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光インターコネクト市場と技術予測 2013-2020年:第2巻 オンチップとチップトゥチップ

Revenue Opportunities for Optical Interconnects: Market and Technology Forecast – 2013 to 2020 Vol II: On-Chip and Chip-to-Chip

 

出版社 出版年月電子版価格
Communications Industry Researchers
CIR社
2013年9月US$3,495
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この調査レポートは、世界の光インターコネクトの最新の市場発展をチップレベルで分析し、開発や商業的な進展についても記載している。従来のCPUチップと最新のアーキテクチャ、光インターコネクトのビジネスチャンス、メタルインターコネクトやカーボンナノチューブなどのその他のインターコネクトとの比較も行っている。今後10年間のロードマップと、チップレベルでの光インターコネクトの商機とその市場規模や、主要な企業の概要なども記載している。

光インターコネクトに関する調査レポート 「光インターコネクト市場と技術予測 2012-2020年:第1巻 ボードトゥボードとラックベース」もご参照ください。

 

The traditional architectural and material assumptions with regard to how integrated circuits are fabricated have been challenged in recent years and the semiconductor industry is looking for new solutions. Power and thermal issues add to this apparent crisis in the semiconductor industry.

One of the most important problems is the so-called “interconnect bottleneck,” that is the tendency for data traffic jams to appear both on-chip and chip-to-chip. The interconnect bottleneck is emerging well before Moore’s Law completely runs out of steam, but reappears in differing forms in some of the new architectures designed to make chip scaling easier.

The “obvious” solution is to deploy fiber optics; which is usually the way to go whenever and wherever there is a bandwidth problem. But fiber optic solutions to on-chip and chip-to-chip interconnection is something that will be hard to develop for commercial chip products. Producing photonic devices that are small enough and inexpensive enough to be used at the chip level is an immensely difficult requirement.

In this report, we analyze the latest developments in optical interconnection at the chip level and the progress in this area that is being made by important research teams throughout the world. Both R&D and commercial development are discussed.

The report looks at this issue from the perspective of classic CPU chips as well as the latest architectures, and the opportunities for optical interconnection are compared to a possible future for metal interconnects and interconnect alternatives that are even more exotic than photonics; carbon nanotubes, especially.

The report also contains a 10-year roadmap that explains where and when the commercial opportunities for optical interconnection at the chip level will emerge and how much they will be worth. We also profile the leading firms and research efforts involved in designing and implementing on-chip and chip-to-chip optical interconnection.

 

Chapter One: Introduction

1.1 Background to this Report

CIR last published a report on the optical interconnect market in 2010. The goal of the report at the time was to provide a full analysis of the entire optical interconnect business. In this year’s CIR analysis we are covering the market in two reports, focusing primarily on interconnects in the chip-to-chip and on-chip sector in this volume (Volume II). In the previously published volume (Volume I), we covered the rack-based and board-to-board part of the optical interconnect market.

Many of the key drivers for optical interconnection in all parts of the network are the same; the usual suspects being faster processors, more video, big data, clouds, faster I/O and network, and so on. However, the character of the chip-to-chip and on-chip sector is sufficiently different from the rack-based and board-to-board to warrant a separate report. In the more established rack-based/board-to-board market segment it is also clear how one makes money; by selling off-the-shelf interconnect products to data center managers. In chip-based interconnection, new offerings look more like enabling technologies than sources of revenue generation.

1.1.1 Character of Chip-Related Optical Interconnection: Players, Products and Opportunities

There is a fuzzy line between the products and technologies used in optical interconnection at the chip level and that used at the rack-based and board-to-board level. Nonetheless, it is probably fair to say that the markets discussed in this volume of CIR’s optical interconnection analysis focuses on newer types of technology and leading edge products, and involves a somewhat different group of players.

With regard to the participants in this market, we note that they tend to be either giant multinationals with huge R&D budgets (e.g., IBM and Intel) or smaller, technology oriented firms whose business proposition revolves around novel technology (e.g., Luxtera). And, although it is not always that obvious, CIR also believes that there is considerable interest in optical interconnection from materials firms of various kinds. There may be several aspects of optical interconnection that brings the materials firms to the market, but one important factor is certainly the prospects of using polymer waveguides in chip-level optical interconnection.

