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この調査レポートは、LTEの有望なビジネスモデルについて、戦略的評価を行っています。

主な掲載内容 (目次より抜粋)

• LTE市場動向
• LTE事業者動向
• LTE加入者数予測
• LTEのビジネスモデル：サービス価格予測
• シナリオ別LTEのビジネスモデル
• シナリオ比較と結論
• 周波数コストとCAPEX分析

Overview

• 88 Forecast Tables
• Scenario-Based Market Projections
• Expert Analysis of LTE Business Models

The second of two LTE reports, this renewed study provides a strategic evaluation of the full range of prospective business models employed for the 4G revenue generation:

Unrivalled insight into the current and projected LTE market. The report delivers a full suite of market data based on current and forcasted LTE subscriber numbers for both consumers and enterprises. Service pricing is calculated according to four types of business models for maximum coverage of the prospective market:

• Premium Tier
• Top Tier
• Mid Tier
• Low Tier

Scenario analysis of service revenues and ARPU under three scenarios. Each scenario offers unmitigated analysis of LTE usage and pricing: 

• Average Scenario
• Power Scenario
• Mid-Low Scenario

Cutting edge evaluation of spectrum costs and Capex. An in-depth costing model is provided for players (e.g. mobile operators) alongside an exhaustive deliberation of the two core challenges confronting MNOs: rising Opex and Capex.

Market Status & Direction. The key market drivers and constraints are discussed in addition to an assessment of operator deployments i.e. trial, commercial and planned networks.

Additional Key Features

Usage Adoption Scenarios enable readers to identify the essential priorities for service providers, in order to optimise revenues.

A Detailed Breakdown of the LTE Market Ecosystem illustrates the impact of LTE on the telecom industry on the whole and the opportunities found therein.

17 LTE commercially launched networks are profiled and assessed by their various stages of development within the 4G industry, drawn from a variety of world regions. 

Companies Profiled

ADC, Alcatel-Lucent, Aricent, AT & T Mobility, Bytemobile, Cambridge Broadband Networks, Cambridge Consultants, China Mobile, Cognovo, Comptel, Empirix, Ericsson, Etisalat, France Telecom Orange, Funambol, Huawei, InfiNet Wireless, SingTel, Kineto Wireless, MACH, MetroPCS, Motorola, Nimbuzz, Nokia Siemens Networks, NTT DoCoMo, Picochip, Samsung, Syniverse, Telecom Italia, TeliaSonera, Telstra, TM Forum, Ucell, UMTS Forum, Verizon Wireless, VivaCell-MTS, Vodafone, Volantis, Volubil, Yota, Zain

Key Questions

• How will premium and tiered data plans affect LTE service revenues?
• What are the likely ARPU levels achievable for enterprise and consumer LTE users?
• What are the potential new LTE pricing models that the industry envisages?
• How are infrastructure and spectrum costs affecting LTE network operators?
• When will operator's revenue from LTE services exceed the operational costs?
• What are the strategies of leading mobile network operators for implementing LTE?
• How many LTE mobile broadband subscribers will there be each year from 2011-2016?
• What will be the split between enterprise and consumer LTE subscribers?
• Which will be the prime regions for LTE deployments?
• What are the trends, drivers and hurdles influencing the development of the LTE market?

目次

Executive Summary

LTE Market Status

1.1 Introduction..................... 20
1.2 LTE & LTE Advanced Objectives........................ 20
1.3 LTE-Advanced Market Update..................... 21

1.4 LTE Market Ecosystem...................... 22

Figure 1.1: LTE Ecosystem........................ 22
1.4.1 Equipment Manufacturers & Suppliers.................. 22
Table 1.1: Equipment Manufacture & Suppliers
Industry Commercial Contracts............. 22
1.4.2 End User Device Vendors................... 23
Figure 1.2: Available LTE User Device Products (July 2011)................ 23
i. Samsung - Smartphones................ 24
Figure 1.3: Samsung Droid Charge SCH-i510 LTE Device................... 24
ii. Huawei - USB Modems.................... 24
Figure 1.4: Huawei E398 USB Modem........... 25
1.4.3 Service/ Application Providers................... 25
i. ng Connect Program - Alcatel Lucent........................ 25
Figure 1.5: ng Connect Program................ 25
1.4.4 Mobile Network Operators........... 26

