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世界の車両の電力網統合の市場分析と予測:グリッドサービスにおけるプラグイン電気自動車

Vehicle Grid Integration

Managing Plug-In EVs in Grid Services: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

 

出版社 出版年月電子媒体価格ページ数図表数
Navigant Research
ナビガントリサーチ
2017年12月US$3,800
1-5ユーザライセンス(PDF+Excel)
48 45

サマリー

米国調査会社ナビガントリサーチ(Navigant Research)の調査レポート「世界の車両の電力網統合の市場分析と予測:グリッドサービスにおけるプラグイン電気自動車」は、送電網の信頼性と安定性を支えるために使用されるVGI (Vehicle Grid Integration)技術のビジネスチャンスを分析している。VGIの成長に関連する様々な要因と、主要な市場促進要因と阻害要因について考察している。プラグインハイブリッド車(PEV)、ネットワーク接続・双方向の充電ステーション(EVSE:Electric Vehicle Service Equipment)、VGIの容量と収益の2026年までの世界市場を予測している。主要なVGI技術と事例、主要な市場参加者の概要も記載している。

With range issues overcome and low costs for energy and maintenance, plug-in EVs (PEVs) are likely to steadily become the leading powertrain in light duty vehicle (LDV) transport by 2050 and in medium and heavy vehicle (MHDV) transport not long after. The electrification of transportation will increase load significantly. While basic load growth is good for the electric power sector, the uneven distribution of that growth within a focused location or at a specific time of day could prove burdensome for utilities. Actively managing and spreading the load across infrastructure assets and time via vehicle grid integration (VGI) technologies will prevent infrastructure upgrade costs and may also decrease grid balancing costs.

Though this may seem like a win-win for the electric power sector, VGI is still a fledgling solution with significant hurdles to overcome. Opportunities for deployment vary significantly by location depending on the confluence of a growing PEV population, an advanced grid, penetration of renewable resources, and encouraging grid regulatory structures. Such confluences are yet rare, but they will grow in number as PEV populations increase, grid operators adapt to new distributed energy resources (DER) technologies, and grid services become increasingly important to grid operation. According to Navigant Research, the global grid services market is expected to grow in capacity from nearly 198 GW in 2017 to more than 516 GW in 2026.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the market opportunity for VGI technologies to be used to support grid reliability and stability. The study considers various policy factors associated with the growth of VGI, as well as significant market drivers and barriers. Global market forecasts for PEVs, networked and bidirectional EVSE, and VGI capacity and revenue extend through 2026. The report also examines the major VGI technologies and case studies and profiles key market participants.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What challenges may hinder the commercialization of vehicle grid integration (VGI) technologies?
  • Which regulatory structures and grid services are best suited for VGI technologies?
  • Which regional markets are the best near-term opportunities and which are likely long-term opportunities?
  • What key factors influence VGI opportunities?
  • How will the market for VGI technologies be different for fleets and individuals?
  • Which companies are the key VGI market participants and how do they relate to each other?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive manufacturers and suppliers
  • EV supply equipment (EVSE) manufacturers
  • Utilities
  • Smart grid software companies
  • Grid operators
  • Corporate and government fleets
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community


目次

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Introduction

1.2   Market Forecast

2. Market Issues

2.1   Introduction

2.2   Barriers and Drivers

2.3   Suppliers and Consumers

2.4   Geography

2.4.1   North America

2.4.2   Europe

2.4.3   Asia Pacific

2.5   History

2.5.1   Individually Owned Vehicles

2.5.1.1   Avista Utilities

2.5.1.2   BMW iChargeForward

2.5.2   Fleet Vehicles

2.5.2.1   Light Commercial Vehicles

2.5.2.2   Buses

3. Technology Issues

3.1   Introduction

3.2   Equipment Capacity

3.2.1   Bidirectional Power

3.3   Management Software

3.4   Standards

4. Key Industry Players

4.1   Introduction

4.2   Hardware

4.2.1   BMW

4.2.2   eMotorWerks

4.2.3   Enel

4.2.4   First Priority GreenFleet

4.2.5   Ford

4.2.6   Nissan

4.2.7   Princeton Power

4.3   Software

4.3.1   FleetCarma

4.3.2   Greenlots

4.3.3   Kisensum

4.3.4   NUVVE

4.4   Aggregators

4.5   Industry Stakeholders

4.5.1   EPRI

4.5.2   Berkeley Lab

4.5.3   University of California

4.5.4   University of Delaware

5. Market Forecasts

5.1   Methodology

5.2   Networked Charging

5.3   Bidirectional Charging

5.4   Grid Services

5.5   Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List
7. Table of Contents
8. Table of Charts and Figures
9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • VGI Technology and Services Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • PEV Population by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Total EVSE Ports by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Networked EVSE Ports in Long-Term Parking Locations by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Bidirectional Charger Installations by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • VGI Capacity Potential by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • VGI Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • VGI Revenue by Activity, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Hourly Electricity Demand and Real-Time Energy Prices, PJM Interconnection: July 13, 2013-July 19, 2013
  • BMW iCharge Forward Program
  • California School Bus V2G Economic Modeling
  • VGI Market Supply Chain

