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世界のシェールガス調査 2011年 (第1版)

Shale Gas Report Ed 1 2011

 

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NRG Expert
NRGエキスパート
2011年9月GBP650200

目次

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この調査レポートは、世界のシェールガス市場を調査し、主要国の市場動向や技術などについて詳細に解説・分析しています。

Introduction

This new report looks at the global Shale Gas market, the changes, developments and forecasts for the future. Shale gas has been a ‘game changer’ in the US changing the country from being reliant on imports for the foreseeable future to being able to meet demand from domestic production. A large reduction in the cost to produce natural gas from shale has made shale gas economically viable. So presently US natural gas prices are around USD 4 per mmBtu. Whether shale gas can maintain its meteoric rise is uncertain. Low gas prices have made the economics of shale gas projects less attractive and are expected to remain bearish in the short-term. Furthermore, there is concern over the environmental impact of fracturing water and the amount of water used in the fracturing process. New environmental legislation on hydraulic fracturing, if passed, could drive the costs of hydraulic fracturing higher, possibly leaving only the big players in the shale game.

Research and Analysis highlights

Despite the uncertainty, interest in shale gas has not waned. High oil prices are starting to make compressed natural gas vehicles more of a viable option. Furthermore, natural gas produces less carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on burning than coal. Fuel switching from coal to natural gas at power stations is one option for country’s to meet Kyoto targets for cutting CO2 emissions.

Key reasons to purchase this research

  • Make informed business decisions through a clear global understanding of this market
  • Design business strategies by understanding the trends, developments and predictions.
Table of Contents 詳細資料は、お問い合わせフォームから請求してください。

1. Executive Summary ................................................................. 9

2. World Oil and Gas Reserves ............................................................................. 10

Definitions of oil and gas reserves .................................................................... 10
Deterministic and probabilistic estimation of reserves ...................................... 10
Proved reserves ..................................................................... 10
Proved, proved undeveloped reserves.............................................................. 11
Unproved Reserves ................................................................ 11
Unproved Probable Reserves ........................................................................... 11
Unproved Possible Reserves ............................................................................ 12
Comparison of using different methods of calculating reserves .................................................. 12
Calculations to determine reserve values ......................................................... 14
The volumetric method ...................................................................................... 14
Decline curve analysis ....................................................................................... 14
External factors affecting reserves .................................................................... 14

3. Natural gas demand and consumption ............................................................. 19

4. Unconventional gas ................................................................ 22

What is a source rock? ...................................................................................... 23

5. Technology ............................................................................ 26

Horizontal drilling .................................................................... 26
Hydraulic fracturing or ‘fracking’ ........................................................................ 26
Other ‘unconventionals’ ..................................................................................... 29
Costs ..................................................................................... 29

6. Environmental Impacts ...................................................................................... 30

Policy/Legislation in the USA ............................................................................ 31
Policy/Legislation in Canada ............................................................................. 32
Carbon emissions ................................................................... 32

7. Gas advantages ..................................................................... 34
8. Gas prices ............................................................................. 36
9. Other products ........................................................................ 39
10. Country Profiles .................................................................. 40

11. North America .................................................................... 42

Canada .................................................................................. 44
United States ......................................................................... 54

12. Europe and Eurasia ...................................................................................... 86

Source; South Stream ..................................................................... 94
Austria ................................................................................... 94
Bulgaria ................................................................................. 95
Denmark ................................................................................ 97
France ................................................................................... 99
Germany .............................................................................. 101
Hungary ............................................................................... 104
Netherlands ......................................................................... 106
Poland ................................................................................. 108
Romania .............................................................................. 113
Russia .................................................................................. 115
Spain ................................................................................... 117
Sweden ................................................................................ 119
Switzerland .......................................................................... 121
Ukraine ................................................................................ 122
United Kingdom .................................................................... 125

13. South & Central America............................................................................. 130

Argentina ............................................................................. 130
Peru ..................................................................................... 133

14. Asia Pacific ....................................................................... 136

Australia ............................................................................... 136
China ................................................................................... 142
India ..................................................................................... 150
Indonesia ............................................................................. 153
Japan ................................................................................... 156
Korea, South ......................................................................... 159

15. Africa ............................................................................... 163

Algeria ................................................................................. 163
Morocco ............................................................................... 165
South Africa ......................................................................... 165

16. The Main Players ........................................................................................ 169

Early pioneers in North America...................................................................... 169
Big Oil & Gas ........................................................................ 188

Tables

Table 4 1: Frontier resources and unconventional oil and gas
Table 11 1: US Resource estimates by type from different sources, tcf and bcm
Table 11 2: Timeline of US shale gas developments
Table 12 1: iGas’s unconventional gas projects
Table 14 1: Timeline of shale gas exploration
Table 14 2: International co-operation involving Chinese companies in the development of shale gas projects

