世界各国のリアルタイムなデータ・インテリジェンスで皆様をお手伝い

目次

価格・ご注文について

Table of Contents

Table of Exhibit

Description 多くの固定網オペレータにとって、次世代インフラへの移行は既に決定事項であり、問題はその時期である。それは、ファイバートゥーザカーブ(FTTC/VDSL)、ファイバートゥーザビルディング(FTTB)、ファイバートゥーザホーム(FTTH)と関わってくる。今日多くのブロードバンドサービスを配信しているADSLやHFCネットワークは、特に先進市場においては廃れつつある。動画、ピアトゥーピアのコンテンツ交換、ハイビジョンテレビ(HDTV)の同時配信がサポートできるような、より高いスループットへの需要が高まりつつあり、競争は激化している。新興成長市場でのアップグレードはまだ時間がかかりそうだが、モバイルブロードバンドオペレータなどとの競争が激化しており、固定網キャリアの光ファイバーへの移行の検討をうながしている。 For most wireline network operators, migrating to a next-generation infrastructure is no longer a matter of if, but when. This involves rolling out fiber to the curb (FTTC/VDSL), building (FTTB) or home (FTTH). ADSL and HFC networks, over which most broadband services are delivered today, are becoming obsolete, especially in developed markets: Demand for higher throughput is on the rise, competition is fierce, and more bandwidth is needed to support simultaneous delivery of such applications as video, peer-to-peer content exchange and high-definition television (HDTV). There is more leeway for the timing of upgrades in emerging markets, but growing competition from mobile broadband operators is also prompting wireline carriers to consider migrating to fiber. This report examines the deployments of FTTx networks in Asia-Pacific, North America and Western Europe, which have now passed the stage of early adopters and are led by both telecom incumbents and competitive broadband network operators. It uncovers operators#8217; broadband strategies, current and planned services, operational and financial performance, and best practices with fiber in the last mile. This report revisits the economic and technological comparison between FTTC/VDSL2 networks, gigabit passive optical networks (GPONs) and P2P fiber networks, providing an update on the development of upcoming fiber technologies such as WDM-PON and 10G PON. It provides a five-year outlook on fiber adoption trends, from FTTH subscribers to a breakdown of homes passed by the different flavors of fiber. This is all done in light of the ongoing global economic contraction, which calls for rethinking the established positions of all participants in the value chain — operators and vendors alike.

Key questions answered

• Is the economic downturn reducing the urgency to upgrade access networks to fiber?
• Who is deploying FTTx, and what drove the migration decisions?
• How big is the FTTx opportunity in emerging markets? What are the key differences in the FTTx business models of developed and emerging markets?
• For the FTTx pioneers, what have been the main economic implications of launching commercial services? Have costs or benefits been greater? What is the impact on subscriptions, ARPS, churn and costs?
• How do network investments vary between the different flavors of fiber?
• How long does it take to break even on fiber investments?
• What has been the impact of fiber network deployments on the adoption and marketing of ADSL?
• Is VDSL sufficient to support currently demanded applications? What will it take to upgrade a VDSL-based network to one of the faster FTTH technologies?
• Is it worth squeezing more value out of copper networks and waiting for the next generation of optical technologies, such as WDM-PON?

Target audience

Operators
This report provides forecasts for operator adoption of FTTx technologies, quantifies market demand for FTTH services over the next five years and identifies successful strategies for positioning, pricing and promoting FTTx-based offerings, giving you the fundamental tools to develop long-range plans and winning strategies.

Equipment and application providers
Using Pyramid Research’s assessment of the largest FTTx markets, determine where your opportunities are. This report includes insights into the top operators’ plans for network upgrades, new services and investments — the information you need to formulate informed go-to-market strategies and creative solutions to win a larger share of operator spending, particularly in the middle of a worldwide economic downturn.

Financial services, investment firms
This report provides a thorough grounding in the salient issues facing commercial FTTx networks today, offering current and projected adoption rates for FTTx technologies and FTTH services. Use this analysis to determine which players are best positioned to succeed and to assess upcoming opportunities in the FTTx market.

