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Fixed broadband penetration in Latin America, which stood at 5.0% at year-end 2008, is roughly 30% below the global average of 6.5%. The region’s 3G mobile penetration, at 3.4%, also ranks well below the global average of 7.8%. Understanding the link between broadband adoption and economic development, governments throughout Latin America have made broadband deployment a central theme of their political agendas. But without enhancing underdeveloped last-mile networks, government initiatives around computing devices and applications will be met with only limited success. Now regulators throughout Latin America, which have been slow to push forward initiatives aimed at enhancing last-mile connectivity, are now looking to accelerate the award of broadband spectrum, specifically WiMAX and 3G, in order to close the connectivity gap. Through these awards, Latin American regulators hope to inject additional competition into the market that will in turn reduce prices, extend coverage to underserved areas and make more bandwidth capacity available for the introduction of robust Internet applications.
In 2009, Pyramid Research expects 3G or WiMAX auctions to take place in Argentina, Brazil Chile, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela. We believe these spectrum auctions are essential stepping stones for the further development of broadband in the region and will contribute to theoverall growth in broadband subscription penetration, fixed and 3G mobile combined, from 9% at year-end 2008 to 70% at year-end 2014.
This Telecom Insider analyzes the impact of the upcoming spectrum auctions on the competitive environment of markets in Latin America and the expansion of broadband services in Latin America, identifying some of the opportunities that will open for industry players and subscribers. It includes case studies examining the following markets in more detail:
Key findings
- Regulators are hoping that the award of additional spectrum — by injecting competition into the market — will help address certain key inhibitors to adoption, such as the limited reach of existing broadband networks and the region’s current high price for broadband connectivity.
- The spectrum auctions in Argentina, Brazil Chile, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela will have a significant impact on the adoption of mobile broadband services in their respective countries and will increase penetration by means of fostering competition. Overall broadband connections — fixed and 3G — will increase from 48m at year-end 2008 to 426m at year-end 2014. A full 87% of all broadband net additions will come from mobile platforms (3G or WiMAX). In markets where the auctions impose no restrictions on incumbents or current frequency holders, we expect to see existing mobile players compete against existing fixed and pay-TV players trying to gain a foothold in the mobile market.
- In markets where restrictions have been established, we may see the entry of players new to the region.
- We believe the greatest impact of the new players will come from the response that they will elicit from existing, larger market players: Lower prices, wider network reach and innovation through new services and applications.
Table of contents
Introduction
WiMAX and 3G spectrum awards in Latin America
A. Latin American regulators move to award 3G and WiMAX spectrum, finally
B. One of the main objectives of the auctions is to promote competition by bringing in new players
C. New broadband subscriptions will largely be mobile — provided that auctions move forward as planned
Market detail
CASE STUDY: Chile
CASE STUDY: Brazil
CASE STUDY: Mexico
Conclusions
Key findings
Recommendations
Related resources
Table of exhibits
Exhibit 1: Broadband penetration of total population, by region, 2008
Exhibit 2: Average price of fixed broadband connections, by region, 2009
Exhibit 3: Timeline for spectrum auctions in Latin America, 2009
Exhibit 4: Concentration of various types of access lines in service by Latin America’s top two players, year-end 2008
Exhibit 5: Auction participation restrictions in selected markets
Exhibit 6: Potential auction participants, by country
Exhibit 7: Fixed broadband and 3G subscriptions in Latin America, 2005-2014
Exhibit 8: Fixed broadband and 3G net subscription additions by country, 2008-2014
Exhibit 9: Fixed broadband and 3G subscriptions in Chile, 2005-2014
Exhibit 10: Fixed broadband and 3G subscriptions in Brazil, 2005-2014
Exhibit 11: Fixed broadband and 3G subscriptions in Mexico, 2005-2014
Companies mentioned in this report
America Móvil
Axtel
Brasil Telecom
Cablevisión/Televisa
China Telecom
Claro
CTBC
Digitel
Embratel
Entel PCS
Grupo Clarín
GVT
Movilnet | Movistar
NET Serviços
Nextel
Oi
Telcel
Telefónica
Telemar
Telmex
Telmex International
Telsur
T-Mobile
Vodafone
VTR |
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