Figures

Figure 2 1: Proven gas reserves, tcm, 1980 to 2009
Figure 2 2: Global R/P for natural gas, years, 1980 to 1999
Figure 2 3: Proven gas reserves by region, tcm, 1980 to 2009
Figure 2 4: R/P for natural gas by region, years, 1980 to 1999
Figure 3 1: Top twenty countries by gas reserves, tcm, 2009
Figure 3 2: Top twenty countries by gas production, bcm, 1980 to 2009
Figure 3 3: Natural gas production in the US and Russia, bcm, 1970 to 2009
Figure 4 1: Geology of natural gas resources
Figure 4 2: Unconventional natural gas resources, bcm
Figure 5 1: Number of rigs by drilling method in the US, Jan 2006 to Mar 2011
Figure 0 1: Haynesville shale type curve, mcf per day, 0 to 15 days
Figure 0 2: Pad drilling and conventional vertical well drilling
Figure 0 3: Production of coal bed methane (CBM)
Figure 7 1: Oil, coal, natural gas and propane daily spot prices
Figure 7 2: Average cost for plants entering service by 2016, USD per kWh
Figure 8 1: Historical natural gas, LNG and crude oil prices, USD per mmBtu, 1984 to 2009
Figure 8 2: Historical and projected North American natural gas prices, USD per mmBtu 1987 to 2025
Figure 8 3: Unconventional and conventional gas production costs, USD per GJ, 2008
Figure 9 1: Value chain from feedstock to chemical building blocks
Figure 10 1: Projected natural gas consumption and production, Mtoe, 1990 to 2030
Figure 11 1: TransCanada natural gas pipelines
Figure 11 2: Projected natural gas consumption and production, Mtoe, 1990 to 2030
Figure 11 3: Production and consumption of natural gas in Canada, bcm, 1970 to 2009
Figure 11 4: Natural gas reserves in Canada, tcm, 1980 to 2009
Figure 11 5: Unconventional resource potential in Canada
Figure 11 6: Potential shale gas plays in Canada and estimated resources
Figure 11 7: West Canada Shale Basin production outlook
Figure 11 8: Contracted and direct receipt contracts for transportation of gas from Canadian shale gas
Figure 11 9: Production and consumption of natural gas in the USA, bcm, 1970 to 2009
Figure 11 10: Natural gas reserves in the USA, tcm, 1980 to 2009
Figure 11 11; Proven shale gas reserves in the United States, tcm, 2007 to 2009
Figure 11 12: Shale gas production by state, tcm, 2007 to 2009
Figure 11 13: Shale gas plays in the lower 48 states
Figure 11 14: Rig counts by shale play, Jan 2007 to Jan 2010
Figure 11 15: Potential production rate that could be delivered by the major US shale plays up to 2030 - given 2010 drilling rates and mean resource estimates
Figure 11 16: Haynesville and Barnett shale gas production, bcf per day, Nov 2010 to Feb 2011
Figure 11 17: Marcellus shale drilling permits
Figure 11 18: Henry Hub Gulf Coast natural gas spot price, USD mm Btu, Jan 1997 to Mar 2011, USD per mm Btu, 2007 to March 2011
Figure 11 19: Historical and projected Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices, USD per mm Btu, Jan 2010 to Jan 2013
Figure 11 20: US and Canadian Natural Gas Drilling Rig Count and Daily Spot Prices
Figure 11 21: US NGL and natural gas prices, USD per mmBtu, Jan 2009 to Jul 2010
Figure 11 22: Shale plays in the USA
Figure 11 23: Chesapeake Energy’s strategy for joint ventures and asset monetisation
Figure 11 24: Past and projected US dry gas production, trillion cubic feet, 1990 to 2035
Figure 11 25: Historical and projected shale gas production, bcm, 1990 to 2035
Figure 11 26: Historical and projected fuel mix for electricity generation, trillion kilowatthours per year, 1990 to 2035
Figure 11 27: Henry Hub Natural Gas Daily Spot Prices, USD per mm Btu, 2003 to March 2011
Figure 12 1: Projected natural gas consumption and production, Mtoe, 1990 to 2030
Figure 12 2: Development of unconventional gas plays in Europe
Figure 12 3: European gas pipelines
Figure 12 4: Nabucco pipeline
Figure 12 5: Nord Stream pipeline
Figure 12 6: South Stream pipeline
Figure 0 1: Consumption of natural gas in Austria, bcm, 1965 to 2009
Figure 0 2: Consumption of natural gas in Bulgaria, bcm, 1965 to 2009
Figure 0 3: Production and consumption of natural gas in Denmark, bcm, 1984 to 2009
Figure 0 4: Natural gas reserves in Denmark, tcm, 1980 to 2009
Figure 0 5: Consumption of natural gas in France, bcm, 1965 to 2009
Figure 0 6: Production and consumption of natural gas in Germany, bcm, 1970 to 2009