The products that can potentially generate revenue in the chip-related optical interconnection space include both sub-systems and components. Also overshadowing this whole market are various approaches to optical integration, including those that use high-priced semiconductors (principally InP) and also silicon photonics. With regard to the sub-systems, what we are talking about here is miniaturized optical assemblies (optical engines) as well as optical backplanes of various kinds. With regards to the components, what we are talking about are the afore-mentioned waveguides and especially lasers.

1.1.2 Optical Engines and Optical Backplanes: Prospects for Immediate Revenues?

The two technologies in the chip-to-chip interconnect space that seem to have some real potential of short-term revenue generation—although for somewhat different reasons—are optical engines and optical backplanes.

Optical engines: The term “optical engine” has a number of different meanings, but in the context of optical interconnection, what we are talking about here are miniaturized optical assemblies. The firms that are important here are Avago, Kotura, Reflex Photonics and Samtec. CIR anticipates that more firms will be coming to join them in this part of the optical interconnect market in the near future. Indeed, some other firms already have solutions that are close to being a optical engine, but have not been productized as such.

The reason that we think that optical engines are so important from a business standpoint is that they offer something close to being an off-the-shelf solution to board firms, who would not normally have the expertise to do optics on the board. So they are an introductory solution where the market needs an introductory solution. And in many ways, the optical engine, despite that fancy name, is just an optical assembly; a concept that most people in the communications sector are familiar with,

In addition, optical engines, can be used for board-to-board interconnection, so this provides yet another source of revenue for manufacturers of optical engines.

Optical backplanes: The other prospect for early revenues in the chip interconnect space is the optical backplanes. This is an old idea that has been attracting growing interest in the past year to two years. The consensus is that eventually backplanes on large servers, routers and switches must go optical; either because of the limits on electrical reach or on data rate performance. With data centers ramping up to support “big data” style computing requiring a high degree of parallelism and hence lots of interconnection, it may be that the era of the optical backplane has come round at last, with important firms such as Cisco and Juniper willing to pay the price of deploying optical backplanes.

Optical backplanes can be implemented in a number of ways. The simplest conceptually—and therefore perhaps requiring the least re-design is to replace electrical wires with EO-converters and waveguides. But a more complete solution is a fully optical backplane, which is the complete equivalent of an electrical backplane but with optical chips. But in either case, CIR believes that we are past the point where optical backplanes are just a topic of academic discussion.

1.1.3 Deeper: Future Enabling Technologies for Chip-Based Optical Interconnection

Optical engines and optical backplanes have immediate revenue potential. However, they are really just the beginning of optical interconnection at the chip level. In the future, there will have to be innovations that take optical interconnection to a point where it can function on a chip. While current commercial products in this space have a clear conceptual link to current data center technology, CIR believes that some new leaps of technological “faith” are going to have to happen if optical interconnection is going to move to the next stage. With all this in mind, CIR believes that there are three promising enabling technologies that could help here.

Silicon photonics: Silicon photonics is really just a form of optical integration, which uses CMOS technology designed for the semiconductor industry as its basis. In addition to the ability to feed off the vast accumulated knowledge of silicon physics, silicon photonics makes it easy to create hybrid optical/electrical chips. This would be a huge step for optical interconnection at the chip level, because optical devices could be built into a monolithically integrated chip along with electronic functionality, making optical interconnects almost free.

The optical properties of silicon do not lend themselves easily to making optical components in commercial quantities. Nonetheless, silicon waveguides are already commercialized. The big breakthroughs, if they come, will be in active components using silicon. The use of silicon photonics to build lasers is very speculative at the present time and it remains a strong possibility that such lasers will never be commercialized. If silicon lasers do become a reality, however, they could enable the development of a transponder-on-a-chip, which would be a truly revolutionary development.

At this point, most of the work in this space seems to be coming from one company—Intel. However, in the last couple of years, Intel has given much less prominence to its silicon laser efforts than it once did. Nonetheless, a breakthrough in the silicon laser space could be the single most important development, creating opportunities for optical interconnection at the chip level.

