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有機EL照明の市場機会:2017-2027年:予測、技術、関連企業 | 材料、製造コスト、モジュール、LEDの競争分析

OLED Lighting Opportunities 2017-2027: Forecasts, Technologies, Players

Materials, manufacturing costs, modules and LED competitive assessment

 

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IDTechEx
アイディーテックエックス
2017年3月GBP4,650
電子ファイル(1-5ユーザライセンス)
323 313

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サマリー

この調査レポートは、有機EL照明 (OLED照明)を調査し、市場や技術の解説・分析と2027年までの市場予測を掲載しています。

主な掲載内容 (目次より抜粋)

  1. エグゼクティブサマリー
  2. イントロダクション
  3. LED照明
  4. 有機EL技術
  5. 有機EL照明の性能と製品
  6. 有機EL材料
  7. 有機ELパネルの製造
  8. LEDと有機LEDの比較:将来市場展望
  9. 企業情報
    1. LED照明
    2. 有機EL照明製品サプライヤ
    3. 有機EL照明の有機材料
    4. 有機EL照明の構造材料
    5. 有機ELパネル製造/装置サプライヤ

Description

 

OLED lighting is an emerging solid-state lighting technology. It potentially provides a route into the large and growing global lighting market. The lighting market is however complex as it is a highly fragmented space thanks to the existence of a broad technology mix and a diversity of customer needs.

 
The market segments include residential, office, industrial, outdoor, hospitality, shop and automotive. Each sector attaches a different degree of importance to upfront cost, energy efficiency, lifetime, light intensity, colour warmth and design features. This explains why the technology mix in each sector is different.
 
IDTechEx assess the market potential for OLED lighting across all major lighting sectors. We forecast that the market will grow to 2.5 billion USD in 2027 (optimistic scenario). The market growth will however be very slow until 2019/2020 where the overall sales at panel level will remain below 200 million USD globally.
 
Our forecast is segmented by sector. We find that architectural, hospitality and shop segments will be the first to grow as the prize design parameters the most. Automotive is also promising given the recent announcements by companies like BWM but lifetime and reliability still need to be improved. Residential, office, and outdoor to follow later once cost decreases and lifetime is prolonged.
 
OLED lighting has the potential to efficiently emit warm light across large surfaces and to bring new and novel form factors into the lighting sector. These are strong selling points on their own but the challenge is in that they are not always unique.
 
In particular, inorganic LED lighting has arrived first onto the market. Its technology, cost structure and supply base have dramatically improved, opening a large performance and cost gap between LEDs and the younger OLEDs. The performance gap has not drastically narrowed despite progress in OLEDs with companies such as Konica Minolta reporting champion 131 lm/W panels.
 
The challenge facing OLEDs is therefore identifying paths for differentiation. The differentiation challenge is also critical strategy question because many companies such as Osram and Phillips Lighting already have successful and growing business in the LED sector. Investment in OLED can provide a hedged bet and also a means of standing out in an increasingly commoditised LED market.
 
Figure 1: OLED vs LED
 
 
Source: IDTechEx
 
 
Surface emission is a possible differentiator although inorganic LEDs are also able to create effective surface emissions, despite being a point light source, thanks to waveguides. Flexibility is also another way although OLEDs themselves also face critical technology challenges that stand in the way of them achieving flexibility. However, the pressure building up in the value chain combined with commitments from large players such as Konica Minolta and LG Chem suggests these barriers are nearly resolved. The ability to offer customised or improved design features is also a selling point. In particular, the potential to act at the luminaire level as a slightly modified panel can be a competitive advantage.
 
Technology assessment
IDTechEx has been tracking the market for OLED lighting for several years. We have provided a comprehensive and detailed technology assessment section. Here, we cover both LED and OLED lighting technologies, assessing the fabrication processes, material compositions, technology roadmaps, and key players.
 
Moreover, we appraise the device attributes of each technology and examine parameters such as colour warmth and controllability, flexibility, efficiency, surface emission, lifetime, wafer size and luminaire design.
 
Critically, IDTechEx also has strong knowledge on enabling technologies in the OLED lighting ecosystem such as emerging thin film barrier/encapsulation technologies or transparent conducting films. For example, we have interviewed or visited 20 companies commercialising barriers including thin film, ALD and flexible glass technologies, and more than 27 suppliers working on a variety of transparent conducting film technologies such as silver nanowires, metal mesh, carbon nanotubes, etc.
 
 
Market assessment
The second part provides a detailed assessment of the market. Here, we provide ten-year market forecast segmented by lighting sector at the panel level. Our market forecasts are expressed in value, area coverage and also equivalent unit numbers. We also provide cost projections in $ per sqm and $ per klm split by the layer (OLED materials, encapsulations, integrated substrates, etc).
 
