China Telecom Industry Forecast to 2012 / RNCOS社

中国の通信市場調査 2009年:市場概況、技術、将来予測

China Telecom Industry Forecast to 2012

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China’s telecommunication sector has been continuously witnessing considerable developments over the recent years. The country now owns the world’s largest telecommunication networks in terms of both network capacity and number of subscribers. The telecom industry has experienced double-digit growth over the past decade. And the recent move by the government, aimed at restructuring the domestic telecom industry following the issuance of 3G licenses in early 2009, has brought about a wave of rapid development and deployment of telecom infrastructure throughout the country.

According to our report on the sector called “China Telecom Industry Forecast to 2012”, operators continue to invest billions of dollars into the development of world-class telecom infrastructure in the country, despite gloomy economic environment. The issuance of 3G licenses in January 2009 has initiated a wave of investments that has long been waited for.

We have found that the country continue to see fast addition of subscribers in its mobile, Internet and broadband sector. Meanwhile, declining trend has been seen in its fixed line telephony market and we expect same trend to continue in near future as well. However, subscribers in mobile, Internet and broadband sector are forecasted to grow at CAGR of more than 8%, around 17% and 26% respectively during 2009-2012 and their respective penetration rate will approach nearly 67%, 42% and 16% by the end of 2012. Various factors which will drive this future growth have been thoroughly discussed in the report.

“China Telecom Industry Forecast to 2012” provides extensive research and analysis on the rapidly growing Chinese telecom market. It provides detailed analysis on the country’s fixed-line telephony, mobile telephony, Internet and broadband market, coupled with their current performance and future prospects. The report provides clients an insight into the emerging technologies, subscriber growth, handset sales, market share, market penetration, opportunities and roadblocks, and future scenario of the Chinese telecom market.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Analyst View

2. Research Methodology

3. China Telecom Sector - An Overview

4. Market Attractions

4.1 Economic Landscape
4.2 Favorable Demographics
4.3 Government Support
4.4 Bridging the Digital Divide
4.5 3G Technology

5. Market Performance and Outlook to 2012

5.1 Fixed-line Telephony

5.1.1 By Subscribers
5.1.2 By Urban/Rural Areas
5.1.3 By Provinces

5.2 Mobile Telephony

5.2.1 By Subscribers
5.2.2 By Technologies
5.2.3 By Service Providers
5.2.4 By Provinces

5.3 Internet

5.3.1 By Users
5.3.2 By Urban/Rural Areas
5.3.3 By Provinces

5.4 Broadband

5.4.1 By Subscribers
5.4.2 By Technologies
5.4.3 By Service Providers

6. New Technological Deployments and Outlook

6.1 3G
6.2 IPTV
6.3 Mobile TV
6.4 WiMAX

7. Potential Growth Areas

7.1 IT-enabled Solutions
7.2 Computer Vendors
7.3 Handset Vendors
7.4 Value-added Service Providers
7.5 Network Security
7.6 Online Gaming
7.7 Online Advertising

8. Roadblocks and RNCOS Recommendations

9. Competitive Landscape

9.1 China Mobile Limited
9.2 China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited
9.3 China Telecom Corporation Limited

