U.S. Solar Energy Demand Dynamics / パイクリサーチ社

米国の太陽光発電需要分析:太陽電池プロジェクトの財務体質、政府の奨励策、市場成長促進要因、2015年までの予測

U.S. Solar Energy Demand Dynamics
Financing Structures, Government Incentives, and Market Drivers for Solar Photovoltaics Projects: 2009-2015

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パイクリサーチ社	2009年7月	US$ 3,500	76p	49点

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The United States has become one of the more aggressive nations in promoting alternative energy technologies, but at the federal level tax credits and depreciation incentives are not currently enough to encourage sustainable demand growth. Instead, some states and municipalities have taken the lead in providing incentives through a variety of mechanisms ranging from upfront rebates and property tax credits to renewable energy credits and even European-style feed-in tariffs. Pike Research’s extensive interviews with both end-users and manufacturers conclude that for sustained growth in the U.S., incentives must be increased at the federal level. Due largely to the credit crisis, funding for solar projects has been tight. In the U.S., this has particularly been the case, because banks are unwilling to lend to projects that have undetermined cash flows.

Our five-year outlook is that the combination of federal and state incentives and falling module prices will work together to dramatically increase demand in the U.S. As more banks become comfortable with funding these projects, and find ways to securitize the cash flows, we believe it will become an attractive revenue stream for solar lending divisions. Utilities, which are just now getting serious about meeting RPS goals, will likely take the lead in developing new solar projects. Until now, they have been unsuccessful in getting support from their ratepayers who would see up to a 10% increase in their utility bills. However, we believe that the emphasis that the Obama administration is placing on climate change will eventually filter into the fabric of American society, propelling the U.S. into a global leadership position in solar PV market share by 2014, according to our most recent forecast.

This Pike Research report examines demand-side dynamics for solar PV projects in depth, analyzing government incentives, financing structures, and internal rates of return on a state-by-state level. Cost components for solar project development are quantified in detail, and the report also includes forecasts for leading solar PV markets around the world in addition to the U.S., providing a clear and actionable view of the size and timing of market opportunities.

Key questions addressed

Which states provide the best subsidies to supplement federal tax credits?
How has the global credit crisis impacted solar demand, and what is the current financing environment?
What are recent trends in pricing for fully installed solar PV systems?
Why do lower installed costs have little impact without easing of credit?
What are the key government subsidy mechanisms for encouraging solar demand?
How will profitability be distributed within the solar value chain?

Who needs this report?

Utilities
Solar Project Developers
Solar Installers/Integrators
Solar Cell and Module Manufacturers
Solar Equipment Vendors
Government Energy and Environmental Agencies
Investment Professionals
Solar Industry Associations

Table of Contents

詳細資料は、お問い合わせフォームから請求してください。

1. Executive Summary

1.1 U.S. Lags Europe in Solar
1.2 Federal Incentives Fall Short
1.3 Areas Seeing the Greatest Demand
1.4 The Biggest Disappointments of 2009
1.5 The Financing Roadblock
1.5.1 Remedies for the Financing Shortfall
1.6 Module Prices
1.7 Five-Year Outlook
1.7.1 Returns and Demand

2. Governmental Demand Creation Mechanisms

2.1 European Feed-In Tariffs Light the Fire
2.2 Japan Used Cash to Hook Investors
2.3 U.S. State Renewable Portfolio Standards
2.4 U.S. Federal Investment Tax Credits and Other Incentives
2.5 Incentive Mechanisms at the State and Local Levels
2.5.1 State Rebate Programs
2.5.2 Adopting European-Style Feed-In Tariffs
2.5.2.1 Solar Renewable Energy Credits (SRECs)
2.5.3 Net Metering
2.5.4 Credit Multipliers and Set-Asides
2.5.4.1 Credit Multiplier Example
2.5.4.2 Solar Set-Aside in Addition to a Multiplier

