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音声サービスの今後の戦略 2015-2020年: mVoIP、キャリアOTT、WebRTC、高音質通話、テレビ電話

Future Voice Strategies

mVoIP, Carrier OTT, WebRTC, HD Voice & Video Calling 2015-2020

 

出版社 出版年月電子版価格
Juniper Research
ジュニパーリサーチ社
2015年10月GBP3,970
企業ライセンス

サマリー

英国調査会社ジュニパーリサーチ社(Juniper Research)の調査レポート「音声サービスの今後の戦略 2015-2020年: mVoIP、キャリアOTT、WebRTC、高音質通話、テレビ電話」は、モバイル音声市場の主要市場予測と、OTT VoIPや高音質音声通信、WebRTC、テレビ電話などの技術とサービスに関する査定を行っています。

主な掲載内容

  • モバイル事業者のキャリアOTTとサードパーティのOTTのみの提供によるVoIPとVoLTEの収益化の分析
  • 新しいWebRTCと高音質通信の戦略と地域特性の分析
  • モバイル事業者とOTTの今後の見通しに関する主要な産業動向の分析
  • バリューチェーンにおける主要企業へのインタビュー(EE、F5 Networks、Genband、GSMA、Taqua、Tokbox)
  • 主要企業の査定、ベンダの市場でのポジショニングに関するマトリクス
  • 産業規模とユーザ数やサービス収益の成長の予測

Overview

In an environment that is rapidly transitioning from circuit-switched to all-IP, developing new business models for voice services is a critical objective for stakeholders. Juniper's success in this sector is based on offering market leading research and competitive intelligence to the telecoms sector on voice strategies since 2006.

Juniper’s latest research into mobile voice combines in-depth analysis with key market forecasts, providing clients with an authoritative assessment of technologies and services such as OTT VoIP, HD Voice, WebRTC and Video Calling.
Key Features of the Report

  • Evaluation of the monetisation prospects of VoIP (Voice over IP) and VoLTE (Voice over LTE) for both mobile operators (Carrier OTT) and third parties (Pure-Play OTT).
  • New WebRTC and HD Voice strategic and regional analysis.
  • In-depth assessment of key industry trends, along with MNO and OTT future prospects.
  • Interviews with leading players across the value chain, including:
    • EE
    • F5 Networks
    • Genband
    • GSMA
    • Taqua
    • Tokbox
  • Key player capability and capacity assessment, together with vendor market positioning matrix.
  • Benchmark industry forecasts for size and growth of the users and service revenue.

Companies Referenced

Interviewed: EE, fring Alliance, F5 Networks, Genband, GSMA, Taqua, Tokbox.
 
Profiled: Amdocs, CounterPath, Daum Kakao, Genband, LINE, Movius, Nimbuzz, Rebtel, Skype, Tango, Taqua, Viber, WhatsApp.
 
Case Studied: Bright House Networks, EE, eFace2Face, fring Alliance, T-Mobile, Tokbox, Wi-Fi Alliance.
 
Mentioned:
3HK, A1 Telekom, Alibaba, Amazon, Apple, AT&T, Avaya, Baedal Minjok, Bell Mobility, Beltel, BendBroadband, BlackBerry, Bridgestone, BT, Bynet Data Communications, Cambly, Cellrox, China Mobile, Claro, CommLogik, CSL, CyberAgent, Dell, Dialod, DiGi, Dimension Data, DoDo Phone, Double Robotics, Dyyno, eBay, Eircom, Elisa, ENEC, Equinix, Ericcson, Facebook, Fox, GitHub, Global Voice Recording, Golden Screen Interactive Technologies, Google, Gree, Hewlett Packard, HTC, Huawei, InstaEdu, Instagramm Integrator, Intel, Internet Engineering Taskforce, joyn, JSC Indochina Telecommunication Technology, JuanaChat Mobile, Kineto, Ledefyl, LG, Lintas Teknologi, Mavshack, Microsoft, Micromax, Minerva Project, MobilTel, Modality Systems, Motorola, Naver Corporation, Net4Mobility, New Call Telecom, NHN Corporation, Nokia, Nortel, NTT DoCoMo, O2, OnNet, ONO, ooVoo, OpenPeak, Orange, Path, Playtika, RCom, Reliance, Rogers, RomTelecom, SageNet, Samsung, Sinch, Sony, Sprint, Storm8, Tata DoCoMo, TCRP, Tekelec, Tele2, Telecommunications Industry Association, Telefonica, Telenor, Teletel, Telkom SA, Telkomsel, The Alacrity Foundation, Three, Twitter, UBER, Ubiquity Software, Vanran Communications, Verizon, VimpelCom, Vodafone, W3C (World Wide Web Consortium), Walmart, Webpay, WeChat, Wesley Clover Corporation, WIND Mobile, Woowa Bros, Xura (formerly Acision), Yahoo, ZTE.

