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5G市場戦略:消費者&エンタープライズ向け市場機会&予測 2018-2025年

5G Market Strategies

Consumer & Enterprise Opportunities & Forecasts 2018-2025

 

出版社 出版年月電子版価格 ページ数
Juniper Research
ジュニパーリサーチ社
2018年8月GBP4,090
企業ライセンス(PDF+Excel)
120

「Deep Dive Strategy & Competition」「Deep Dive Data & Forecasting」のみの購入も可能です。詳しくはお問合せ下さい。

サマリー

この調査レポートは、5Gの戦略を調査し、周波数の獲得や5Gの技術開発等の投資に関するJuniper Researchの見解を掲載しています。

下記の5G部門別に分析を掲載しています。

  • 消費者向け
  • 商業向け
    • エンタープライズモバイルブロードバンド
  • 自動車
  • スマートホーム
  • スマートシティ
  • 医療
  • ARとVR

Overview

Juniper’s latest 5G Market Strategies research provides insights on the investment in 5G technologies, including spectrum acquisition and 5G technology development. It includes strategic recommendations for market stakeholders, aligned with 6-year forecasts for 5G adoption, including the IoT and automotive sectors, for the period 2019-2025.

The research includes in-depth analysis of pricing strategies for 5G verticals and forecasts for data traffic per 5G connection across consumer connections and key IoT verticals.

5G sector coverage and market analysis provided for:

  • Consumer Applications
  • Commercial Applications
    • Enterprise Mobile Broadband
    • Automotive
    • Smart Homes
    • Smart Cities
    • Healthcare
    • Augmented Reality & Virtual Reality

This research suite includes:

  • Deep Dive Strategy & Competition (PDF)
  • 6-Year Deep Dive Data & Forecasting (PDF)
  • Executive Summary & Core Findings (PDF)
  • 12 months' access to harvest online data platform

Key Features

  • Spectrum Auction & Development Spend Analysis: Strategic analysis of investment in development of 5G technologies and an evaluation of completed and future spectrum auctions for key countries, including:
    • China
    • Denmark
    • France
    • Germany
    • India
    • Italy
    • Netherlands
    • Romania
    • South Korea
    • Spain
    • Sweden
    • UK
    • US
  • Operator 5G Positioning Index: In-depth assessment of over 50 leading operators, displaying the top 25 in the Juniper Positioning Index. Profiles for the top 10 ‘most promising’ 5G operators are also included.
  • Benchmark Industry Forecasts: Provided for adoption, connections, operator billed revenue and data attributable to 5G connections for 8 global regions and key countries including:
    • Canada
    • China
    • Germany
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • UK
    • US
  • Sector Analysis: An evaluation of ARPU/ARPC strategies, key market drivers, technological challenges and strategic recommendations for stakeholders across key market verticals, including :
    • Automotive
    • Digital Health Wearables
    • Mobile Broadband
    • Smart Cities
    • Smart Homes
    • Augmented Reality & Virtual Reality
  • Juniper Leaderboard: Key player capability and capacity assessment of 13 5G technology vendors.
  • Interviews with leading 5G service providers, including:
    • Ciena
    • CommScope
    • Ericsson
    • Evolved Intelligence
    • Mavenir Systems
    • Nokia
    • ZTE

Companies Referenced

Interviewed: Ciena, CommScope, Ericsson, Evolved Intelligence, Mavenir, Nokia Networks, Syniverse, ZTE.
 
Profiled: CBNL, Ciena, Cisco Systems, CommScope, Ericsson, Fujitsu, Huawei, Intel, Mavenir, NEC, Nokia Networks, Qualcomm, Samsung, Spirent, Syniverse, ZTE.
 
Included in 5G Operator Positioning Index: AT&T, China Mobile, China Unicom, Deutsche Telekom, EE, Etisalat, KDDI, KT Telecom, LG U+, Megafon, NTT DOCOMO, Ooredoo, Orange, SK Telecom, Softbank, Sprint, Telefonica, Tele2, Telenor, Telia, Telkomsel, Verizon, Vodafone.
 
