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この調査レポートは、産業向け分散型電源 (IDG)市場を既存の垂直統合の法規制と新しいグリッドレベルでのオープン化された卸売市場の両面から、調査・予測しています。

The market for distributed generation at the industrial scale is dominated by energy supply concepts that predate the utility industry, where industrial users choose to generate their own energy requirements rather than rely on outside supply. At the same time, the industrial distributed generation (IDG) market landscape is beginning to include new technologies, systems, business models, and service providers that are altering how traditional transmission and distribution systems are controlled and operated.

Although incentives have facilitated growth in some sectors of this market, the state of the economy, uncertainties in natural gas prices, and diminished access to capital are deterrents to growth, particularly for combined heat and power (CHP) installations. At the same time, third party providers are creating a new class of large scale distributed generation by aggregating much smaller units into industrial sized blocks of power, selling energy, capacity and ancillary services into wholesale markets or in bilateral contracts with utilities, or incorporating them into energy management systems that combine generation with load curtailment.

This Pike Research report examines industrial distributed generation in both the traditional vertically integrated regulatory framework, as well as in the new grid-level open wholesale markets. Typical systems, business cases, and key participants are discussed, dividing the market into the mature sector of combined heat and power; the evolving sectors of aggregated generation and renewable IDG; and the nascent sectors of biomass/biogas and data center CHP. Capacity forecasts are provided through 2016 under three economic growth scenarios, and company profiles are provided for key industry players.

Key Questions Addressed:

• The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission – agent of market reform?
• In what ways are large industrial firms incorporating MW scale renewable distributed generation?
• How can end users take underutilized generation assets and use them as a source of additional revenue streams?
• Which distributed generation market sectors have installed capacities that are still small fractions of their overall technical potential?
• Where are the ideal regional markets for industrial scale distributed generation?

Who needs this report?

• Industrial power users
• Data center operators
• Real estate developers
• Risk mitigation and commodity hedging service providers
• Utilities
• Government agencies
• Investor community

Table of Contents

詳細資料は、お問い合わせフォームから請求してください。

1. Executive Summary 

1.1 Industrial-Scale Distributed Generation
1.2 An Evolving Definition
1.3 Regulatory Frameworks and the Emergence of Demand Response
1.4 Market Participants
1.5 Evolving and Nascent Markets Addressed in the Report
1.6 Scenario Forecasting and the Economy
1.7 Drivers

1.8 Market Forecasts 2011-2016

1.8.1 Current Installed Capacity
1.8.2 IDG Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues

2.1 Distributed Generation at the Industrial Scale

2.1.1 IDG- A Mix of Mature and Evolving Markets
2.1.1.1 The Business Cases for IDG
2.1.1.1.1. End-user Energy Supply
2.1.1.1.2. Peak Electricity Generation
2.1.1.1.3. Energy Attributes
2.1.1.1.4. Ancillary Services
2.1.1.2 Unrestructured Markets
2.1.1.3 Wholesale, Restructured Markets
2.1.1.3.1. North American ISOs/RTOs
2.1.1.3.2. ISO/RTO Wholesale Markets
2.1.2 Market Participants
2.1.2.1 End-users
2.1.2.2 Curtailment Service Providers
2.1.2.3 Third-Party Build-Own-Operate-Maintain
2.1.2.4 Utilities

2.2 IDG Technologies by Application

2.2.1 End-user Energy Supply
2.2.1.1 Continuous Duty
2.2.1.1.1. CHP
2.2.1.1.2. Other Continuous Duty Technologies
2.2.2 Peaking electricity generation
2.2.3 Ancillary Services
2.2.3.1 Regulation
2.2.3.2 Spinning and Supplemental Reserves
2.2.3.3 Emergency Services/Reserves
2.2.3.4 Voltage Support/Reactive Power
2.2.4 Other Benefits

2.3 Market Segmentation

2.3.1 U.S. Installed Capacity IDG by Technology
2.3.1.1 Single Units
2.3.1.1.1. Combined Heating and/or Cooling and Power
2.3.1.1.2. Fuel Cells
2.3.1.1.3. Solar
2.3.1.2 Units Aggregated to at least 1 MW capacity
2.3.2 Global Installed Capacity

2.4 IDG Growth Drivers

2.4.1 Regulatory Incentives
2.4.1.1 Feed-in Tariffs
2.4.1.2 Net Metering Policies
2.4.1.3 Federal Tax Incentives
2.4.1.4 State Incentives
2.4.1.5 Utility Renewable Portfolio Standards
2.4.1.6 Renewable Energy Certificates
2.4.1.7 FERC Reforms and Wholesale Market Evolution
2.4.2 Implementation Issues/Challenges
2.4.2.1 CHP and Natural Gas Price Uncertainty
2.4.2.2 REC Value Decline as RPS Goals are Achie
2.4.2.3 Regulatory Framework and Costs Differ From State to State
2.4.2.4 Emissions Limitations and Air Permits
2.4.2.5 Insufficient Scale for Project Financing

