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北米の電気自動車市場:バッテリーとプラグインハイブリッド電気自動車の販売数と保有台数

Market Data: EV Geographic Forecasts

Battery and Plug-In Hybrid EV Sales and Populations in North America

 

出版社 出版年月電子媒体価格ページ数図表数
Navigant Research
ナビガントリサーチ
2017年8月US$3,800
1-5ユーザライセンス(PDF+Excel)
40 54

サマリー

米国調査会社ナビガントリサーチ(Navigant Research)の調査レポート「北米の電気自動車市場:バッテリーとプラグインハイブリッド電気自動車の販売数と保有台数」は、ナビガントリサーチ独自の地域毎の電気自動車の年間予測調査の最新版である。消費者意識の高まりやPEVの機能向上、中古PEV市場の発展などによるプラグイン電気自動車の普及を分析している。自動車の自動化による影響を査定し、そのような影響をモデルに実装するナビガントリサーチの手法も記載している。米国とカナダのPEVの販売数と保有台数を地域毎に詳述し、州毎やコアベース統計地域(CBSA)と国勢調査集計エリア(CA)に区分して提供している。予測は保守的、標準、積極的の3つのシナリオで提供している。

目次(抜粋)

  • 北米の自動車市場
  • 調査手法
  • 米国とカナダの市場予測

The development and diffusion of the plug-in EV (PEV) population has implications for utilities, grid operators, and companies seeking to supply the energy needs of this quickly growing consumer base. In North America, the PEV market has grown by a factor of 10 since 2011, and 2017 is headed toward another record-breaking year. The battery EV (BEV) market is a primary factor in this growth, due to expanding availability of the Chevrolet Bolt and the deployment of the Tesla Model 3. Plug-in hybrid EV (PHEV) sales are likely to grow as well, although at a lower rate.

PEV sales are expected to grow most quickly in states and provinces with desirable PEV incentives, low vehicle capability and range requirements, and positive demographic characteristics related to PEVs. To date, PEV populations have initially clustered in urban areas where census data indicates consumers have high levels of educational attainment and wealth. This correlation is likely to weaken as the used PEV market develops and cheaper PEV offerings enable greater adoption among a wider range of vehicle owners. Overall, 2017 PEV sales in North America are on track to be 50% greater than 2016. Beyond 2017, sales are likely to continue to grow, but the rate of growth will slow.

This Navigant Research report provides an update to our annual Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecast. The study assesses PEV population diffusion as a function of growing consumer awareness, increased PEV capability, the development of the used PEV market, and declining costs. Additional analysis is provided on the likely impacts of vehicle automation and Navigant Research’s method for implementing these impacts within model results. Detailed geographic breakdowns of PEV sales and populations for the United States and Canada are provided by state and core based statistical area (CBSA) and province and census agglomeration area (CA). Forecasts are provided under three scenario conditions (conservative, base, and aggressive).

Key Questions Addressed:
  • Which areas in North America are most likely to have the strongest penetration of plug-in EVs (PEVs)?
  • What is the projected size of the North American PEV market over the next 10 years?
  • What are the impacts of state and regional market regulations and interventions on the market?
  • How do major forecast variables influence PEV market results?
  • What are the emerging implications of vehicle automation?
  • What are the emerging implications of increased PEV diffusion?
  • How will markets respond to increased PEV capability?
Who needs this report?
  • Automobile OEM marketing managers
  • Vehicle aftermarket and service management
  • Tier One supplier marketing managers
  • EV charging equipment marketing managers
  • Electric utility management
  • State, province, and city urban planners
  • EV advocacy groups
  • Investor community


