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フラッシュメモリと3D XPointメモリの用途と市場 2016-2022年

Flash and XPoint Memory Applications and Markets: 2016-2022 (CS100XFA-2018)

 

出版社 出版年月電子版価格 ページ数
WebFeet Research, Inc.
ウェブフィートリサーチ社
2018年4月US$5,995
サイトライセンス
358

サマリー

この調査レポートは、フラッシュメモリーと3D XPointメモリー(3Dクロスポイントメモリー)の市場と用途について、広範かつ詳細な調査を行い、市場動向や技術、各アプリケーションの市場情報、フラッシュメモリのタイプ別出荷数データなどを掲載しています。

主な掲載内容 (目次より抜粋)

  1. 主な調査結果
  2. 調査手法
  3. フラッシュメモリ市場予測
  4. モバイルストレージ市場展望
  5. モバイルコンピューティングのシステムアーキテクチャ展望
  6. メモリー/ストレージ統合のシステムアーキテクチャ展望
  7. エンドユーズ市場
    1. シリアルNOR型フラッシュメモリのエンドユース市場
    2. モビリティのエンドユース市場
      1. 携帯電話
      2. Bluetooth I/O
      3. ウェアラブルカメラ、AR/VRメガネ
      4. 時計
      5. ウェアラブルフィットネス
    3. コンシューマ製品
    4. パーソナルIoT
      1. デジタルカメラ
      2. デジタルビデオカメラ
      3. デジタルボイスレコーダ
      4. MP3ミュージックプレイヤ
      5. パーソナルメディアプレイヤ
      6. フォトアルバム
      7. 電子書籍、ディレクトリー
      8. ゲーム - ハンドヘルド、ポータブル、オーガナイザー、ディレクトリー
      9. 玩具
      10. プロジェクタ
    5. コネクテッドホームIoT
      1. デジタルホーム(モノのインターネット)
      2. テレビ
      3. セットトップボックス
      4. DVD-ROMとプレイヤ/レコーダ
      5. Blu Ray DVD-ROMとプレイヤ/レコーダ
      6. UHD DVD-ROMプレイヤとレコーダ
      7. テレビゲーム機
      8. FAX機、ワープロ、OA機器
      9. 電話応答機
      10. コードレス/DECT/VoIP電話
    6. コンピューティング
    7. クライアントコンピューティング
      1. PC、ワークステーション、サーバ、ノートブック
      2. ノートブックコンピューティング - フラッシュキャッシュとSSD
      3. タブレット/iPad
      4. ネットブック
      5. ネットトップ
      6. プリンタ
      7. ウェブカム
      8. LCD/LEDモニタ
      9. モデム
      10. オーディオカードとグラフィックカード
    8. クラウド/エンタープライズコンピューティング
      1. サーバ
      2. サーバ - スライドストレージ
      3. ソリッドステートドライブ(SSD)
      4. ハードディスクドライブ(HDD)
      5. ネットワークシステム - NIC、ハブ、ルータ、スイッチ、ATM
      6. ネットワークメモリモジュール
      7. ラインカード
    9. 交通
      1. 自動車
      2. デジタルラジオ
      3. GPS
      4. 無人航空機/ドローン
    10. 産業 (モノのインターネット)
      1. メータ、センサ、内蔵、コントローラ、サイネージ、Kiosk、POS
      2. アーケードゲーム
      3. 3Dプリンタ
    11. 政府
      1. データレコーダ、機内エンターテインメント/通信、誘導、指揮統制、戦闘向けコンピュータシステム、セキュリティ/IDタグ
  8. フラッシュ出荷数
    1. フラッシュ/XPointメモリの密度別出荷収益数
    2. フラッシュメモリの出荷台数
    3. フラッシュメモリの平均販売価格(ASP)
    4. ギガビット/メガビット別フラッシュメモリ出荷数
    5. 密度別メガビットフラッシュメモリー出荷数
    6. 1メガビット/ギガビット当たりの密度別フラッシュメモリ価格
  9. フラッシュメモリのベンダ別市場シェア

TOP

Key Findings

Web-Feet Research, Inc. provides a highly detailed market segmentation in its fourteenth annual report on Flash and XPoint Memory Applications and Markets, (CS100XFA-2016). This extensive update provides an integrated memory/storage end-use market segmentation in the consumer, mobile and computing markets and forecasts the NAND and NOR usage in over 175 end-use applications. Some of the new applications forecast the Internet of Things (IoT), when server-side XPoint DIMMs will replace NVDIMMs, the rise of wearable computing, Connected Home IoT and autonomous cars.