Moreover, we provide critical assessments of the value proposition of OLED technology in each lighting sector and use our analysis to build up our market share forecasts in each segment. Here, we analyse parameters such as light quality, technology mix diversity, price sensitivity, light controllability, lifetime and light intensity. Furthermore, we provide the latest industry updates and profiles on players in the industry such as Panasonic, LG Chem, Osram, Phillips Lighting, Sumitomo Chemical.
 
Figure 2: Market drivers



目次

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - PDF SLIDES
2. INTRODUCTION TO LIGHTING
2.1. Natural and Artificial Light
2.1.1. Evaluation of Artificial Lights
2.1.2. Colour Characterization
2.1.3. The Traditional Lighting Industry
2.2. The Lighting Market
2.2.1. Light Fixtures
2.2.2. Lamps
2.2.3. Application Segments
2.3. Lighting Technologies
2.3.1. Incandescents
2.3.2. Halogens
2.3.3. Linear Fluorescent Lamps (LFL)
2.3.4. Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFL)
2.3.5. High intensity discharge lamps
2.3.6. Induction Lamps
2.4. SSL Lighting Drivers and Challenges
2.4.1. Energy savings
2.4.2. Low maintenance and long lifetime
2.4.3. Special operating environments
2.4.4. Digital controls
2.4.5. Display Backlights
3. LED LIGHTING
3.1. Device Structure
3.1.1. Chips
3.1.2. Phosphors
3.1.3. Quantum Dots
3.1.4. LED Packages
3.1.5. Diffuse LED Luminaires
3.1.6. Recessed Ceiling Fixtures
3.1.7. Ceiling Mounted Flat Panel LED Luminaires
3.1.8. LED Pendants
3.1.9. Desk and Table Lamps
3.1.10. Under-Cabinet Lights
3.2. Efficiency Trajectory
3.3. Technology Options and Performance Levels
3.3.1. Efficient Production of Green Light
3.3.2. LEDs for Ultra-thin Light Guides
3.3.3. Light Guide Development
3.3.4. Embedded LEDs
3.4. Costs
4. OLED TECHNOLOGY
4.1. OLED Structures
4.1.2. Transparent vs opaque
4.1.3. Rigid vs flexible
4.1.4. Single stack or tandem
4.1.5. Small Molecules versus Polymers
4.1.6. Fluorescent vs Phosphorescent Emitters
4.2. Underlying Structures
4.2.1. Substrate
4.2.2. Extraction enhancement
4.2.3. Transparent conductor
4.3. Active Layers
4.3.2. Hole injection (HIL)
4.3.3. Hole transport (HTL)
4.3.4. Emissive layer
4.3.5. Electron transport
4.3.6. Electron injection
4.3.7. Charge generation
4.4. Top Layers
4.4.1. Cathode
4.4.2. Light extraction
4.4.3. Cover materials
4.4.4. Sealants and desiccants
4.4.5. Surface barriers
5. OLED LIGHTING PERFORMANCE AND PRODUCTS
5.1. Performance Measures
5.1.1. Efficacy
5.1.2. Colour
5.1.3. Lifetime and Reliability
5.2. OLED Modules
5.3. Drivers and Controls
5.4. Luminaires
5.5. Roadmaps of Future Performance
6. OLED LIGHTING MATERIALS
6.1. Higher Efficacy
6.1.2. Extraction efficiency
6.1.3. Electrical Efficiency
6.1.4. Internal Quantum Efficiency
6.1.5. Spectral efficiency
6.1.6. Driver efficiency
6.1.7. Beam Shaping
6.2. Longer Lifetime
6.2.1. Short Prevention
6.2.2. Organic Material Stability
6.2.3. Encapsulation
6.3. Cost Reduction
6.3.2. Substrate and Encapsulation
6.3.3. Organic Materials
7. OLED PANEL MANUFACTURING
7.2. Vapor Processing
7.2.2. Substrate Preparation
7.2.3. Evaporation
7.2.4. Electrode Deposition
7.2.5. Patterning
7.3. Solution Processing
7.3.2. Slot-die coating
7.3.3. Contact printing
7.3.4. Jet printing
7.3.5. Subtractive Patterning
7.4. Roll-to-Roll Processing
7.4.2. Deposition of Barrier Layers
7.5. Cost Reduction Drivers
7.5.2. Simplified Patterning
7.5.3. Equipment Size Scaling
7.5.4. Cycle Time
7.5.5. Encapsulation
7.5.6. Solution Processing and R2R Handling
7.5.7. Simpler Alternatives
7.6. Market Timing
8. LEDS VS OLEDS: FUTURE MARKET PROSPECTS
8.2. OLED Attributes
8.2.2. Soft Lighting
8.2.3. Form Factors: Thin, Light Weight, Flexible, Irregular Shapes
8.2.4. Transparent
8.2.5. Colour Quality
8.3. Additional Features for OLEDs
8.3.1. Dynamic colour
8.3.2. Beam Shaping
8.4. Economic factors
8.4.1. LED luminaire price trends
8.4.2. Total cost of ownership
8.4.3. Price forecasts for OLED luminaires
8.4.4. Efficacy Targets for OLEDs
8.5. Special Market Opportunities for OLEDs
8.5.1. Overhead Lighting
8.5.2. Task Lighting
8.5.3. Architectural Lighting
8.5.4. Signs and backlights
8.5.5. Mood Lighting
8.5.6. Vehicles
8.5.7. Novelty Lighting
8.6. Market Forecasts
9. COMPANY PROFILES
9.1. LED Lighting
9.1.1. GE
9.1.2. QD Vision
9.2. OLED Lighting Product Suppliers
9.2.1. Acuity Brands
9.2.2. Astron Fiamm (Blackbody)
9.2.3. First O-Lite
9.2.4. Kaneka
9.2.5. Konica Minolta
9.2.6. Ledon/Tridonic
9.2.7. LG Chem
9.2.8. Lumiotec
9.2.9. Moser Baer Technologies
9.2.10. OLEDWorks
9.2.11. Osram Opto
9.2.12. Panasonic
9.2.13. Philips Lighting
9.2.14. Samsung
9.2.15. Sumitomo Chemical
9.2.16. Toshiba
9.2.17. Verbatim
9.2.18. Visionox
9.2.19. WAC Lighting
9.3. OLED Lighting Organic Materials
9.3.1. Aglaia Tech
9.3.2. BASF
9.3.3. Borun Chemical
9.3.4. CDT
9.3.5. Cheil Industries
9.3.6. Doosan Electronics
9.3.7. Dow Chemical
9.3.8. Duksan Hi-Metal
9.3.9. DuPont
9.3.10. E-Ray Optoelectronics
9.3.11. Heraeus
9.3.12. Hodogaya Chemical
9.3.13. Idemitsu Kosan
9.3.14. Jilin O&E
9.3.15. Johnson Matthey
9.3.16. LG Chemicals
9.3.17. Merck
9.3.18. Mitsubishi Chemicals
9.3.19. Mitsui Chemicals
9.3.20. Novaled
9.3.21. Plextronics
9.3.22. PPG Industries
9.3.23. Sun Fine Chem
9.3.24. Universal Display Corporation
9.4. OLED Lighting Structural Materials
9.4.1. Arkema
9.4.2. Beneq
9.4.3. Cambrios
9.4.4. Corning
9.4.5. DELO
9.4.6. DuPont Teijin Films
9.4.7. Intrinsiq Materials
9.4.8. Novaled
9.4.9. Poly IC
9.4.10. SAES Getters
9.4.11. Schott
9.5. OLED Panel Manufacturing/Equipment Suppliers
9.5.1. Aixtron
9.5.2. Applied Materials
9.5.3. Beneq
9.5.4. Fluxim
9.5.5. NovaCentrix
9.5.6. nTact
9.5.7. Sung An Machinery (SAM)
9.5.8. Sunic
9.5.9. Toray
9.5.10. Ulvac
9.5.11. Veeco
9.5.12. Xenon Corporation
  IDTECHEX RESEARCH REPORTS AND CONSULTANCY
   

