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世界のエネルギーセキュリティ調査 2011年 (第1版)

Energy Security Report Ed 1 2011

 

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NRG Expert
NRGエキスパート
2011年10月GBP995125

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この調査レポートは、世界のエネルギーセキュリティ市場を調査し、 エネルギー不足やエネルギー産業のリスクなどに解説・分析しています。

Introduction

At the country and company-level there are growing concerns over energy security. While no one definition of energy security exists, it is often referred to as enough energy supplies to meet demand at an acceptable price that is not detrimental to economic growth. Indices for energy security have been developed but there is no one definitive energy security index.

In terms of the fuel it is estimated that actual reserves of oil and gas will last 46 years and 59 years respectively based on the current rate of consumption. However, for the past 30 years the estimated number of years of oil and gas left has either increased or remained constant due to new discoveries. Moreover, some oil and gas resources may become reserves as newer technologies make the extraction of challenging resources more economical. Therefore the actual price of fuel is more of a concern than supplies of fuel, especially oil and gas. Current volatile prices and uncertainty over demand have created uncertainty for projects to explore for new reserves or develop projects. To compound the issue oil and gas companies are also increasingly developing unconventional oil and gas. ‘Unconventionals’ come with challenges, for example they are usually more expensive to attract, have unique environmental challenges and may use new technologies, just to name a few problems.

Therefore, companies and countries have started to investigate the use of energy supplies closer to home or from more stable countries. For example, many non-energy companies are hedging their energy supplies and diversifying their energy supplies e.g. airlines are performing test flights with biofuels. Some companies have or are considering onsite electricity and heat generation capacity to meet their electricity demand, or are sourcing electricity generated from renewables to meet CO2 emission reduction targets, especially in anticipation of or to comply with carbon trading schemes, and to improve their corporate image. Energy efficiency measures are being implemented to reduce energy consumption and energy costs as an overall strategy and in anticipation of rising energy prices.

In the energy sector, companies have focussed on diversifying their energy sources and implementing energy efficiency measures, thus reducing their energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Uncertainty in the sector is created by uncertainty over carbon trading schemes, incentives for renewable energy generation projects and environmental legislation, to just name a few examples.
The uncertainties facing companies and countries and issues regarding energy security are covered in our report. Included in this report are case study examples.

Research and Analysis highlights

Current fluctuating fuel and electricity prices are making countries and companies consider other options to meet demand. Especially as some oil and gas countries are experiencing civil disturbances, fuel theft and piracy events. For example, piracy takes place off the coast of Nigeria and off Somalia, civil unrest in Libya and oil theft in the delta region of Nigeria.

More pressing than concerns over fuel reserves is supply of electricity. NRG Expert has found that due to a lack of generation capacity in operation, under construction or in the planning stages 2032 is a critical date where world electricity supply will not meet electricity demand. This critical date may be earlier in North America and Europe and perhaps exacerbated following recent announcements by some European countries to abandon nuclear power. Unless new generation capacity is planned and comes online in the interim and/or actual electricity consumption is reduced equal to or more than the shortfall in generation capacity, there will not even be the capacity to meet demand.

Key reasons to purchase this research

  • Make informed business decisions through a clear global understanding of this market.
  • Design business strategies by understanding the trends, developments and predictions.
Table of Contents 詳細資料は、お問い合わせフォームから請求してください。

1. Executive Summary ................................................................... 10
2. Energy Security .......................................................................... 11
3. Fuel reserves ............................................................................ 13
4. Electricity prices ......................................................................... 22
5. Power generation capacity ......................................................... 24

6. Growing Shortage ...................................................................... 37

Oil ........................................... 37
Natural Gas ............................................................................... 44
Oil and Gas ............................................................................... 49
Coal ........................................ 52
Biomass .................................. 53
Hydro ...................................... 54
Uranium .................................. 54

7. Measuring energy security ......................................................... 55

CSI .......................................... 55
Energy Security Index developed by the IEA ............................. 58
Energy Security Index for Korea based on the Hirschman.Herfindahl index (HHI) ..................... 59
Measures of Oil Import Dependence ......................................... 60
Security of Gas Supply ............................................................... 61
US Energy Security Risk Index .................................................. 62