As the Flash/NVM technology evolved intelligently so did its markets. Beginning with basic media file storage in consumer applications NAND grew in usage. Mobile storage in Smart phones needs more sophisticated Flash in performing execute-in-place and more reliable storage. Computing requires the utmost performance from the block addressable NAND and XPoint as byte persistent SCM merges working data with hot storage to enable high capacity in-memory computing. Finally, the lost step-child NOR should see a mild rebound with high speed twin-Quad XTRM or HyperFlash Serial NOR initiating the connection for the Internet of Things in over 30 billion Intelligent Connected devices in 2020.

In the Flash and XPoint Memory Applications and Markets forecast, WebFeet Research provides a density breakout by revenue, units, and Mbits/Gbits for NAND (SLC, MLC, TLC, eMLC, SPI, Combo (MCP) NAND); 3D NAND (MLC, TLC); NOR, MLC NOR, serial NOR, Combo NOR and serial Combo NOR; and XPoint Memory. The forecast period includes 2013-2015 historical and 2016-2020 projections. A special section breaks out the serial NOR by over 30 applications including the major use of quad/plus IO serial NOR components. In addition, the compute market examines the use of Flash cache, Server-side SSDs and storage SSDs for the client and cloud/datacenter/enterprise end-use markets. The GB consumption is also forecast by memory/storage end-use market and shows when computing becomes the Flash consumption market share leader. Finally, the 2015 Flash Market Shares by Vendor is included showing how the players have changed position based on acquisitions and pricing to reach $33.4 billion in total Flash and $31.3 billion in NAND.

On the technology front for NOR Flash, the 512Mbit, 1Gbit and some 2Gbit serial NOR are shipping; in addition these can run at high speed (up to 400MB/s). For planar NAND, the 3-bit TLC NAND has been mastered by all vendors and many have included 3-bit usage into SSD production. All planar NAND has slowed technology node shrinks pausing at a 1ynm node between 16-15nm, with a 2-bit and 3-bit 128Gbit planar part that was first produced in 2014. Overall, there have some issues with the NAND process migrating below 1z node on a planar basis, but these may be resolved with some vendor roadmaps migrating to 14-12nm and densities at 256Gbit or higher.

On the vertical front, 3D NAND designs are the next extension of NAND capacity. There are two design philosophies for 3D NAND, either use a Trap Charge to store the charged electron or use a Floating gate that is in all planar NAND. Samsung, the first vendor to ship 3D NAND, is in their fifth generation of V-NAND production using Trap Charge. Their 3D NAND roadmap like all other vendors is predominantly 3-bit or TLC V-NAND being made in higher capacities by progressively stacking layers ranging from 32, 48, 64, 96 and 128 layers. Currently, Samsung is producing TLC 256Gbit density at 48 layers that is shipping in their full line of SSDs. SanDisk/Toshiba believe their BiCS (Trap Charge) is more efficient and in 2016 are shipping 256Gbit also at 48 layers in commercial volumes. Micron and Intel in November 2014 announced their 3D NAND development based on Floating gate NAND technology that they believe will be 20% cheaper with the logic built under the array thus easier to stack. Summer 2016 they will ship a TLC 3D NAND at 384Gbit / 48 layer component and may license their 3D NAND line to SK Hynix. Every NAND vendor has a 3D NAND density roadmap moving to 512Gbit, 768Gbit, and 1Tbit+ in the next few years. After ten years of stealth R&D, Intel/Micron announced the 128Gbit 3D XPoint Memory with production slated for 2018-2020. XPoint is byte addressable, persistent and compatible with DDR4 DRAM on the same bus.
In the End-Use market chapter, Web-Feet Research forecasts over fifty end-use markets using over 175 individual applications that supply the individual inputs for revenue, units, and Megabits/Gigabits that are consolidated to build the ‘bottoms-up’ demand forecast. The Internet of Things has become ubiquitous, so to provide more definition within each use market a sub-segment of IoT helps to organize usage. In the mobile market, smart phones are still one of the largest Flash applications even with some softening of demand. Within the mobility sub-segment of Wearables the AppleWatch / Smartwatch, fitness-type wearables and Augmented/Virtual Reality Google-type glasses are expected to increase demand in the second half of the forecast. Consumer applications are segmented into Personal IoT and Connected Home where Digital cameras, MP3 and Media Players, along with camcorders, photo albums, television and Set top Boxes and all other games and consumer devices are maintaining a healthy share of Flash consumption. Client computing focuses on SSDs in notebooks, tablets and 2 n 1 notebooks, along with desktops and nettops. Data Center and Cloud computing covers Enterprise storage SSDs in nine application market niches and server-side Flash and XPoint memory/storage.