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1.1. Revenue Forecast in €Bn for General Lighting Fixtures
1.2. Installed US Base of Lamps in 2010 in millions of units
1.3. Data on lamps in the US installed base (2010)
1.4. Market growth (€B) for each application segment 2012-2020
1.5. Market share by technology (%) in 2012 for each application segment
1.6. Introduction of restrictions on sales of incandescent bulbs by country
1.7. Tests of CFL recessed downlights (DOE Caliper Program)
1.8. Targets set in LED Roadmap (2002)
2.1. Caliper Tests of Recessed Troffers
2.2. Technology Targets for LED Packages (DOE SSL MYPP 2012)
2.3. Performance targets for warm white LED luminaires (DOE SSL MYPP 2012)
4.1. Efficiency of phosphorescent emitters (UDC 2012)
4.2. Efficiency of light emitting polymers (CDT 2012)
4.3. Performance of OLED panel on plastic substrate (UDC 2012)
4.4. Lifetimes of OLED Panels
4.5. LG Chem Performance Roadmap
4.6. Performance Roadmap for Philips
4.7. Performance Roadmap for Panasonic Idemitsu (PIOL)
5.1. Comparison of internal and external scattering layers (First O-Lite 2012)
5.2. Direct Cost Projections for Panel Production by Vapor Processing ($/m2)
5.3.

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