Mentioned: 3GPP, 5G Introduction Group, 5G Joint Activity Group, 5G Open Partner Programme, 5G Open Trial Specification Alliance, 5G PPP (5G Public Private Partnership), 5G Status Indicator Group, 5G Technology Forum, 5GIC (5G Innovation Centre, University of Surrey), 5GMF Trial Promotion Group, Agcom (Autorita per le Garanzie nelle Comunicazioni), Aircel, Alcatel-Lucent , Alphabet, Amazon, America Movil, ANCOM (National Authority for Management and Regulation in Communications), Anritsu, Apple, ARCEP (Autorite de Regulation des Communications Electroniques et des Postes), Arquiva, Asus, Atos, Audi, Avantel, Aviat, B-COM, Bharti Airtel, Biotelemetry, BMW, Boeing, Bouygues Telecom, BT, Bundesnetzagentur, Cable Exchange, Cadillac, CenturyLink, China Telecom, CHT, Cohda Wireless, Colt, Commsignia, Continental, ConVergence Technologies, DEA (Danish Energy Agency), Dell EMC, Delphi, DLink, EasTone, EFSI (European Fund for Strategic Investments), European Investment Bank, Expresso Telecoms Group, FCC (Federal Communications Commission), Ficosa-Panasonic, First Communications, France Telecom, Future Networks and Network Slicing Group, Gainspeed, Gemalto, Google, GSMA, Hitachi, HMD Global, HTC, IBM, Idea Cellular, IEEE, Ignite Forum, Inseego, InterCEL, ITU, Juniper Networks, Kathrein, Keysight Technologies, KPN, KT Corporation, KVH, Lear, LG Electronics, LG Innotek, Mercedes-Benz, MIC (Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications), Microsoft, MIIT (Ministry of Industry and Information Technology), MINETAD (Ministerio de Energia, Turismo y Agenda Digital), Mitsubishi, Mobile TeleSystems, Mobily, MSIT (Ministry of Science and ICT), MTN, MTS, NetComm Wireless, NETGEAR, Nova Telecom, Novatel Wireless, Nuevatel, Obayashi, Ofcom, Oi, ONAPP, OnePlus, Open Fiber, Open Hyperscale Lab, OPPO, Packet Design, Panasonic, PTS (Post and Telecom Authority), Quectel, Red Hat, Sasken, Savari, Scartel, SFR, Sharp, Sierra Wireless, Singtel, Sistema, Sonim, Sony, Spreadtrum, STC, StraightPath, Swisscom, Telit, Telstra, Telus, Tesla, Three, Thundersoft, TIM, T-Mobile, TRAI (Telecom Regulatory Authority of India), Valeo, Vertical M2M, VimpelCom, Viptela, Virtial Open Systems, Vivo, VMWare, Vodacom, WHOOP, Wind, Windstream, Wingtech, Winncom, WNC, Xiaomi, Zain

Data & Interactive Forecast

Juniper’s latest 5G Market Strategies forecast suite includes:

  • 7 year benchmark forecasts for key metrics by 8 key regions and 7 country level splits including:
    • Canada
    • China
    • Germany
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • UK
    • US
  • 5G Connections, ARPC and Operator Billed Service Revenue, split by segment:
    • Consumer Applications
    • Commercial Applications
  • 5G Connections, ARPC and Operator Billed Service Revenue, split by key verticals:
    • Automotive
    • Mobile Broadband
    • Smart Cities
    • Smart Homes
    • Augmented Reality & Virtual Reality
    • Digital Health Wearables
  • Access to the full set of forecast data of 115 tables and over 12,000 datapoints.
  • Interactive Excel Scenario tool allowing users the ability to manipulate Juniper’s data for 10 different metrics.

Juniper Research’s highly granular Interactive Excels enable clients to manipulate Juniper’s forecast data and charts to test their own assumptions using the Interactive Scenario Tool; and compare select markets side by side in customised charts and tables. IFxls greatly increase clients’ ability to both understand a particular market and to integrate their own views into the model.