3. Industry Demand Drivers

3.1 Legislation, Regulations, Incentives, and Subsidies
3.1.1 Module, BOS, and Installation Costs
3.1.2 Availability and Cost of Financing
3.1.3 DOE Loan Guarantees
3.1.3.1 DOE’s Solar Energy Technologies Program
3.1.4 Availability of Land for Utility-Scale Projects
3.1.5 Sizing Up the Rooftop Market
3.2 Credit Crunch
3.2.1 Eventual Financing Improvements

4. Economics Overview

4.1 Traditional Energy Sources
4.1.1 Short-Term Trends in Electricity Consumption
4.1.2 Regional Price Trends
4.1.3 Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis
4.1.3.1 LCOE Comparison between Power-Generating Technologies
4.2 Pricing

5. Segment Analysis

5.1 Residential Overview
5.1.1 Rebates from Utilities
5.1.2 Payment Methods
5.1.3 Aesthetic Premium
5.1.4 Absolute Power vs. Yield
5.1.5 Competing Technologies

6. U.S. Renewable Energy Demand Forecast

6.1 United States Continues to Lag Behind Europe
6.2 U.S. Energy Independence
6.3 The Stimulus Plan and Job Creation
6.4 The Pickens Plan

7. Regions and States

7.1 New Jersey
7.1.1 SREC Program Details
7.1.2 Utility Loan Programs
7.2 New York
7.2.1 Installers are the Gatekeepers
7.3 Connecticut
7.3.1 Rebate and Leasing Programs
7.3.2 Net Metering
7.4 Florida
7.4.1 Solar Energy System Incentives Program
7.4.2 Florida City Programs
7.4.2.1 Tallahassee
7.4.2.2 Gainesville
7.4.2.3 Orlando
7.5 North Carolina
7.5.1 NC GreenPower
7.5.2 Net Metering
7.6 Minnesota
7.6.1 Rebate Program (Xcel Energy)
7.6.2 Net Metering
7.6.3 Renewable Development Fund
7.6.4 PPAs
7.6.5 Residential Loans
7.6.6 RPSs
7.7 Texas
7.7.1 LoanSTAR Revolving Loan Program
7.7.2 Utility Rebates and Other Incentives
7.7.2.1 Austin Energy
7.7.2.2 Bryan Texas Utilities (BTU)
7.7.2.3 CPS Energy
7.7.2.4 Guadalupe Valley Electric Cooperative
7.7.2.5 Oncor Electric
7.7.3 State and Local RPS Targets
7.8 Colorado
7.8.1 Rebate Programs
7.8.2 Tax Exemptions
7.8.3 Net Metering
7.8.4 Solar Loans
7.9 Michigan
7.9.1 Rebates
7.9.2 Low-Income and Energy Efficiency Fund
7.9.3 Net Metering
7.9.4 Tax Exemptions
7.10 California
7.10.1 California Solar Initiative
7.10.2 New Solar Homes Partnership
7.10.3 Solar Loans
7.10.4 PPAs
7.10.5 Net Metering
7.11 Arizona
7.11.1 Tax Credits and Exemptions
7.11.2 Loan Programs
7.11.3 Rebate Programs
7.11.3.1 APS Renewable Incentive Program
7.11.3.2 SRP EarthWise Solar Energy Program
7.11.3.3 Sulphur Springs Valley EC SunWatts Rebate Program
7.11.3.4 TEP Renewable Energy Credit Purchase Program
7.11.3.5 Trico Electric Cooperative SunWatts Incentive Program
7.11.3.6 UES Renewable Energy Credit Purchase Program
7.11.4 City of Scottsdale
7.11.5 Net Metering
7.12 New Mexico
7.12.1 Tax Credits and Tax Exemptions
7.12.2 RECs
7.12.2.1 El Paso Electric Company
7.12.2.2 PNM
7.12.2.3 Xcel Energy
7.12.3 Net Metering
7.13 Washington
7.13.1 Solar Loans
7.13.1.1 Clallam County PUD
7.13.1.2 Clark Public Utilities
7.13.1.3 Ferry County PUD No. 1
7.13.1.4 Franklin County PUD
7.13.1.5 Klickitat PUD
7.13.1.6 Port Angeles Public Works & Utilities
7.13.1.7 Snohomish County PUD No. 1
7.13.2 Solar Rebates
7.13.2.1 Clallam County PUD
7.13.2.2 Franklin County PUD
7.13.2.3 Klickitat PUD
7.13.2.4 Orcas Power & Light
7.13.2.5 Port Angeles Public Works & Utilities
7.13.2.6 Richland Energy Services
7.13.2.7 Snohomish County PUD No. 1
7.13.3 PPAs and Net Metering
7.14 Oregon
7.14.1 Tax Credits
7.14.2 Grants
7.14.3 Production Incentives
7.14.4 Loan Programs
7.14.5 Rebate Programs
7.14.6 Net Metering