Key Questions

  • How have third-party OTT mobile VoIP services impacted upon network operator services?
  • How can third-party providers maximise the revenue opportunity from mVoIP?
  • What are the major market forces acting upon mVoIP adoption?
  • What is WebRTC/Mobile Voice HD and how is it disrupting the mobile voice market?
  • What voice technologies are likely to be the most successful in the future and why?

Companies Referenced

Interviewed: EE, fring Alliance, F5 Networks, Genband, GSMA, Taqua, Tokbox.
 
Profiled: Amdocs, CounterPath, Daum Kakao, Genband, LINE, Movius, Nimbuzz, Rebtel, Skype, Tango, Taqua, Viber, WhatsApp.
 
Case Studied: Bright House Networks, EE, eFace2Face, fring Alliance, T-Mobile, Tokbox, Wi-Fi Alliance.
 
Mentioned:
3HK, A1 Telekom, Alibaba, Amazon, Apple, AT&T, Avaya, Baedal Minjok, Bell Mobility, Beltel, BendBroadband, BlackBerry, Bridgestone, BT, Bynet Data Communications, Cambly, Cellrox, China Mobile, Claro, CommLogik, CSL, CyberAgent, Dell, Dialod, DiGi, Dimension Data, DoDo Phone, Double Robotics, Dyyno, eBay, Eircom, Elisa, ENEC, Equinix, Ericcson, Facebook, Fox, GitHub, Global Voice Recording, Golden Screen Interactive Technologies, Google, Gree, Hewlett Packard, HTC, Huawei, InstaEdu, Instagramm Integrator, Intel, Internet Engineering Taskforce, joyn, JSC Indochina Telecommunication Technology, JuanaChat Mobile, Kineto, Ledefyl, LG, Lintas Teknologi, Mavshack, Microsoft, Micromax, Minerva Project, MobilTel, Modality Systems, Motorola, Naver Corporation, Net4Mobility, New Call Telecom, NHN Corporation, Nokia, Nortel, NTT DoCoMo, O2, OnNet, ONO, ooVoo, OpenPeak, Orange, Path, Playtika, RCom, Reliance, Rogers, RomTelecom, SageNet, Samsung, Sinch, Sony, Sprint, Storm8, Tata DoCoMo, TCRP, Tekelec, Tele2, Telecommunications Industry Association, Telefonica, Telenor, Teletel, Telkom SA, Telkomsel, The Alacrity Foundation, Three, Twitter, UBER, Ubiquity Software, Vanran Communications, Verizon, VimpelCom, Vodafone, W3C (World Wide Web Consortium), Walmart, Webpay, WeChat, Wesley Clover Corporation, WIND Mobile, Woowa Bros, Xura (formerly Acision), Yahoo, ZTE.

