世界各国のリアルタイムなデータ・インテリジェンスで皆様をお手伝い

目次

Table of Contents

Table of Exhibits

通信とメディアのビジネスモデルについて調査している。コア市場は飽和しており、市場参入の障害は少なく、新しいサービス配信チャネルが登場し、サービスの消費は全く新しい段階を迎えている。インターネットが普及し、ブロードバンドが今後5年間の固定とモバイル通信オペレータの主要な収益成長の牽引要因となるだろう。(後略) Description Communications and media business models are undergoing an overhaul. Core markets are being saturated, barriers to market entry are lowered as new service delivery channels emerge, and service consumption has taken a whole new shape. The Internet has become the means to all ends, and broadband will be the main driver of revenue growth for fixed and mobile operators over the next five years. In this brave new world, network infrastructure is valued less than eyeballs, and ownership of the customer is not so much a function of the access line they subscribe to, but of the applications and services they are using and paying for. In this applications-centric environment, an operator cannot merely provide infrastructure or it is bound to be marginalized. True, the pipes are still needed, but operators will need to put more emphasis on smart networks to sidestep commoditization and sustain revenue growth. As the global economy braces for a major contraction, this comprehensive report provides Pyramid Research’s global review and projection of fixed and mobile broadband adoption and revenue trends, identifying the best practices, broadband technologies, services and markets that will drive future growth. We also examine the evolution of fixed and mobile broadband business models, convergence services and the role of IMS, with a focus on winning strategies for the three pillars of this new applications-focused framework — access, content and devices.

Key questions answered

• What are the growth prospects for fixed and mobile broadband services worldwide?
• With the inevitable evolution toward dumb pipes, how can broadband providers remain relevant and sustain revenue growth? What is the role of IMS in this context?
• Which markets, services and technologies will drive fixed and mobile broadband growth through 2013?
• Can mobile broadband substitute for fixed broadband access, particularly in emerging markets?
• What is the impact of service bundles on subscriber uptake, churn rates, ARPU and service revenue?
• How do operator strategies on FMC vary, and what types of FMC services have been introduced to date?

Target audience

Operators
This report quantifies market demand for fixed and mobile broadband services over the next five years across the world and identifies emerging business models and best practices, giving you the fundamental tools to develop long-range plans and winning strategies.

Equipment and application providers
Determine where your future opportunities are by using Pyramid Research’s assessment of the largest and fastest-growing broadband markets as well as demand for broadband technologies and services. This report promises the analysis you need to take a larger share of operator spending with informed go-to-market strategies and creative solutions, particularly in a time of economic downturn worldwide.

Financial services, investment firms
This report provides a thorough grounding in the salient issues facing fixed, mobile and integrated operators today, and charts a means of sustaining revenue growth over the next five years. Benchmark the performance of broadband across different markets and regions and assess upcoming opportunities in the sector.

Companies mentioned in this report:

3 Ireland 3 UK Alcatel-Lucent AOL UK Apple AT&T Bouygues Telecom BSkyB BT Carphone Warehouse Cisco Systems Clearwire Comcast Deutsche Telecom Digitel Venezuela D-Link Systems eBay France Telecom Google

HTC Hutchison Whampoa Iliad ip.access KDDI au Kineto Wireless KT Freetel LG Electronics Linksys Movistar Uruguay MySpace Nokia NTT DoCoMo O2 Orange Orange France Samsung SFR Sirius XM Radio

Skype Smart Communications Sprint Nextel Telefónica Telefónica O2 TeliaSonera Telstra Tigo Paraguay T-Mobile T-Mobile UK T-Mobile USA Universal Music Verizon Communications Verizon Wireless VimpelCom Vivendi Vodafone YouTube

