utilisation versus body size 47
Figure 12. Compound stack yield as a function of build-up layer count and per-layer yield 49
Figure 13. Substrate capacity share by region 52
Figure 14. Material qualification cycle, illustrative timeline 55
Figure 15. AI accelerator shipments and substrate area 58
Figure 16. HBM stack height evolution 61
Figure 17. Package area growth attributable to chiplet adoption 63
Figure 18. Dielectric attenuation versus frequency by laminate loss class 67
Figure 19. Five-stage forecast model schematic 70
Figure 20. Layer multiplier logic by material class 72
Figure 21. Build-up film composite density versus silica filler loading 74
Figure 22. Copper mass: deposited, etched and retained 76
Figure 23. Panel format sensitivity, tornado chart 80
Figure 24. Substrate process flow with material consumption points 84
Figure 25. Material mass breakdown for the reference substrate 87
Figure 26. Substrate cost breakdown, representative AI accelerator substrate 89
Figure 27. Total material volume, stacked by class 91
Figure 28. Total material value, stacked by class 92
Figure 29. Volume CAGR by material class 93
Figure 30. Regional demand shares, 2027 versus 2037 96
Figure 31. ASP trajectories indexed to 2027 97
Figure 32. Scenario fan chart, total market value 99
Figure 33. ABF cross-section construction 102
Figure 34. GX to GL series: filler loading, CTE and Dk trends 104
Figure 35. Vacuum lamination process flow 106
Figure 36. Melt viscosity versus temperature 107
Figure 37. ABF-RCC construction and process flow 109
Figure 38. Challenger qualification status timeline 111
Figure 39. Build-up film demand 2027–2037 114
Figure 40. CCL construction cross-section 115
Figure 41. Loss tangent by resin system 117
Figure 42. CCL demand 2027–2037 120
Figure 43. Weave constructions compared Source: Future Markets. 122
Figure 44. Areal mass versus thickness by style Source: Future Markets. 122
Figure 45. Dk versus glass composition Source: Future Markets. 124
Figure 46. Spread-yarn processing schematic Source: Future Markets. 126
Figure 47. Glass cloth demand by grade 2027–2037 Source: Future Markets. 128
Figure 48. Filler particle size distributions by grade Source: Future Markets. 130
Figure 49. Filler demand 2027–2037 Source: Future Markets. 132
Figure 50. Profile classes: surface roughness compared Source: Future Markets. 133
Figure 51. Carrier foil construction and release Source: Future Markets. 134
Figure 52. Roughness versus insertion loss Source: Future Markets. 135
Figure 53. Capacity allocation by supplier Source: Future Markets. 137
Figure 54. Copper foil demand 2027–2037 Source: Future Markets. 138
Figure 55. Resolution capability versus line/space requirement Source: Future Markets. 140
Figure 56. Plating process flow and chemistry consumption points Source: Future Markets. 144
Figure 57. Plating chemistry demand 2027–2037 Source: Future Markets. 145
Figure 58. Surface finish cross-sections compared 146
Figure 59. Precious metal consumption 2027–2037 Source: Future Markets. 147
Figure 60. Cross-material growth and concentration Source: Future Markets. 149
Figure 61. Multilayer ceramic core substrate for advanced semiconductor packaging 154
Figure 62. 2.5D integration warpage comparison and simulation model 154
Figure 63. Organic material displacement under three adoption scenarios Source: Future Markets. 157
Figure 64. Displacement by material class under accelerated adoption Source: Future Markets. 158
Figure 65. Regional demand by material class 165
Figure 66. Production versus demand balance 166
Figure 67. Value chain map, tier by tier 168
Figure 68. Concentration ratios by material class 170
Figure 69. Single-source exposure map 172
Figure 70. Export control exposure by value chain node Source: Future Markets. 175
Figure 71. Disruption scenario impact Source: Future Markets. 176
Figure 72. Capacity investment by region and material class Source: Future Markets. 182
Figure 73. PFAS exposure across the materials stack Source: Future Markets. 187
Figure 74. Absolics' glass substrate 289
Figure 75. Glass substrate test units at Intel’s Assembly and Test Technology Development factory. 304
Figure 76. JNTC Next-Generation Glass Substrate for Semiconductors. 307

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世界の先端IC基板市場 2027年～2037年

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世界の先端IC基板市場 2027年～2037年

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