Data & Interactive Forecast

Juniper Research’s highly granular interactive excels enable clients to manipulate Juniper’s forecast data and charts to test their own assumptions using the Interactive Scenario tool; and compare select markets side by side in customised charts and tables. IFxls greatly increase clients’ ability to both understand a particular market and to integrate their own views into the model.
Forecast suite includes:

  • Regional data splits for 8 key regions as well as country level splits for:
    • US
    • Canada
    • UK
    • Germany
    • Japan.
  • Device data splits by mobile handsets and tablet.
  • What-If Analysis tool allowing user the ability to manipulate Juniper’s data for 10 different metrics.
  • Access to the full set of forecast data of 80 tables and over 7,600 data points.

 



目次


1.Market Trends & Competitive Landscape

Table of Contents


1.Mobile Voice & Video Calling
1.1 Introduction...........5
1.2 The Communication Ecosystem.......6
Figure 1.1: Evolution of the Mobile Market...............6
1.2.1 Circuit Switched Technology..........6
Figure 1.2: UK Circuit Switched Call Volume 2011-2014 (Millions of Minutes)......7
1.2.2 VoIP (Voice over IP).........7
1.2.3 mVoIP (Mobile VoIP).........8
1.2.4 Mobile Video Calling.........8

2.Current Market Landscape
2.1 An Ever-changing Market..10
2.1.1 VoLTE (Voice over LTE)................10
2.1.2 WebRTC............10
i.Case Study: EE.....11
Figure 2.1: Repositions & Contributors working on WebRTC  12
ii. Case Study: Tokbox.............13
iii. Mobile Voice HD..
Figure 2.2: Worldwide Network Operators Offering Mobile HD Voice 2009-2014  14
2.1.3 VoWiFi (Voice over Wi-Fi).............14
i.Case Study: T-Mobile, Wi-Fi Alliance & Bright House Networks........16
2.2 Trends, Drivers & Constraints.........17
2.2.1 The All IP World..............17
Figure 2.3: Baseline Analysis of Operator-billed Voice Revenues, Selected Markets, 2008-2013................18
Figure & Table 2.4: The Lost Opportunity: MNO Revenue Loss to OTT mVoIP/IM Services ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2014..19
2.2.2 MNO & OTT Partnerships.............19
2.2.3 Incentives for Alliance...21
2.2.4 Potential Challenges......23
Figure 2.5: Benefits & Restrictions of MNO/OTT Partnership..............23
Figure 2.6: VoLTE Trends, Drivers & Constraints..24
2.3 Conclusions........25

3.Future Strategies
3.1 Potential Movements.........27
3.1.1 Strategies for MNOs.......27
Figure 3.1: MNO Options for Investment...............27
3.1.2 The Future of OTT..........28
3.1.3 MNO/OTT Partnership....30
3.1.4 Future Technologies......30
3.2 Enhanced Voice Services................33
3.2.1 How will Firms Take to Mobile Voice HD?.33
3.2.2 RCS (Rich Communication Services).........33
Figure 3.4: RCS Offerings.......34
3.2.3 Can WebRTC and RCS Work Together?....34
3.2.4 Continuing Concerns.....35
i. WebRTC...............35
ii. RCS.......35
3.3 Conclusions........36

4.Mobile Voice & Video: Player Profiles & Positioning
4.1 Introduction.........38
4.2 Vendor Assessment..........38
4.2.1 Vendor Methodology......38
Figure 4.1: Vendor Capability Criteria...39
4.2.2Limitations and Interpretation......40
4.2.3 Positioning Matrix Results............41
Figure 4.2: Mobile Voice & Video Calling Vendor Positioning Matrix....41
Figure 4.3: Juniper Heatmap for Mobile Voice & Video Calling Vendor Positioning................42
i. A3 Service Providers............43
ii. A2 Service Providers............43
iii.B2 Service Providers...........43
iv. B1 Service Providers...........43
Figure 4.4: Juniper Competitive Web –WhatsApp, LINE and Skype...44
4.3 VoIP Movers & Shakers.....45
4.4 Player Profiles.....47
4.4.1 Amdocs.............47
i. Corporate..............47
Figure 4.5: Amdocs Financial Snapshot 2013-2014..............47
ii. Geographical Spread...........47
iii.Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships..47
iv. High Level View of Offerings..............47
v. Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities..........48
4.4.2 Genband...........48
i. Corporate..............48
ii. Global Reach.......48
iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships................48
iv. High Level View of Offerings.............48
v. Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities..........49
4.4.3 Taqua................49
i. Corporate..............49
ii. Geographical Spread...........49
iii. Key Clients and Strategic Partnerships.............49
iv. High Level View of Offerings.............50
v. Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities..........50
4.4.4 Skype................50
i. Corporate......50
ii. GeographicalSpread...........50
iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships................50
iv. High Level View of Offerings.............50
v. Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities..........51
4.4.5 WhatsApp.........51
i. Corporate Profile..................51