1.5 LTE Market Drivers................... 26

1.5.1 Mobile Broadband Trends................. 26
Figure 1.6: Broadband Connectivity Demand Cycle.................. 27
1.5.2 Widespread Industry Support.............. 28
Figure 1.7: LTE Operator Commitments (As of October 2011)............. 28
1.5.3 Mobile Data Traffic Growth......................... 28
Figure 1.8: Verizon Wireless Network Challenges..................... 28
Figure 1.9: Total Data Traffic through the Cellular Network p.a. (PB) Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2015............................. 29
Table 1.2: Total Data Traffic through the Cellular Network p.a. (PB) Split by Regions 2010-2015.. 30
1.5.4 Decline of ARPU................. 30
Figure 1.10: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU and Operator-Billed Service Revenues 2010-2016........................... 30
Table 1.3: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU and Operator-Billed Service Revenues 2010-2016......................... 31
Figure 1.11: The ‘Nightmare' Scenario: Global MNO Service Revenues vs. CAPEX/OPEX ($bn) 2010-2016......................... 31
Table 1.4: The ‘Nightmare' Scenario: Global MNO Service Revenues vs. CAPEX/OPEX
($bn) 2010-2016................. 32
1.5.5 New Service and Revenue Opportunities................. 32
Figure 1.12: LTE Enabled Applications....................... 32
Table 1.5: LTE New Services - Juniper Research Interview Responses................... 32
1.5.6 New Connected Devices.................... 33
Table 1.6: LTE New Connected Devices - Juniper Research Interview Responses.......................... 33
1.5.7 Improved User Experience.......................... 34
1.5.8 Technical Advantages......................... 34

1.6 The Hurdles Facing LTE......................... 34

1.6.1 Business Models and Service Monetisation..................... 35
1.6.2 Devices..................... 35
i. Device Availability................ 35
ii. Device Types....................... 36
Figure 1.13: LTE Device Introduction Timeline............. 36
iii. Device Convergence and Development...................... 37
iv. 1.6.3 Spectrum: When and How Much?............... 37
Figure 1.14: Digital Dividend Spectrum Status............ 37
1.6.4 Backhaul Capacity Requirements........................ 38
Figure 1.15: Total Mobile Backhaul Bandwidth Capacity Requirement (Gbps) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.............................. 38
Table 1.7: Total Mobile Backhaul Bandwidth Capacity Requirement (Gbps) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016......................... 39

LTE Operator Status

Figure 2.1: Number of Network Commitments Comparison (HSDPA, HSUPA, HSPA+, LTE)..... 40

2.1 North America............. 41

2.1.1 Verizon Wireless USA...................... 41
Figure 2.2: Verizon Wireless USA 4G Market Map....................... 41
Table 2.1: Verizon Wireless 4G LTE Devices Example................ 42
2.1.2 AT&T Mobility............................. 42
i. LTE Strategy.......................... 42
ii. LTE Commercial Launch.................. 43
Figure 2.3: AT&T LTE Coverage Map...................... 43

2.2 Latin America..................... 44

2.2.1 America Movil.................. 44

2.3 Western Europe.................. 44

2.3.1 TeliaSonera Norway & Sweden............... 45
Figure 2.4: Samsung LTE Modem Dongle................... 45
2.3.2 Vodafone Germany.......................... 46
2.3.3 Telecom Italia.................. 47
2.3.4 France Telecom Orange.............. 47
i. LTE Strategy........................... 47
ii. LTE Field Test Parameters....................... 48
Figure 2.5: Architecture of the France Telecom Orange LTE EPC Trial Network....................... 48
iii. LTE EPC Commercial Launch................... 49
Figure 2.6: France Telecom Orange LTE Deployment Timeline........... 49
2.3.5 Everything Everywhere & O2, United Kingdom.............. 50
Figure 2.7: Everything Everywhere and BT 4G LTE Broadband Trial Area Map............... 50

