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Table of Contents

Table of Exhibits

Description

ネットブックは、ブロードバンド接続やモバイルコンピューティングの市場を再構築する重要な要因である。ネットブックは、携帯用のミニPCで、一般消費者向けのモバイルインターネットデバイスの重要な選択肢のひとつとなっている。非常に小型で使いにくいキーボードが懸念されたが、ネットブックは、まずはブロードバンドモバイルオペレータにとって、その価値を十分に果たしている。ネットブックは、発売されてすぐに、特にモバイルの、PCとブロードバンドの両方の市場に普及した。ブロードバンドプランにバンドルされたために、ネットブックは、モバイルプロバイダの解約を防ぎ、最近アップグレードしたHSPAネットワークの利用を改良せしめた。さらに、ネットブックによって、多くの新しいユーザがモバイルブロードバンドネットワークに接続するようになった。

The netbook is a key catalyst of the changes reshaping the broadband access and mobile computing markets. After sales of 13m units in 2008, this portable mini-PC is emerging as the mobile Internet device of choice for mass-market customers. Despite concerns about their small size and cramped keyboards, netbooks are perfectly capable of creating value, first and foremost for mobile broadband operators. The immediate outcome of their arrival in the market is to boost both PC and broadband penetration, especially in the mobile sector. Bundled with broadband plans, netbooks also allow mobile providers to curb churn and improve the utilization of their recently upgraded HSPA networks. And through netbooks, a host of new users have gained access to mobile broadband networks.

At the same time, there are plenty of doubts about the future of these devices. OEMs are not happy about the downward pressure on laptop prices brought about by inexpensive netbooks, and they fear cannibalizing sales of high-end notebooks. But we see a better opportunity for OEMs and broadband operators in supporting netbook sales and eventually up-selling higher-end, personalized devices as replacements.

This view is supported by the main findings of the report:

• Netbooks are a strategic tool for MNOs and OEMs alike, until the global economy recovers and users are ready — and able to afford — to migrate to more sophisticated devices.
• While in the developed world netbooks are considered inexpensive, the $500 retail price threshold is still prohibitively high for many potential buyers in emerging markets.
• The netbook surge will provide a much-needed stimulus for mobile subscription computing, which in turn will address the affordability issue of the historical PC sales model.
• Netbooks will help accelerate mobile broadband adoption among low-income customers.
• We forecast that in 2014 more than half of all netbooks will be sold by fixed and mobile operators in bundles with broadband Internet service.
• It is difficult to see how netbooks will make operators money beyond flat-rate mobile broadband subscription charges.

Mobile Broadband for the Masses analyzes the business case behind bundling netbooks with broadband access for both operators and OEMs, discusses key performance indicators delivered by those operators that have embraced the use of netbooks, and assesses the value they have been able to extract from netbook sales. In Europe and the US, these operators include Orange, TMN, T-Mobile and Vodafone. We also look at early examples of netbook bundles targeting students and examine the potential for netbook bundle sales in the markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China.

Key Questions Answered

• What role will netbook devices play in the adoption of mobile broadband?
• What will be the incremental level of new mobile broadband users, thanks to the availability of bundles with ultralow-cost portable computing devices?
• How will netbooks create value for service providers in the long term?
• Will netbooks make operators money beyond a flat-rate mobile broadband subscription?
• How different is a netbook subscription model from a laptop subscription model? How does it compare with stand-alone mobile data plans?
• Compared with total mobile broadband sales and total netbook sales, how big can the operator channel for netbooks get?

Target audience

Operators
This report helps you analyze the impact of netbook bundles on your subscriber base, churn and ARPU, comparing it with the impact of higher-end notebook bundles. It allows you to identify successful strategies for positioning, pricing and promoting your netbook-based offerings, to quantify market demand for netbook, notebook and desktop bundled sales through 2014 and to target strategies for emerging and developed markets.

PC OEMs
This report will help you assess the key drivers of netbook sales, examine the business models currently available in markets and anticipate future developments in netbook hardware, software and prices. The report helps you formulate an effective strategy for netbooks and evaluate business opportunities for bundling netbooks with broadband services across the world.

Financial services, investment firms
This report provides a thorough understanding of where netbooks fit into the overall markets for PCs and broadband access. Use this analysis to understand who is best positioned for success, to identify opportunities resulting from the decline of netbook prices below US$350, and to assess upcoming opportunities in the overall netbook and broadband markets.

