世界各国のリアルタイムなデータ・インテリジェンスで皆様をお手伝い

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この調査レポートは、ビジネスとして成立する燃料電池自動車、燃料電池バス、燃料電池トラック市場における将来性と課題について分析していたします。また燃料電池車両の発展における主な市場成長促進要因と阻害要因についても調査しています。

Fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are part of the continuum of electric drive technologies, which are projected to capture an increasingly large share of the global passenger car and transit bus markets. For the passenger car market, fuel cells offer the benefits of zero emissions operation without the range and charging limitations of pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The fuel cell car market is now in the ramp-up phase to commercialization, anticipated by automakers to happen around 2015. The primary barriers for this market are cost and infrastructure deployment. Early adoption is likely to be focused in Japan, Germany, and California, where there is significant infrastructure investment planned.

Transit buses have been used as a test bed for fuel cell technology and lag somewhat behind cars in the timeframe for commercial viability. Transit fuel cell buses offer zero emissions and low noise operation, as well as greater fuel efficiency. Projections are for commercially viable transit buses to follow that of LDVs, with this market more dependent on subsidies or incentives for adoption than the car market.

This Pike Research report analyzes opportunities and challenges in the development of commercially viable fuel cell cars, buses, and trucks. The report provides an examination of the key market drivers and barriers for FCV development in the face of competition from incumbent internal combustion engine vehicles and new plug-in electric vehicles. The report includes a status update on the progress of fuel cell R&D toward meeting commercial technical and cost targets for cars and buses. The report also covers key countries’ policies promoting development and adoption of FCVs, strategies and plans of major industry players, and discussion of the vehicle segments and drivetrain configurations under development. The report forecasts global pre-commercial deployments of LDVs and buses through 2014, global commercial sales of LDVs and buses from 2015 through 2020, and potential revenue from fuel cell LDVs from 2015 through 2020.

Key questions addressed:

• What are the key vehicle segments where fuel cells offer a value proposition?
• What are the different types of fuel cell systems used in cars, trucks and buses?
• Why are automakers developing fuel cell cars when plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles are commercially available?
• What is the current timeline for commercial fuel cell cars and buses?
• What is the status of fuel cell technology in meeting commercial technical and cost targets?
• Which governments are supporting fuel cell car and bus development and adoption?
• Who are the key industry players in the fuel car, truck and bus markets?

Who needs this report?

• Vehicle manufacturers
• Vehicle component suppliers
• Fuel cell companies
• Electric drive manufacturers
• Battery manufacturers
• Hydrogen infrastructure providers
• Platinum suppliers
• Government agencies
• Industry associations
• Investor community

目次

Table of Contents

詳細資料は、お問い合わせフォームから請求してください。

1. Executive Summary

2. Market Issues

2.1 Introduction to Fuel Cells for Passenger Vehicles
2.1.1 History of Fuel Cell Vehicle Development
2.2 Current Status of Vehicle Development
2.2.1 Drivers for Current FCV Development Activities
2.2.2 Passenger Vehicles
2.2.2.1 Full-Size Passenger Cars
2.2.2.2 Microcars, City Cars, and NEVs
2.2.2.3 Major Demonstration Programs
2.2.3 Fleet Vehicles
2.2.4 U.S. Military
2.2.5 Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks
2.2.6 Transit Buses
2.2.6.1 Full-Size
2.2.6.2 Midibuses or Shuttle Buses
2.2.6.3 Articulated
2.2.7 Demonstration Projects

3. Technology Issues

3.1 Fuel Cell Technology Basics
3.1.1 PEM
3.1.2 SOFC
3.2 Fuel Cell System Configurations
3.2.1 Fuel Cell Dominant
3.2.2 Fuel Cell Range Extender
3.2.3 Fuel Cell Auxiliary Power Unit (APU)
3.2.4 Hydrogen ICE
3.3 Fuel Cell Vehicle Technology
3.4 Hydrogen Storage
3.5 Hydrogen Production