List of Tables

  • Minimum Capacity Requirements of Major Grid Services Markets
  • Major North American ISO/RTO Grid Services Markets
  • ENSTO-E Synchronous Areas
  • Asia Pacific Markets, Regulatory Structure, and Estimated Grid Services Demand
  • VGI Projects for Individually Owned Vehicles
  • Fleet VGI Projects
  • Standards Affecting VGI
  • Key Hardware Suppliers
  • Key Software Providers
  • Aggregators in Early Markets
  • Key Stakeholders in Early Adopting Markets
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2016
  • Light Duty PEV Population by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Medium/Heavy Duty PEV Population by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Medium/Heavy Duty PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Installed EVSE Ports by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Networked EVSE Ports in Long-Term Destination Parking Locations by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Bidirectional Charging Ports by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Networked EVSE Unit Installations by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Bidirectional Unit Installations by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Grid Services Market Size by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Installed Charging Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Networked Long-Term Parking Charging Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Installed Fleet Parking Charging Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • VGI Addressable Potential (Adjusted for Availability) by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • V1G Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • V2G Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • VGI Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Networking Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Bidirectional EVSE Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • VGI Grid Services Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026

 

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プレスリリース

 


[日本語訳]

車両と電力網の統合(VGI)によるサービス収益は2024年までに2100万ドル近くへ到達

2015年3月9日

VGIシステムは送電網の信頼性を向上させ、電力料金を低下させる支えとなっていく

ナビガントリサーチ社の新刊レポートは送電網の信頼と安定性を支えるために使用されているVGI (Vehicle Grid Integration) 技術の市場機会を分析し、V2G対応のプラグイン電気自動車とVGIの容量および収益について地域毎の2024年までの世界市場予測を含めた情報を提供している。

現在のプラグイン電気自動車 (PEV) の発展によって電力需要の著しい像がしているが、管理が行われていなければ配電変圧器に不具合が発生したり、PEV所有者が帰宅後に車両の充電を行うことで電力需要がピーク時に急激に上昇してしまうような問題が起きてしまう。また同時に、PEVによって、理論上では若干低コストであり、環境にも優しいとされる再生可能エネルギーであっても、発電と電力需要のバランスを保ちながら獲得利用する際に負荷も高くなってしまう。

ナビガントリサーチ社の新刊レポートは、世界のVGIサービスによる年間収益は2015年の33万5000ドルから2024年までに2070万ドルへと成長していくであろうと伝えている。

「開発においては、米国で初めてボルトやリーフが販売される以前から、VGI技術は電力網のフレキシブルな対応力や回復力を向上させ、PEV所有者の電気料金負担が低減させることを目的となっていた。」とナビガントリサーチ社リサーチアナリストのScott Shepard氏は語る。「世界のPEV販売数は2014年に32万を超え、VGI技術の試験プログラム調査は急増しており、この市場は今後数年以内に急速な展開をみせる可能性も持っている。」

レポートによると、VGI市場は2つのカテゴリに分けられるという。1つはPEVが自らの電力消費率を変化させることで配電網への負荷を低減させるサービスを行う、車両と配電網間で行われる電力管理のための通信であり、V1Gと呼ばれるものである。もう1つは車両が配電網へ電力を戻していき車両と配電網間の双方向において電力放電を行うシステムであり、V2Gと言われる。現在のところV2G試験が注目を集める一方で、V1G試験については自動車メーカや市場での採用において特に大きな障壁は存在していない。

この調査レポートは、送電網の信頼性と安定性を支えるために使用されているVGI (Vehicle Grid Integration) 技術の市場機会の分析を行っている。VGIの成長に関連する様々な政策要因に加え、重要な促進要因と阻害要因について考察する。V2X対応のプラグインハイブリッド車(PEV)とVGIの容量、収益は地域毎に2024年までの世界市場を予測している。また主要V2G技術と事例についても調査し、主要市場参入者の基本情報も掲載している。

[プレスリリース原文]

Vehicle-Grid Integration Services Revenue is Expected to Reach Nearly $21 Million by 2024

March 9, 2015

VGI systems could help make the grid more reliable and electricity less expensive, report concludes

A new report from Navigant Research analyzes the market opportunity for vehicle-grid integration (VGI) technologies to be used to support grid reliability and stability, including global market forecasts for vehicle-to-grid-enabled PEVs and VGI capacity and revenue, segmented by region, through 2024.

Today’s plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) represent a significant increase in electricity demand that, if unmanaged, could cause problems with distribution-level transformers and could drastically increase demand during peak hours when PEV owners return from work and plug in their vehicles. At the same time, PEVs also represent an increase in load that could be used to capture renewable electricity generation and help balance generation with demand, theoretically making electricity marginally cheaper and cleaner. According to a new report from Navigant Research, worldwide revenue from VGI services is expected to grow from $335,000 annually in 2015 to $20.7 million by 2024.

“In development since before the Volt and LEAF were first sold in the Unites States, VGI technologies are designed to help make the grid more flexible and resilient, while also lowering electricity rates for owners of PEVs,” says Scott Shepard, research analyst with Navigant Research. “With global sales of PEVs surpassing 320,000 in 2014, pilot programs testing VGI technologies are proliferating, and this market has the opportunity to expand rapidly in the coming years.”

The VGI market can be separated into two categories, according to the report: PEVs can provide services to the grid by changing the rate at which they consume power, which is known as vehicle-to-grid communications for charge management, or V1G. Or they can provide power back to the grid, a bidirectional system known as vehicle-to-grid power transfer, orV2G. While V2G pilots have taken center stage, to date, V1G pilots have fewer barriers in regards to automaker adoption and accessible markets.

The report, “Vehicle Grid Integration Technologies,” analyzes the market opportunity for VGI technologies to be used to support grid reliability and stability. It considers various policy factors associated with the growth of VGI, as well as significant market drivers and barriers. Global market forecasts for V2X-enabled PEVs and VGI capacity and revenue, segmented by region, extend through 2024. The report also examines the major V2G technologies and case studies and profiles key market participants.

 

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