Analysis and Reporting Methodology

The Flash and XPoint Memory Applications and Markets Forecast report from Web-Feet Research includes a variety of methodologies for different sections of this report. On the application side, Web-Feet Research surveyed many application companies, Flash manufacturers, and other vendors to obtain the application forecasts. Utilizing this information, Web-Feet Research developed a ‘bottoms-up’ Flash demand forecast by projecting over fifty end-use application unit forecasts and the associated internal Flash components, Flash card, Embedded Flash Drives, Flash-Solid State Drive / DIMM and XPoint-SSDs / DIMMs memory content for each of these end-use applications. Concurrently, Web-Feet Research uses a macro-model based on the Flash Memory Reporting Association (FMRA) that summaries and forecasts, and then projects a ‘tops-down’ demand forecast to cross check the ‘bottoms-up’ results. These two forecasts are then reconciled to one overall Flash demand forecast.

For the XPoint demand model this forecast uses the ‘Macro’ guidance from Intel/Micron to project the initial productization of XPoint on a component basis for density, performance and an estimated cost (two scenarios: Intel’s and WebFeet’s). XPoint is positioned as a Storage Class Memory (SCM) close to DRAM as type of non volatile RAM or persistent memory. It is currently too expensive to be a NAND replacement except for extreme performance applications. In this regard, the initial products for the first generation of XPoint are high performance NVMe SSDs for gamers, long term for mobile and configuring XPoint in a DIMM card for select Cloud, Data Centers and HPC computing. XPoint DIMM card modules plug into the Xeon server memory bus slot and interface to DDR4 DRAM DIMM, thereby providing 128GB to 512GB per DIMM memory capacity to each server node slot.
Within the ‘bottoms-up’ demand forecast, each application has the Flash and XPoint revenue, units, and Megabits (Mbits)/Gigabits (Gbits) calculated and then consolidated into the overall totals for each year of the forecast. The revenue, units and Mbits/Gbits for NOR, NAND Flash and XPoint memory are calculated separately for density and then summarized for each application.

Web-Feet Research was able to use the FMRA summary of revenue, units, Mbits, and ASPs segmented by NOR and NAND Flash types. This data was submitted by the top 15 Flash manufacturers in 2013, 2014 and 2015 to establish the baseline of the Flash memory market size. These FMRA baselines provide density breakouts from 512Kbit-512Gbit for each Flash memory type including NOR, MLC NOR, Serial NOR, NAND, MLC NAND, TLC NAND, eML NAND, SPI NAND, 3D NAND, XPoint and Combo (Flash + xRAM) NOR and Combo NAND devices. In conclusion, Web-Feet Research compares the forecasts between the FMRA baseline and the WSTS-based projections.



目次

Table of Contents

Table of Contents iii
List of Figures vi
List of Tables viii

1 Key Findings 1
2 Methodology 7

3 Flash NVM Memory Market Forecast 9

3.1 Overall Flash/XPoint Memory Market Forecast
3.2 NOR, NAND and XPoint Shipments
3.3 End-Use Market Shipments
3.4 Flash Revenue Forecast by Geographic Region
3.5 Flash Revenue by Voltage

4 A Market Perspective on Mobile Storage 19

4.1 The Electronic Device Market
4.1.1 Function-based Market Segmentation
4.1.2 Device-based Market Segmentation
4.1.3 Use Model-based Market Segmentation ....
4.1.4 Memory/Storage Function-based Market Segmentation
4.1.5 Market Segmentation Summary
4.2 Market Segmentation Summary for Memory / Storage
4.3 IoT to Data Center – Memory/Storage Market Segmentation