目次

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Introduction

1.2   Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues

2.1   Introduction

2.1.1   Geographic Scope

2.2   North American Light Vehicle Market Characteristics

2.2.1   Powertrain Preferences

2.2.2   Regulatory Environment

2.2.2.1   National Level

2.2.2.2   Regional Level

2.2.2.3   State, Province, and Local Levels

2.2.3   Technology Availability and Innovation

3. Methodology

3.1   Overview

3.2   LDV Transportation Demand

3.3   Technology Competition Model

3.3.1   Purchase Cost

3.3.2   Operating Costs

3.3.3   Consumer Sacrifice Penalty

3.3.4   Relative Competitive Value

3.3.5   Vehicle Population

3.3.6   State/Province Disaggregation

3.4   Sub-State Disaggregation

3.4.1   Educational Attainment

3.4.2   Housing

3.4.3   Consumer Awareness

4. Market Forecasts

4.1   Introduction

4.2   United States

4.2.1   States

4.2.2   PEV Population

4.2.3   CBSAs

4.3   Canada

4.3.1   Provinces

4.3.2   CAs

4.4   Conclusions and Recommendations

5. Acronym and Abbreviation List
6. Table of Contents
7. Table of Charts and Figures
8. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • State-/Province-Level Disaggregation Model
  • Local-Level Disaggregation Model
  • Example Diffusion Curves Based on Income and Education Characteristics
  • PEV Sales by Major Market, Base Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • Sales Impact of Automation Penetration by Powertrain, North America: 2026
  • Light Truck Share of LDV Fleet, Select World Markets: 2016
  • Historic and Projected Sales of PEVs, Base Scenario, North America: 2012-2026
  • Sales Impact per $10 Decline in Battery Price by Powertrain, North America: 2026
  • Fueling Costs of BEVs and PHEVs against ICEVs by Select States and Provinces, North America: 2017
  • Vehicle Sales Impact per $1 Rise in Oil Prices by Powertrain, North America: 2026
  • PEV Sales by Scenario, United States: 2016-2025
  • PEV Sales Market Share, Base Scenario, Top 10 North American States or Provinces: 2017 and 2026
  • Top 15 US PEV Populations by Metropolitan Area and Powertrain, Base Scenario, United States: 2026
  • PEV Sales by Scenario, Canada: 2017-2026
  • PEV Sales Share by Province, Base Scenario, Canada: 2017 and 2026
  • Top 10 Canadian PEV Populations, Base Scenario, Canada: 2026
  • PEV Sales in Top 10 Metropolitan Areas, Base Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • PEV Population in Top 10 Metropolitan Areas, Base Scenario, North America: 2017-2026

List of Tables

  • Scenario Conditions, World Markets: 2026
  • Geographic Forecasting Areas
  • Geographic Areas for Forecasts
  • Li-Ion Battery Pack Prices by Powertrain and Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Aggressive Oil Price Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Retail Fuel Prices and Passenger Car Cost per Mile By State or Province, North America: 2017
  • LD Vehicle Sales by State or Province, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD Vehicle Population by State or Province, North America: 2017-2026
  • PEV Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, United States: 2017-2026
  • PEV Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, Canada: 2017-2026
  • LD BEV Sales by State or Province and Powertrain, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD BEV Sales by State or Province and Powertrain, Base Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD BEV Sales by State or Province and Powertrain, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD PHEV Sales by State or Province and Powertrain, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD PHEV Sales by State or Province and Powertrain, Base Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD PHEV Sales by State or Province and Powertrain, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • PEV Population by Powertrain and Scenario, United States: 2017-2026
  • PEV Population by Powertrain and Scenario, Canada: 2017-2026
  • LD BEV Population by State or Province and Powertrain, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD BEV Population by State or Province and Powertrain, Base Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD BEV Population by State or Province and Powertrain, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD PHEV Population by State or Province and Powertrain, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD PHEV Population by State or Province and Powertrain, Base Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD PHEV Population by State or Province and Powertrain, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD BEV Sales Ranked by 100 Largest Metro Area PEV Sales in 2026 and Powertrain, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD BEV Sales Ranked by 100 Largest Metro Area PEV Sales in 2026 and Powertrain, Base Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD BEV Sales Ranked by 100 Largest Metro Area PEV Sales in 2026 and Powertrain, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD PHEV Sales Ranked by 100 Largest Metro Area PEV Sales in 2026 and Powertrain, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD PHEV Sales Ranked by 100 Largest Metro Area PEV Sales in 2026 and Powertrain, Base Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD PHEV Sales Ranked by 100 Largest Metro Area PEV Sales in 2026 and Powertrain, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD BEV Population Ranked by 100 Largest Metro Area and Powertrain, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD BEV Population Ranked by 100 Largest Metro Area and Powertrain, Base Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD BEV Populations Ranked by 100 Largest Metro Area and Powertrain, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD PHEV Populations Ranked by 100 Largest Metro Area and Powertrain, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD PHEV Populations Ranked by 100 Largest Metro Area and Powertrain, Base Scenario, North America: 2017-2026
  • LD PHEV Populations Ranked by 100 Largest Metro Area and Powertrain, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2017-2026

 

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