Figure 0 7: Natural gas reserves in Germany, tcm, 1980 to 2009
Figure 0 8: Consumption of natural gas in Hungary, bcm, 1965 to 2009
Figure 0 9: Production and consumption of natural gas in the Netherlands, bcm, 1970 to 2009
Figure 0 10: Natural gas reserves in the Netherlands, tcm, 1980 to 2009
Figure 0 11: Production and consumption of natural gas in Poland, bcm, 1970 to 2009
Figure 0 12: Natural gas reserves in Poland, tcm, 1980 to 2009
Figure 0 1: Production and consumption of natural gas in Romania, bcm, 1970 to 2009
Figure 0 2: Natural gas reserves in Romania, tcm, 1980 to 2009
Figure 0 1: Production and consumption of natural gas in Russia, bcm, 1970 to 2009
Figure 0 2: Natural gas reserves in Russia, tcm, 1997 to 2009
Figure 0 1: Consumption of natural gas in Spain, bcm, 1965 to 2009
Figure 0 1: Consumption of natural gas in Sweden, bcm, 1985 to 2009
Figure 0 1: Consumption of natural gas in Switzerland, bcm, 1965 to 2009
Figure 0 1: Production and consumption of natural gas in the Ukraine, bcm, 1970 to 2009
Figure 0 2: Natural gas reserves in the Ukraine, tcm, 1997 to 2009
Figure 0 1: Production and consumption of natural gas in the United Kingdom, bcm, 1970 to 2009
Figure 0 2: Natural gas reserves in the United Kingdom, tcm, 1980 to 2009
Figure 0 3: Main potential unconventional gas rock sources in the United Kingdom
Figure 13 1: Projected natural gas consumption and production, Mtoe, 1990 to 2030
Figure 13 2: Production and consumption of natural gas in Argentina, bcm, 1970 to 2009
Figure 13 3: Natural gas reserves in Argentina, tcm, 1980 to 2009
Figure 13 4: Natural gas reserves in Peru, tcm, 1980 to 2009
Figure 13 5: Consumption of natural gas in Peru, bcm, 1965 to 2009
Figure 14 1: Projected natural gas consumption and production, Mtoe, 1990 to 2030
Figure 14 2: Production and consumption of natural gas in Australia, bcm, 1970 to 2009
Figure 14 3: Status of electricity capacity in Australia by fuel type, MW
Figure 14 4: Natural gas reserves in Australia, tcm, 1980 to 2009
Figure 14 5: Exports of LNG from Australia by destination country, bcm, 2009
Figure 14 6: Production and consumption of natural gas in China, bcm, 1970 to 2009
Figure 14 7: Natural gas reserves in China, tcm, 1980 to 2009
Figure 14 8: China gas resources by type
Figure 14 9: Location of China’s unconventional gas resources according to studies by Sinopec
Figure 14 10: Production and consumption of natural gas in India, bcm, 1970 to 2009
Figure 14 11: Natural gas reserves in India, tcm, 1980 to 2009
Figure 14 12: Production and consumption of natural gas in Indonesia, bcm, 1970 to 2009
Figure 14 13: Natural gas reserves in Indonesia, tcm, 1980 to 2009
Figure 14 14: Consumption of natural gas in Japan, bcm, 1970 to 2009
Figure 14 15: Sumitomo Marcellus shale gas projects
Figure 14 16: Consumption of natural gas in Korea, bcm, 1985 to 2009
Figure 15 1: Projected natural gas consumption and production, Mtoe, 1990 to 2030
Figure 15 2: Production and consumption of natural gas in Algeria, bcm, 1970 to 2009
Figure 15 3: Natural gas reserves in Algeria, tcm, 1980 to 2009
Figure 15 4: Sasol’s gas-to-liquid process
Figure 15 5: Historic oil: gas price ratio for Europe and Asia (contract)
Figure 16 1: Carrizo Marcellus Shale acreage in North East Pennsylvannia and Southern New York
Figure 16 2: EOG Resources acres in the Eagle Ford play
Figure 16 3: EOG Resources increased liquids weighting North American revenue mix
Figure 16 4: Price range required to achieve a 10% rate of return on capital investment, USD per barrel
Figure 16 5: Range Resources’ Marcellus shale gas production, mcf per day, 2009 to 2012
Figure 16 6: ConocoPhillips’ shale plays
Figure 16 7: ConocoPhillips production profile for its lower 48 shale plays, 2008 to 2013
Figure 16 8: ConocoPhillips Eagle Ford play, actual and projected production, million barrels of oil equivalent per day
Figure 16 9: Global LNG Supply - Demand Balance, bcf per day, 2010 to 2030
Figure 16 10: US Natural gas supply sources, bcf per day, 2011 to 2029
Figure 16 11: Projected consumption of natural gas in the United States, Asia Pacific and Europe, bcf per day
Figure 16 12: Status of Total projects as of February 2011

 

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