目次

Table of Contents
 
1. Deep Dive Strategy & Competition

1. 5G: Market Dynamics

1.1 Market Status & Introduction . 6
1.1.1 Current Market Status . 6
Figure 1.1: Regional Distribution of Global Mobile 5G Active SIM Connections in
2019 (%). 6
1.1.2 The 5G Standard - Key Requisites . 7
Table 1.2: Initial 5G Requisites & Anticipated Network Conditions . 7
1.1.3 Networking Architecture . 8
Figure 1.3: User & Control Plane Deployments for Services over LTE & 5G
Networks - Option 3a of R15 3GPP . 8
1.2 The Future of 5G . 10
Figure 1.4: 5G Phased Evolution Model: Investment vs Time . 10

2. 5G Spectrum Analysis & Operator Strategies

2.1 5G R&D Investments: Analysis . 13
2.1.1 5G: R&D (Research & Development) Investments 2018-2023 13
Figure 2.1: Cumulative 5G Research & Development Investments ($m) 2018 . 14
2.2 5G Spectrum Allocation & Cost Analysis . 14
2.2.1 4G Spectrum Costs Analysis . 15
Table 2.2: 4G Spectrum Auction Cost Analysis: Selected Markets . 15
2.2.2 5G Spectrum Bands. 15
Table 2.3: Notable Spectrum Allocation & Regional Spectrum Update. 16
2.2.3 5G Spectrum Auction Plans & Update . 17
2.2.4 5G Spectrum Cost Analysis: Juniper Estimates . 18
Introduction . 18
Table 2.4: Actual & Estimated 5G Spectrum Auctions Costs ($m) & Price Per MHz
Per Individual ($) for Selected Markets by 2022 . 19
Figure 2.5: Estimated 5G Spectrum Auctions Costs ($m) & Price per MHz per
Individual ($) for Selected Markets by 2022 . 19
5G Auction in India: Scenario Analysis . 20
Table 2.6: India’s 2019 Spectrum Auction - Scenario 1 . 20
Table 2.7: India’s 2019 Spectrum - Scenario 2 . 21
Table 2.8: Indian’s 2019 Spectrum Auction - Scenario 3 . 21
Table 2.9: India’s 2020 Spectrum Auction - Scenario 4 . 22
Global 5G Launches: Future Outlook . 22
2.3 5G Business Models & Ensuring ROI (Return on Investment) . 22
2.3.1 Opportunities in the IoT (Internet of Things) . 23
Figure 2.10: Total Connected IoT Units (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2018-2023 . 24
2.3.2 5G-enabled New Vertical Market Applications . 25
Figure 2.11: Strategy Quadrant: 5G & the IoT . 25
2.3.3 Operator Monetisation Strategies . 25
Future Outlook . 26
2.3.4 Network Sharing Key to 5G ROI . 27
Figure 2.12: Announcements of Network Sharing Agreements 2013-2017 . 27
2.4 5G Operator Analysis & Positioning Index . 28
2.4.1 Introduction & Positioning Index . 28
Table 2.13: 5G Operators: Juniper Operator Positioning Index Scoring Criteria . 28
Figure 2.14: Juniper 5G Operator Positioning Index - The Top 25 Operators . 29
2.4.2 Operator Evaluation - The Top 10 Most Promising 5 GOperators . 30

3. 5G Sector Analysis & Strategic Recommendations

3.1 Sector Usage Analysis . 36
3.1.1 5G IoT Sector Data Traffic Analysis . 36
Figure 3.1: Proportional Sector Split of Mobile Data Traffic Carried Over 5G
Networks (PB), Split by 5 IoT Sectors in 2025 - 543 PB . 36
3.1.2 5G Operator Billed Revenue Per Gigabyte . 37
Figure 3.2: Average Operator Billed Revenues per GB of 5G ($), Split by 7 Select
5G IoT Segements 2019-2025 . 37
Figure 3.3: Total Number of Cellular IoT Smart City SIMs in 2023 (m) Split by
Wireless Technology - 40.1 million . 37
3.2 Sector Analysis: 5G Automotive . 38
3.2.1 Automotive 5G Technological Requirements . 38
3.2.2 5G Automotive: Strategic Recommedations . 39
Figure 3.4: 5G Automotive Forecasts ARPC & Total Connectivity Enablement
Revenues for Select Regions 2019-2025 . 41
3.3 Sector Analysis: 5G Digital Health . 41
3.3.1 The Demand for 5G in the Health Sector . 41
3.3.2 5G Digital Health: Strategic Recommendations . 43
Table 3.5: Healthcare Problems & Digital Solutions . 44
3.4 Sector Analysis: 5G Smart Cities . 45
3.4.1 5G Smart Cities: Strategic Recommendations . 46
3.5 Sector Analysis: 5G Smart Homes . 47
3.5.1 5G Smart Homes: Strategic Recommendations . 47
Figure 3.6: 5G Smart City Connection ARPC ($) Split by 8 Key Regions &
Globally 2019-2025 . 49
3.6 Sector Analysis: 5G AR & VR . 49
3.6.1 5G AR & VR Strategic Recommendations . 49
3.7 Sector Analysis: 5G Mobile Broadband . 51
3.7.1 5G Mobile Broadband: Strategic Recommendations . 52
Figure 3.7: Total Mobile 5G Broadband Data Traffic Carried Over 5G Networks
(PB), Split by Consumer & Enterprise Services 2019 & 2025 . 53
Figure 3.8: Global 5G Mobile Broadband ARPC, Split by Consumer and
Enterprise Services 2019-2025 . 54