5 A System Architecture Perspective on Mobile Computing 31

5.1 Market-Driven System Architecture Development ..
5.2 System Architecture Impact on Mobile Storage

6 A System Architecture View to Memory/Storage Convergence 33

6.1 Memory/Storage Convergence Enables Hybrid Cognitive Computing
6.1.1 System Architecture Assumptions
6.2 Positioning SCM within Storage Systems
6.3 Working Memory and Hot Storage Merge

7 End-Use Markets 38

7.1 Serial NOR End-Use Markets
7.2 Mobility End-Use Market
7.2.1 Cell Phones
7.2.2 Bluetooth I/O
7.2.3 Wearable Cameras, AR/VR Glasses
7.2.4 Watch
7.2.5 Wearables Fitness
7.3 CONSUMER 97
7.4 Personal IoT
7.4.1 Digital Cameras
7.4.2 Digital Camcorder
7.4.3 Digital Voice Recorders
7.4.4 MP3 Music Players
7.4.5 Personal Media Player
7.4.6 Photo Albums
7.4.7 Electronic Books, Directories
7.4.8 Games – Handheld, Portable, Organizers, and Dictionaries
7.4.9 Toys
7.4.10 Projectors
7.5 Connected Home IoT
7.5.1 Digital Home (Internet of Things)
7.5.2 Television
7.5.3 Set Top Box
7.5.4 DVD ROM and Players / Recorders
7.5.5 Blu Ray DVD ROM and Players / Recorders
7.5.6 UHD DVD Players and Recorders
7.5.7 Games - Consoles
7.5.8 Fax, Word Processors, Office Machines
7.5.9 Cordless/DECT/VoIP Phones
7.6 COMPUTING 163
7.7 CLIENT COMPUTING 164
7.7.1 Personal Computer, Workstation, Server, and Notebooks
7.7.2 Notebook Computing – Flash Cache and SSD
7.7.3 Tablets/iPad
7.7.4 Netbooks
7.7.5 Nettops
7.7.6 Printers
7.7.7 Webcams
7.7.8 LCD/LED Monitors
7.7.9 Modems
7.7.10 Audio and Graphic Cards
7.8 Cloud / Enterprise Computing
7.8.1 Servers
7.8.2 Servers – Side
7.8.5 Network Systems – NIC, Hub, Router, Switches, ATM
7.8.6 Network Memory Modules
7.9 TRANSPORTATION 213
7.9.1 Automotive
7.9.2 Digital Radio
7.9.3 Global Positioning Systems (GPS)
7.9.4 UAV / Drones
7.10 INDUSTRIAL (Internet of Things) 235
7.10.1 Meters, Sensors, Embedded, Controllers, Signage, Kiosks, Point-Of-Sale
7.10.2 Smart Cities: Smart Buildings, Infrastructure, Utilities, Network Computing
7.10.3 Games – Arcade
7.10.4 3D Printers
7.11 GOVERNMENT 256
7.11.1 Data Recorder, Inflight Entertainment/Communications, Guidance, Command & Control, Combat Computer Systems, Security / Identity Tags

8 Flash Shipments 262

8.1 Flash/XPoint Revenue Shipments by Density
8.1.1 NOR Revenue Shipments
8.1.2 Serial Flash Revenue Shipments
8.1.3 XPoint/NVRAM Memory Flash Revenue Shipments
8.1.4 NAND Revenue Shipments
8.1.5 Combo Revenue Shipments
8.2 Flash Unit Shipments
8.2.1 NOR Flash Unit Shipments
8.2.2 ML NOR Flash Unit Shipments
8.2.3 Serial Flash Unit Shipments
8.2.4 SCM Memory – XPoint/NVRAM Unit Shipments
8.2.5 NAND Flash Unit Shipments
8.2.6 ML NAND Flash Unit Shipments
8.2.7 TL, 3D and eML NAND Flash Unit Shipments
8.2.8 SPI NAND Flash Unit Shipments
8.2.9 Combo Flash Unit Shipments
8.3 Flash Average Selling Price
8.3.1 NOR Flash ASP
8.3.2 ML NOR Flash ASP
8.3.3 Serial Flash ASP
8.3.4 XPoint/NVRAM ASP
8.3.5 NAND Flash ASP
8.3.6 ML NAND ASPs
8.3.7 TL, 3D and eML NAND ASPs
8.3.8 SPI NAND ASPs
8.3.9 Combo Flash ASPs
8.4 Flash Shipments by Gigabits/Megabits
8.5 Flash Megabit Shipments by Density
8.6 Flash Price per Megabit/GB by Density

9 Flash Memory Market Shares by Vendor 349

 

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プレスリリース

[プレスリリース]

IoT and Edge Computing - Impacts on Flash and Memory Applications

How Flash and Persistent Memory Improve the Intelligent Processing of the Internet of Things (IoT), Edge and Data Center Computing. NVRAM / XPoint impacts on Flash and DRAM Consumption in 2019 and beyond.