ii. Geographical Spread...........51
iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships................51
iv. High Level View of Offerings.............51
v. Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities..........52
4.4.6 Rebtel................52
i. Corporate..............52
ii. Geographical Spread...........52
iii.Key Clients & Strategic Partners........52
iv. High Level View of Offerings..............52
v. Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities...........53
4.4.7 Nimbuzz............53
i. Corporate..............53
ii. Geographical Spread...........53
iii. Key Clients and Strategic Partnerships.............53
iv. High Level View of Offerings..............53
v. Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities...........54
4.4.8 Daum Kakao....54
i. Corporate Profile....54
4.6: Daum Kakao Financial Snapshot 2013-2014......5
ii. Geographical Spread...........54
iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships..54
iv. High Level View of Offerings..............55
v. Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities...........55
4.4.9 Tango................55
i. Corporate..............55
ii. GeographicalSpread...........56
iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships..56
iv. High Level View of Offerings..............56
v. Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities...........56
4.4.10 Viber................56
i. Corporate..............56
ii. Geographical Spread...........56
iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships................56
iv. High Level View of Offerings.............57
v. Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities..........57
4.4.11 Movius............57
i. Corporate..............57
ii. Global Spread......57
iii.Key Clients and Strategic Partnerships.............57
iv. High Level View of Offerings.............57
v. Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities..........58
4.4.12 CounterPath..................58
i. Corporate Profile..................58
Figure 4.7: Counterparth Financial Snapshot 2013-2014.....58
ii. Geographical Spread...........58
iii.Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships................58
iv. High Level View of Offerings.............59
v. Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities..........59
4.4.13 LINE Corporation..........59
i. Corporate Profile..................59
Figure 4.8: Naver Corporation Financial Performance Snapshot, 2013-2014.....59
ii. Geographical Spread...........59
iii.Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships................60
iv. High Level View of Offerings.............60
v. Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities..........60



2.Market Sizing& Forecasts

Table of Contents


1.VoLTE Market: Forecast Summary & Key Takeaways
1.1 Introduction...........4
1.2 The Communication Ecosystem.......5
Figure 1.1: Evolution of the Mobile Market...............5
1.2.1 Circuit Switched Technology..........5
1.3 VoLTE Forecasts..................6
1.3.1 Methodology.......6
Figure 1.2: VoLTE Users and Forecasts Methodology............7
1.3.2 VoLTE User Forecast........8
Figure & Table 1.3: Number of 4G LTE Mobile Subscribers Using VoLTE (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-1020.....8
1.3.3 ARPU for VoLTE-enabled Services...............9
Figure & Table1.4: ARPU for VoLTE-enabled Services ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-2020..................9
1.3.4 VoLTE Service Revenue Forecasts.............10
Figure & Table 1.5: Operator Billed Revenue Attributable to VoLTE Services ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2014-2020..........10