Other kinds of optical integration: If silicon photonics does not get optical interconnection where it needs to be then probably it will be up to more conventional forms of optical integration to get it there. Optical integration can be defined by the kind of material it uses. Most optical integration uses the usual compound semiconductors that are associated with active optical devices; notably InP.

New forms of hybrid integration could emerge in which active optical components were combined with silicon devices. The end result would produce similar functionality to the silicon photonics devices just mentioned, but at a higher cost for the final device. The advantage is that the photonics community has a much clearer idea how to produce this kind of hybrid chip than the active silicon photonics chip just mentioned.

Quantum dot lasers: Finally, something of a long shot, but quantum dot lasers seem well suited for certain kinds of interconnection and they have been available commercially for about four years now. QD-enhanced VCSELs have also been proposed and these, too, may have applications in interconnection.

1.2 Objectives of this Report

These are all fascinating possibilities and they become even more fascinating if there is clear path to profits through their development. With all this in mind, this report is intended to provide in-depth analysis of the optical interconnect market at the chip-level; which is to say on-chip and chip-to-chip interconnection. In particular, the report is designed to identify the opportunities in this space for makers of optical assemblies, PCBs, backplanes, lasers, waveguides, fiber and other photonic components and materials,

The report also includes an eight-year forecast of the chip level interconnection with breakouts by type of application. From a geographical perspective this report is worldwide in scope. A companion volume covering optical interconnection at the rack- and board-to-board level is also available from CIR.

 

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目次

Executive Summary

E.1 "Interconnect Bottleneck" Spells Opportunities for the Photonics Industry

E.1.1 The Device Opportunity: Small and Cheap

E.1.2 The Integration Dimension: How Do You Get an Optical Link on a Chip?

E.1.3 An Opportunity Analysis Matrix for Chip-Level Optical Interconnection

E.2 Challenges for Chip-Level Optical Interconnection

E.2.1 Danger of Overshooting the Market

E.2.2 Technological Risks

E.3 Roadmap Considerations and Summary 10-year Forecast for Chip Level Interconnection