4. Market Drivers and Barriers

4.1 Emissions and Efficiency
4.2 Operational Characteristics
4.2.1 Range
4.2.2 Status of Other Operational Drivers
4.3 Durability
4.4 Cost
4.4.1 Hydrogen Fueling Costs
4.5 Government Programs
4.5.1 North America
4.5.1.1 United States
4.5.1.1.1. California
4.5.1.2 Canada
4.5.2 European Union (EU)
4.5.2.1 Germany
4.5.2.2 Scandinavia

5. Key Industry Players 

5.1 OEMs
5.1.1 BMW
5.1.2 Daimler A.G
5.1.3 Fiat/Chrysler
5.1.4 Ford
5.1.5 General Motors
5.1.6 Honda
5.1.7 Hyundai/Kia
5.1.8 Nissan/Renault
5.1.9 PSA Peugeot
5.1.10 Shanghai Automobile Industry Corporation
5.1.11 Toyota
5.1.12 Van Hool
5.1.13 Volkswagen
5.2 New Vehicle Developers
5.2.1 Metha Energy
5.2.2 Microcab
5.2.3 Proterra
5.2.4 Riversimple
5.2.5 Vision Motor Corp
5.3 Electronic Systems Developers and Integrators
5.3.1 ISE Corporation
5.4 Fuel Cell Developers and Manufacturers
5.4.1 Ballard Power Systems
5.4.2 EnerFuel
5.4.3 H2Logic
5.4.4 Hydrogenics
5.4.5 Intelligent Energy
5.4.6 Nedstack
5.4.7 Proton Motor
5.4.8 Serenergy
5.4.9 UTC Power

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

• Fuel Cell Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets:  2015-2020
• Fuel Cell Light-Duty Vehicle Pre-Commercial Deployments, World Markets:  2010-2014
• Fuel Cell Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets:  2015-2020
• Fuel Cell Transit Bus Sales, World Markets:  2010-2017
• Fuel Cell Transit Bus Sales, Lead Country Markets:  2010-2017
• Light Vehicle Revenue, World Markets:  2015-2020
• PEM Fuel Cell Schematic
• Well-to-Wheels Vehicle Efficiency Comparison
• Well-to-Wheel GHG Emissions for Future Mid-Size Car
• WTW GHG Emissions for Mid-Size Vehicles
• JHFC Comparison of CO2 Emissions per Kilometer of Driving
• Progress in Reducing Fuel Cell System Cost:  2002-2009
• GM Fuel Cell Propulsion System Cost Projections
• Commercialization Scenario, Japan
• Current and Planned Hydrogen Stations in California
• Vehicle Duty-Cycle Matrix

List of Tables

 

燃料電池車の販売は2020年に100万台を突破

2011年4月19日
燃料電池車(FCV)は、一連の電子運転技術のひとつであり、世界の乗用車やバス市場でのシェアはますます拡大するとみられている。乗用車の市場では、燃料電池は、ピュアバッテリー電気自動車を二酸化炭素排出ゼロで使用する際に、制限や充電の限度などがない。燃料電池市場は現在、商用化が急速に進んでおり、2015年ごろに自動車メーカーが発売するだろう。米国の環境エネルギーなどの地球環境保護に関するクリーン技術関連市場の専門調査会社パイクリサーチ社の調査レポート「燃料電池自動車市場調査:乗用車、中型/大型トラック、バス、水素内燃エンジン、燃料補給 - Fuel Cell Vehicles: Passenger Vehicles, Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks, Transit Buses, Hydrogen ICEs, and Fueling」は、燃料電池自動車の販売は2020年に100万台の大台に乗り、2020年末に120万台に達するだろうと報告している。

「実際のところ、クリーンエネルギーを軽く概観している人々にとっては、乗用車の燃料電池はまだ準備段階と見えるかもしれない。しかし、トヨタ、ダイムラー、GM、ホンダ、現代自動車などの自動車メーカーはみな、燃料電池自動車はクリーンエネルギー車の重要な一部であると述べている。燃料電池は、より大型の自動車で300マイルレンジでも二酸化炭素排出量ゼロを提供できるビジネスチャンスであると考えられている」と、パイクリサーチ社のシニアアナリストLisa Jerram氏は語る。

