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世界の分散型発電の展開予測:太陽光発電、小型風力発電、燃料電池、天然ガス発電装置、ディーゼル発電装置の国および技術別容量と収益 2014-2023年

Global Distributed Generation Deployment Forecast

Solar PV, Small Wind, Fuel Cell, Natural Gas Generator Set, and Diesel Generator Set Capacity and Revenue by Country and Technology: 2014-2023

 

出版社 出版年月電子媒体価格ページ数図表数
Navigant Research
ナビガントリサーチ
2014年8月US$6,500
1-5ユーザライセンス
55 49

サマリー

この調査レポートは、太陽光発電(1 MW未満)、小型風力タービン(500kW未満)、定置型燃料電池、天然ガス発電装置 (6 MW未満)、ディーゼル発電装置 (6 MW未満)などの分散型発電技術の世界市場を分析しています。設置容量、収益、価格予測は54ヶ国、2014年から2023年までの期間を対象に行われています。地域別や国別市場分析、主要市場の顧客セグメントや電力クラスごとの設置容量の定量分析、仮説モデルの概要なども掲載しています。

The rise of distributed generation (DG) is one of the most important trends in the energy industry today. Utility business models are threatened by the dramatic growth in the deployment of technologies that generate electricity onsite or at the distribution grid level, reducing the need to purchase electrons from centrally located utility-scale generation facilities.

To date, DG has been more disruptive in Western Europe than in any other region. Utilities are losing hundreds of billions of dollars in market capitalization as DG reaches higher levels of penetration in leading countries such as Germany, the United Kingdom, and Italy. The prospect of similar losses by utilities in the United States is prompting a battle among utilities, the DG industry, and regulators seeking to strike a balance that allows for DG growth while allowing utilities to benefit. Such a balance would enable DG customers and utilities to take advantage of new revenue opportunities enabled by DG while fairly compensating utilities for the ability to use the existing electrical grid as a backup service for onsite power at higher concentrations in the future. According to Navigant Research, annual installed capacity in the global DG market is expected to grow from 87.3 GW in 2014 to 165.5 GW in 2023.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global market for DG technologies, including solar PV (<1 MW), small wind turbines (SWTs; <500 kW), stationary fuel cells, natural gas generator sets (gensets; <6 MW), and diesel gensets (<6 MW).  Installed capacity, revenue, and pricing forecasts are included for the time period of 2014-2023 for 54 countries.  The report also includes region- and country-specific market analyses, qualitative analysis of installed capacity by customer segment and/or power class for leading markets, and an overview of modeling assumptions.

Key Questions Addressed:

  • What countries are the strongest markets for distributed generation (DG) deployment?
  • What is the DG market size by technology and country?
  • What are the key drivers and barriers to the deployment of DG in leading markets?
  • What are the costs of DG technologies now and in the future?
  • What are the most important technology, policy, and capital trends affecting DG?
  • What is the projected market size for distributed solar PV, small wind turbines (SWTs), fuel cells, natural gas generator sets (gensets), and diesel gensets by country?
  • What is the overall global outlook for DG?

Who needs this report?

  • Utilities
  • Distributed generation (DG) OEMs and suppliers
  • Solar PV companies
  • Small wind turbine (SWT) companies
  • Diesel generator set (genset) companies
  • Natural gas genset companies
  • Government agencies and regulators
  • Investor community