8. Risks for the energy sector ........................................................ 64

Regulation & Environment.......................................................... 64
Environmental pollution and liability ........................................... 67
Increasing emissions performance ............................................ 68
Standards .................................................................................. 69
Uncertainty of political commitments .......................................... 69
Renewable Energy Policy uncertainty ........................................ 70
Policy changes ........................................................................... 73
Oil .......................................... 73
Gas ........................................ 74
Technological Risks ................................................................... 74
Scarcity of essential mineral components .................................. 74
Financial & Investment Risks ..................................................... 75
Future demand uncertainty ........................................................ 75
Electricity .................................................................................. 77
Impact of pricing fluctuations ...................................................... 77
Oil and Gas ............................................................................... 77
Coal ....................................... 80
Electricity .................................................................................. 80
Cost of unconventional resources .............................................. 81
Carbon price uncertainty ............................................................ 85
UN Clean Development Mechanism ......................................... 85
EU Emissions Trading Scheme ................................................. 85
New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme ................................ 86
Longevity .................................................................................. 86
Carbon prices ............................................................................ 87
Theft from Smart Grids .............................................................. 87
Operational Risks ....................................................................... 89
Political threats in unstable regions ............................................ 89
Drug lords ................................................................................. 89
Pipelines ................................................................................... 89
On land installations .................................................................. 89
Maritime piracy .......................................................................... 89
Unconventional resources .......................................................... 90
Failing infrastructures in changing climates ............................... 90
Newer or cleaner technologies making existing infrastructure obsolete ....................................... 90
Electric vehicles ......................................................................... 91
Distributed power ....................................................................... 92
Cyber threats to smart grids ....................................................... 92
Skill shortage ............................................................................. 93
Reputational Risks ..................................................................... 93
Environmental damage resulting from difficult to extract fossil fuels ............................................ 93
Shale gas .................................................................................. 94
Oil sands (tar sands) ................................................................. 94
Pollution from new technologies ................................................ 95
Accidents ................................................................................... 95
Case Studies ............................................................................ 100
Duke Energy ............................................................................ 100
Iberdrola .................................................................................. 103
Peabody .................................................................................. 103
Petrobras ................................................................................. 104
Shell ...................................... 107

9. Risks for business .................................................................... 109

Financial and Regulatory Risk ................................................. 109
Carbon Price Uncertainty ......................................................... 109
Increasing Legislation and Standards on Efficiency ................................................................... 110
Consumer Pressure for CO2 Emissions Disclosure ................. 111
Technological Risks ................................................................. 111
Safety of Smart Grid ................................................................. 111
Operational and Supply Chain Risks ....................................... 112
Higher and Volatile Energy Prices ........................................... 112
Fuel and Electricity Supply Disruptions .................................... 112
Electricity ................................................................................ 112
Fuel ...................................... 113
Lack of standardised global carbon and climate policy ............................................................... 114
Business Reputation ................................................................ 114
Scrutiny of Portfolio and Company Operations ........................ 114
Delivery of Services compromised by Energy Disruptions ......................................................... 114
Case Studies ............................................................................ 114
Amtrak .................................. 114
Apple .................................... 115
British Telecom (BT) ................................................................. 115
Coca Cola ................................................................................ 116
Google .................................. 116
Hapag-Lloyd ............................................................................ 117
IKEA ..................................... 117
Lufthansa ................................................................................. 118
McDonalds .............................................................................. 119
Proctor & Gamble (P&G) .......................................................... 120
Tata Steel ................................................................................ 120

10. Water security .......................................................................... 122
11. Sources ................................................................................... 125

Tables

Table 3-1: Global Peace Index (GPI) ................................................. 18
Table 5-1: Electricity supply disruptions for the first three quarters of 2011 ......................................... 30
Table 5-2: Ofgem’s four scenarios for the electricity grid in the UK...................................................... 32
Table 5-3: Impact of different stresses for Ofgem’s four grid scenarios ............................................... 33
Table 7-1: Projected import dependence of the EU and EU-30 in 1998, 2010, 2020 and 2030 .......... 55
Table 7-2: Energy diversification by selected countries based on CSI data for 2008 .......................... 57
Table 7-3: CSI score for selected countries ....................................... 58
Table 7-4: Energy security cost (Ci) for various disruption periods in electricity generation in South Korea .................. 60
Table 7-5: Measures of oil import dependence.................................. 60
Table 7-6: Risk matrix for security of gas supply ............................... 61
Table 8-1: Examples of renewable energy subsidies or target being reduced or cancelled due to economic conditions .................. 70
Table 8-2: Measures undertaken the Brazilian government in 2010 to control regulated costs and guarantee sustainability in the electricity system, EUR million .................. 72
Table 8-3: Frontier resources and unconventional oil and gas ............................................................. 81
Table 8-4: Cyber-vulnerabilities in the smart grid system .................. 87
Table 8-5: Specific potential points of weakness in the smart grid ....................................................... 88
Table 8-6: Four states that sponsor terrorism according to the US Department of State .................... 89
Table 8-7: Details of the Deepwater Horizon, Exxon Valdez and Fukushima accidents ...................... 96
Table 8-8: Proposed rate increases for Duke Energy customers for February 2012 ......................... 102
Table 8-9: Peabody’s 2050 energy success, economic growth and environmental solution goals .... 104
Table 9-1: Estimated airline bills from the EU ETS in 2012 ................................................................ 109
Table 9-2: BT’s energy efficiency measures .................................... 115
Table 9-3: Tata Steel’s purchased power consumption for the 2010/2011 and 2009/2010 financial years .................. 120
Table 10-1: Water demand/impact of transportation fuels .................................................................. 122
Table 10-2: Water use and consumption for electric power generation ............................................. 123