List of Figures & Tables

List of Figures

Figure 3-1: Fixed Asset Investment in Telecom Industry (Billion Yuan), 2006-2008
Figure 3-2: Telecom Industry Revenue (Billion Yuan), 2007 & 2008
Figure 3-3: Breakup of Telecom Industry Revenue (%), 2008
Figure 4-1: GDP (Trillion Yuan), 2006-2008
Figure 4-2: Fixed Asset Investment (Trillion Yuan), 2006-2008
Figure 4-3: Fixed Asset Investment in Urban and Rural Areas (%), 2008
Figure 4-4: Population (Million), 2006-2008
Figure 4-5: Share of Population in Urban and Rural Areas (2008)
Figure 4-6: Per Capita Net Income of Rural Households (Yuan), 2006-2008
Figure 4-7: Per Capita Disposable Income of Urban Households (Yuan), 2006-2008
Figure 5-1: Number of Fixed-line Telephone Subscribers (Million), 2005-2008
Figure 5-2: Penetration of Fixed-line Telephone Subscribers (%), 2005-2008
Figure 5-3: Forecast for Number of Fixed-line Telephone Subscribers (Million), 2009-2012
Figure 5-4: Forecast for Penetration of Fixed-line Telephone Subscribers (%), 2009-2012
Figure 5-5: Share of Fixed-line Telephone Subscribers in Urban and Rural Areas (2008)
Figure 5-6: Fixed-line Telephone Subscribers by Province (%), 2008
Figure 5-7: Number of Mobile Subscribers (Million), 2005-2008
Figure 5-8: Penetration of Mobile Subscribers (%), 2005-2008
Figure 5-9: Total Mobile Phone Calls (Trillion Minutes), 2007 & 2008
Figure 5-10: Mobile SMS Traffic (Billion), 2007 & 2008
Figure 5-11: Forecast for Number of Mobile Subscribers (Million), 2009-2012
Figure 5-12: Forecast for Penetration of Mobile Subscribers (%), 2009-2012
Figure 5-13: Mobile Subscribers by Technology (%), April 2009
Figure 5-14: Mobile Subscribers by Service Provider (%), April 2009
Figure 5-15: Mobile Subscribers by Province (%), 2008
Figure 5-16: Number of Mobile Subscribers in Eastern Province by State (Million), 2008
Figure 5-17: Number of Mobile Subscribers in Central Province by State (Million), 2008
Figure 5-18: Number of Mobile Subscribers in Western Province by State (Million), 2008
Figure 5-19: Number of Internet Users (Million), 2005-2008
Figure 5-20: Penetration of Internet Users (%), 2005-2008
Figure 5-21: Forecast for Number of Internet Users (Million), 2009-2012
Figure 5-22: Forecast for Penetration of Internet Users (%), 2009-2012
Figure 5-23: Number of Internet Users in Urban and Rural Areas (Million), 2006-2008
Figure 5-24: Number of Broadband Subscribers (Million), 2005-2008
Figure 5-25: Penetration of Broadband Subscribers (%), 2005-2008
Figure 5-26: Forecast for Number of Broadband Subscribers (Million), 2009-2012
Figure 5-27: Forecast for Penetration of Broadband Subscribers (%), 2009-2012
Figure 5-28: Broadband Subscribers by Technology (%), 2008
Figure 5-29: Broadband Subscribers by Service Provider (%), April 2009
Figure 6-1: Forecast for Number of IPTV Subscribers (Million), 2009-2012
Figure 6-2: Number of Mobile TV Users (Million), 2006-2008
Figure 6-3: Mobile TV Users by Service Type (%), 2008
Figure 6-4: Forecast for Number of Mobile TV Users (Million), 2009-2012
Figure 6-5: Forecast for Mobile TV Users by Service Type (%), 2012
Figure 6-6: Forecast for Mobile TV Market (Billion Yuan), 2009-2012
Figure 6-7: Forecast for Number of WiMAX Users (Million), 2009-2012
Figure 6-8: Forecast for WiMAX Users by Service (%), 2012
Figure 7-1: IT Spending in Telecom Industry (Billion Yuan), 2006-2008
Figure 7-2: IT Application Solutions Market in Telecom Industry (Billion Yuan), 2007 & 2012
Figure 7-3: Forecast for IT Spending in Telecom Industry (Billion Yuan), 2009-2012
Figure 7-4: Forecast for Breakup of IT Investment in Telecom Industry (%), 2012
Figure 7-5: Computer Sales (Million Units), 2006-2008
Figure 7-6: Laptop Sales (Million Units), 2006-2008
Figure 7-7: Desktop Sales (Million Units), 2007 & 2008
Figure 7-8: Forecast for Laptop Sales (Million Units), 2009-2012
Figure 7-9: Forecast for Netbooks Shipment (Million Units), 2009 & 2012
Figure 7-10: Mobile Phone Sales (Million Units), 2006-2008
Figure 7-11: Mobile Phone Sales by Player (%), Oct 2008
Figure 7-12: Forecast for Mobile Phone Sales (Million Units), 2009-2012
Figure 7-13: Telecom Value-added Service Revenue (Billion Yuan), 2006-2008
Figure 7-14: Share of MVAS in Telecom Value-added Service Revenue (2008)
Figure 7-15: Forecast for Telecom Value-added Service Revenue (Billion Yuan), 2009-2012
Figure 7-16: Forecast for Share of MVAS in Telecom Value-added Service Revenue (2012)
Figure 7-17: Network Security Product Market (Billion Yuan), 2006-2008
Figure 7-18: Share of Leading Providers of Network Security Products/Services (Q4 2008)
Figure 7-19: Forecast for Network Security Product Market (Billion Yuan), 2009-2012
Figure 7-20: Number of Online Game Players (Million), 2007 & 2008
Figure 7-21: Online Game Market (Billion Yuan), 2007 & 2008
Figure 7-22: Share of Leading Companies in Online Game Market (Q1 2009)
Figure 7-23: Forecast for Number of Online Game Players (Million), 2009-2012
Figure 7-24: Forecast for Online Game Market (Billion Yuan), 2009-2012
Figure 7-25: Mobile Online Game Market (Million Yuan), 2007 & 2008
Figure 7-26: Number of Mobile Online Game Players (Million), 2007 & 2012
Figure 7-27: Online Advertising Market (Billion Yuan), 2007 & 2008
Figure 7-28: Online Advertising Market by Segment (%), 2008
Figure 7-29: Share of Leading Players in Online Advertising Market (Q2 2009)
Figure 7-30: Forecast for Online Advertisement Market (Billion Yuan), 2009 & 2012

