NFC小売マーケティングとモバイル決済市場調査:2016年までの予測と戦略 / ジュニパーリサーチ社

NFC小売マーケティングとモバイル決済市場調査:2016年までの予測と戦略

NFC Retail Marketing & Mobile Payments
Markets, Forecasts & Strategies 2011-2016

目次
プレスリリース
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出版社	出版日	電子媒体 (05/23 レート)	ページ数
ジュニパーリサーチ社	2011年4月	₤ 1,750 \238,764(税込) ライセンス別価格	128

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エグゼクティブ・サマリー
モバイルコマース:定義とセグメント
NFCとFeliCa技術
NFCとFeliCaの市場成長促進要因と阻害要因
NFC市場の発展
NFC市場予測:チケット発行と決済
NFCの小売マーケティング予測:クーポンとスマートポスター
NFCにおけるARPUの将来性
主要ベンダの評価

Overview

Expert Evaluation of NFC Retail & Payments
NFC ARPU Opportunities Analysed
Three Extensive Forecast Chapters

This board level evaluation of the rapidly developing NFC market delivers the most extensive appraisal of the industry to date. Across three detailed forecast chapters this report provides a strategic blueprint for companies and market planning professionals aiming to maximise on the growing opportunities within NFC retail marketing and NFC mobile payments.

Three Forecast Chapters: Forecast chapter one projects data for NFC mobile payments including the average number of NFC transactions per handset as well as the number of transactions and transaction value, with all data broken down into NFC ticketing and NFC retail payments. The second forecast chapter projects the market for NFC retail marketing, forecasting the number of NFC Coupons and Smart posters downloaded as well as the total fee value. The third forecast chapter forecasts the ARPU opportunity for NFC Ticketing, Retail payments, Mobile Coupons and Smart posters.

Breadth & Depth of Analysis: From tracking key market developments over the past 12 months this report covers 18 significant industry announcements, assessing the relative prospects for NFC and evaluating eight key regions. The report concludes with vendor briefs of 14 players in the market with Juniper’s view of their strengths and strategic development opportunities.

Companies Referenced

7-Eleven, America Movil, American Express, AT&T Mobility, ATM, Avea, Axiata Group Berhad, Bank of America, Barclaycard, Barclays, Best Buy, Bharti, BJ's, BKM (Bankalararasi Kart Merkezi - Interbank Card Center), Bouygues, Broadcom, CHARGE Anywhere, China Unicom, CVS, Deutsche Telekom, DeviceFidelity Inc., Duane Reade, EPC, ETSI, FeliCa, Fundamo, G&D, Garanti Bank, Gemalto, Giesecke & Devrient, Google, GSMA, Gulf Oil, Hess, Ingenico, ISIS, KT Corporation, La Caixa, LG, MasterCard, McDonalds, Meijer's, More Magic, MTS, Nokia, NRJ Mobile, NTT DoCoMo, NXP, Oberthur Technologies, Orange, Proxama, Qtel Group, RIM, Samsung, SFR, Sheetz, Shop-Rite, SK Telecom, SoftBank Mobile, Sony, Telecom Italia, Telefonica, Telekom Austria Group, Telenor, TfL (Transport for London), The Home Depot, Think&Go NFC, Tim Horton's, T-Mobile USA, Twinlinx, Venyon, VeriFone, Verizon Wireless, Visa Inc., Visa Europe, ViVOtech, Vodafone, Watchdata, Wegman, Whataburger, Wireless Dynamics

Key Questions

Key questions the report answers:

How many active NFC users will there be in 2016?
Which region will show the most growth over the forecast period?
What are the ARPU opportunities associated with NFC?
How will transaction volumes change over the next five years?
Which will be the leading regions for NFC coupons and smart posters?
How many NFC mobile tickets will be purchased over the next five years?

