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It took nearly six years for UMTS/HSPA to reach 100m subscriptions, but we estimate LTE will take just over four years to reach the same milestone. The number of LTE subscriptions worldwide will grow at a CAGR of 404% from 2010 to 2014 and reach 136m by year-end 2014. All of the major vendors have committed to developing LTE-based equipment and devices within competitive timeframes while incorporating operator-driven specifications. LTE also appears to be in the works at most UMTS/HSPA and EVDO operators, but operator strategies and timing for deployments differ depending on the 3G technology in place and market conditions.
Fueled by vendor support of TDD-mode, growth in emerging markets will be driven largely by China, with 36.1m subscriptions in 2014. We believe that LTE, like WiMAX, will in some cases be used to provide broadband connectivity to areas that lack quality fixed infrastructure.
This Telecom Insider identifies the main technical and business drivers as well as the challenges for the LTE platform and analyzes its market opportunity in comparison with earlier mobile technologies in their first few years of commercialization. The report provides Pyramid Research’s five-year outlook on LTE adoption, highlighting the largest LTE markets and comparing adoption rates in emerging and developed markets. It also examines the LTE-related products, demos and announcements of six of the largest vendors worldwide, including an analysis of how they compare with one another in terms of time to market and customer wins.
The report also contains case studies of five vendors:
- Alcatel-Lucent
- Huawei Technologies
- Ericsson
- Motorola
- Nokia Siemens Networks
Key findings
- The standard’s spectral efficiency and enhanced capacity will enable operators to offer mobile broadband plans that create high mass-market demand while also supporting increasingly bandwidth-intensive applications such as video.
- At the earliest, USB dongles will be available in retail outlets by mid-2010 and handsets by mid-2011; we believe delays as well as interoperability issues could result in slower uptake than anticipated.
- Growth drivers include extensive vendor and operator support, aggressive equipment and network deployment targets, non-traditional embedded devices, a high likelihood of declining prices, demand for higher bandwidth and Chinese acceptance of the standard.
- The earliest LTE deployments will mostly come from developed markets, including Japan and the US. The latter boasts the most operators currently expected to deploy the standard in 2010 and 2011. Going forward, emerging markets will grow faster, led by China, which will account for more than 25% of LTE subscriptions in 2014.
Table of exhibits
Exhibit 1: Comparison of subscriber adoption curves by technology
Exhibit 2: Timeline of LTE network equipment and device readiness
Exhibit 3: Expected operator deployments
Exhibit 4: Breakdown of LTE adoption into emerging and developed markets
Exhibit 5: Select vendor LTE timeframes, operator trials and contracts
Exhibit 6: Alcatel-Lucent’s partnerships and nG Connect Program ecosystem
Exhibit 7: Timeline of Ericsson’s LTE initiatives
Exhibit 8: Nokia’s outlook for LTE devices
Companies mentioned in this report
Aeroflex
Aircell
Alcatel-Lucent
Bell Canada
Bell Mobility
CenturyTel
China Mobile
China Telecom
Cox Communications
Ericsson
Fraunhofer Institute for Telecommunications
Fujitsu
Huawei Technologies
Hutchinson 3
KDDI
KTF
LG Electronics
LTE/SAE Trial Initiative (LSTI)
Metro PCS
Motorola
NEC
Next Generation Mobile Networks (NGMN)
Alliance
Nokia Siemens Networks | NTT Docomo
Orange
Panasonic Mobile Communications
Piltel
Qualcomm
Reliance Communications
Rogers Wireless
Samsung
SK Telecom
SmarTone-Vodafone
Sony Ericsson
Tele2
Telecom Italia
Telecom New Zealand
Telefónica
Telenor
TeliaSonera
Telstra
Telus
T-Mobile
Verizon
Wireless
Vodafone
ZTE Corp |
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