Companies mentioned in this report:

Acer Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) América Móvil Apple ARM Asustek Computer AT&T BenQ Bharti Airtel Bouygues BSNL Canonical Cantv China Mobile China Telecom China Unicom Citrix Systems Claro Brasil Compal Electronics Cosmote Dell DiGi Docomo ECS Elektrobit Elisa Elitegroup Computer Systems (ECS) Era PTC Ericsson Everex Freescale Semiconductor Fujitsu Siemens Computers Fujitsu Technology Solutions

Gigabyte Technology Google HCL Infosystems Hewlett-Packard (HP) HTC Corp Idea Cellular Intel Intelbras Itautec JP Sá Couto KPN Lenovo LG Electronics Maxis Communications Medion Microsoft Micro-Star International (MSI) Mobistar Mobistar Belgium MTNL MSI Computer Neuf Cegetel Nokia Nvidia Orange France Orange Slovakia Phone House Phones4U Polkomtel Portugal Telecom Positivo Qualcomm Quanta Computer

Raon Digital Reliance Communications Samsung SFR SingTel Sony StarHub Taiwan Mobile Tata Indicom Telefónica Telefónica O2 Telefónica O2 Czech Republic Telefónica Spain TeliaSonera Telmex TIM TIM Brazil TMN TMN T-Mobile T-Mobile Germany T-Mobile UK Toshiba Verizon Wireless Vivo Vodafone Vodafone Czech Republic Vodafone Germany Vodafone Netherlands Vodafone Romania Vodafone Spain Vodafone UK Yota

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Table of Contents

Table of exhibits
Companies mentioned
Acronyms and abbreviations
Executive summary
Introduction

Section 1: The rise of netbooks
1.1 First things first: Defining the netbook
1.2 Netbook drivers
Driver one: Light mobile processors and a market push by Asian PC OEMs
Driver two: An ailing world economy, low PC penetration and shifting demand
Driver three: Selling to lower-income market segments and returns on 3G investments
1.3 Netbooks today
Netbook sales and market shares
Netbook prices and form factors
1.4 Netbooks tomorrow
Hardware and software

Section 2: Creating value with netbooks
2.1 The three Ps of the netbook value proposition: Price, portability and low power
Netbook target segments
Netbook value proposition for consumers: Affordable, portable, mobile
CASE STUDY: Netbook bundles for students and schools in Portugal and France
Netbook value proposition for businesses: Inexpensive and functional hardware to improve productivity
2.2 Netbook Internet bundles: Selling 3G in an economic downturn
Netbook broadband bundles: The value of combining product and service
Netbook and notebook bundles: Financial and operating impact
Adoption
Impact on churn
ARPS: Lower for netbook bundles
CASE STUDY: Low-cost netbooks in emerging markets
2.3 Netbook Internet bundles: Long-term value and VAS
Creating value with netbooks: What comes next?
Netbooks and VAS potential
A netbook for every family: Implications for mobile network traffic

Section 3: The netbook opportunity
3.1 The global size of the netbook opportunity
Netbooks and adoption of broadband
3.2 Sales of netbooks through the operator channel
3.3 The future of netbooks
Related resources

Table of exhibits

Exhibit 1: Netbook vs. notebook attributes
Exhibit 2: Timeline for netbook model introductions by major PC OEMs
Exhibit 3: Broadband subscriptions globally by type, 2005-2014
Exhibit 4: Netbook and iPhone sales globally, Q4 2007 to Q1 2009
Exhibit 5: Acceptable price range and optimal price of mobile broadband in select markets, 2007-2008
Exhibit 6: Netbook shipments and ODM market shares
Exhibit 7: Form factors and embedded modems of netbooks
Exhibit 8: Major netbook OEM partnerships with MNOs
Exhibit 9: Global socioeconomic groups and addressable mass market for mobile broadband PCs
Exhibit 10: Mobile broadband PC buyers by occupation
Exhibit 11: Student PC bundles by TMN in Portugal and Orange in France
Exhibit 12: Maxis Malaysia — mobile and fixed broadband plans in urban and non-urban areas
Exhibit 13: Regional launch timeline of mobile broadband bundles
Exhibit 14: Key model assumptions for netbook and notebook bundles
Exhibit 15: The impact of selling bundles on the broadband subscriber base
Exhibit 16: Netbook models on offer from MNOs in major markets
Exhibit 17: The impact of netbook and notebook bundles on subscribers’ total monthly expenditure
Exhibit 18: Total broadband revenue in three broadband service scenarios: Netbook bundle, notebook bundle and stand-alone broadband
Exhibit 19: Comparing the operating margins of netbook and notebook bundling scenarios
Exhibit 20: GDP and Internet penetration in Brazil, Russia, India and China, 2008
Exhibit 21: Netbook and notebook sales in Brazil, Russia, India and China, 2008 and 2009
Exhibit 22: PC hardware features that notebook buyers intend to use often
Exhibit 23: Intended usage locations of mobile broadband PCs
Exhibit 24: Netbook, notebook and desktop bundled sales totals, 2008-2014
Exhibit 25: Bundle sales breakdown by type of PC, 2008-2014
Exhibit 26: Netbook bundle sales in emerging and developed markets, 2008 and 2014
Exhibit 27: New sales of netbook bundles as a percentage of total broadband net additions
Exhibit 28: Operator bundles as percentage of total PC sales, 2008-2014