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

詳細ファイル(PDF)

Executive Summary

1. Mobile Commerce: Definition and Segments

1.1 Introduction
Figure 1.1: Verizon Wireless Network Challenges
1 - 2 NFC’s Pivotal Role in Shopping
Figure 1 - 2: The Mobile Device in the Retail Customer Journey
1.3 Mobile Commerce Market Segments
Figure 1.3: Mobile Commerce Market Segmentation
1.4 Mobile Payment Segments
1.4.1 Digital & Physical Goods (Remote Payment)
1.4.2 Contactless NFC (POS or Proximity Payment)
1.4.3 Mobile Money Person to Person Transfer (Remote Payment)

2. NFC & FeliCa Technology

2.1 Introduction
2.2. Near Field Communication (NFC)
2.2.1 Technology
Figure 2.1: Typical NFC Implementation
2.2.2 NFC Forum Interview
Figure 2.2: NFC in the Automotive Industry
Figure 2.3: Oyster Card Using MIFARE Technology
Figure 2.4: Uses of NFC
Figure 2.5: N Mark Logo
2.2.3 Security
2.2.4 NFC in the Device
i. Embedded
ii. SIM
2.2.5 Interim NFC Form Factor Solutions
Figure 2.6: Integration Phase Comparison - NFC and Mobile Broadband
i. NFC Stickers
Figure 2.7: Twinlinx My-Max NFC Sticker
ii. NFC SD Card
Figure 2.8: Giesecke & Devrient NFC SD Card
Figure 2.9: DeviceFidelity In2Pay microSD NFC Solution
iii. NFC Case or Sleeve for Smartphones
Figure 2.10: NFC Case for iPhone
iv. SIM Card Adaptations
v. NFC POS Merchant Payment Device Adaptations
Figure 2.11: VeriFone PAYware Mobile Enterprise
2.3 FeliCa
2.3.1 Introduction
2.3.2 Standards & Specification
Figure 2.1 - 2: Sony FeliCa IC Card and Reader/Writer
2.3.3 Security
Figure 2.13: Sony FeliCa Security Features
Figure 2.14: FeliCa Networks Platform Management
2.3.4 Uses
Figure 2.15: Uses of FeliCa
2.3.5 Future FeliCa Roadmap
Figure 2.16: FeliCa to Global Mobile NFC Roadmap

3. NFC & FeliCa Drivers and Constraint

3.1 Summary
Figure 3.1: NFC Drivers and Constraints
3.2 NFC Drivers
3.2.1. Customer Response
3.2.2 Transaction Efficiency & Growth
3.2.3 Infrastructure Availability
3.2.4 MNO Plans and Successes
3.2.5 Future Enhancements
3.2.6 Widespread NFC Applications
3.2.7 Queue Busting
3.2.8 One to One Marketing
3.2.9 Smartphone Growth
3.3 Constraints
3.3.1 Device Availability
3.3.2 Business Model
Figure 3.2: NFC Ecosystem Top Level View
3.3.3 Service Complexity and Management
Figure 3.3: NFC Ecosystem Detailed View
3.3.4. Ecosystem Incentivisation
3.3.5 POS Acceptance
3.3.6 POS Reader Capability
3.3.7 User Support
3.3.8 Regulatory Hurdles

4. NFC Market Developments

4.1 Introduction
4.2 Mobile Operators
4.2.1 GSMA
4.2.2 ISIS (USA)
4.2.3 France Telecom Orange
i. Orange Strategy
ii. Cityzi Pilot
Figure 4.1: Cityzi Mobile Ticketing
4.2.4 Telefonica, Visa & La Caixa (Spain)
Figure 4.2: Sitges Mobile Shopping
4.2.5 Osaifu-keitai (Japan)
i. FeliCa Services
Figure 4.3: Osaifu-Keitai Service Concept
ii. NTT DOCOMO and KT
4.2.6 MasterCard, Gemalto, Garanti Bank and Avea (Turkey)
54
4.2.7 Orange, Telefonica and Vodafone
4.2.8 Deutsche Telekom (Germany)
4.3 Handset Vendors
4.3.1 Google
4.3.2 RIM
4.3.3 Samsung
Figure 4.4: Samsung Galaxy SII
4.3.4 Further Vendors
4.4 POS Vendors
4.4.1 Ingenico
Figure 4.5: Ingenico Tellium Pass Plus NFC POS Terminal
4.4.2 VeriFone
Figure 4.6: VeriFone VX Evolution POS Device
4.5 Banks & Financial Institutions
4.5.1 Bank of America
Figure 4.7: Bank of America NFC BlackBerry
4.5.2 Barclaycard & Orange (UK)
4.5.3 Visa Europe & Wireless Dynamics
Figure 4.8: Wireless Dynamics iCarte Accessory for iPhones
4.6 Retailers & Merchants
4.6.1 McDonald’s
4.6.2 ATM & Telecom Italia (Italy)
4.7 Regional Prospects
Figure 4.9: Market Development Prospects 2011 - 2012 for 8 Key Regions