Figures

Figure 2-1: Supply chain in the gas sector ......................................... 12
Figure 3-1: Global primary energy consumption, million tons of oil equivalent, 1965 to 2010 ............. 13
Figure 3-2: Proven oil reserves, thousand million barrels, 1980 to 2010 ............................................. 14
Figure 3-3: Proven natural gas reserves, trillion cubic metres, 1980 to 2010 ...................................... 14
Figure 3-4: R/P ratio of global oil reserves, years, 1980 to 2010.......................................................... 15
Figure 3-5: R/P ratio of global natural gas reserves, years, 1980 to 2010 ........................................... 15
Figure 3-6: Global electricity generation, TWh, 1990 to 2010 .............................................................. 16
Figure 3-7: Spot crude prices, USD per barrel, 1972 to 2010 .............................................................. 16
Figure 3-8: Natural gas prices, USD per million Btu, 1984 to 2010 ...................................................... 17
Figure 3-9: Coal prices, USD per tonne, 1987 to 2010 ...................... 17
Figure 3-10: Oil consumption and production in China, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2010 ....... 20
Figure 3-11: Oil consumption and production in India, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2010 ......... 21
Figure 4-1: Utility coal and petroleum stocks and stocks per electricity generated, 1949 to 2009 ....... 22
Figure 4-2: Average retail electricity prices in the US, USD cents per kWh including taxes, 1960 to 2009 .................. 23
Figure 5-1: Actual and projected world electricity, capacity, generation and consumption, MW, 1990 to 2050 .................. 24
Figure 5-2: Actual and projected electricity generation and consumption in the G8 and BRIC countries, MW, 1990 to 2020 .................. 24
Figure 5-3: Actual and projected electricity generation and consumption in North America, Europe, Asia Pacific and Middle East, MW, 1990 to 2020 .............................. 26
Figure 5-4: Actual and projected world generation capacity by type, MW, 1990 to 2020 .................... 29
Figure 5-5: Peak load reduction and utility costs per energy saved, 1989 to 2008 .............................. 32
Figure 5-6: Key timings for projects to fulfil future shortfalls in the UK’s electricity sector ................... 35
Figure 6-1: Oil production and consumption, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2010 ........................ 37
Figure 6-2: Oil refining capacity, throughput and oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2010 .................. 38
Figure 6-3: Refining margins in US Gulf Coast (USGC), North West Europe (NWE - Rotterdam) and Singapore for different generic refinery configuration (cracking, hydrocracking or coking), USD per
barrel, Q1 1992 to Q4 2010 .................. 39
Figure 6-4: Oil production in thousand barrels and proven reserves in billion barrels in OPEC and major non-OPEC countries at the end of 2010 .................................. 40
Figure 6-5: Proven oil reserves in North America and in Major European producing countries, billion barrels, 1980 to 2010 .................. 41
Figure 6-6: Proven oil reserves by region, billion barrels, 1980 to 2010 .............................................. 41
Figure 6-7: Net crude oil and oil product trade movements in 2010, thousand barrels per day ........... 42
Figure 6-8: Net oil imports for the US and Europe, thousand barrels per day, 1980 to 2010 .............. 42
Figure 6-9: Global biofuel production, thousand barrels per day, 2000 to 2010 ................................... 43
Figure 6-10: Natural gas production and consumption, bcm, 1970 to 2010 ......................................... 44
Figure 6-11: Proven natural reserves by region, tcm, 1980 to 2010 .................................................... 45
Figure 6-12: Natural gas production and consumption in the US and Russia, bcm, 1970 to 2010 ...... 46
Figure 6-13: Actual and projected share of primary energy by fuel type, 1970 to 2030 ....................... 48
Figure 6-14: Natural gas production and consumption in China and India, bcm, 1970 to 2010 ........... 49
Figure 6-15: Oil and gas consumption and imports as a percentage of consumption for China, Europe and the US, 1990 to 2030 .................. 50