Companies mentioned in this report:

Akamai Athens Information Technology (AIT) Akado Alcatel-Lucent AT&T Belgacom Bell Canada Bharti Airtel Bouygues Telecom Bredbandsbolaget BSNL BT Charter Communications China Telecom Chungcheong Media Broadcasting Circuit City Cisco Systems City Telecom Comcast Completel Dansk Energi Deutsche Telekom DirecTV Discovery Networks International Dom.ru EchoStar Eircom Ireland Electronics and Communications Research Institute EnergiMidt Ericsson Etisalat

Fastweb France Telecom Free FTTH Council Golden Telecom Hanaro Telecom HanseNet HKBN (Hong Kong Broadband Network) Hong Kong Broadband Network (HKBN) Iliad Infineon Jazztel Kabel BW Kabel Deutschland KPN KT LG-Nortel Magyar Telekom MTV Networks NetCologne Neuf Cegetel Nintendo Nokia Siemens Networks Noos Nortel Novera Optics NTT Numericable Ono Orange Orange España

Orange Slovensko Pirelli Qwerty Reggefiber Research Academic Computer Technology Institute SFR SingTel SK Broadband StarHub Swisscom T-Com TDC Tele2 España Telecom Italia Telefónica Telefónica España Telekom Slovenije Telenor TeliaSonera Time Warner Cable Unet BV Unitymedia Verizon Communications Verizon Wireless VimpelCom Virgin Media Vivendi Vodafone Wal-Mart Wilhelm.tel

---

Table of Contents

Table of exhibits
Acronyms and abbreviations
Companies mentioned in this report
Executive summary
Introduction
Section 1: Choosing the best next-generation access technology
        1.1 The business case for fiber: Why now?
             Maturing broadband markets
             With broadband service commoditized, broadband ARPS declines
        1.2 Fiber and service differentiation
             Competition from mobile broadband starts to squeeze low-end DSL plans
             MSOs raise competitive bar with DOCSIS 3.0
             Video, TV, peer-to-peer: The applications behind fiber upgrades
             VDSL can deliver HD, but no more than two streams
             New fiber-based applications
        1.3 Fiber technologies and deployment scenarios
        1.4 The next generation of fiber access technologies
        1.5 The cost equation
             FTTx rollouts: Capex implications in uncertain economic times
        1.6 A comparative analysis of FTTH and VDSL roadmaps
             Key considerations for selecting a fiber technology
             FTTC/VDSL: Cheaper technology boosted by latest advances
             Long-term considerations: Migration paths to next generation of broadband access

Section 2: Performance and lessons learned from first commercial FTTH services
        2.1 Fiber access adoption trends and the impact on ADSL and operator market shares
             The speeds: From 50Mbps on VDSL to 1Gbps on P2P
        2.2 FTTx revenue and capex trends, profitability outlook
             FTTx pricing: Encourage adoption or accelerate the payback?
             FTTx ARPS: Triple plays and value-added services are a must
             FTTx revenue and its contribution to the top line
             FTTx capex: Expensive for FTTH P2P and GPON
             Breaking even: The function of cost and ARPS
        CASE STUDY: NTT — the grandparent of FTTH services
             FTTx strategy: Driven by competition and aging ADSL infrastructure
             Network investment: NTT selects EPON technology — future-proof and cheaper to run
             Services and pricing
             Operational and financial performance
             Market impact
             Lessons learned
        CASE STUDY: KT moving from VDSL to EPON
             FTTx strategy: KT’s migration to FTTH is accelerating
             Network investment: VDSL and FTTH costs lowered by high population density
             Services and pricing
             Operational and financial performance
             Market impact
             Lessons learned
        CASE STUDY: Hong Kong Broadband Network’s ambition is to have the largest NGN in HK
             FTTx strategy: Centered around FTTB and triple play
             Network investment: Building FTTB from scratch
             Services and pricing
             Operational and financial performance
             Market impact
             Lessons learned
        CASE STUDY: Verizon Communications — the leading FTTH provider in the US
             FTTx strategy: Competing with cable
             Network investment: Verizon’s FTTH GPON deployment is aggressive and expensive
             Services and pricing
             Operational and financial performance
             Market impact
             Lessons learned
        CASE STUDY: AT&T choosing VDSL to deal with high cost
             FTTx strategy: AT&T chooses VDSL to compete with cable
             Network investment: AT&T upgrades to VDSL for reasons of cost and time to market
             Services and pricing
             Operational and financial performance
             Lessons learned
        CASE STUDY: Telefónica España mixes and matches GPON and VDSL
             FTTx strategy: More bandwidth for IPTV and competitive triple play
             Network investment: Telefónica shifts focus from VDSL2 to GPON
             Services and pricing
             Operational and financial performance
             Market impact
             Lessons learned
        CASE STUDY: FTTH from the Big Three operators in France
             Broadband market overview
             FTTH network rollouts: FTTH P2P and GPON
             FTTx network investment
             Legislation on FTTH is in place, but details will take a while to be ironed out
             Services and pricing
             Lessons learned
        CASE STUDY: The business case for fiber deployments in emerging markets
             Network investment: Different flavor of fiber for different market landscapes
             Deployment timeframes and impact of economic slowdown