List of Tables

Table 4-1: Number of Households by Income Bracket (‘000), 2006-2009
Table 5-1: Share of Urban and Rural Fixed-line Telephone Subscribers by Province (2006-2008)
Table 5-2: Number of Internet Users by State (‘000), 2007 & 2008

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中国のインターネットユーザ数はCAGR16%以上で成長

2009年9月5日
インドの調査会社RNCOS社の調査レポート「中国の通信市場調査 2009年:市場概況、技術、将来予測 - China Telecom Industry Forecast to 2012」は、中国のインターネットユーザー数はこの数年間、二桁成長していると報告している。中国のインターネットユーザー数は、2005-2008年の間、CAGR39％で成長し、普及率は約22.6％に達している。急速な中国インターネット市場の成長は、インターネットの利点の認識が高まったことと、お得なパッケージの低価格のインターネット接続デバイスが増えたことによる。

この調査レポートはまた、2008年の都市圏のインターネット普及率は35％程度だが、農村地帯では12％に留まったとしている。つまり、中国では都市圏でも農村地帯でもまだビジネスチャンスは大きいということである。さらに、パソコンの所有率やブロードバンド接続も増え続けており、予測期間中のインターネット利用はさらに拡大し続けるだろう。中国政府は、2019年末までに2万以上の農村にインターネットを拡大することを目指しているため、主に農村地帯での成長が期待できるだろう。また、3Gインターネットデータカードの拡大も中国のインターネットユーザー数の成長に寄与するだろう。

2010年の上海万国博覧会などの特別なイベントの開催によって、中国のインターネット市場は大きく拡大すると考えられ、2009-2012年の中国のインターネットユーザー数はCAGR12％で成長するだろう。そのため、2012年末には、中国のインターネット普及率は42％強に達すると予測される。この調査レポートは、この成長を促進すると考えられる様々な要因を詳細に論議している。

この調査レポートは、急速に成長する中国の通信市場について、最新の詳細な調査を行っている。中国市場の携帯電話、固定電話、インターネット、ブロードバンドの現在の市場と将来の方向性を示している。新技術、加入者数の増加、端末販売、市場シェア、市場普及率、ビジネスチャンスと阻害要因、中国通信市場の将来のシナリオを記載している。

(原文)
China Internet Users to Grow Over 16% CAGR
Sep 05, 2009

According to our latest research report "China Telecom Industry Forecast to 2012", China's Internet population has been growing at double-digit rates over the past few years. The number of Internet users grew at the CAGR of nearly 39% during 2005-2008, with the Internet penetration reaching nearly 22.6%. The rapid growth in the Chinese Internet market is attributed to the growing awareness of Internet benefits and the availability of low-cost Internet access devices coupled with lucrative packages.

Our research has also found that in 2008, Internet penetration rate stood at around 35% for urban populace while that for rural populace, was around 12%. This translates into a big opportunity in both urban and rural China. Moreover, continuous growth of personal computer (PC) ownership and broadband access will promote the further expansion of Internet use during the forecasted period. The growth is mainly expected from rural China as the government intends to cover more than 20,000 Chinese villages through Internet by end-2010. Besides this, availability of 3G Internet data cards will further add to the growth in China's Internet subscriber base.

All the significant developments in China's Internet market alongwith the occurrence of special events like 2010 World Expo are expected to boost the number of Internet users in China at a CAGR of more than 16% during 2009-2012. With this, the Internet penetration rate is forecasted to reach just over 42% by the end of the forecasted period. Various factors providing necessary impetus to this future growth have been thoroughly discussed in the report.

Our report, "China Telecom Industry Forecast to 2012", provides detailed research and latest analysis on the rapidly surging Chinese telecom market. It also provides extensive study on the mobile telephony, fixed-line telephony, Internet and broadband market in the country, alongwith the current market performance and future prospects. The report contains all the requisite information to provide clients an insight of the emerging technologies, subscriber growth, handset sales, market share, market penetration, opportunities and roadblocks, and future scenario of the Chinese telecom market.