世界各国のリアルタイムなデータ・インテリジェンスで皆様をお手伝い

有機EL照明 2015-2022年:市場の再評価と推進力

OLED Lighting 2015-2022: Reassessing Markets and Momentum

 

出版社 出版年月価格
n-tech Research (NanoMarkets)
エヌテックリサーチ - ナノマーケッツ
2015年5月お問い合わせください

サマリー

この調査レポートは有機EL照明とその主要最終市場 (特にオフィス照明や低価格住居用照明) との間に依然として立ちはだかる課題について検討しながら、有機EL照明分野で展開していく最終市場での消費と将来性について再考しています。

主要市場分野の消費量と価格については、今後8年間を予測し、従来型照明技術に対し有機EL照明がいかに効果的な競争を見せていくことができるかについての評価を行っています。さらには有機EL照明分野における主要企業の基本重点戦略について技術展開・製造から主要パートナーにいたる分析情報を提供しています。

Description

A year ago the outlook for OLED lighting seemed to brighten a bit, anticipating that new capacity build-outs and continued development would enable higher outputs and lower costs, and finally start to unlock broad market demand. Unfortunately these efforts largely haven't panned out: LG Chem has pushed out its planned expansion, Konica Minolta did ramp but we believe with disappointing results so far, and Philips is getting out of OLED lighting (and lighting components entirely).

On the end market side of the equation, one can still find reasons to be encouraged. OLED lighting products are showing up in home improvement stores for just $200, instead of the thousands they cost just a couple of years ago. The first vehicles with OLED lighting are expected to arrive within the next 12-24 months. And there are always occasional opportunities to be found in unique showcase installations.

But the real big end-market fish for OLED lighting -- office and commercial lighting, and low-cost residential -- remain frustratingly elusive, still unable to broadly appreciate and embrace OLED lighting's value proposition. The issue seems to be less about technology and performance improvements, and more about persistently high costs and pricing -- which is why the aforementioned manufacturing expansions and improvements (and more of them) are so critical.

The OLED lighting sector is also stuck in a loop. Manufacturers are waiting to commit until there is enough real or imminent end-market demand --  but demand largely will be lured by vastly cheaper products enabled through production improvements and lower costs. The question now seems to be which strategy to embrace for the near- to mid-term: press on and believe, stand pat and wait, or give up and get out? All these cases can be made.

This latest report from n-tech Research revisits our assumptions and expectations on the evolution of end-markets for the OLED lighting sector, evaluating the challenges still standing between OLED lighting and key end markets, especially general illumination in offices and low-cost residential lighting. We include eight-year (volume and value) projections for all the major market sectors along with an assessment of how OLED lighting can effectively compete with conventional lighting technologies. This report also analyzes the core strategies of leading players in the OLED lighting space, from technology development and manufacturing to key partnerships.



目次

Executive Summary

 E.1 Resetting Expectations: Changes from Our Previous Report
 E.2 Update on End Markets: What's Holding Back Mass Markets
 E.3 Update on Technology Improvements
 E.4 Companies to Watch
 E.5 Summary of Eight-Year Market Forecasts for OLED Lighting Markets

Chapter One: Introduction

 1.1 Background to this Report
 1.1.1 OLED Lighting: Slow-Dancing with Demand
 1.1.2 Mass Markets Still Elusive
 1.1.3 Volume Leaders, Who Will Pay the Price?
 1.1.4 Regional Plays: Europe, Asia, and U.S.
 1.1.5 Scenarios, Scenarios
 1.2 Objective and Scope of this Report
 1.3 Methodology of this Report
 1.4 Forecasting Assumptions
 1.4.1 Panel Sizes
 1.4.2 Production Capacity and Utilization Estimates
 1.4.3 Pricing Estimates
 1.5 Plan of this Report

Chapter Two: OLED Technology, Manufacturing, and Materials

 2.1 OLED Lighting Performance: Status and Targets
 2.1.1 Lifetimes
 2.1.2 Efficacy
 2.1.3 Luminance
 2.2 Key Issues in Manufacturing
 2.2.1 Process Progress Report
 2.2.2 Production Yields
 2.2.3 Expansion Plans and Promises
 2.3 Generation Next: Migration to Large Panels
 2.4 Update on Flexible Panels
 2.5 Materials Update
 2.5.1 Organic Stack Components
 2.5.2 Substrates
 2.5.3 Light Extraction
 2.5.4 Encapsulation
 2.6 Market Makers: Catalysts for OLED Lighting
 2.7 Luminaires vs. Design Kits: The Market Moves On
 2.8 Eight-year forecast of OLED Lighting Designer Kits and Samples
 2.9  Key Points in this Chapter

Chapter Three: Automotive, the OLED Lighting Pace Car

 3.1 Automobile Industry Requirements and OLED Lighting
 3.1.1 Similarities with Other New Technologies
 3.2 Uses for OLED Lighting in Automotive
 3.2.1 Performance Tradeoffs for OLED Lighting in Automotive
 3.2.2 External Lighting: Prime Real Estate
 3.2.3 Internal Lighting: Coming to the Forefront
 3.3 Flexible OLEDs: A Natural Fit for Automotive?
 3.4 Update: Car Makers' Plans for OLED Lighting
 3.5 Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting in Automotive
 3.6 Key Points from this Chapter

