新しい通信経由のTV放送(Telco TV)サービスは、最初の数年間で、最大25%の有料テレビ(PayTV)加入者を奪うかもしれない。米国の調査会社The Diffusion Groupの調査レポート「Telco TV市場調査:有料TV加入者のTelco TVサービス利用意向調査 - Receptivity to TelcoTV among PayTV Subscribers - Primary Research and Analysis」は、ケーブルやDBSなどの有料テレビ加入者の多くは、ほんの少しの料金の違いでも通信経由のTV放送に乗り換えて、市場のバランスを大きく乱すかもしれない。

The Diffusion Groupの調査レポート「Telco TV市場調査「:有料TV加入者のTelco TVサービス利用意向調査 - Receptivity to TelcoTV among PayTV Subscribers - Primary Research and Analysis」は、ローカル電話会社の提供するテレビサービスとバンドルサービスに関心のある1500以上の米国の家庭を対象に行った2006年4月の調査に基づくものである。主に、月額でどのくらい料金が違えば通信経由のTV放送に関心を持つかという点を中心に調査している。

Following up on TDG's groundbreaking IPTV analysis and forecasts, TDG is now gauging at the reaction of consumers to this new medium. Consumer Perceptions of TelcoTV is a North American companion to IPTV 2006 Update: The Evolution of IP Media. The two reports uniquely blend inside-industry expertise with in-depth consumer research and offers a complete analysis of TDG’s latest study regarding pay-television service and IPTV.

Although IPTV is a new technology enabled by a broadband Internet connection, consumers will (or should) ultimately view the services as just another TV service. However, this simplification does not necessitate consumers’ preferences for other, more traditional mediums for receiving their premium TV service ? namely cable or satellite. This study seeks to understand consumer feelings toward service providers, quantify the primary target for IPTV services, and explode the opportunities for telcos looking to offer their own pay-TV service.

Receptivity to TelcoTV among PayTV Subscribers - Primary Research and Analysis analyzes a number of pricing scenarios to determine the optimal pricing for a telco-provided IPTV service depending on various possible offerings from competitors. Such an analysis is also conducted regarding a telco-provided Triple Play bundle including telephone, broadband Internet, and IPTV.

Specifically, this report offers insights into:

• Consumer satisfaction with existing services;
• Perception of quality and reliability of various entities to provide TV service;
• Comfort with receiving TV service from their local telecom operator; 
• Proclivity to switch TV providers given certain enticements; 
• Perception of quality and reliability of various entities to provide bundled services; and
• Proclivity to sign up for telco bundled services given certain enticements.

Table of Contents

Key Findings

1.0 Introduction

2.0 Methodology

3.0 So What is TelcoTV?

4.0 Summary of Market Opportunities for TelcoTV

5.0 Consumer Opportunity

5.1 Current Pay TV Environment
5.2 Overview of Consumer Opinion
5.2.1 Satisfaction with Current Service
5.2.2 Proclivities to Switch Service Providers
5.2.3 Familiarity with IPTV
5.3 Telco TV
5.3.1 TV Services Offered by Telco
5.3.2 TV Service Subscriptions Through Telco
5.4 Interest in Telco IPTV
5.4.1 Preferred Pay TV Provider
5.4.2 Proclivity to Switch to TelcoTV
5.4.3 Price Sensitivity
5.5 Telco Triple Play Bundle
5.5.1 Preferred Triple Play Provider
5.5.2 Proclivity to Switch
5.5.3 Price Sensitivity
6.0 Reflections and Recommendations

7.0 Appendix

List of Figures

Figure 1 State of U.S. Pay TV Subscriptions
Figure 2 Pay TV Service Provider Used
Figure 3 Satisfaction with Current Pay TV Service
Figure 4 Proclivity to Switch Pay TV Service Providers within 12 Months
Figure 5 Familiarity with IPTV
Figure 6 Pay TV Services Offered by Telephone Company
Figure 7 Pay TV Subscriptions Through Telephone Company
Figure 8 Preferred Provider of Pay TV Service
Figure 9 Proclivity to Switch to TelcoTV (Averaged Over Price Savings Points)
Figure 10 Proclivity to Switch to TelcoTV Across Various Price Savings Points
Figure 11 Revenue Generated by Different Price Savings Points Compared to Various Competitor Prices
Figure 12 Preferred Provider of Triple Play Bundle
Figure 13 Proclivity to Switch to Telco Triple Play (Averaged Over Price Savings Points)
Figure 14 Proclivity to Switch to Telco Triple Play Across Various Price Savings Points
Figure 15 Revenue Generated by Different Price Savings Points Compared to Various Competitor Prices
Figure 16 Proclivity to Switch to TelcoTV If It Saved $5 Per Month
Figure 17 Proclivity to Switch to TelcoTV If It Saved $15 Per Month
Figure 18 Proclivity to Switch to TelcoTV If It Saved $20 Per Month
Figure 19 Proclivity to Switch to TelcoTV If It Saved $25 Per Month
Figure 20 Proclivity to Switch to Telco Triple Play If It Saved $15 Per Month
Figure 21 Proclivity to Switch to Telco Triple Play If It Saved $25 Per Month
Figure 22 Proclivity to Switch to Telco Triple Play If It Saved $35 Per Month
Figure 23 Proclivity to Switch to Telco Triple Play If It Saved $45 Per Month