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Table of Contents

Executive summary
Section 1: The status and promise of broadband services
    1.1 The rise of broadband as the growth frontier
         Mobile access: A more viable broadband option for the masses
         Governments take leading roles in the push for broadband
    1.2 The necessary three-front broadband strategy
         Broadband access options: In which direction will the scales tip?
         From the walled garden to application stores and multiplatform content relationships
         Broadband-enabled devices: From merely a mobile handset to laptops, netbooks and kitchen appliances
    1.3 Convergence trends dominate the marketplace
         Convergence — value creation or value destruction?
         Monetizing the broadband network beyond access
         The need for horizontal presence and vertical structure
    CASE STUDY: FMC initiatives in the US
Section 2: Growing demand for fixed broadband, regional disparities and multiplay dynamics
    2.1 The ever-expanding broadband realm
         Growth shifts to emerging markets
    2.2 Largest and fastest growing markets for broadband accounts
         Largest markets for broadband subscribers
         Fastest growing markets for broadband subscribers
    2.3 Adoption of fixed broadband technologies
         DSL holds the largest market share
         FTTx will grow the fastest
    2.4 Growth in global broadband revenue to slow
         Impact of higher throughput rates on customer spending
         Declining prices, ARPS and revenue growth
    2.5 Broadband revenue and growth by countries
         Largest markets for broadband revenue
         Fastest growing markets for broadband revenue
    2.6 Barriers to broadband adoption
         Broadband is too expensive for many in emerging markets
         PC ownership and affordability
    2.7 Bundles promote broadband adoption
         CASE STUDY: Triple-play drives Comcast’s VoIP and broadband growth
Section 3: Data bundles, 3G and the growing mobile broadband traffic
    3.1 Adoption of 3G — and with it, mobile broadband service — gains momentum
         Emerging markets lag in 3G adoption
    3.2 Adoption of 3G correlates with postpaid adoption
    3.3 Despite 3G momentum, low-bandwidth applications still dominate the mobile broadband experience
         Almost all mobile subscribers use SMS
         3G-enabled applications will not be the most popular
    3.4 Where mobile broadband subscriptions come from
    3.5 UMTS/HSPA dominates all other mobile broadband technologies
         The future of WiMAX is uncertain
         LTE will have to wait for its turn in the spotlight
    3.6 The impact of data usage on ARPS
         The effect of 3G on data spending
         CASE STUDY: Data bundles and all-3G strategy of 3 UK produce highest data ARPS
    3.7 Mobile data revenue to more than double by 2013
         Drivers of mobile data revenue
         Regional disparities in mobile data revenue
    3.8 SMS will continue as the primary data driver, but Web access will gain traction
         Decelerating SMS growth will be offset by 3G-enabled services
    3.9 Mobile data bundles, a stimulus for revenue?
         CASE STUDY: Verizon’s messaging buckets yield increased usage and higher revenue, despite a lower price per message
    3.10 Are data bundles the upside to mobile broadband?
         CASE STUDY: Telstra targets Australian households in rural areas with mobile broadband at a premium
         Related resources

Table of Exhibits

Exhibit 1: The downward trend of global fixed telephony revenue, 2004-2013
Exhibit 2: Mobile services penetration of population by region
Exhibit 3: Average number of mobile operators per country by region, 2004-2008
Exhibit 4: Average combined market share of top two players per country by region, 2004-2008
Exhibit 5: Mobile voice ARPS in 2004, 2008 and 2013, by region
Exhibit 6: Broadband access lines worldwide by technology, 2004-2013
Exhibit 7: Operator service revenue breakdown, worldwide 2004-2013
Exhibit 8: Global broadband revenue mix — mobile vs. fixed broadband
Exhibit 9: Correlation of broadband penetration with GDP per capita
Exhibit 10: Increasing throughput and the impact on content and device ecosystems
Exhibit 11: Performance comparison of select fixed broadband technologies
Exhibit 12: Migration timelines for 3G and 4G network technologies
Exhibit 13: Pros and cons of LTE and WiMAX
Exhibit 14: Content distribution channels
Exhibit 15: Select integrated touchscreen phones
Exhibit 16: Global smartphone unit sales, and smartphones as a proportion of total handsets, 2007-2013
Exhibit 17: Churn rates of single-service and bundle subscriptions in France, 2007
Exhibit 18: Impact of multiplay bundles on Comcast’s ARPS
Exhibit 19: Impact of new broadband-enabled services on telecom revenue in France, 2007 and 2012
Exhibit 20: The emergence of integrated players — BT, France Telecom, Telefónica, Telmex and Vodafone
Exhibit 21: T-Mobile’s UMA-based FMC vs. Sprint’s femtocell-based FMC
Exhibit 22: Global Internet adoption and broadband household penetration, 2007-2013
Exhibit 23: Net broadband subscriber line growth rates, 2007-2013
Exhibit 24: Broadband household penetration in regions worldwide, 2008 and 2013
Exhibit 25: Fixed Internet users and fixed Internet accounts as percentages of population in Africa & the Middle East, Central & Eastern Europe and Latin America.
Exhibit 26: Broadband subscriber lines in 10 largest markets, 2008 and 2013
Exhibit 27: Ten fastest growing markets* by broadband subscriber lines, 2008 to 2013
Exhibit 28: Breakdown of global broadband lines by network technology, 2007-2013
Exhibit 29: Regional breakdown of global FTTx access line total, 2008
Exhibit 30: Global fixed broadband ARPS by network technology, 2008-2013
Exhibit 31: Global broadband ARPS by region, 2008-2013
Exhibit 32: Global broadband revenue and growth rates, 2008-2013
Exhibit 33: Top 10 broadband markets by revenue, 2008 and 2013
Exhibit 34: Ten fastest growing broadband markets by revenue, 2008-2013
Exhibit 35: Broadband ARPS vs. GDP per capita in select markets in 2007
Exhibit 36: Broadband ARPS as a percentage of GDP per capita by region in 2008 and 2013
Exhibit 37: PC penetration rates by region, 2008 and 2013
Exhibit 38: Global VoIP and IPTV revenue outlook, 2008-2013
Exhibit 39: ARPU and RGU growth for Comcast
Exhibit 40: Mobile subscribers and penetration forecast, 2007-2013
Exhibit 41: Breakdown of the world’s mobile and 3G+ users, 2008 and 2013
Exhibit 42: Postpaid and 3G+ penetration of mobile subscriptions by region, 2013
Exhibit 43: Mobile broadband user forecast, 2007-2013
Exhibit 44: Adoption of mobile data by application, 2007-2013
Exhibit 45: Top 10 markets by 3G+ users, 2008 and 2013
Exhibit 46: Top 10 markets for 3G+ user growth, 2008-2013
Exhibit 47: Technology breakdown of 3G+ users, 2008 and 2013
Exhibit 48: Regional breakdown of WiMAX adoption, 2013
Exhibit 49: Growth in global mobile data revenue, 2007-2013
Exhibit 50: Mobile data ARPS by region, 2008 and 2013
Exhibit 51: Select MNOs for data ARPS, 2008 estimate
Exhibit 52: Mobile data packages, plans and prices of 3 UK
Exhibit 53: Drivers of increasing mobile data revenue, 2008-2013
Exhibit 54: Global broadband revenue by region, 2008 and 2013
Exhibit 55: Top 10 markets by mobile data revenue, 2008 and 2013
Exhibit 56: Top 10 markets by absolute growth in mobile data revenue from 2008 to 2013
Exhibit 57: Ten fastest growing markets for mobile data revenue, 2008-2013
Exhibit 58: Mobile data revenue breakdown, 2008 and 2013
Exhibit 59: SMS bundle pricing in select markets, Q3 2008
Exhibit 60: SMS usage and data revenue trends at Verizon Wireless
Exhibit 61: Average spending on fixed and mobile Internet services, 2008
Exhibit 62: US and UK average fixed-broadband tariffs and restricted mobile broadband plans
Exhibit 63: Telstra’s mobile broadband and ADSL plans and prices