自動車メーカーは今後数年間、2015年の商用化をターゲットとして、性能を向上し、コスト削減を図るべきであると、Jerram氏は語る。早期導入が進むのは、多くの燃料インフラが計画されている日本、ドイツ、カリフォルニアだろう。燃料電池のテストケースとして、バスでの利用が始まっているが、バスは商用化のタイムフレームでは乗用車にはいささか遅れをとっている。燃料電池によるバスは、二酸化炭素の排出量がゼロで、運転音も静かであり、内燃エンジンよりも燃料効率が非常に高い。パイクリサーチ社は、バスの商用化の後には、購入の際の補助金やインセンティブが期待できる軽自動車が続くだろうとみている。

パイクリサーチ社は、2010-2014年の商用化の準備段階の期間に、約10000台の燃料電池自動車が普及するとみている。その後、2015年の燃料電池車の販売は57000台となり、2020年には年間39万台に急増するだろうと予測している。
(後略)

[プレスリリース原文]
Fuel Cell Vehicle Sales to Cross the 1 Million Mark in 2020

April 19, 2011
Fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are part of the continuum of electric drive technologies, which are projected to capture an increasingly large share of the global passenger car and transit bus markets. For the passenger car market, fuel cells offer the benefits of zero emissions operation without the range and charging limitations of pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The fuel cell car market is now in the ramp-up phase to commercialization, anticipated by automakers to happen around 2015. According to a new report from Pike Research, commercial sales of FCVs will reach the key milestone of 1 million vehicles by 2020, with a cumulative 1.2 million vehicles sold by the end of that year. 

“The fact that fuel cells for passenger cars are still being pursued may come as a surprise to casual observers of the clean vehicle technology arena,” says senior analyst Lisa Jerram. “However, automakers such as Toyota, Daimler, GM, Honda, and Hyundai have all said that fuel cells are a critical piece of a complete clean vehicle portfolio. With fuel cells, they see the opportunity to offer a zero-emissions car with a 300-mile range in the larger vehicle platforms.”

Jerram adds that, to meet the 2015 commercialization target, automakers will need to spend the next few years validating performance and reducing costs. Early adoption is likely to be focused in Japan, Germany, and California, where there is significant fueling infrastructure planned. Transit buses have also been used as a test bed for fuel cell technology, though they lag somewhat behind cars in the timeframe for commercial viability. Transit fuel cell buses offer zero emissions and low noise operation, as well as greater fuel efficiency than internal combustion engines. Pike Research’s projections are for commercially viable transit buses to follow that of light-duty vehicles (LDVs), with this market more dependent on subsidies or incentives for adoption than the car market.

Pike Research’s analysis indicates that, during the pre-commercialization period from 2010 to 2014, approximately 10,000 FCVs will be deployed. Following that phase, the firm forecasts that 57,000 FCVs will be sold in 2015, with sales volumes ramping to 390,000 vehicles annually by 2020. These figures represent a downgrade from Pike Research’s previous FCV forecasts published in the first quarter of 2010.

Pike Research’s report, “Fuel Cell Vehicles”, analyzes opportunities and challenges in the development of commercially viable fuel cell cars, buses, and trucks. The report provides an examination of the key market drivers and barriers for FCV development in the face of competition from incumbent internal combustion engine vehicles and new plug-in electric vehicles. The report includes a status update on the progress of fuel cell R&D toward meeting commercial technical and cost targets for cars and buses. The report also covers key countries’ policies promoting development and adoption of FCVs, strategies and plans of major industry players, and discussion of the vehicle segments and drivetrain configurations under development. The report forecasts global pre-commercial deployments of LDVs and buses through 2014, global commercial sales of LDVs and buses from 2015 through 2020, and potential revenue from fuel cell LDVs from 2015 through 2020.