(日本語訳)

ネットブックが牽引するモバイルブロードバンドサービス

マサチューセッツ州ケンブリッジ、2009年5月21日
モバイルオペレータ数社が、モバイルデータサービス用のローエンドのコンピュータによるバンドルサービスをを提供するという新しい傾向があり、今後3-5年間、ネットブックの販売が増加し、それに伴ってモバイルブロードバンドの需要も高まるだろうと米国調査会社ピラミッドリサーチ社の調査レポート「マス市場に拡大するモバイルブロードバンド:ブロードバンドサービス付きネットブックの事例」は報告する。

この調査レポートは、オペレータやOEMの、ネットブックのバンドリングによるブロードバンド接続というビジネス事例を分析し、オペレータがネットブックの利用を促進させている主要な機能や、ネットブックの販売から得ることのできる利益を査定している。この調査レポートは、初期市場にある学生向けのネットブックバンドルの事例に注目し、ブラジル、ロシア、インド、中国市場でのネットブックバンドル販売の潜在力を査定している。

ネットブックは、市場を牽引し始めている。2008年には世界中での販売数は1300万であったが、世界的な不況にもかかわらず、2009年の後半には1000万になるだろう。インターネットに接続できるネットブックなどのバンドルは、先進市場においても新興市場においても、オペレータにとって最も効果的なサービスであり、2010年にはオペレータ経由でのネットブックの販売は非常に大きなものになるだろう」とピラミッドリサーチ社のコンサルティングマネージャーでこの調査レポートの共著者のCristiano Laux氏は語る。

(後略)

(原文)

Netbooks Will Drive Future Uptake of Mobile Broadband Services, Pyramid Research Finds

CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts, May 21, 2009
Increased sales of netbooks over the next three to five years will result in higher demand for mobile broadband services, driven by the emerging trend of bundling the low-end computers with mobile data services from specific network operators, according to the latest report by Pyramid Research, the telecom research arm of the Light Reading Communications Network.

Mobile Broadband for the Masses: The Case for Bundled Netbooks analyzes the business case behind bundling netbooks with broadband access for both operators and OEMs, discusses key performance indicators delivered by those operators that have embraced the use of netbooks, and assesses the value they have been able to extract from netbook sales. This 54-page report looks at the early examples of netbook bundles targeting students and examines the potential for netbook bundle sales in the markets of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Download an excerpt of this report here. 
Netbooks are just beginning to gain market traction; about 13 million were sold worldwide in 2008, with 10 million of those sales coming in the second half of the year, global economic crisis notwithstanding, notes Cristiano Laux, Manager of Consulting at Pyramid Research and coauthor of the report. “Bundles of these machines with Internet access are set to become a bread-and-butter offering for operators in developed and emerging markets alike, exceeding sales of notebook computers in the operator channel by 2010,” says Laux.

While many operators are already supporting the business case for netbook bundles, OEMs are not happy about the downward pressure on laptop prices and the cannibalization that netbooks may have on the sales of high-end notebooks. “For now, they have agreed to live with the threat, fearing that without netbooks, the recession would hit computer sales even more than it has done already,” Laux says.

Pyramid recommends that OEMs and broadband operators do what they can to support netbook sales. “There is growing evidence that netbooks are catching on with the under-21 crowd; if that trend develops, the adoption rate for netbooks could accelerate even more, which means these cheap and approachable devices could have a huge impact on how network operators make money off their services,” explains Laux. Netbooks will also help accelerate mobile broadband adoption among low-income customers and in emerging markets. “In the lower-income countries of Asia/Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, Eastern Europe, and Latin America, most of the incremental impact from netbook sales will be seen only when the price of mobile PCs declines below $350, but this is expected to happen in late 2009, with mass-market shipments picking up during 2010,” he says.

Mobile Broadband for the Masses: The Case for Bundled Netbooks is part of Pyramid's research report series. A blend of primary research and qualitative analysis, Pyramid's research reports offer comprehensive coverage of the fixed and mobile communications space and enable those in the communications industry to stay ahead of changing market dynamics.