5. NFC Market Forecasts: Ticketing and Payments

5.1 Introduction
5.1.1 NFC Payments
5.1 - 2 New NFC Retail Marketing Opportunities
5.2 Methodology
5.2.1 Approach and Assumptions
Figure 5.1: NFC Market Forecast Methodology
5.2.2 Main Changes Since Previous Forecast
5.3 Mobile Handset Forecast
Figure 5.2: Mobile Handset Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 5.1: Mobile Handset Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
5.4 NFC Smartphones Forecast
Table 5.2: NFC Commercial Launches by Country 2011 - 2012
Figure 5.3: NFC Smartphones (% of Total Handsets) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 5.3: NFC Smartphones (% of Total Handsets) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Figure 5.4: NFC Smartphones (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 5.4: NFC Smartphones (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
5.5 NFC Featurephones & Low Cost Handsets Forecast
Figure 5.5: NFC Featurephones & Low Cost Handsets (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 5.5: NFC Featurephones & Low Cost Handsets (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
5.6 Total Native NFC Handsets
Figure 5.6: Total NFC Handsets (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 5.5: NFC Featurephones & Low Cost Handsets (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Figure 5.6: Total NFC Handsets (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 5.6: NFC Handsets (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
5.7 Interim NFC Solutions Forecast
Figure 5.7: Total Number of Mobile Handsets (m) With Interim NFC Capability Split by 8 Key Regions 2011- 2016
Table 5.7: Total Number of Mobile Handsets (m) With Interim NFC Capability Split by 8
Key Regions 2011 - 2016
5.8 NFC Native Handsets& Interim Solutions
Figure 5.8: Global Comparison: NFC Handsets vs. Interim Solutions (m) 2011- 2016
Table 5.8 Global Comparison: NFC Handsets vs. Interim Solutions (m) 2011 - 2016
5.9 NFC Enabled Devices in Use
Figure 5.9: Percentage of Native NFC Handsets in Use Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 5.9: Percentage of Native NFC Handsets in Use Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Figure 5.10: Native NFC Handsets in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 5.10: Native NFC Handsets in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Figure 5.11: NFC Handsets in Use as % of All Mobile Handsets Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 5.11: NFC Handsets in Use as % of All Mobile Handsets Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Figure 5.1 - 2: NFC Handsets & Interim Solutions in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 5.1 - 2: NFC Handsets & Interim Solutions in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
5.10 NFC Mobile Ticketing Transactions Traffic
5.10.1 Average Number of NFC Ticketing Transactions
Figure 5.13: Average Number of NFC Ticketing Transactions per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 5.13: Average Number of NFC Ticketing Transactions per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
5.10.2 Total Number of NFC Ticketing Transactions
Figure 5.14: Total Number of NFC Ticketing Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 5.14: Total Number of NFC Ticketing Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
5.11 NFC Ticketing Transaction Value
Figure 5.15: Average Value of NFC Ticket Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 5.15: Average Value of NFC Ticket Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Figure 5.16: Total Value of NFC Ticketing Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 5.16: Total Value of NFC Ticketing Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
5.1 - 2 NFC Retail Payments Transaction Traffic
5.1 - 2.1 Average Number of NFC Retail Payments Transactions
Figure 5.17: Average Number of NFC Retail Payments Transactions per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 5.17: Average Number of NFC Retail Payments Transactions per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
5.1 - 2.2 Total Number of NFC Retail Payments Transactions
Figure 5.18: Total Number of NFC Retail Payments Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 5.18: Total Number of NFC Retail Payments Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
5.13 NFC Retail Payments Transaction Value
Figure 5.19: Average Value of NFC Retail Payments Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 5.19: Average Value of NFC Retail Payments Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Figure 5.20: Total Value of NFC Retail Payments Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 5.20: Total Value of NFC Retail Payments Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
5.14 NFC Total Ticketing and Retail Transaction Traffic
Figure 5.21: Total Number of NFC Ticketing and Retail Payments Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 5.21: Total Number of NFC Ticketing and Retail Payments Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
5.15 NFC Total Ticketing and Retail Payments Transaction Value
Figure 5.22: Total NFC Ticketing and Retail Payments Transaction Value ($m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 5.22: Total NFC Ticketing and Retail Payments Transaction Value ($m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016