Section 3: Global FTTH adoption forecasts
        3.1 Fiber access uptake: Asia-Pacific leads in a big way
             FTTB and FTTH in Asia-Pacific: National policies bring high penetration
             FTTx in Europe: Playing catch-up
             Global FTTB/FTTH homes passed and subscriptions
        3.2 Fiber’s market share and the outlook for copper
        3.3 FTTx standards: FTTB dominates, but GPON and E-FTTH are growing fast
Related resources


Table of Exhibits

Exhibit 1: Wireline broadband penetration of households
Exhibit 2: Monthly broadband ARPS (US$) by region, 2006-2012
Exhibit 3: Global fixed-line revenue (US$ billions), 2006-2013
Exhibit 4: Broadband cable as a percentage of all broadband households, Q1 2008
Exhibit 5: Ten markets with highest proportions of 5Mbps or faster broadband, Q2 2008
Exhibit 6: Multiservice household penetration
Exhibit 7: Applications and bandwidth requirements of multiplay households
Exhibit 8: FTTx deployment scenarios
Exhibit 9: Comparison of P2P, GPON and FTTC/VDSL2 technologies
Exhibit 10: Cost structure of a new fiber-optic network
Exhibit 11: VDSL2 download speeds at various distances
Exhibit 12: Tier 1 incumbent operator capex, 2004-2007
Exhibit 13: VDSL2/FTTH technology migration paths
Exhibit 14: FTTH/FTTB deployment timeline
Exhibit 15: FTTH/VDSL subscribers — totals and percentage of total broadband lines, 2008
Exhibit 16: ADSL subscriber totals for NTT, KT and Verizon, 2002-2008
Exhibit 17: Broadband market shares prior to FTTx launches and today
Exhibit 18: Churn rates of single-service and bundle subscriptions in France, 2007
Exhibit 19: FTTH prices per Mbps
Exhibit 20: FTTH ARPS vs. overall broadband ARPS in 2008
Exhibit 21: NTT revenue breakdown, H1 2007 to H1 2008
Exhibit 22: Capex committed to FTTx
Exhibit 23: NTT fiber investment and network coverage
Exhibit 24: Price comparison of NTT’s FLET’S service plans
Exhibit 25: NTT ADSL and FTTH price comparison
Exhibit 26: Comparison of NTT’s prices for FTTH and ADSL
Exhibit 27: NTT fiber subscribers and market share
Exhibit 28: KT’s FTTH roadmap (2004-2015)
Exhibit 29: KT Megapass service prices in 2007 and 2008
Exhibit 30: KT’s share of wireline broadband market in South Korea, mid-2008
Exhibit 31: Market shares of wireline broadband technologies in South Korea (mid-2008)
Exhibit 32: HKBN capex, August 2008
Exhibit 33: HKBN’s and PCCW’s monthly fees for FTTH compared
Exhibit 34: HKBN subscriptions, August 2008
Exhibit 35: HKBN’s ARPS from H2 2005 to H2 2008
Exhibit 36: Verizon’s FiOS Internet service plans compared with new Comcast plans
Exhibit 37: Verizon’s FiOS TV prices
Exhibit 38: Verizon’s FiOS subscriber base
Exhibit 39: Breaking down Verizon’s FiOS TV customers by service package, Q3 2008
Exhibit 40: Verizon access line decline, 2005 to Q3 2008
Exhibit 41: FiOS broadband and video revenue — total and as a percentage of consumer revenue
Exhibit 42: AT&T’s U-verse Internet service plans
Exhibit 43: AT&T’s U-verse bundles prices
Exhibit 44: AT&T’s U-verse subscriber total, and U-verse TV subscribers as percentage of all AT&T TV subscribers, Q4 2006 to Q3 2008
Exhibit 45: AT&T regional consumer revenue per households served
Exhibit 46: Telefónica España: Imagenio prices
Exhibit 47: France broadband market shares, year-end 2007
Exhibit 48: FTTH homes passed in France, year-end 2007
Exhibit 49: France: FTTH capex plans, 2007-2012
Exhibit 50: Prices of 100Mbps fiber service in France
Exhibit 51: Largest cities in emerging economies, with population density and GDP
Exhibit 52: Markets with the highest estimated FTTH/FTTB penetration of households, year-end 2008
Exhibit 53: FTTH/FTTB homes passed in Asia-Pacific, 2007-2013
Exhibit 54: FTTH and FTTB subscriptions in Asia-Pacific, 2007-2013
Exhibit 55: FTTH and VDSL homes passed in North America
Exhibit 56: North America: FTTH, xDSL and cable subscribers
Exhibit 57: FTTH and VDSL homes passed in Western Europe, 2007-2013
Exhibit 58: FTTH homes passed and subscriber totals in Central and Eastern Europe, 2007-2013
Exhibit 59: FTTH/FTTB subscriptions in Western Europe, 2007-2013
Exhibit 60: Forecast of homes passed by FTTH globally, 2007-2013
Exhibit 61: Forecast of global FTTB/FTTH subscriptions, 2007-2013
Exhibit 62: FTTH’s, ADSL’s and cable’s shares of total broadband accounts, 2007-2013
Exhibit 63: FTTH subscriptions by standard, 2007-2013
Exhibit 64: FTTx rollouts by technology in Europe