Chapter Four: Office/Commercial and OLED Lighting, Hunting the Killer App

 4.1 Why Office Lighting Remains an Elusive Target
 4.2 Technical Requirements for Commercial Lighting
 4.3 Designing to Win -- or Lose
 4.4 Bigger is Better: Who's Leading the OLED Panel Charge
 4.5 Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting in Office/Commercial
 4.6 Key Points from this Chapter

Chapter Five: Homeward Bound: OLED Lighting in Residential/Consumer Lighting

 5.1 Pricing Trends and Encouraging Signs
 5.2 OLEDs vs. LEDs: Why Consumer Education Still Matters
 5.3 Premium Product Conundrum: Embrace or Escape?
 5.4 Easing Into It: How and Where to Watch for OLED in Residential
 5.5 Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting in Residential/Consumer Lighting
 5.6 Key Points from this Chapter

Chapter Six:  Custom Large-Scale and Outdoor Installations

 6.1 Large Installations: OLED Lighting's Newsmakers
 6.2 OLED Lighting and Outdoor Applications: Still in the Shadows
 6.2.1 Key Issues: Output and Encapsulation
 6.3 Verdict: An Acceptable Niche?
 6.4 Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting in Custom Large-Scale Installations
 6.5 Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting in Outdoor Installations
 6.6 Key Points from this Chapter

Chapter Seven: Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for OLED Lighting

 7.1 Our Overall Thoughts: Where OLED Lighting Is and Needs to Be
 7.2 Summary of Forecasts for OLED Lighting Panels
 7.3 Summary of Forecasts for OLED Luminaires
 7.4 Summary of Forecasts for OLED Lighting -- Grand Totals

Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report
About the Author

 

ページTOPに戻る

プレスリリース

n-tech Research Issues Latest Report on OLED Lighting Market

Glen Allen, VA: Momentum for the OLED lighting sector has remained frustratingly elusive. Nevertheless, industry analyst firm n-tech Research still sees OLED lighting arising to a billion-dollar market by the end of this decade, and topping $2.2 billion by 2022, thanks to steady improvements in the technology, suppliers finally pulling the trigger on capacity expansions, and general illumination markets finally arriving (if late) to the party.

This latest report from n-tech Research revisits our assumptions and expectations about the evolution of the OLED lighting sector and the challenges still standing between the technology and key end markets: general illumination in offices/commercial buildings and residential lighting, automotive, non-automotive outdoor lighting, designer kits and related products, and large-scale custom installations.

We include eight-year (volume and value) projections, along with an assessment of how OLED lighting can effectively compete with conventional lighting technologies. We also evaluate the regional potential for OLED lighting, and the leading players in the OLED lighting space.

Among the companies discussed in this report:  Acuity, Astron Fiamm, Audi, Blackbody, BMW, Corning, Cynora, First-o-Lite, Henkel, Idemitsu Kosan, Konica Minolta, Kaneka, Kateeva, LG Chem, Lumiotec, Merck, Mitsubishi, NEC Lighting, Novaled/Cheil, OLEDWorks, Osram, Panasonic, Philips, Pioneer, Samsung, Sumitomo, Umage, Universal Display, Visionox, WAC Lighting, and WiseChip Semiconductor.

Highlights from the Report:

  • Performance parameters for OLED lighting have seen impressive gains. Lifetimes are approaching where they need to be; efficacy may well see increased emphasis now.

  • Above all else is the need to reduce costs, primarily through capacity expansions, but suppliers remain overly cautious. Meanwhile familiar areas continue to be addressed: better encapsulation, process optimization, materials utilization, and flexible substrates. New production methods like solution-based processing are improving but probably on a medium-term timeframe.

  • OLED lighting for vehicles is still on a timeframe of 2017 arrival, and initially for luxury models. BMW has been most vocal about OLED lighting on that schedule, while Audi also recently tipped plans for an upcoming model due in 2017. We also expect an update shortly about Japanese automakers and OLED lighting. We see automotive OLED lighting slowly emerging as a $42 million market by 2019 and $119 million by 2022.

  • What's holding back general illumination markets -- office/commercial lighting especially -- is largely higher costs, while for residential lighting aesthetic appeal (within a consumer’s budget) needs to improve as well. OLED lighting has seen some minor success in niche areas though, including medical and architectural/heritage buildings. Acuity's new $199-$299 OLED lighting products now available through Home Depot are enormously important, but more products and vendors and designs are needed to crack these markets.

  • n-tech sees both commercial and residential OLED lighting segments on roughly the same trajectory: around $100-$130 million each by 2017, $445-$490 million by 2020, and closing in on $1 billion market values by 2022.

  • Large-scale custom installations of OLED lighting will continue to drive the majority of business in the near-term, while also serving to broadly educate what OLED lighting can do. The past year has seen a number of remarkably large OLED lighting installations, including the biggest one by far: Konica Minolta's 15,000-panel project for a Japanese festival.

あなたが最近チェックしたレポート一覧

  • 最近チェックしたレポートはありません。

お問合は、お電話またはWEBから承ります。お見積もりの作成もお気軽にご相談ください。

webからのお問合せはこちらのフォームから承ります

このレポートへのお問合せ

03-3582-2531

電話お問合せもお気軽に

<無料>メルマガに登録する

 

 

ページTOPに戻る