6. NFC Retail Marketing Forecasts: Coupons & Smart Posters

6.1 NFC as a Retail Device
Figure 6.1: NFC Mobile Coupon
Figure 6.2: Suipo Smart Poster
6.2 NFC Mobile Coupons Download Traffic
Figure 6.3: Total Number of NFC Mobile Coupons Downloaded (m) Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 6.1: Total Number of NFC Mobile Coupons Downloaded (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
6.3 NFC Mobile Coupons Total Fee Value
Figure 6.4: NFC Mobile Coupons Total Fee Value ($m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 6.2: NFC Mobile Coupons Total Fee Value ($m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
6.4 NFC Smart Poster Download Traffic
Figure 6.5: Total Number of NFC Smart Poster Downloads (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 6.3: Total Number of NFC Smart Poster Downloads (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
6.5 NFC Smart Posters Total Fee Value
Figure 6.6: NFC Smart Posters Total Fee Value ($m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 6.4: NFC Smart Posters Total Fee Value ($m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016

7. NFC ARPU Opportunity

7.1.1 NFC Mobile Ticketing Interchange Fee ARPU
Table 7.1: NFC Ticketing Transaction Interchange Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Figure 7.1: NFC Ticketing Transaction Interchange Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
7.1 - 2 NFC Retail Payment Interchange Fee ARPU
Figure 7.2: NFC Retail Payment Transaction Interchange Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 7.2: NFC Retail Payment Transaction Interchange Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 . 2016
7.2 NFC Retail Marketing
7.2.1 NFC Mobile Coupon Fee ARPU Opportunity
Figure 7.3: NFC Mobile Coupons Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 7.3: NFC Mobile Coupons Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
7.2.2 NFC Smart Posters Fee ARPU Opportunity
Figure 7.4: NFC Smart Posters Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
Table 7.4: NFC Smart Posters Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
7.4 NFC ARPU Opportunity Comparison
Figure 7.5: NFC Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Coupons, Smart Posters, Ticketing, Retail Payments 2011 - 2016
Table 7.5: NFC Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Coupons, Smart Posters, Ticketing, Retail Payments 2011 - 2016

8. Appraisals of Selected Vendors

8.1 Introduction
8.2 Broadcom
Figure 8.1: Topaz Tags
8.3 Fundamo
8.4 Gemalto
8.5 Giesecke & Devrient
8.6 More Magic
8.7 NokiaFigure 8.2: Nokia 2010 Device Volumes by Region (millions)
8.8 NXP
8.9 Oberthur Technologies
8.10 Proxama
8.11 Research in Motion (RIM)
8.1 - 2 Samsung
8.13 Think&Go NFC
8.14 VeriFone
8.15 ViVOtech