3. Technology Issues

3.1 IDG Applications/Value Propositions Attractive to Each Participant

3.1.1 End-user
3.1.1.1 Energy Savings
3.1.1.2 Additional Revenue Streams in Unbundled Markets
3.1.1.3 Power Quality and Reliability
3.1.2 Utility
3.1.2.1.1. Bulk Power Supply
3.1.2.1.2. Peaking
3.1.2.1.3. Transmission Congestion Costs
3.1.2.1.4. Transmission and Distribution Infrastruction
3.1.3 Grid Operator
3.1.3.1 Capacity value
3.1.3.2 Reserves and regulation
3.1.3.3 Reactive Power Supply and Voltage Control
3.1.4 Third-Party Providers
3.1.4.1 Demand Response Providers- Aggregating Generation
3.1.4.2 Build-Own-Operate Service Providers

3.2 IDG Applications Cost Structures and Hurdle Rates

3.2.1 CHP
3.2.2 Fuel Cells

3.3 Strengths and Weaknesses of IDG Technologies

3.4 Representative Case Studies

3.4.1 Utility-Owned IDG
3.4.1.1 Distribution Infrastructure
3.4.1.2 CHP
3.4.2 Third-Party IDG
3.4.2.1 Aggregated Resources- Viridity/EDSA
3.4.2.2 Aggregated Back-Up Generators- EnerNOC
3.4.2.3 Solar IDG
3.4.3 Build-Own-Operate- Aggregate
3.4.4 CHP Build-Own-Operate
3.4.4.1 Fuel Cells
3.4.4.2 Opportunity Fuels
3.4.5 End-user
3.4.5.1 CHP
3.4.5.2 Solar IDG
3.4.5.3 Fuel Cell Datacenter CHP

4. Key Industry Players

4.1 DG Prime Mover Manufacturers

4.1.1 Bloom Energy
4.1.2 2G-CENERGY
4.1.3 Caterpillar
4.1.4 Cummins
4.1.5 FuelCell Energy
4.1.6 GE Power
4.1.7 MWM, GmbH
4.1.8 UTC Power

4.2 Top Third-Party Energy Service Providers

4.2.1 Demand Response/Distributed Energy Resource Aggregators
4.2.1.1 Comverge
4.2.1.2 Energy Curtailment Specialists
4.2.1.3 EnerNOC
4.2.1.4 Johnson Controls (EnergyConnect)
4.2.1.5 Viridity Energy
4.2.2 Build-Own-Operate
4.2.2.1 Ameresco
4.2.2.2 Bloom Electrons
4.2.2.3 Logan Energy
4.2.2.4 Recurrent Energy
4.2.2.5 UTC Power

5. Market Forecasts

5.1 U.S. IDG Market

5.1.1 Established IDG Market
5.1.2 Emerging IDG Market
5.1.3 Nascent IDG Market

5.2 Economic Growth Assumptions

5.2.1 Established Market Capacity Forecast
5.2.2 Emerging Market Capacity Forecast
5.2.2.1 Fuel Cells and Renewables
5.2.2.2 Aggregated Generation
5.2.3 Nascent Market Capacity Forecast
5.2.3.1 Opportunity Fuels
5.2.3.2 Data Centers