E.4 Two Companies to Watch: IBM and Intel

E.4.1 IBM

E.4.2 Intel

Chapter One: Introduction

1.1 Background to this Report

1.1.1 Character of Chip-Related Optical Interconnection: Players, Products and Opportunities

1.1.2 Optical Engines and Optical Backplanes: Prospects for Immediate Revenues?

1.1.3 Deeper: Future Enabling Technologies for Chip-Based Optical Interconnection

1.2 Objectives of this Report

1.3 Methodology and Information Sources for this Report

Chapter Two: Analysis of Demand for On-Chip/Chip-to-Chip Interconnection

2.1 Megatrends Driving the Need for Optical Interconnect at All Levels

2.1.1 The Next Data Rate Surge: Coming Soon to a Data Center Near You

2.1.2 Interconnection's Coming Big Data Boom

2.2 Chip-to-Chip and On-Chip Interconnect: Replacing Copper

2.2.1 Chip-to-Chip and Module-to-Module PCBs

2.2.2 On-Chip Interconnect

2.3 Limits to Electronic Interconnects

2.3.1 Strategies for Dealing with the Limits of Electrical Interconnect

2.3.2 Materials Strategies for Future Metal Interconnect

2.4 Drivers and Threats for Optical Interconnect

2.4.1 Advantages of Optical Interconnects

2.4.2 The Growing Size of the Addressable Market for Optical Interconnect

2.4.3 Market Threats to Optical Interconnect

2.5 Moore's Law, Scaling and Interconnect

2.5.1 Current Prognosis for Moore's Law

2.5.2 Moore's Law and Copper Interconnect

2.6 Multicore Processing and Interconnect

2.6.1 Opportunities for Optical Interconnection in Multicore Processors

2.7 3D Chips and Interconnect

2.7.1 3D Chips and 2.5D Chips

2.7.2 Opportunities for Optical Interconnection in 3D Processors

2.8 A Possible Transition to Optical Computing and Communications: Interconnect Implications

2.8.1 All-Optical Backplanes

2.8.2 Optical Crossconnects

2.8.3 Optical Computing

2.9 Potential for Moving to Nanocarbon Computers

2.10 Key Points Made in this Chapter

Chapter Three: Technologies for On-Chip/Chip-to-Chip Interconnect

3.1 Future Technologies for Chip-Level Interconnect

3.2 VCSELs for Interconnect: Getting Faster

3.2.1 Evolution of VCSEL Technology

3.3 Silicon Lasers

3.3.1 Intel, Lasers and Silicon Photonics

3.3.2 Skorpios

3.4 Quantum Dot Lasers

3.4.1 Firms Supplying QD Lasers for Optical Interconnection

3.5 Optical Engines

3.5.1 Optical Engine Technology

3.5.2 Optical Engine Suppliers

3.5.3 Eight-Year Forecast of Chip-Level Optical Interconnect Using Optical Engines

3.6 The Role of Optical Integration in Future Chip-Based Interconnection

3.6.1 Monolithic versus Hybrid Integration

3.6.2 Integration, Interconnect and InP

3.6.3 Eight-Year Forecast of Chip-Level Optical Interconnect Using PICs

3.7 Silicon Photonics

3.7.1 Silicon Photonics and On-Chip Photonic Interconnects

3.7.2 Eight-Year Forecast of Chip-Level Optical Interconnect Using Silicon Photonics

3.7.3 IBM and Silicon Photonics

3.8 Opportunities for Fiber, Waveguides and Free-Space Optics in Chip-Level Interconnect

3.8.1 Fiber and Interconnection

3.8.2 The Role of Polymer (and Other) Waveguides in Chip-Based Interconnection

3.8.3 The Role of Free-Space Optics in Chip-Based Interconnection

3.8.4 Eight-Year Forecast of Fiber, Wave Guides, and Free-Space Optics for Chip-Level Interconnect

3.9 Use of Carbon Nanotubes and Graphene for Chip-Level Optical Interconnect

3.10 Key Points Made in this Chapter

Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report

About the Author

 

List of Exhibits

Exhibit E-1: Opportunity Analysis Matrix for Chip-Level Optical Interconnection

Exhibit E-2: Summary of Chip-Level Optical Interconnect Shipments: Revenue Generation by Product ($Millions)

Exhibit E-3: Summary of Chip-Level Optical Interconnect Shipments: Revenue Generation by Location ($Millions)

Exhibit 2-1: Selected Megatrends Impacting Optical Interconnect

Exhibit 2-2: Impact of Demand Side Trends on the Need for Optical Interconnect

Exhibit 2-3: Strategies for Avoiding the Interconnect Bottleneck

Exhibit 2-4: Advantages and Disadvantages for Optical Interconnection for Chip-Level Environments

Exhibit 3-1: Chip-Level Optical Interconnection Paradigms

Exhibit 3-2: Chip-Level Laser Paradigms

Exhibit 3-3: Diagram of a Simple VCSEL Structure

Exhibit 3-4: VCSEL Data Rate Evolution

Exhibit 3-5: Selected Optical Engine Firms and Products

Exhibit 3-6: Eight-Year Forecasts of Chip-Level Optical Interconnect Shipments Using Optical Engines: Revenue Generation ($Millions)

Exhibit 3-7: Opportunities for Optical Integration in High-Speed Networks

Exhibit 3-8: Eight-Year Forecast of Chip-Level Optical Interconnect Shipments Using PICs: Revenue Generation ($Millions)

Exhibit 3-9: Eight-Year Forecast of Chip-Level Optical Interconnect Shipments Using Active Silicon Photonics: Revenue Generation ($Millions)

Exhibit 3-10: Chip-Level Optical Interconnection Paradigms

Exhibit 3-11: Eight-Year Forecast of Chip-Level Optical Interconnect Shipments Using Fiber, Waveguides and Free-Space Optics ($Millions)

 

 

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プレスリリース

[日本語訳]