目次

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Introduction

1.2  Technology Scope

1.3  Global Forecasts

2. Data Assumptions 

2.1  Introduction

2.2  Methodology

2.2.1   Annual Installed Capacity

2.2.2   Revenue

2.3  Geographic Scope

2.4  Technology Scope

2.4.1   Solar PV Systems

2.4.2   Small Wind Systems

2.4.3   Stationary Fuel Cells

2.4.4   Gensets

2.5  Technology Pricing Assumptions

2.5.1   Solar PV Pricing Assumptions

2.5.2   Small Wind Pricing Assumptions

2.5.3   Stationary Fuel Cell Pricing Assumptions

2.5.4   Genset Pricing Assumptions

2.6  DG Market Drivers

2.6.1   Renewable Energy Targets and DG Carve-Outs

   2.6.1.1  North America

   2.6.1.2  Europe

   2.6.1.3  Asia Pacific

2.6.2   FITs and Net Metering

   2.6.2.1  North America

   2.6.2.2  Europe

   2.6.2.3  Asia Pacific

2.6.3   Increase in Catastrophic Power Outages

2.6.4   Rural Electrification

2.6.5   The Evolving Utility Business Model

3. Market Forecasts 

3.1  DG Forecasts

3.1.1   DG Forecasts by Technology

   3.1.1.1  Distributed Solar PV Forecast

   3.1.1.2  Small Wind Forecasts

   3.1.1.3  Fuel Cell Forecasts

   3.1.1.4  NG Genset Forecasts

   3.1.1.5  Diesel Genset Forecasts

3.1.2   DG Forecasts by Geography

   3.1.2.1  North America

      3.1.2.1.1.  United States

   3.1.2.2  Western Europe

      3.1.2.2.1.  France

      3.1.2.2.2.  Germany

      3.1.2.2.3.  Italy

      3.1.2.2.4.  United Kingdom

   3.1.2.3  Eastern Europe

   3.1.2.4  Asia Pacific

      3.1.2.4.1.  Australia

      3.1.2.4.2.  China

      3.1.2.4.3.  India

      3.1.2.4.4   Japan

   3.1.2.5  Latin America

   3.1.2.6  Middle East

   3.1.2.7  Africa

3.2  Conclusions

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List
5. Table of Contents
6. Table of Charts and Figures
7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Centralized Power Plant and Distributed Generation Capacity Additions and Revenue, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Distributed Solar PV Installed Cost by Region, World Markets: 2009-2023
  • Small Wind System Installed Cost by System Size, United Kingdom: 2013
  • Annual GDP, New Electric Capacity Additions, and New Distributed Generation Capacity Additions, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity and Revenue by Technology, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Small Wind Installed Capacity and Revenue, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Stationary Fuel Cell Installed Capacity and Revenue, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Natural Gas Genset Installed Capacity and Revenue, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Diesel Genset Installed Capacity and Revenue, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, North America: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Western Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Eastern Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Latin America: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Middle East: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Africa: 2014-2023
  • RPSs with Solar/DG Provisions, United States: March 2013
  • Forward Spot Price for Baseload Electricity, Europe: 2010-2013
  • California Independent System Operator Net Load: 2012-2020
  • FIT Rate Schedule, United Kingdom: 2012-2016

List of Tables

  • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity by Technology, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity by Technology and Country, North America: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity by Technology and Country, Western Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity by Technology and Country, Eastern Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity by Technology and Country, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity by Technology and Country, Latin America: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity by Technology and Country, Middle East: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity by Technology and Country, Africa: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Revenue by Technology, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Revenue by Technology and Country, North America: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Revenue by Technology and Country, Western Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Revenue by Technology and Country, Eastern Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Revenue by Technology and Country, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Revenue by Technology and Country, Latin America: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Revenue by Technology and Country, Middle East: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Generation Revenue by Technology and Country, Africa: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Solar PV Generation Capacity by Country and Customer Segment, Europe: 2013
  • Cumulative Distributed Solar PV Generation Capacity by Country and Customer Segment, Europe: 2013
  • Distributed Solar PV Installed Cost by System Size and Region, World Markets: 2009-2023
  • Small Wind System Average Installed Cost, World Markets: 2009-2023
  • Fuel Cell Average Installed Cost, World Markets: 2009-2023
  • Natural Gas Genset Average Installed Cost, World Markets: 2009-2023
  • Diesel Genset Average Installed Cost, World Markets: 2009-2023
  • DG Technology Comparison
  • Estimated Losses per Hour of Grid Failure

 

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プレスリリース

[プレスリリース原文]

Revenue from Distributed Generation is On Pace to Surpass $182 Billion by 2023

September 4, 2014

Utilities, regulators, and DG suppliers are struggling to find a balanced approach, report concludes

In recent years, billions of dollars of public and private investment in distributed generation (DG) technologies have yielded strong results in both cost reduction and technical capabilities.  Public and private investment in DG technologies has grown significantly as new business models, such as third-party owned systems (specifically the solar lease and solar power purchase agreement), have been deployed.  According to a new report from Navigant Research, worldwide revenue from DG is expected to grow from $97 billion in 2014 to more than $182 billion by 2023.

“One of the most important issues for the energy industry is striking a balance between DG growth and fairly compensating utilities for the ability to effectively use the existing electrical grid as a backup service for onsite power at higher concentrations in the future,” says Dexter Gauntlett, senior research analyst with Navigant Research.  “Utilities that pro-actively engage with their customers to accommodate DG – and even participate in the market themselves – limit their risk and stand to benefit the most.”

To date, DG has been more disruptive in Western Europe than in any other region, according to the report.  Utilities are losing hundreds of billions of dollars in market capitalization as DG reaches higher levels of penetration in leading countries such as Germany, the United Kingdom, and Italy.  The prospect of similar losses by utilities in the United States is prompting a struggle among utilities, the DG industry, and regulators over the future of DG models.

The report, “Global Distributed Generation Deployment Forecast,” analyzes the global market for DG technologies, including solar PV (<1 MW), small wind turbines (<500 kW), stationary fuel cells, natural gas generator sets (<6 MW), and diesel generator sets (<6 MW).  Installed capacity, revenue, and pricing forecasts are included for the time period of 2014-2023 for 54 countries.  The report also includes region- and country-specific market analyses, qualitative analysis of installed capacity by customer segment and/or power class for leading markets, and an overview of modeling assumptions.

 

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