2.OTT & Operator VoIP: Voice Revenue & Market Prospects
2.1 The Market for Operator Voice Services........12
2.1.1 Current Position..............12
Figure 2.1: Changing Charging Methods: Voice Charging Over Time..12
2.1.2 Methodology.....12
Figure 2.2: Mobile Voice Revenues Forecast Methodology..13
2.1.3 Mobile Handset Users....14
Figure & Table 2.3: Mobile Handset Users (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-2020.........14
2.1.4 Operator Billed ARPU Forecasts................15
Figure & Table 2.4: Monthly Operator Billed Voice & Data ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-2020.................15
2.1.5 Operator Voice Revenue Forecasts –Excluding Carrier OTT Revenue......16
Figure & Table 2.5: Operator Billed Voice Revenues ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-2020...............16
2.2 Mobile VoIP Market Forecasts.........17
2.2.1 Introduction......17
2.2.2 Methodology....17
2.2.3 The Addressable Market...............17
Figure 2.6: OTT Voice Forecast Methodology.......18
2.2.4 Active OTT mVoIP Users..............19
Figure & Table 2.7: Active OTT mVoIP Users (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-2020.........19
2.2.5 Active Users of Third Party OTT VoIP Applications.20
Figure & Table 2.8: Number of mVoIP Users that use a Pure-Play OTT Provider (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-2020...20
2.2.6 Third Party OTT mVoIP Revenues..............21
Figure & Table 2.9: Revenues from OTT mVoIP, Pure-Play mVoIP Subscribers ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-2020................21
2.2.7 Active Carrier OTT mVoIP Users..22
Figure & Table 2.10: Number of Carrier OTT mVoIP Users (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-2020...............22
2.2.8 Carrier OTT Revenues....23
Figure & Table 2.11: Carrier OTT Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-2020..........23
2.2.9 Tablet VoIP Market Forecast.........24
Figure 2.12: Tablet VoIP & Methodology...............24
2.2.10 Active Tablet VoIPUsers.............25
Figure & Table 2.13: Number of Active Tablet VoIP Users (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-2020.................25
2.2.11 Tablet Market mVoIP Revenue Forecasts.26
Figure & Table 2.14: Revenues from VoIP Services over Tablets ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-2020..........26

3.Mobile & Tablet Video Calling: Forecast Summary & Key Takeaways
3.1 Introduction.........28
3.1.1 Methodology.....28
Figure 3.1: Mobile Video Calling Methodology.......29
3.1.2 Active Users of Mobile Video Calling..........30
Figure & Table 3.2: Active Users of Mobile Video Calling (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-2020.................30
3.1.3 Number of Users Paying for a Premium Service......31
Figure & Table 3.3: Number of Users Paying for a Premium Service (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-2020..........31
3.1.4 Annual Revenue Attributable to Mobile Video Calling............32
Figure & Table 3.4: Annual Revenue Attributable to Mobile Video Voice Calling ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-2020..32

4.WebRTC and HD Voice: Forecast Summary & Key Takeaways
4.1 Introduction.........34
4.1.1 Methodology....34
Figure 4.1: WebRTC Methodology.........35
Figure 4.2: HD Voice Methodology.......36
4.1.2 WebRTC Enabled Devices..........37
Figure & Table 4.3: Global Mobile WebRTC Enabled Devices (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-2020...............37
4.1.3 Active Devices Using WebRTC....38
Figure & Table 4.4: Number of Mobile Devices using WebRTC (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-2020.............38
4.1.4 Global HD Voice Capable Devices............39
Figure & Table 4.5: Global HD Voice Enabled Devices (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-2020.........39
4.1.5 Total HD Voice Minutes of Use.....40
Figure & Table 4.6: Total Minutes of Use using HD Voice per Month Split by 8 Key Regions (Millions of minutes).............40
4.2 Conclusion.....42

 

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プレスリリース

[日本語訳]

