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世界の電気自動車市場予測 2016-2025年:軽量ハイブリッド、プラグインハイブリッド自動車、電池式電気自動車の車両販売数と自動車保有台数のマーケットデータ

Market Data: Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts

Global Forecasts for Light Duty Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid, and Battery EV Sales and Vehicles in Use: 2016-2025

 

出版社 出版年月電子媒体価格ページ数図表数
Navigant Research
ナビガントリサーチ
2016年12月US$3,600
1-5ユーザライセンス(PDF)
45 65

サマリー

米国調査会社ナビガントリサーチ(Navigant Research)の調査レポート「世界の電気自動車市場予測 2016-2025年:軽量ハイブリッド、プラグインハイブリッド自動車、電池式電気自動車の車両販売数と自動車保有台数のマーケットデータ」は、軽量自動車全体の市場と、軽量ハイブリッド車、プラグインハイブリッド車、電池式電気自動車の市場全般の市場予測、市場規模、市場シェアを分析している。世界の軽量自動車の年間販売数と保有台数をバッテリ価格、原油価格、LDVフリートでの自動モビリティシステム(AMS)普及などのシナリオ予測によって変動する。慎重なシナリオや積極的なシナリオ、その他の24のシナリオの組合せ条件の平均結果によって予測を行っている。それぞれの主要なシナリオ予測条件におけるHEV、PHEV、BEVと同様に、コアモデルシナリオ予測も提供している。

The market for light duty vehicles (LDVs) is changing rapidly due to innovations in autonomous and connected vehicle systems and advances in battery energy density and cost. Autonomous and connected vehicle technologies will likely encourage greater use of shared vehicles and increased use of LDVs. Meanwhile, the transition from liquid fuels to electricity is expected to transform the retail fuel sector as well as utility roles in transportation energy supply. These technologies are in their infancy and will take decades to mature. Yet, as they do, LDV travel and the pool of industries that support it will change dramatically.

Declining costs have positioned the battery EV (BEV) for market success in the years to come. Long-range BEVs are now competitive in price among economy brands after subsidies. This milestone marks a threshold likely to move BEVs from a niche vehicle option to the next vehicle option for many consumers. Additionally, the over 400,000 preorders of Tesla’s Model 3 indicate that the affordable 200-plus mile BEV will have a big impact on the vehicle market. Tesla’s massive preorder numbers may indicate initial reactions to the upcoming long-range BEVs will beat industry expectations. Alternatively, these numbers could be a response to the company’s hype machine—and they may overstate the long-range BEV opportunity.

This Navigant Research report provides forecasts, market sizing, and market share analysis for the overall LDV market and light duty hybrid EVs (HEVs), plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs), and BEVs. Global forecasts for annual LDV sales and vehicles in use are driven by scenario forecasts on battery prices, oil prices, and autonomous mobility system (AMS) penetration within the LDV fleet. Forecasts are provided by segment under conservative scenario conditions, aggressive scenario conditions, and the average result of 24 scenario combination conditions. Core model scenario forecasts are also provided alongside HEV, PHEV, and BEV sensitivities to each major scenario forecast condition.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How will the growth rates of light duty hybrid EVs (HEVs), plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs), and battery EVs (BEVs) vary by region and country through 2025?
  • How many light duty HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs will be on the roads through 2025?
  • What are the key factors driving growth in the light duty EV market?
  • How will light duty HEV, PHEV, and BEV sales be affected by other alternative fuel technologies?
  • How do autonomous mobility systems (AMSs) affect the market opportunities for EVs?
  • What are the current government policies regarding EVs and how do they affect sales?
  • How will fuel prices and advances in lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries affect light duty EV sales?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive OEMs
  • EV component manufacturers and suppliers
  • EV charging equipment manufacturers
  • Energy service companies (ESCOs)
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Industry associations
  • Investor community


目次

1. Executive Summary

1.1    Introduction

1.2    Report Scope and Definitions

1.3    Market Forecasts

2. Methodology

2.1    Introduction

2.2    Model Overview

2.3    Major Parameters

2.3.1   Technology Competition Model

2.3.2   Purchase Costs

2.3.2.1   Powertrain Costs

2.3.2.2    Taxes and Subsidies

2.3.3   Operating Costs

2.3.4   Total Cost of Ownership

2.3.5   Consumer Sacrifice Penalty

2.3.6   Market and Segment Share

2.3.7   AMS Penetration

2.4    Forecast Scenarios

3. Market Forecasts

3.1    LDVs

3.2    HEVs

3.3    PHEVs

3.4    BEVs

3.5    Conclusions and Recommendations

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List
5. Table of Contents
6. Table of Charts and Figures
7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Average Retail Fuel Prices, United States: April 2000-September 2016
  • Effects of Automation on Cost per Mile of Transportation Network Company Service
  • Historic EV Sales and Forecasts by Scenario, World Markets: 2012-2025
  • Passenger Car BEV Purchase Price Premium over ICEV, United States: 2016
  • BEV Battery Pack Price by Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PEV Market Share, Norway and Netherlands: 2012-2015
  • BEV Purchase Premium by Major Market (Base Battery Price): 2016-2025
  • Oil Price by Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • Estimated Maintenance Costs by Powertrain and Type, World Markets: 2016
  • Estimated TCO by Major Market (Base Battery Price, Conservative Oil Price): 2016-2025
  • BEV TCO with Consumer Sacrifice Penalty by Major Market (Base Battery Price Scenario, Conservative Oil Price Scenario): 2016-2025
  • AMS Penetration by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2025
  • LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • LDVs in Use by Region, No AMS Penetration, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • High AMS Penetration Impact on LDVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2025
  • LD HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • LD HEV Market Share by OEM, World Markets: 2016
  • HEV Sales Sensitivity by Parameter, World Markets: 2025
  • LD HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • LD PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • LD PHEV Market Share by OEM, World Markets: 2016
  • PHEV Sales Sensitivity by Parameter, World Markets: 2025
  • LD PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • LD BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • LD BEV Market Share by OEM, World Markets: 2016
  • BEV Sales Sensitivity by Parameter, World Markets: 2025
  • LD BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2016-2025

