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The photovoltaic industry has boomed over the past decade, growing at a rate of over 35% per year. Concerned about climate change and energy independence, governments have been implementing incentives that promote the adoption of solar energy in order to shift consumption away from fossil fuels for the generation of electricity. 

NextGen Research forecasts global demand for photovoltaic installations will slow through 2013, but still will exhibit a healthy compound annual growth rate of almost 24%. Following dour markets in 2009-2010 caused by the global economic meltdown and unanticipated oversupply in silicon feedstock (the raw material from which most solar cells are made), the PV industry will experience markedly higher growth starting in 2011, with Italy, Japan, and the United States among the countries that will drive demand. 

What Does This Report Answer?

• Why is government intervention required to support the market for photovoltaics?
• Which countries lead in photovoltaic installations, and which will lead in the future?
• What are the technologies used in photovoltaics, and what sets them apart?
• Which companies are likely to weather the upcoming shakeout in the photovoltaic market?
• How will the Obama administration support the development of the US PV industry?
• How successful are feed-in tariffs compared to net metering?

Who Needs This Report?

• Photovoltaic product and equipment manufacturers
• Electrical utilities
• Oil and gas companies
• Venture capitalists
• Producers of Building Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV)
• Governmental energy policy administrators

Table of Contents

Section 1.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1. Overview
1.2. Growth in Photovoltaic Installations
1.3. Photovoltaic Technology Trends & Developments
1.4. Competitive Landscape
1.5. Government Policy Developments
1.6. Key Drivers & Barriers in the Photovoltaic Market
1.7. Forecast Highlights

Section 2.
TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW
2.1. Introduction to Photovoltaic Technology
2.1.1. PV Cells
2.1.2. PV Modules
2.1.3. PV Systems
2.1.4. PV Arrays
2.2. Photovoltaic Cell Types
2.2.1. Monocrystalline 
2.2.2. Multicrystalline 
2.2.3. Thin Film
2.2.4. Amorphous 
2.2.5. Cadmium telluride (CdTe)
2.2.6. Copper Indium (di)Selenide (CIGS)
2.2.7. Gallium Arsenide (GaAs)
2.3. PV Supply Chain
2.4. PV System Types

Section 3.
BUSINESS & REGULATORY ISSUES
3.1. Current Government Policies & Incentives
3.2. Regional Analysis
3.2.1. Germany
3.2.2. Spain
3.2.3. Japan
3.2.4. United States
3.2.5. Other
3.3. Key Drivers 
3.4. Key Barriers 

Section 4.
MARKET OUTLOOK
4.1. Market Dynamics
4.2. Demand Forecast
4.2.1. World
4.2.2. Europe 
4.2.3. United States
4.2.4. Japan
4.2.5. Outlook by Region
4.3. Competition & Key Players
4.4. PV Technology Forecast

Section 5.
COMPANY PROFILES
5.1. Evergreen Solar
5.2. First Solar 
5.3. GT Solar
5.4. JA Solar 
5.5. Kyocera 
5.6. Q-Cells 
5.7. Renewable Energy Corporation
5.8. Sanyo
5.9. Sharp 
5.10. SolarWorld

Section 6.
INDUSTRY DIRECTORY

(日本語訳)

本格的成長を前に足踏みする太陽光発電市場

2009年2月10日
地球温暖化への懸念とエネルギー自給を望む傾向から、太陽エネルギーの需要が増加し、過去10年間、太陽光発電が静かなブームで年間成長率35％以上で成長してきている。懸念は益々強まっているため、各国の政府は化石燃料による発電を減らすため、太陽エネルギー導入を推進するインセンティブの枠組みを実行に移すだろう。

初期段階にある太陽光市場が発展して規模の経済に達すれば、太陽光導入のコストは下がるため、これらの助成金は必要な間の暫定措置である。それは、太陽エネルギーがグリッドパリティ(ある発電方式のコストが価格競争力を持つこと、一般の電力価格と同等になること)を達成するか、あるいはソーラーパネルの電力コストが天然ガス、石油、石炭などの従来の方法による発電に匹敵するまでということである。

米国の調査会社NextGenリサーチの調査レポート「世界の太陽光発電市場」は、太陽光発電市場の現状を分析し、今後の方向性を示している。主な記載内容を下記にあげる。

• 太陽光発電市場は2011年には飛躍的な成長を始めるだろうが、多くの他の産業界と同様に、少なくとも今後2年間は、2008年の経済崩壊などの制約要因によるマイナス影響を受けるだろう。その結果、太陽光発電導入の世界需要は、以前の年間平均成長率35％という高い数値から下がり、2013年までの間は年間平均約24％で成長すると予測される。
• 市場需要を促進するのは主に日本、米国、イタリアで、助成金が減ったスペインとドイツの成長は衰えるだろう
• 垂直統合メーカーは、ソーラーパネルを安価に大量に製造できるため、順調だろう。これらの企業は大きな規模の経済を達成できるため、需要は増加して価格は更に下がるだろう。

NextGenリサーチの調査取締役Larry Fisher氏は言う。「世界経済の低迷、金融市場の崩壊、そして、非常に多くの太陽光発電企業の製造するパネルが供給過剰となっており、太陽エネルギー市場はターニングポイントを迎えている。資金とベンチャーキャピタルが枯渇し、2009年から2010年にかけて市場で大きな統合が行われるだろう。お金を費やして市場の主要ポジションにつく道を選ぶ企業も出てくるだろう。」

(原文)

Booming Photovoltaic Industry to Stumble Before Resuming High Growth, NextGen Research Forecasts

02-10-2009
The photovoltaic industry has quietly boomed over the past decade, growing at a rate of more than 35% per year as demand for solar power has been driven by concerns about climate change and energy independence. As these concerns continue to grow, governments will implement incentive frameworks to promote the adoption of solar energy as a means of shifting electrical power generation away from fossil fuels.

These subsidies are a necessary interim measure as the relatively nascent solar industry develops and achieves economies of scale, which in turn will lower the cost of PV installations. The intent is for solar power to achieve grid parity, or the point at which the cost of generating electricity from solar panels approaches that of power production by conventional means, using natural gas, oil or coal.

A new report from NextGen Research, "The Global Photovoltaic Market: Sunny Prospects for Energy Independence Through Solar Power," analyzes recent trends and maps out the future direction of the photovoltaic market. Some highlights include:

• Just as is the case in many industries, the PV market will suffer from the impact of 2008's financial meltdown (along with other restraining factors) for at least two years, before experiencing markedly higher growth starting in 2011. As a result, global demand for photovoltaic installations will slow from its previously robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35%, and will see growth averaging about 24% per year through 2013. 
• Japan, the United States and Italy are among the countries that will drive demand, as ebbing subsidies shift growth away from Spain and Germany. 
• Vertically integrated manufacturers will fare well, as will low-cost and high-volume producers of solar panels; these companies will achieve huge economies of scale, which will cause prices to fall further while spurring greater demand. 

Says Larry Fisher, Research Director for NextGen Research, "With the advent of the global economic recession, the collapse of the credit markets, and far too many PV companies producing an excess supply of panels, the market for photovoltaics has reached a turning point. As both financing and venture capital has dried up, we can expect significant consolidation in the market in the 2009-2010 time frame, and some companies actually will buy their way into major market positions."