5.3 U.S. IDG Market- Capacity Growth Forecast

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

• IDG Installed Capacity by Sector, United States: 2011
• IDG Market by Growth Scenario, United States: 2011-2016
• Average Hourly Demand, Pennsylvania/New Jersey/Maryland: June 23, 2011
• CHP and Total Electricity Generation, United States: 1997 – 2010
• CHP Installed Capacity, World Markets: 2007
• CHP Installed Capacity as a Percent of Total Electricity Generation, World Markets: 2005
• Industrial CHP Capacity, United States: 2011-2016
• Stationary Fuel Cell and Industrial Scale Renewable Generation Capacity, United States: 2011-2016
• Aggregated Distributed Generation Capacity, United States: 2011-2016
• Technical Market Potential, Practical Opportunity Fuels by Fuel Type
• Opportunity Fuels Distributed Generation Market, United States: 2011-2016
• Data Center IDG Market, United States: 2011-2016
• IDG Market by Growth Scenario, United States: 2011-2016
• IDG Market Share, Fits and Starts Scenario, United States: 2016
• IDG Market Share, Slow Growth Scenario, United States: 2016
• IDG Market Share, Optimism Scenario, United States: 2016
• IDG Market Geography
• PJM Price Contours
• North American Wholesale Electricity Markets
• Remaining Technical CHP Potential Market
• Optimum Capacities, CHP Technologies
• Relative Market Positions of CHP Prime Movers
• U.S. CHP Capacity by Application, Prime Mover, and Fuel
• State Net Metering Programs for CHP
• State Net Metering Programs Renewable Generation, 1 MW or Greater
• States with RPS Requirements or Goals
• Projected Sources of Natural Gas to Meet Projected North American Demand
• Shale gas offsets declines in other U.S. supply to meet consumption growth and lower import need, U.S. dry gas production (trillion cubic feet per year)
• NYMEX Natural Gas 12-Month Average Future Prices: April 1990-June 2010
• California IOUs Forecasted RPS Generation: Projected Out to 2020
• Ozone Non-Attainment Areas
• Voltage Sag and Outage Events as a Function of Voltage
• Recovery Period After 1-Second Outage
• Hypothetical Dispatching of Generation
• Transmission Congestion Costs, Massachusetts
• States Where DG is Reviewed as a T&D Upgrading Option
• California Regulation and Reserve Auxiliary Service Prices
• Aggregated Generation Permitting by State
• CHP Economic Viability, State “Spark Spreads”, 2010 Average Industrial Rates
• Hypothetical Payback Period, Simple CHP Turbine System, Connecticut Rates
• Annual CHP Capacity Additions: 2000 to 2010/2011

List of Tables

産業界の電力ユーザは分散型発電に転換中

2011年8月16日
産業規模での分散発電の市場は、産業ユーザが、電力産業よりも早く、自らのエネルギー需要対応を外部の電力供給にのみ頼るのではなく、発電することを選択するという考えに支配されている。同時に、産業用の分散発電では、新しい技術、システム、ビジネスモデル、従来の送電や配電システムの管理や運用の方法を変えようとしているサービスプロバイダの市場が始まりつつある。

米国の環境エネルギーなどの地球環境保護に関するクリーン技術関連市場の専門調査会社パイクリサーチ社の調査レポート「産業向け分散型電源市場調査:産業用発電アプリケーション向けコジェネレーションシステム (CHP)、集約型電源、機会燃料、データセンタ、燃料電池、再生可能エネルギー ー Industrial Distributed Generation:Combined Heat and Power, Aggregated Generation, Opportunity Fuels, Data Centers, Fuel Cells, and Renewable Energy for Industrial Power Applications」は、産業用の分散発電の市場は今後5年間で大きく成長するだろうと予測している。控えめの予測シナリオでは、産業用の分散発電の発電能力は、2011-2016年に91ギガワットから133ギガワットへと46％成長するだろうと予測している。産業用の分散発電に好ましい規制環境がとられると考える、より楽観的な予測シナリオでは、同期間に2011年から85％拡大して168ギガワットの発電量となるだろうと予測している。

「近年、産業用の分散発電は、しばしばコジェネレーション (CHP)と同義に扱われる。しかし、その割合は様々で、2011年の産業用分散発電市場全体にCHPが占める割合は86％だが、市場シェアは2016年には最少53％となるだろう。再生可能エネルギー、燃料電池、電力集約化、機会燃料、データセンターアプリケーションは、すべて、産業用発電市場でシェアを拡大する可能性が高い」とパイクリサーチ社の社長であるClint Wheelock氏は語る。

パイクリサーチ社の分析では、インセンティブがこの市場のいくつかのセクターで成長を容易にしたものの、現在の経済状態、天然ガス価格の不明確さ、資本調達の減少などのすべてが成長、特にコジェネレーションの導入の抑制要因である。同時に、サードパーティのプロバイダは、産業用規模のパワーブロックにかなり小さなユニットを組み込むことで、新しいクラスの分散発電を作り出している。すなわち、エネルギー、発電能力、アンシラリサービスを卸売市場や電力事業者との相互契約によって販売し、あるいはそれらをエネルギー管理システムに組み入れて、発電と負荷削減を結びつける。

この調査レポートは、従来の規定の枠組みにある垂直統合型と、新しいグリッドレベルのオープンな卸売市場の両方の産業用分散電源について調査している。代表的なシステム、ビジネスケース、主要市場参加者を論議し、市場をコジェネレーションと新しい集約型発電や再生可能産業向け分散型発電、そしてバイオマスやバイオガス、データセンターのコジェネレーションなどの始まったばかりの市場に分けて論じている。2016年までの発電容量を3通りの経済成長予測に従って予測し、主要企業の企業概要も記載している。

[プレスリリース原文]
Industrial Power Users Are Increasingly Turning to Distributed Energy Generation