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同社・類似レポート一覧

プレスリリース

2014年にはスマートフォンの5台に1台はNFC機能付きになるだろう

英国ハンプシャー州、2011年4月14日
英国調査会社ジュニパーリサーチ社の調査レポート「NFC小売マーケティングとモバイル決済市場調査:2016年までの予測と戦略 ― NFC Retail Marketing & Mobile Payments:Markets, Forecasts & Strategies 2011-2016」は、今後3年間でNFCサービスが急速に普及し、2014年には世界のスマートフォンの少なくとも5台に1台に非接触近距離通信機能が搭載されるだろうと報告している。この成長は、短期的には、2012年末までに20ヶ国の採用先進国で、モバイルネットワーク事業者がサービスを開始することで促進されるとジュニパーリサーチ社は分析している。

NFCチップセットを搭載する端末メーカーがますます増加し、NFCによる支払いや、クーポンやスマートポスターによる小売りマーケティング機能は、西欧や北米などの先進地域のスマートフォンユーザーの間では当たり前になるだろう。

この調査レポートの著者であるジュニパーリサーチ社のアナリストHoward Wilcox氏は、「いまだ障害は残っているものの、携帯事業者の成功と端末ベンダの発表に促進されて、近距離通信の将来は明るいだろう。例えばフランスのオペレータは、今年100万台のNFCデバイスの販売を予測している」と述べている。

モバイル商取引機能を重視しているGoogleやフランステレコムオレンジ、テレフォニカなどの主要企業は、NFCに非常に注目している。この調査レポートは、大きな収益機会はあるものの、NFCサービスがクリティカルマスに達する前にビジネスモデルを開発しなければならないとも指摘している。

この調査レポートは、NFCチケットと小売り支払いの両方の、ユーザ数、取引数、金額という主要な市場パラメータのすべての6年間の予測を行っている。クーポンやスマートポスターなどの付加価値的な小売りマーケティングサービスのビジネスチャンスを解説し、市場に影響を与える促進要因と阻害要因を指摘し、14社のベンダの現状を追跡調査している。

上記以外の調査結果は、下記の通りである。

北米は、2014年にすべてのNFCスマートフォンの半分を占め、西欧がそれに続く
銀行、携帯電話会社、交通関連企業、店舗など多くの産業がかかわり、サービスが複雑になっていることはNFCの登場における課題である

[プレスリリース原文]
1 in 5 Smartphones will have NFC by 2014, Spurred by Recent Breakthroughs: New Juniper Research Report

Hampshire, UK: 14th April 2011 ? New market forecasts from Juniper Research show rapid adoption of NFC services over the next 3 years, with at least 1 in 5 smartphones worldwide having NFC contactless functionality. Worldwide, Juniper forecasts almost 300 million NFC capable smartphones by 2014. Juniper’s analysis shows that this growth will be driven in the short term by mobile network operators launching services in 20 early adopting countries before the end of 2012.

With more and more handset vendors integrating NFC chipsets, the new Juniper Research report forecasts that NFC payments and retail marketing capability via coupons and smart posters will become common amongst smartphone users in Western Europe, North America and other developed regions.

NFC Retail Marketing & Mobile Payments Report author Howard Wilcox gave more details behind the report’s conclusions: "Juniper’s market analysis highlighted that, although there are still hurdles ahead, NFC prospects have been boosted by the succession of mobile operator and device vendor announcements. France is a case in point where operators expect to sell one million NFC devices this year."

NFC is attracting the attention of all the major players such as Google, France Telecom Orange and Telefonica who see mobile commerce capability as vital. Juniper’s report pinpoints the main revenue opportunities but warns that business model structures still require development before NFC services will achieve critical mass.

Juniper’s new report contains comprehensive six year forecasts for all the key market parameters including users, transactions and values for both NFC ticketing and retail payments. It also breaks out the opportunities for value added retail marketing services through coupons and smart posters. Additionally the report pinpoints the drivers and constraints impacting the market, and tracks the status of 14 vendors addressing the market.

Further findings include:

North America will account for half of all NFC smartphones in 2014, followed by Western Europe.
With many entities such as banks, mobile operators, transport companies and merchants involved, service complexity is a challenge in each NFC rollout.