MONTEREY, Calif., April 4, 2018 – The exponential growth of information is being driven by the expansion of the Internet-of-Things and edge computing. WebFeet Research recognizes that the magnitude of processing and storing the ever expanding information stream will, at some point, end in a catastrophic information blowout without rethinking the framework for information exchange that includes a high degree of applied intelligence to information produced locally. The idea is to use artificial intelligence to greatly reduce the instantaneous need to move information and also to reduce the need for combinatorial remote storage action; both of these ideas are now on the table and will have long term effect on the future of computing (especially if this intelligence becomes part of the semiconductor memory device).

Reductions in latency, afforded by current developments in Flash and persistent memory, has eased the task of engineering a moderate amount of intelligence into the IoT and edge computing paradigm – much more is needed.  Flash along with persistent memory are assisting this paradigm shift through connecting, preprocessing and compressing data at the edge to alleviate the overload at the Cloud/Data Center.

With these powerful market shifts underway, WebFeet Research is announcing the fifteenth annual report Flash and XPoint Memory Applications and Markets, (CS100XFA-2018). This study illuminates the intelligent processing evolution theme weaving through NOR, NAND and XPoint memory, their 195 applications, and the markets for the new NVRAM memory.

Beginning with basic media file storage in consumer applications NOR and NAND grew in usage. Mobile storage in smart phones needs more sophisticated Flash in performing execute-in-place with more reliable storage. Computing applications require the utmost performance from the block-addressable NAND to using XPoint/NVRAM as byte persistent SCM merges working data with hot storage to enable high-capacity in-memory computing. As an afterthought, serial NOR should see a strong rebound to over $4B in establishing the connection for the Internet of Things in over 50 billion intelligent connected devices by 2022.

As the Flash/NVM technology evolves adding intelligence is just the beginning. The announcement of XPoint raised the hope of utilizing a persistent DRAM memory. There has been a bit of confusion about when XPoint will be available and for which applications. With the delay of releasing the XPoint DIMM, there is an opening for a new technology like NVRAM to usurp XPoint. NVRAM, depicted in Micron’s technology roadmap (New Memory - High Performance Memories under Development – 2/17), has the characteristics of a persistent DRAM-type. WebFeet boldly predicts NVRAM will be announced this year and forecasts its application usage in this study.

“WebFeet’s Flash applications report has consistently provided the revenue and units-by-density data of the serial NOR and the SLC NAND markets for over 50 end-use applications that have been referenced and become essential in our business planning,” said K.C. Shekar, senior director of strategic marketing, Winbond America

This major update provides an integrated memory/storage end-use market segmentation in the consumer, mobile and computing markets and forecasts the serial NOR, NAND, 3D NAND and XPoint/NVRAM usage in over 195 end-use applications.  Some of the new applications forecast are: sensors and gateways for smart cities, server-side NVRAM DIMMs, the rise of Edge computing to offload the Data Center, and Level 3 autonomous vehicles.

The report forecast period includes 2016-2017 historical data and 2018-2022 projections.  A special section breaks out the serial NOR and NAND usage for digital homes, smart buildings, and smart cities.  Also in the report, the compute market examines the use of Flash cache, server-side SSDs and storage SSDs for the client and cloud/datacenter/enterprise end-use markets. Finally, the 2017 Flash Market Shares by Vendor is included, showing how the players have changed position based on acquisitions and pricing to reach over $50 billion in total Flash.  

The Flash and XPoint Memory Applications and Markets: 2016-2022 report, CS100XFA-2018, (358 pages) is available for purchase from WebFeet Research in electronic and hard copy at $5,995. For the seasoned professional or the casual market observer, this report is essential.

About WebFeet Research

Headquartered in Monterey, California, WebFeet Research provides business consulting and market research services in the memory and storage markets, with a focus on nonvolatile memory, solid state storage technologies and cognitive computing.

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