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米国の調査会社ライトリーディング社の調査レポート「Docsis 3.0のビジネスチャンス:市場をリードするIPTVと中小規模企業(SMB)」は、Docsis 3.0の技術機能、入手可能機器、ビジネス事項、そしてDSLと競合できるか否かについて詳細に記載している。北米市場に焦点を当てているが、アジアや欧州における商用サービスの展開についても記載している。PacketCable 2.0の発展について調査し、機能、今後の方向性、以前の規格との相違点を説明している。PacketCable 2.0とIMSを比較して、CableLab、技術ベンダ、MSOの取り組みとPacketCable 2.0を実現するための計画を考察している。

This report details Docsis 3.0 in terms of technological features, equipment availability, business considerations, and its ability to compete with DSL- and fiber-based video and broadband services. Its focus is the North American market, but it also includes coverage of commercial rollouts in Asia and Europe.

概要

Version 3.0 of CableLabs' Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification (Docsis) is arguably one of the most hotly anticipated technologies of the year – not just by cable multiple system operators (MSOs), but also by their chief competitors, the telcos. Docsis 3.0 is also closely watched by investors looking to bet on both broadband and another hotly anticipated technology: Internet Protocol television (IPTV). All three camps will soon have a better sense of how Docsis 3.0 will affect the competitive environment, because dozens of MSOs worldwide – including in North America – plan to deploy Docsis 3.0 by the end of 2008.

Although the "D" in Docsis stands for data, it's becoming a misnomer in version 3.0. That's because Docsis 3.0 makes it more practical for MSOs to deliver video over IP, thanks to its increased throughput and quality-of-service (QOS) mechanisms. There are plenty of business and technology caveats, however, to the point that most MSOs probably won't use Docsis 3.0 for IPTV until after 2010.

Despite its IP video capabilities, Docsis 3.0's biggest selling point is still broadband: downstream data rates of at least 160 Mbit/s and upstream speeds of at least 120 Mbit/s in the minimum 4x4 configuration (four bonded upstream channels and another four downstream). MSOs and cable equipment vendors believe this throughput is more than sufficient to compete with fiber-based telco broadband services such as Verizon's FiOS.

Docsis 3.0's upstream throughput shouldn't be overlooked. The combination of more speed and less asymmetry will almost certainly help cable operators sell into the small and medium-size enterprise (SME) market. When 8x4 Docsis equipment becomes available, perhaps as early as 2009, MSOs will have downstream speeds of 320 Mbit/s to pitch to SMEs. But even with the base 4x4 configuration, many vendors believe that Docsis 3.0 will spur MSOs into getting serious about targeting the enterprise market. That's a safe and reasonable assumption.

MSOs' ability to deploy Docsis 3.0 is associated with – but not wholly dependent upon – other technology upgrades, such as upgrading plant capacity to 1 GHz and deploying switched digital video (SDV). Many MSOs are already underway with these upgrades, thereby helping pave the way for Docsis 3.0.

Another key variable that will affect the timing of Docsis 3.0 rollouts is the cost of customer-premises equipment (CPE). Right now, no one is sure exactly how much Docsis 3.0 modems will cost, mainly because vendors are still putting the finishing touches on their initial products and addressing issues that come up in CableLabs' tests. Estimates vary widely, but generally fall into the neighborhood of $100 for first-generation Docsis 3.0 modems. By comparison, Docsis 2.0 modems can be had for about $30 in volume.

Perhaps the biggest factor determining where and when Docsis 3.0 is rolled out is the competitive environment in each market. If a telco already offers, or is about to offer, fiber-based broadband in a particular market, the MSO(s) there are likely to deploy Docsis 3.0 as soon as possible to counter that threat. Based on what vendors and cable operators tell Light Reading's Cable Industry Insider, large U.S. MSOs are likely to begin providing customers with Docsis 3.0 modems by mid 2008, and then turn on Docsis 3.0 service sometime in the second half of 2008. The consensus is that Asian and European MSOs have an even more aggressive schedule, but opinions differ about whether those deployments create learning opportunities and thus a fast-follower advantage for North American MSOs.

Docsis 3.0 Opportunities: IPTV & SMB Lead the Way details Docsis 3.0 in terms of technological features, equipment availability, business considerations, and its ability to compete with DSL- and fiber-based video and broadband services. Although this report focuses on the North American market, it includes coverage of Docsis 3.0 in Asia and Europe, because some in the cable industry believe that commercial rollouts there can provide U.S. and Canadian MSOs with useful insights into how the technology performs when scaled up in a real-world environment.

Docsis 3.0 Opportunities: IPTV & SMB Lead the Way provides critical insight and analysis for a range of industry participants, including:

			Cable operators needing a deeper understanding of emerging opportunities presented by Docsis 3.0 technology, including an independent analysis of the costs and benefits of those opportunities
			Satellite and telco service providers that need to assess the full potential competitive threat posed by cable MSO Docsis 3.0 rollouts
			Technology suppliers assessing the market opportunity for Docsis 3.0 products
			Investors needing a better understanding of the market opportunity and cost of Docsis 3.0 service rollouts and the long-term impact of those rollouts on the overall telecom service ecosystem

Sample research data from the report is shown in the excerpts below: Although increased upstream and downstream throughput is a major reason, if not the reason, why MSOs will deploy Docsis 3.0, IP video is another. Docsis 3.0 provides MSOs with a low-cost means of delivering IPTV, as well as an opportunity to support advertising that's targeted at specific viewers. The following table provides a representative sampling of Docsis 3.0 equipment vendors. The table includes examples of existing MSO customers, which are noteworthy because the vendor may be able to leverage that relationship to sell Docsis 3.0 equipment – if they haven't already. It also includes Docsis 3.0 trials and tests, which may translate into sales or at least real-world experiences that could be attractive proof points to potential customers. 拡大図

• Service providers covered in this report include: AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T); Charter Communications Inc. (Nasdaq: CHTR); Comcast Corp. (Nasdaq: CMCSA); Cox Communications Inc., a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc.; RCN Corp. (Nasdaq: RCNI); Rogers Cable Inc., a subsidiary of Rogers Communications Inc. (NYSE: RCI); and Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ).
• Equipment vendors covered in this report include: Arris Group Inc. (Nasdaq: ARRS); BigBand Networks Inc. (Nasdaq: BBND); Casa Systems Inc.; Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO); Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT); Scientific-Atlanta Inc., a subsidiary of Cisco Systems; and Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN).

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Table of Contents

I. Introduction: Cable's Threepeat

II. Docsis 3.0: Heritage & Key Features

• Channel Bonding: Speed Isn't Everything
• IPv6: Preparing for the Future
• Backward Compatibility & Device Distribution
• Improved Security

III. DPI Growth Prospects

• CPE
• CMTS & M-CMTS
• Plant Capaciaty
• Global Facators

IV. New Market Opportunities & Competitive Impact