通信経由のTV放送は、適切な値付けで大きなシェアの可能性

The Diffusion Groupの調査報告書は、通信経由のTV放送はほんわずかな価格の安さで、当初2年間で25%のシェアを獲得できると報告

テキサス州ダラス、2006年6月6日
新しい通信経由のTV放送(TelcoTV)サービスは、最初の数年間で、最大25%の有料テレビ(PayTV)加入者を奪うかもしれない。米国の調査会社The Diffusion Groupの調査レポート「Telco TV市場調査:有料TV加入者のTelco TVサービス利用意向調査」は、ケーブルやDBSなどの有料テレビ加入者の多くは、ほんの少しの料金の違いでも通信経由のTV放送に乗り換えて、市場のバランスを大きく乱すかもしれない。

「現在、米国の家庭の約84%は、ケーブルや衛星などの何らかの形式の有料テレビ放送サービスに加入している。しかし、これらの加入者の15％は、現在加入している有料テレビサービスに不満をもっており、22％がいくらかのコスト削減になるならば、通信経由のTV放送サービスに切り換えたいとしている」と、The Diffusion GroupのDale Gilliam氏は語る。

「米国の有料テレビ市場は安定的に普及し続け、1加入者あたりの収益が継続的に増えていくという成熟したレベルにまで成長した。ケーブルやDBSのオペレータにとって、現在の平均価格は持続可能なものであり、基本サービス料金は値上げの方向というのが暗黙の了解であるようだ。これは新規参入者である通信経由のTV放送が競争に参入する絶好の機会である」と調査レポートの共著者であるThe Diffusion GroupのCEO Michael Greeson氏は語る。

米国通信会社がケーブルの「トリプルプレー」の脅威について語るとき、要となるサービスがビデオ配信である。これは最も重要なサービスであり、バンドルサービスの解約阻止につながる、ということを米国の通信会社は十分に承知している。通信経由のTV放送が一般的に受け入れられる度合いは現在のところ不確かであるといわざるを得ないと調査レポートは解説している。

The Diffusion Groupの調査レポート「Telco TV市場調査:有料TV加入者のTelco TVサービス利用意向調査」は、ローカル電話会社の提供するテレビサービスとバンドルサービスに関心のある1500以上の米国の家庭を対象に行った2006年4月の調査に基づくものである。主に、月額でどのくらい料金が違えば通信経由のTV放送に関心を持つかという点を中心に調査している。

(原文)
TelcoTV Could Capture Significant Market Share Given Appropriate Positioning

New Research from The Diffusion Group Suggests that Given Even Minor Cost Savings, TelcoTV Services Could Capture 25% Market Share in the First Two Years

June 6, 2006 (Dallas, TX) - New TelcoTV services could take as much as 25% of PayTV subscribers in markets in which such services are introduced, just in the first few years. According to Receptivity to TelcoTV among PayTV Subscribers - Primary Research and Analysis, a new report from The Diffusion Group, there are a sufficient number of ambivalent or dissatisfied cable and DBS subscribers that a competitive offering with even slight cost advantages could be disruptive to the market balance.

"Some 84% of US households now subscribe to some form of PayTV service, be it cable or satellite," said Dale Gilliam of The Diffusion Group. "However, 15% of these subscribers are dissatisfied with the quality of their current PayTV service, and 22% are likely to switch from their current service to a TelcoTV service given some level of cost discount."

"The US PayTV market has evolved to a level of maturity where penetration is stable and growth is contingent upon increasing per-subscriber revenue," said Michael Greeson, CEO of The Diffusion Group and co-author of the report. "There seems to be tacit consent among cable and DBS operators that current average prices are sustainable, as are price increases for basic services. This is a perfect environment for a new player, in this case TelcoTV, to enter the fray."

As US telcos construct responses to cable's 'triple-play' threat, they have realized that the lynch-pin service is video - it is by far the most sticky and churn-resistant service of the bundle, a reality of which US telcos are more than aware. The extent to which consumers are willing to embrace TelcoTV has to date remained uncertain - thus the rationale for TDG's report, Receptivity to TelcoTV among PayTV Subscribers - Primary Research & Analysis.

TDG's latest report features the results of an April 2006 study of more than 1,500 US households regarding awareness of and interest in TV and bundled services offered from their 'local telephone provider.' Central to the report is an analysis of how interest fluctuates relative to different levels of monthly cost savings, a variable which weighs heavily upon interest in TelcoTV offerings.