8. Company Directory
9. Acronym and Abbreviation List
10. Table of Contents
11. Table of Figures
12. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

Table of Charts and Figures

Cumulative Installed PV Capacity, World Markets: 2003-2015
Percentage of Installations in Rebated Areas, United States: 2008
Major Private Equity and Venture Capital Players by Transaction, United States: 2008
Expected Unlevered Internal Rate of Return by State, United States: 2009
Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison, United States: 2009
Spot Polysilicon Prices, World Markets: 2008-2010
Polysilicon Consumption, World Markets: 2006-2010
Spot and Contract Polysilicon Prices, World Markets: 2008-2010
Polysilicon Supply Projections by Producer Experience, World Markets: 2005-2012
Wholesale Module Prices, United States: 2004-2009
Average Residential Cost per Watt by Region (Includes Installer Markup), United States: 2008
Cell and Module Margins, World Markets: 2008-2009
Average Installed Price by State, United States: 2008
Residential and Non-Residential PV Consumption, United States: 2002-2006
Annual Electricity Sales by Sector, United States: 1980-2030
Residential and Non-Residential PV Installations by State, United States: 2008
Preferred Method of Payment by Region, United States: 2008
Value of Premium on Aesthetic Appearance, United States: 2008
Importance of Cell Efficiency to Customers, United States: 2008
c-Si and Thin-Film Market Share, World Markets: 2006-2015
Approximate Cell Efficiency by PV Technology, World Markets: 2008
Average Installation Size by State, United States: 2008
Share of Competing PV Technologies, World Markets: 2008
Installed Capacity, World Markets: 2008
Annual PV Market Growth, United States vs. All Other Regions: 2006-2015
Major Market PV Share, United States, Germany, and Spain: 2006-2015
Solar PV Installations by State, United States: 2007-2008
PV Company & Employment Growth, United States: 1998-2007
Stimulus Bill Breakdown for Energy Spending, United States: 2009
Share of Electricity Generation by Petroleum, United States: 2008
Solar Energy System Incentive Program, Florida: 2009
Xcel Renewable Portfolio Standard Schedule, United States: 2011-2020
Map of Renewable Portfolio Standards, United States: 2009
Map of RPS with Solar Provisions, United States: 2009
U.S. Department of Energy Loan Guarantee Breakdown - Round 2, United States: 2009
Electricity Generation by Fuel Source, United States
Major Feed-in Tariffs by Selected County: 2009
Significant State Rebate Programs
Gainesville Feed-In Tariff Schedule
CT Solar Lease Payment Program
Washington Solar Loan Programs

Table of Tables

Cumulative Installed PV Capacity, World Markets: 2002-2015
Major Feed-In Tariffs by Selected Country: 2009
DOE Loan Guarantee Breakdown - Round 2, United States: 2009
Major Private Equity and Venture Capital Players by Transaction: 2008
State by State Internal Rate of Return, United States: 2009
Renewable Energy Consumption, United States: 2008
Cell and Module Margins, World Markets: 2008-2009
PV Market Forecast by Country/Region, World Markets: 1996-2015

