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世界の電気自動車市場予測 2018-2030年:軽量プラグインハイブリッド自動車と電池式電気自動車の車両販売数と自動車保有台数のマーケットデータ

Market Data: EV Market Forecasts

Global Forecasts for Light Duty Plug-In Hybrid and Battery EV Sales and Populations: 2018-2030

 

出版社 出版年月電子版価格 ページ数図表数
Navigant Research
ナビガントリサーチ
2019年2月US$3,950
1-5ユーザライセンス(Excel+PDF)
34 35

サマリー

米国調査会社ナビガントリサーチ(Navigant Research)の調査レポート「世界の電気自動車市場予測 2018-2030年:軽量プラグインハイブリッド自動車と電池式電気自動車の車両販売数と自動車保有台数のマーケットデータ」は、世界のプラグインハイブリッド電気自動車(PEV)の市場状況と規制政策を調査している。今後10年間のPEV市場を査定し、特に政府の介入や自動車のエコノミクス、インフラストラクチャ、自動化が新しい市場やその後のPEV保有台数の成長にどのように影響を与えるかに注目している。2030年までのバッテリー式電気自動車(BEV)やプラグインハイブリッド電気自動車(PHEV)といったPEVパワートレインタイプ毎の主要地域の販売数と保有台数を予測している。予測は、慎重、標準、積極的なシナリオ毎に区分し、BEV、PHEV、軽量自動車(LDV)全体の販売数の過去データも記載している。

Global 2018 plug-in EV (PEV) sales increased significantly from 2017, and growth in 2019 is likely to be strong again due to multiple deployments of long-range battery EVs (BEVs) in crossover classes. Tesla is also expected to reach full-scale production on the Model 3 and expand shipments of the vehicle to markets abroad. Long-term growth is propelled by improving vehicle technology economics, which is a function of battery innovations, government transportation energy policies, oil price projections, and movements to price carbon.

Though PEV market growth has been considerable, challenges remain. These include vehicle availability, consumer awareness, charging infrastructure, and threats from competing alternative fuels or fuel efficiency solutions. These challenges and threats are eroding with the natural cycle of technological development and concerted efforts by stakeholders (governments, automakers, and energy providers) to move the market toward lower emissions transportation, specifically electrification. Of the competing powertrain options, PEVs are close to becoming the leading conventional alternative and are best positioned to lead the future light duty vehicle (LDV) market.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global market conditions and regulatory policies for PEVs. The study examines the next decade of the PEV market with a specific focus on how government interventions, vehicle economics, infrastructure, and automation will affect new markets and subsequent growth of the PEV population. The study provides sales and population forecasts to 2030 of major regions by PEV powertrain type: BEV and plug-in hybrid EV (PHEV). Forecasts are provided by segment under conservative, base, and aggressive scenarios alongside historical data on BEV, PHEV, and overall LDV sales.

Key Questions Addressed
  • How will the growth rates of plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) and battery EVs (BEVs) vary by region and country through 2030?
  • How many light duty PHEVs and BEVs will be on the roads through 2030?
  • How are regulatory forces shaping the light duty plug-in EV (PEV) markets?
  • What are the implications of likely changes to regulatory policies?
  • Which key factors are driving growth in the light duty PEV market?
  • How will light duty PHEV and BEV sales be affected by other alternative fuel technologies?
  • Which companies are leading the market in PHEV and BEV sales?
Who Needs This Report
  • Automotive OEMs
  • Plug-in EV (PEV) component manufacturers and suppliers
  • PEV charging equipment manufacturers
  • Energy service companies (ESCOs)
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Industry associations
  • Investor community

 



目次

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Introduction

1.2   Scope

1.3   Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues

2.1   Current Events

2.2   Market Drivers

2.2.1   Battery Innovations

2.2.2   Government Policies

2.2.3   Energy Economics

2.3   Challenges

2.3.1   Availability

2.3.2   Awareness

2.3.3   Charging Infrastructure

3. Market Forecasts

3.1   Scope

3.2   Methodology

3.3   LDV Market

3.4   PHEVs

3.5   BEVs

3.6   Base Scenario

3.7   Conservative and Aggressive Scenarios

3.8   Conclusions and Recommendations

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List

5. Table of Contents

6. Table of Charts and Figures

7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

 

List of Charts and Figures

  • Historic and Forecast PEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2010-2018
  • LD BEV Battery Pack Price Actual and Projection Range: 2010-2030
  • LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2010-2018
  • PHEV Sales by Automaker, World Markets: 2010-2018
  • BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2010-2018
  • BEV Sales by Automaker, World Markets: 2010-2018
  • PEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • PEV Sales by Powertrain, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • Gap Between Scenario Forecasts, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • Geographic Dimensions
  • Model Methodology

 

List of Tables

  • Major Model Assumptions
  • LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • LDV Population by Region, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • PEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • BEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • PHEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • PEV Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • BEV Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • PHEV Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • PEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • BEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • PHEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • PEV Population by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • BEV Population by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • PHEV Population by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • PEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • BEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • PHEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • PEV Population by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • BEV Population by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • PHEV Population by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • Policies Benefiting PEVs in Major Markets

 

 

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