(日本語訳)

不況にもかかわらず、ブロードバンドは今後5年間のオペレータの成長を促進する

マサチューセッツ州ケンブリッジ、2008年12月2日
米国調査会社ピラミッドリサーチ社の調査レポート「世界の固定・モバイルブロードバンドの展望:ネットワーク、ビジネスモデル、成長機会の変化」は、世界の固定とモバイルのブロードバンドの採用と収益のトレンドを調査し、今後の成長を促進する最善の方法やブロードバンド技術、ブロードバンドサービスを特定している。最新の固定とモバイルブロードバンドのビジネスモデルや統合サービス、IMSの役割を分析し、アクセス、コンテンツ、デバイスの3つの側面から勝てる戦略を導き出している。

「アプリケーション中心の環境では、オペレータは単なるインフラ提供にとどまることは出来ないか、あるいは取り残されることになるだろう。今日では、ネットワークインフラは目玉となることはできない。加入者はアクセスラインの所有にこだわってはおらず、利用料金を支払ってアプリケーションやサービスを使用するほうが望ましいと考えている」とこの調査レポートの共著者でピラミッドリサーチ社のブロードバンド＆メディア部門のシニア調査部長Ozgur Aytar氏は語る。

(後略)

(原文)

Despite Economy, Broadband Will Drive Operator Growth for Next Five Years, finds Pyramid Research

Cambridge, Massachusetts, December 2, 2008
As the global economy braces for a major contraction, the impact will be felt across the board, including in the broadband market. Nonetheless, with communications and media business models undergoing an overhaul, broadband will still be the main growth driver for fixed and mobile operators over the next five years, according to a new report from Pyramid Research, the telecom research arm of the Light Reading Communications Network.

Global Fixed and Mobile Broadband Outlook: The Transformation of Networks, Business Models and Growth Opportunities is a new report that delivers Pyramid Research's global projections of fixed and mobile broadband adoption and revenue trends, identifying the best practices, broadband technologies, services and markets that will drive future growth. This report also examines the evolution of fixed and mobile broadband business models, convergence services and the role of IMS, with a focus on winning strategies for the three pillars of this new applications-focused framework -- access, content and devices.
"In this applications-centric environment, an operator cannot merely provide infrastructure, or it is bound to be marginalized," notes Ozgur Aytar, Senior Research Manager of Pyramid Research's Broadband & Media Practice and coauthor of the report. "Today, network infrastructure is valued less than eyeballs, and ownership of the customer is not so much a function of the access line they subscribe to, but of the applications and services they are using and paying for."

The downturn can present significant opportunities, however, to those broadband players -- service providers and vendors alike -- positioned to take away business from competitors that are not faring as well. Pyramid Research's Global Fixed and Mobile Broadband Outlook provides the fundamental analysis that will equip broadband players with the visibility necessary to sail through the rough seas ahead.
The report offers objective insight into trends revealed in Pyramid Research's Broadband Technology Forecasts. Available for several regions and 60 countries, these Forecasts quantify demand and revenue for mobile and fixed broadband access by network technology as well as for broadband-based services, including VoIP, IPTV and mobile data services.