4. 5G: The Competitive Landscape & Leaderboard

4.1 Introduction . 56
4.2 Vendor Analysis . 56
4.2.1 Vendor Assessment Criteria . 56
Table 4.1: 5G Vendor Capability Assessement Criteria . 57
Figure 4.2: Juniper Leaderboard for 5G Vendors . 58
Table 4.3: Juniper Heatmap Results - 5G Network Vendors . 59
4.2.2 5G Network Vendor Analysis . 60
Established Leaders . 60
Leading Challengers. 61
Disruptors & Emulators . 62
4.3 Limitations & Interpretations . 63
4.4 5G Movers & Shakers . 64
4.5 5G Network Vendor Profiles . 66
4.5.1 Ciena . 66
Corporate . 66
Table 4.4: Select Ciena Aquisitions . 66
Geographical Spread. 66
Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships . 66
High Level View of Offerings . 67
Figure 4.5: Blue Planet’s OSS/BSS Ecosystem . 67
Juniper View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities . 67
4.5.2 CBNL . 68
Corporate . 68
Geographic Spread . 68
Key Clients & Strategic Partners . 68
High Level View of Offerings . 69
Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities . 69
4.5.3 Cisco Systems . 69
Corporate . 69
Table 4.6: Cisco Financial Performance Snapshot ($bn) 2016-2017 . 70
Geographical Spread . 70
Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships . 70
High Level View of Offerings . 71
Figure 4.7: Cisco’s NFV & SDN Orchestration . 71
Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities . 72
4.5.4 CommScope . 72
Corporate . 72
Table 4.8: CommScope Financial Performance Snapshot ($m) 2015-2017 . 72
Geographical Spread . 73
Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships . 73
High Level View of Offerings . 73
Juniper View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities . 74
4.5.5 Ericsson . 74
Corporate . 74
Figure 4.9: Ericsson Sales, Split by Region & Segment 2017 ($m) . 75
Geographic Spread . 75
Table 4.10: Ericsson Financial Performance Snapshot ($m) 2015-2017 . 75
Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships . 75
High Level View of Offerings . 76
Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities . 77
4.5.6 Fujitsu . 77
Corporate . 77
Table 4.11: Fujitsu Financial Performance Snapshot ($m) 2015-2017. 77
Geographic Spread . 78
Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships . 78
High Level View of Offerings . 78
Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities . 79
4.5.7 Huawei . 79
Corporate . 79
Table 4.12: Huawei Financial Performance Snapshot ($m) 2015-2017 . 79
Geographical Spread. 79
Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships . 80
High Level View of Offerings . 80
Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities . 81
4.5.8 Intel . 81
Corporate . 81
Table 4.13: Intel Financial Performance Snapshot ($bn) 2015-2017 . 81
Geographical Spread. 81
Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships . 82
High Level View of Offerings . 82
Juniper View: Key Strengths & Strategic Partnerships . 83
4.5.9 Mavenir . 83
Corporate . 83
Geographical Spread . 83
Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships . 84
High Level View of Offerings . 84
Figure 4.14: Select Elements of the Mavenir CloudRange Solution . 84
Juniper View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities . 84
4.5.10 NEC . 85
Corporate . 85
Table 4.15: NEC Financial Performance Snapshot ($m) 2015-2017 . 85
Geographical Spread . 85
Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships . 85
High Level View of Offerings . 86
Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities . 86
4.5.11 Nokia Networks . 87
i. Corporate . 87
Table 4.16: Nokia Networks Financial Performance Snapshot ($m) 2016-2017 . 87
i. Geographical Spread . 87
ii. Key Clients & Strategic Partners . 87
iii. High Level View of Offerings . 88
iv. Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities . 89
4.5.12 Qualcomm . 89
Corporate . 89
Table 4.17: Qualcomm Financial Performance Snapshot ($m) 2015-2017 . 89
Geographic Spread . 89
Key Clients & Partnerships . 89
High Level View of Offerings . 90
Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities . 91
4.5.13 Samsung Networks . 91
Corporate . 91
Table 4.18: Samsung Financial Performance Snapshot ($m) 2016-2017 . 91
i. Geographic Spread . 92
ii. Key Clients & Partnerships . 92
iii. High Level View of Offerings . 92
iv. Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities . 93
4.5.14 Syniverse . 93
Corporate . 93
Table 4.19: Syniverse Selected Financial Information ($m) 2015-2017 . 94
Geographical Spread. 94
Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships . 94
High Level View of Offerings . 94
Juniper View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities . 95
4.5.15 ZTE . 95
Corporate . 95
Table 4.20: ZTE Financial Performance Snapshot ($m) 2016-2017 . 95
ii. Geographic Spread . 96
iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships . 96
iv. High Level View of Offerings . 96
v. Juniper’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities . 97