キャリアOTTの成熟にともない、インターネット音声によって200億ドルの収益をあげる携帯電話会社

モバイルVoIP専業ベンダとの協業へと向かう大きな戦略転換を反映

英国ハンプシャー、2014年1月28日

携帯電話ネットワーク事業者は、インターネットベースの音声やキャリアOTT(キャリアによるOver The Top)に関する戦略によって、2018年までに200億ドル近い収益をあげるだろうと、英国調査会社ジュニパーリサーチ社の調査レポート「今後の音声サービス戦略 2014-2018年: mVoIP、キャリアOTT、モバイル経由のテレビ電話 - Future Voice Strategies:mVoIP, Carrier OTT and Mobile Video Calling 2014-2018」は報告している。これらの収益は、新しいサービスプロポジションや独立系のOTTサービスプロバイダとの連携によるバンドルによって生じるものである。

モバイルVoIPが主流に

この調査レポートは、OTTサービスプロバイダは既に多くのモバイルVoIPユーザを獲得しており、今後は、エンドユーザとの課金の関係やサービス品質に関する信頼性のある従来のキャリアを巻き込むような収益戦略が多くなるだろうと述べている。

この調査レポートの著者Anthony Cox氏は、「OTTプロバイダは従来のキャリアに注目し、またその逆も同様である。複数のデバイスで一つの番号を使えるというような、真に新しいサービスを作り出すよう、両者は連携しつつある」と述べている。

VoLTEの広範囲での採用

この調査レポートは、提供サービスをますます充実させ、収益の上がるサービスを開発している専業のモバイルVoIP企業にも注目している。また、直接的な収益性は低いものの、事業者に有益なネットワーク効率の向上のために、MNO(モバイル事業者)に幅広く採用されているVoLTE(LTE上の音声)にも注目している。

この調査レポートの、その他の主な注目点は以下の通り。

  • 標準的な回線交換による収益は全般的に下落するが、一部は新たなOTTによる収益で相殺されるだろう
  • モバイルビデオメッセージング市場の早期から登場したタンゴ(Tango)が健闘している
  • 多国籍事業者のOTT収益化戦略を創造する上で、KinetoやAmdocsなどのシステムインテグレータとソフトウェア専門企業がますます重要になるだろう

[プレスリリース原文]

Press Release: Mobile Operators to Generate $20bn from Internet Voice as 'Carrier OTT' Matures, Juniper Research Finds

Reflects important strategy shift towards engagement with pure-play mVoIP providers

Hampshire, UK – 28th January 2014: Mobile network operators will generate revenues of close to $20 billion by 2018 through strategies involving internet based voice or 'carrier OTT', a new report from Juniper Research has found. These Internet voice revenues will be derived from new service propositions and bundles delivered through partnerships with stand-alone OTT (Over The Top) service providers.

Mobile VoIP becoming mainstream

The report – Future Voice Strategies: mVoIP, Carrier OTT and Mobile Video Calling 2014-2018 - found that while OTT service providers have been successful in creating impressive user bases of mVoIP customers, many future revenue generating strategies are likely to involve traditional carriers that have a billing relationship with the end-user and guaranteed QoS (Quality of Service).

According to report author Anthony Cox, ‘OTT providers are turning to traditional carriers and vice versa. Together they are forming partnerships to create genuinely new service propositions, such as the ability to port a number across several devices.’

Widespread Adoption for VoLTE

The report also observes that stand-alone mobile VoIP players are becoming increasingly sophisticated in their service offerings and are developing more ways to monetise services. Meanwhile, VoLTE (Voice over LTE) will see widespread adoption among MNOs for the increased network efficiency it affords the operator, even though direct revenues will be low.

Other key findings from the report include:
•    Standard Circuit switched revenues will decline overall though this will be partially offset by new OTT revenues.
•    A clear winner, Tango, has emerged in the market for OTT mobile video calling though as a sector mobile video calling is still on the starting blocks.
•    Systems Integrators and software specialists such as Kineto and Amdocs will become increasingly important in creating OTT monetisation strategies for multinational operators.

A new whitepaper, ‘Voice ~ Hitting the High Notes’ is available to download from the Juniper website together with further details of the full report and the attendant Interactive Forecast Excel, which enables clients to interrogate the assumptions behind Juniper’s forecasts and create alternative future outputs.

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