List of Tables

  • Estimated LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • Estimated PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • Estimated BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • Estimated PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • Estimated HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • Battery Price Forecast by Powertrain and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • Oil Price Forecast by Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • Automated Mobility System Penetration as a Percentage of Vehicles in Use by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • LDV Sales Sensitivities by Parameter and Powertrain, World Markets: 2025
  • LDV Sales by Region, Scenario Average, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PEV Sales by Region, Scenario Average, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • BEV Sales by Region, Scenario Average, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PHEV Sales by Region, Scenario Average, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • HEV Sales by Region, Scenario Average, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • LDVs in Use by Region, Scenario Average, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PEVs in Use by Region, Scenario Average, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • BEVs in Use by Region, Scenario Average, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PHEVs in Use by Region, Scenario Average, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • HEVs in Use by Region, Scenario Average, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • BEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PHEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • HEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • LDVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • BEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PHEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • HEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • BEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PHEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • HEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • LDVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • BEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PHEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • HEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025

 

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プレスリリース

[プレスリリース原文]

More than 37 Million Plug-in Electric Vehicles are Expected to be in Use in 2025

Long-range battery electric vehicles appear positioned for success as prices become competitive with economy brands after subsidies

January 11, 2017

A new report from Navigant Research provides forecasts, market sizing, and market share analysis for the overall light duty vehicle (LDV) market and for light duty hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs), and battery EVs (BEVs).

The market for LDVs is poised for change due to advances in battery energy density and cost, as well as coming innovations in connected and autonomous vehicle systems. Around 2025, fundamental technology and industry trends are expected to enable BEVs to be cost competitive against conventional vehicles without subsides, underlining the likelihood that LDVs will eventually be electric rather than any other alternative.  According to a new report from Navigant Research, by 2025, more than 68 million light duty HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs are expected to be in use globally, with over half being plug-in vehicles.

“Battery cost reductions are having dramatic impacts on BEV cost and range, portending significant market growth in the years ahead,” says Scott Shepard, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “Further battery innovations alongside vehicle automation promise to significantly disrupt the nature and business of transportation, although this process will take decades to come to full fruition.”

According to the report, long-range BEVs appear positioned for success as prices become competitive with economy brands after subsidies. This marks a milestone that could move BEVs from niche to mainstream, especially as the over 400,000 preorders of Tesla’s Model 3 indicate that the affordable 200-plus mile BEV could have a big impact on the vehicle market.

The report, Market Data: Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts, provides forecasts, market sizing, and market share analysis for the overall LDV market and light duty hybrid EVs (HEVs), plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs), and BEVs. Global forecasts for annual LDV sales and vehicles in use are driven by scenario forecasts on battery prices, oil prices, and autonomous mobility system (AMS) penetration within the LDV fleet. Forecasts are provided by segment under conservative scenario conditions, aggressive scenario conditions, and the average result of 24 scenario combination conditions. Core model scenario forecasts are also provided alongside HEV, PHEV, and BEV sensitivities to each major scenario forecast condition.


 

Light Duty Plug-in Electric Vehicles Are Expected to Make Up Half of the Global Electric Vehicle Market by 2024

Major automakers are developing plug-in electric vehicles with cost points under $40,000 and increasing drive ranges

 

August 23, 2016

A recent report from Navigant Research details the global market for light duty vehicles, including light duty hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles (HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs), or plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), segmented by scenario, region, country, drivetrain, and automaker, through 2024.

As of 2015, light duty PEVs accounted for about 19 percent of the global light duty EV market. Both the overall market and the PEV market share are expected to grow significantly in response to carbon emission reduction initiatives, fuel economy standards, and the increasing variety and quantity of PEV offerings. According to a recent report fromNavigant Research, light duty PEVs are expected to make up half of the global EV market by 2024.

“In North America, Europe, and developed Asia Pacific markets, PEVs have become well-established thanks to fuel efficiency regulations and purchase incentives,” says Scott Shepard, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “These factors have helped the market to grow from 30,000 vehicles in 2011 to almost 500,000 in 2015.”

According to the report, now that the market has a strong foundation, automakers are developing more technologies and products likely to overcome obstacles to market acceptance such as cost, charging time, and all-electric range. General Motors, Nissan, and Tesla are all working on PEVs with cost points below $40,000 and ranges of 150-250 miles.

The report, Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts, provides forecasts, market sizing, and market share analysis for the overall light duty vehicle (LDV) market and light duty HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs. Global forecasts for annual LDV sales and vehicles in use, segmented by scenario (conservative, base, and aggressive), region, country, drivetrain, and automaker, extend through 2024. Also provided are forecasts by automaker and vehicle class (luxury vs. economy), along with discussion of the underlying forecast assumptions such as lithium ion (Li-ion) energy density, Li-ion battery prices, and retail fuel prices.

 

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