2.4 Central & Eastern Europe..................... 50

2.4.1 Yota Russia................. 51

2.5 Far East & China............. 51

2.5.1 NTT DoCoMo Japan........................ 51
Figure 2.8: NTT DoCoMo
Super 3G (LTE) Timeplan........... 52
2.5.2 China Mobile.............. 53

2.6 Indian Subcontinent.................... 54

2.7 Rest of Asia Pacific................. 54

2.7.1 Telstra Australia............... 54
Figure 2.9: Telstra 4G LTE
Mobile Broadband Dongle.......... 55
2.7.2 SingTel Singapore................ 55

2.8 Africa & Middle East..................... 56

2.8.1 VivaCell-MTS Armenia.................. 56
2.8.2 Etisalat UAE................. 56
2.8.3 Zain Bahrain............... 57
Table 2.2: Nokia Siemens
Network - Zain, Bahrain LTE Solution & Benefits.................. 57
2.8.4 MTS and Ucell Uzbekistan................... 58

2.9 Analysis and Conclusion.............. 58

2.9.1 LTE Network Commitments to Date........... 58
Figure 2.10: LTE Network Commitments Split by 8 Key Regions (as at June 2010) Number of MNOs................. 59
Table 2.3: LTE Network Commitments Split by 8 Key Regions (as at June 2011) Number of MNOs.............. 59
2.9.2 LTE Future Launches by Country.................. 60
Figure 2.11: LTE Network Launch Date by Country 2009-2013 and Beyond................ 60

2.10 Spectrum for LTE Deployments................. 61

Figure 2.12: LTE Potential Spectrum Bands................ 61
Table 2.4: Global LTE Spectrum Band Availability for Mobile Operators................ 61
2.10.1 Spectrum Refarming........................... 62
Table 2.5: Spectrum Refarming Cost Savings....................... 63

LTE Subscriber Forecasts

3.1 Methodology.................. 64

3.1.1 Geographical Splits..................... 64
3.1.2 Methodology and Assumptions........................ 65
Figure 3.1: LTE Market Forecast Methodology................. 65
3.1.3 Technology Splits.................. 66

3.2 Cellular Market Growth........... 66

Figure 3.2: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016................. 67
Table 3.1: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016................... 67
Figure 3.3: Cellular Subscriber Base Market Share (%) by Region 2011-2016................. 68
Table 3.2: Mobile Subscriber Base (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016................. 68
Figure 3.4: Cellular Subscriber Penetration (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016................ 68
Table 3.3: Cellular Subscriber Penetration (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.................. 69