Figure 6-16: China’s territorial claim in the South China Sea ............................................................... 51
Figure 6-17: Global coal production and consumption, Mtoe, 1981 to 2010 ........................................ 52
Figure 6-18: Indian coal production and consumption, Mtoe, 1981 to 2010 ......................................... 53
Figure 6-19: Global nuclear consumption based on gross generation, Mtoe, 1965 to 2010 ................ 54
Figure 7-1: CSI scores for oil in the Asia Pacific region (Australia, Japan, Korea and New Zealand), 1990 to 2008 .................................. 56
Figure 7-2: CSI scores for natural gas and oil in the North America region (Canada and the United States), 1990 to 2008 .................. 56
Figure 7-3: CSI scores for natural gas and oil in selected countries in the European region, 1990 to 2008 ............................................... 57
Figure 7-4: US Energy Security Risk Index, 1970 to 2035 ................................................................... 63
Figure 8-1: Global CO2 emissions, million tonnes, 1965 to 2010 ......................................................... 66
Figure 8-2: CO2 emissions by region, million tonnes, 1965 to 2010 ..................................................... 67
Figure 8-3: CO2 emissions in China, India and the US, million tonnes, 1965 to 2010 ......................... 67
Figure 8-4: Growth in global solar and wind capacity, MW, 1996 to 2010 ........................................... 73
Figure 8-5: Actual and projected growth in primary energy consumption OECD and non-OECD, billion toe, 1970 to 2030 .................. 75
Figure 8-6: Historical and projected growth in demand for fossil fuels in the OECD and non-OECD, mboe per day, 1970 to 2030 .............................................................. 76
Figure 8-7: Balance of OPEC supply and demand, million barrels per day, Q1 2011 to Q4 2012 ....... 76
Figure 8-8: Monthly averages of clean spot freight rates ................... 78
Figure 8-9: Typical supply curve for a given size of fleet ................... 79
Figure 8-10: Ship new build and five year asset value since 2000 ....................................................... 80
Figure 8-11: Unconventional and conventional gas production costs, USD per GJ, 2008 ................... 82
Figure 8-12: Costs for new oil supply ................................................. 83
Figure 8-13: Resources to Reserves . Production Cost Curve (including a carbon tax of USD 50 per tonne CO2 equivalent emissions) ....................................................... 84
Figure 8-14: Historical and projected natural gas prices, USD per MMBtu, 1987 to 2025 ................... 85
Figure 8-15: Number of electric vehicles in use in the US, 1992 to 2008 ............................................. 91
Figure 8-16: Retail motor gasoline prices in selected countries, USD per gallon, 1990 to 2009 ......... 92
Figure 8-17: Tailings pond ................................................................. 95
Figure 8-18: Closing share price for BP, USD, 18th December 2009 to 18th August 2011 ................. 98
Figure 8-19: Closing share price for Halliburton and Transocean, USD, 18th December 2009 to 18th August 2011 ................................... 98
Figure 8-20: Closing share price for Exxon, USD, 25th January 1988 to 25th July 1992 ..................... 99
Figure 8-21: Closing share price for TEPCO, USD, 11th January 2010 to 11th August 2011 ........... 100
Figure 8-22: Coverage of Duke Energy and Progress Energy ........................................................... 101
Figure 8-23: Projected oil demand and projected oil supply from existing fields, million barrels per day, 2000 to 2030 .................. 105
Figure 8-24: Oil and gas target of Supermajors and Petrobras, thousand barrels per day, 2000 to 2020 ............................................. 105
Figure 8-25: Forecast oil prices and the Petrobras business plan 2010 to 2014, USD per barrel, 1990 to 2030 ......................................... 106
Figure 8-26: Shell’s global unconventional gas projects .................. 107
Figure 9-1: Price development of crude oil and kerosene, USD per tonne, 2008 to 2010 ................. 119
Figure 9-2: Oil price scenario 2010 and the hedged price for Lufthansa as of February 2011, USD per barrel ............................................ 119

 

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