2. Deep Dive Data & Forecasting

1. The Future of 5G Networks

1.1 Market Status & Introduction . 4
1.1.1 Current Market Status . 4
Figure 1.1: Regional Distribution of Global Mobile 5G Active SIM Connections in
2019 (%). 4
1.1.2 The 5G Standard - Key Requisites . 5
Table 1.2: Initial 5G Requisites & Anticipated Network Conditions . 5
1.2 Addressable Market: Regional Analysis. 6
1.2.1 Total Mobile Active SIM Connections . 6
Figure & Table 1.3: Mobile Active SIM Connection Base (m) Split by 8 Key
Regions 2018-2023 . 6
1.2.2 Active 5G Connections. 7
Figure & Table 1.4: Global Mobile 5G Active SIM Connections (m) Split by 8 Key
Regions 2019-2015 . 7

2. 5G Market Forecasts: Summary & Key Takeaways

2.1 Methodology & Assumptions . 9
2.1.1 Introduction . 9a
2.1.2 Pricing Model Assumptions . 9
Figure 2.1: 5G User & Revenues Forecast Methodology . 11
2.2 Forecast Summary. 12
2.2.1 Total 5G Operator Billed Revenues . 12
Figure & Table 2.2: Total Global 5G Operator Billed Revenue ($m) Split by 8 Key
Regions 2019-2025 . 12
2.2.2 Global Mobile 5G Connections . 13
Figure & Table 2.3: Global Mobile Enterprise 5G Active Connections, Split by
Consumer & Commercial 5G Connections (m) 2019-2025 . 13
2.2.3 Global Operator Billed 5G Revenues . 14
Figure & Table 2.4: Total Global 5G Operator Billed Revenue, Split by Consumer
& Commercial ($m) 2019-2025 . 14

3. 5G IoT Commercial Sector Forecasts & Takeaways

3.1 5G Sector Analysis . 16
3.1.1 Methodology . 16
i. Pricing Model Assumptions . 16
Figure 3.1: 5G Sector Analysis Forecast Methodology . 17
3.2 5G Sector Analysis . 18
3.2.1 5G Connections Forecast . 18
Figure & Table 3.2: Total Number of 5G Connections (m) Split by 6 IoT Sectors
2019-2025 . 18
3.2.2 5G Commercial IoT & Automotive ARPC . 19
Figure & Table 3.3: 5G Commercial IoT & Automotive ARPC ($) Split by 6 IoT
Segments 2019-2025 . 19
3.2.3 5G Commercial IoT & Automotive Revenue Forecast . 20
Figure & Table 3.4: Total Operator Billed 5G Commercial IoT & Automotive
Revenues ($m) Split by 6 IoT Sectors 2019-2025 . 20
3.2.4 Total Data Attributable to 5G IoT Connections . 21
Figure & Table 3.5: Total Mobile Data Traffic Carried Over 5G Networks (PB) Split
by 8 Key Regions 2019-2025 . 21
3.2.5 5G Forecast Sector Analysis . 22
i. 5G Automotive . 22
ii. Enterprise 5G Broadband . 22
iii. 5G Smart Cities . 22
iv. 5G Smart Homes . 23
v. 5G Digital Health Wearables . 23
vi. 5G AR & VR . 23TS  33

 

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