チップレベルの光インターコネクト市場は2019年に5億2000万ドルの収益を生み出すだろうと予測

ヴァージニア州シャーロットビル、2013年10月7日
米国調査会社CIR社の調査レポート「光インターコネクト市場と技術予測 2012-2020年:第2巻 オンチップとチップトゥチップ - Revenue Opportunities for Optical Interconnects: Market and Technology Forecast - 2013 to 2020 Vol II: On-Chip and Chip-to-Chip」は、チップレベルの光インターコネクト市場は数十億の出荷数と収益が見込まれ、実現可能市場は2019年の5億2000万ドルから2021年には10億2000万ドルに達するだろうと予測している。この調査レポートは、2009年の調査レポートの更新版である。

この調査レポートは、光学エンジン、インターコネクトベースの光集積回路(フォトニック集積回路)、シリコンフォトニクス、フリースペースオプティックス(FSO)の4種類の光インターコネクトを調査している。アクティブコンポーネント、ファイバ、導波管伝送メディアに区分して、数量と金額の9年間の予測を行っている。化合物半導体、シリコン、ポリマー(重合体)の導波管、VCSEL(Vertical Cavity-Surface Emitting Laser、垂直キャビティ面発光レーザ)、シリコンレーザ、 量子ドットレーザなどについて調査している。その他、チップレベルの光インターコネクト分野の最新の事業動向や技術戦略についても記載している。

この調査レポートの対象企業は、アバゴ、シスコ、コーニング、ダウ・ケミカル、デュポン、Finisar、富士通、古河電工、IBM、インテル、ジュニパー、マイクロン、Optical Interlinks、QDレーザ、リフレクスフォトニクス、Samtec、住友電気工業、テラキシオン、東京エレクトロン、ULM Photonics、VI Systemsなどである。

調査レポートの内容

並列コンピューティングがますます一般的になり、マルチコアプロセッサや3Dチップの登場によって、オンチップでもチップトゥーチップでも、データ通信の渋滞を引き起こしている。しかしこの調査レポートは、これらの動向がチップレベルの光インターコネクトのビジネスチャンスを形成するだろうと述べている。

アバゴ、Finisar、IBM、Samtecは、チップレベルのインターコネクト用の光学エンジンを提案している。これらの小型化した光アセンブリは、この用途においては現在最も成熟した技術で、2019年に2億3500万ドルの収益となるだろう。しかし、次世代のExaScale(エクサスケール、超大型)のスーパーコンピュータの複雑な光インターコネクトの環境においては、光学エンジンはコネクタやヒートシンク(放熱器/板)が付属するために大きすぎることになるだろう。

一方、マルチコアプロセッサや3Dチップの登場は、現在のコンピュータのスピードは、CPU相互やメモリデバイスとのやり取りの速度に依存していることを表している。だとすれば、信頼性が高くロスが少なく高速なチップ間のインターコネクトこそが重要になるだろう。インターコネクトの伝送速度の必要条件は、現在でも数百回に達する。

光学エンジンには前述のような制限があるため、リン化インジウムやガリウムヒ素ベースのコンパクトなフォトニック集積回路インターコネクトデバイスにビジネスチャンスがでてくるだろう。CIR社は、これらの市場は2019年の1億2000万ドルから2021年には2億7500万ドルに達するだろうと予測している。しかし、シリコンプロセッサやメモリチップにフォトニック集積回路インターコネクトをボンディングすることは、技術的に難しく、高価でもあるだろう。そのため、フォトニック集積回路やVCSEL技術企業で、インターコネクトにビジネスチャンスを求める企業はあまりない。

シリコンフォトニクスは魅力的な技術だが、インテルなどの企業は、長年にわたってシリコンを使ったアクティブ光デバイスを作ろうと苦闘している。シリコンレーザ技術のブレークスルーは、電子情報処理と光統合の両方の完全統合ができるひとつの光インターコネクトといった重要な開発にあるといえよう。チップレベルの光インターコネクトの発展には、より高速なVCSELも重要であるだろう。いくつかの企業や研究機関が、55Gbpsまでを扱える高速VCSELを発表しているが、そのようなレーザの広範な商用化はまだである。量子ドットによるVCSELも提供されており、インターコネクトでの用途があるだろう。
 

[プレスリリース原文]

New CIR Report Predicts That Chip-Level Optical Interconnect Market Will Generate $520 million in Revenues by 2019

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