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米国の太陽光発電需要は改善しているものの、財政が障害に

2009年7月27日
米国の太陽光プロジェクトの需要は、ドイツやスペインなどの市場リーダーには遅れているものの、政府や州の補助金の増額が効果をあらわし始めており、ニュージャージー州やカリフォルニア州などでの市場需要が高まってきている。米国の環境保護関連市場調査会社パイクリサーチ社の調査レポート「米国の太陽光発電需要分析:太陽電池プロジェクトの財務体質、政府の奨励策、市場成長促進要因、2015年までの予測 - U.S. Solar Energy Demand Dynamics: Financing Structures, Government Incentives, and Market Drivers for Solar Photovoltaics Projects: 2009-2015」は、米国の太陽光発電市場は2009年にスペインを抜き、2013年にはドイツを抜いてトップに躍り出るだろうと報告している。しかし同時に、太陽光プロジェクトの財政はつかみ所がないとも指摘している。

「Tax Equity(租税平等法)の減少や高い信頼性が要求されるようになっていることから、多くのプロジェクトがキャンセルになったり、全国的に遅れが出ており、ニュージャージー州だけでも75MW、総額4億5000万ドルのプロジェクトが休業している。しかし、Wells FargoやU.S. Bancorpなどの太陽光発電のためのTax Equityファンドから創設した企業が示すように、流れは変わり始めている」とパイクリサーチ社の産業アナリストGeorge Kotzias氏は語る。パイクリサーチ社は、米国のFirst Solar、SunPower、Suntech、Yingli、Akeena、Real Goods Solarなどの太陽光発電企業は、利益をだすことができるようになるだろうとみている。

「財政状況がよくなれば、需要はすでにある。その上、補助金が増加し、モジュールの価格が半額になり、導入コストが30％下落している」とKotzias氏は語る。これらの促進要因によって、欧州や多くの国内のデベロッパーが市場参入するだろう。

この調査レポートは、政府の奨励策、財務体質、州毎の内部収益率を分析している。太陽光発電プロジェクトの部品コストも詳細に示し、太陽光発電市場の予測、市場機会の規模と時期を示している。

(原文)
U.S. Solar Demand Improving but Financing Remains a Roadblock

July 27, 2009

The appetite for solar projects in the United States has lagged market leaders like Germany and Spain, however increased federal and state subsidies have begun to take effect and demand for solar in certain markets like New Jersey and California is heating up. According to a new report from Pike Research, the U.S. solar market will surpass Spain in 2009 and will top Germany by 2013. However, the firm points out that financing for solar projects remains elusive.

“The weak supply of tax equity combined with heightened credit requirements has led to numerous project cancellations and delays nationwide, with over 75 MW, totaling $450 million, of idle projects in New Jersey alone,” says industry analyst George Kotzias. “But the tide is beginning to turn as evidenced by Wells Fargo and U.S. Bancorp – both of which have established tax equity funds for solar projects.” In Pike Research’s analysis, solar companies that stand to benefit most from a U.S. boom include First Solar, SunPower, Suntech, Yingli, Akeena, and Real Goods Solar.

“As soon as financing picks up, the demand is there,” says Kotzias. “In addition to the increase in subsidies, module prices have dropped by as much as 50% and installed costs have dropped over 30% over the past year,” he adds. This combination of drivers has attracted the market entry of established developers from Europe as well as many domestic start-ups.

Pike Research’s study, “U.S. Solar Energy Demand Dynamics”, analyzes government incentives, financing structures, and internal rates of return on a state-by-state level. Cost components for solar project development are quantified in detail, and the report also includes solar PV market forecasts, providing a clear and actionable view of the size and timing of market opportunities.