(日本語訳)

光ファイバーへのアップグレードは止まらない

マサチューセッツ州ケンブリッジ、2009年1月6日
金融危機の現在においても、光ファイバーへのアップグレードは必要不可欠であると、米国調査会社ピラミッドリサーチ社とライトリーディング社の調査レポート「ラストマイルの光ファイバー:ベストプラクティス、導入動向、不況の影響」は報告する。

この調査レポートは、FTTxネットワークの展開を分析し、既存の通信会社や競争的なブロードバンドネットワークオペレータが市場参加しており、早期採用者の段階を終えつつあるアジア太平洋地域、北米、西欧の市場を調査している。世界の全世帯数の6％にあたる9億8000万世帯が既にFTTB/FTTHネットワークに加入しており、その他にVDSL2ネットワーク加入世帯が7億4000万ある。9億8000万世帯の70％がアジア太平洋地域で、2000年には日本のNTTが最もFTTHアップグレードを推進した。欧州と北米はそれぞれ世帯数の15％を占めており、今後5年間の進捗が予測されている。

「ピラミッドリサーチ社は、特に先進諸国において、通信会社のファイバー・トゥ・ザ・ホームの需要が高いことを確認した。ブロードバンド展開が成熟し、IPベースのビデオ、テレビ、対話型アプリケーションの需要が高まっているからである」とこの調査レポートの共著者でピラミッドリサーチ社のシニア調査マネージャのOzgur Aytar氏は語る。

(原文)

Progression of Fiber Upgrades is Now Unstoppable, New Pyramid Research Report Finds

Cambridge, Massachusetts, January 6, 2009
Despite the difficult financial climate, the progression of fiber upgrades is now inevitable, according to a new report from Pyramid Research, the telecom research arm of the Light Reading Communications Network.

Pyramid Research's latest report, Fiber in the Last Mile: Best Practices, Adoption Trends and the Impact of the Economic Downturn, examines the deployments of FTTx networks in Asia-Pacific, North America and Western Europe, which have now passed the stage of early adopters and are led by both telecom incumbents and competitive broadband network operators. As many as 98m homes—6% of all households worldwide—are now passed by FTTB/FTTH networks globally, and another 74m homes by VDSL2 networks. Of the 98m homes passed, 70% are located in Asia-Pacific, where NTT in Japan was among the first to pioneer large-scale FTTH upgrades in 2000. Europe and North America each accounts for 15% of the homes passed, and both have plenty of catching up to do in the next five years.

“We found that telcos’ need for fiber to the home remains strong, especially in developed markets, where deployments are driven by the maturity of the broadband markets and a proliferation of IP-based video, TV and interactive applications,” notes Özgür Aytar, Senior Research Manager at Pyramid Research and co-author of the report.

The report also found that with mobile operators now offering broadband at speeds and prices equivalent to entry-level ADSL subscriptions, telcos have little time to procrastinate.“After losing the voice game to mobile players in the early 2000s, fixed-line operators can hardly allow the same to happen with the broadband business, which has kept them afloat when voice revenue tanked”, adds Aytar.