3.3 Regional Broadband and LTE Subscriber Forecasts............. 69

3.3.1 MNO Strategies................. 69
3.3.2 North America........... 70
Figure 3.5: North America LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016..................... 70
Table 3.4: North America LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016..................... 71
Figure 3.6: North America LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016...................... 71
Table 3.5: North America LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.......................... 72
3.3.3 Latin America............... 72
Figure 3.7: North America LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.................... 72
Table 3.6: Latin America LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.......................... 73
Figure 3.8: Latin America LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.......................... 73
Table 3.7: Latin America LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016......................... 73
3.3.4 Western Europe.................. 74
Figure 3.9: Western Europe LTE and HSPA Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016......... 74
Table 3.8: Western Europe LTE and HSPA Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016....... 75
Figure 3.10: Western Europe LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016..................... 75
Table 3.9: Western Europe LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016........................ 75
3.3.5 Central and Eastern Europe.............. 75
Figure 3.11: Central and Eastern Europe LTE HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.............. 76
Table 3.10: Central and Eastern Europe LTE HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016................ 76
Figure 3.12: Central and Eastern Europe LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016...................... 77
Table 3.11: Central and Eastern Europe LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016..................... 77
3.3.6 Far East & China..................... 77
Figure 3.13: Far East & China LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016....................... 78
Table 3.12: Far East & China LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016................... 78
Figure 3.14: Far East & China LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016..................... 79
Table 3.13: Far East & China LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016..................... 79
3.3.7 Indian Subcontinent............. 79
Figure 3.15: Indian Subcontinent LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016................ 80
Table 3.14: Indian Subcontinent LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.................. 80
Figure 3.16: Indian Subcontinent LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016...................... 80
Table 3.15: Indian Subcontinent LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016....................... 81
3.3.8 Rest of Asia Pacific................ 81
Figure 3.17: Rest of Asia Pacific LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016................. 82
Table 3.16: Rest of Asia Pacific LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016................... 82
Figure 3.18: Rest of Asia Pacific LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016...................... 82
Table 3.17: Rest of Asia Pacific LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016....................... 83
3.3.9 Africa & Middle East................... 83
Figure 3.19 Africa & Middle East LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.................... 83
Table 3.18: Africa & Middle East LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.................. 84
Figure 3.20: Africa & Middle East LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.................. 84
Table 3.19: Africa & Middle East LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016....................... 84
3.3.10 Global............ 85
Figure 3.21: Global LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.................... 85
Table 3.20: Global LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016................. 85
Figure 3.22: Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers
Split by 8 Key Regions (m) 2011-2016.................. 85 
Table 3.21: Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions (m) 2011-2016.................... 86
Figure 3.23: Global LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.................... 86
Table 3.22: Global LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016..................... 87
Figure 3.24: Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers Added p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions (m) 2011-2016................ 87
Table 3.23: Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers Added p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions (m) 2011-2016.................... 88

LTE Business Models: Service Pricing Forecasts

4.1 Tariff Announcements................... 90

4.1.1 AT&T.................... 90
4.1.2 TeliaSonera........................ 91
4.1.3 Vodafone Germany.............................. 91
Figure 4.1: Vodafone Germany LTE Home Packages..................... 91
4.1.4 NTT DOCOMO.................................... 92
Figure 4.2: NTT DOCOMO LTE Monthly Charges..................... 92

4.2 LTE Service Pricing Approach.................... 93

4.2.1 Tariff Analysis...................... 93
Figure 4.3: Analysis of LTE Pricing Announcements - $ per month.............. 93
Table 4.1: Analysis of LTE Pricing Announcements by Operators - $ per month.................... 93
Figure 4.4: Average LTE Pricing per Tier - $ per month...................... 94
Table 4.2: Analysis of LTE Pricing Announcements - $ per month................ 94
4.2.2 Pricing Assumptions and Limitations......................... 94
Table 4.3: LTE Pricing Structure.................... 95
4.3 LTE Enterprise User Service Pricing................ 95
4.3.1 LTE Enterprise Pricing: Premium................. 95
Figure 4.5: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing ($) Premium Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016........... 96
Table 4.4: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing ($) Premium Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016......... 96
4.3.2 LTE Enterprise Pricing: Top Tier................ 96
Figure 4.6: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing ($) Top Tier Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016........... 96
Table 4.5: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing ($) Top Tier Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016......... 97
4.3.3 LTE Enterprise Pricing: Mid Tier........................ 97
Figure 4.7: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing ($) Mid Tier Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016........... 97
Table 4.6: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing ($) Mid Tier Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 98
4.3.4 LTE Enterprise Pricing: Low Tier.................... 98
Figure 4.8: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing ($) Low Tier Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016........... 98
Table 4.7: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing ($) Low Tier Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016......... 99
4.4 LTE Consumer User Service Pricing................. 99
4.4.1 LTE Consumer Pricing: Premium................. 99
Figure 4.9: LTE Consumer Service Pricing ($) Premium Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 99
Table 4.8: LTE Consumer Service Pricing ($) Premium Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016....... 100
4.4.2 LTE Consumer Pricing: Top Tier................. 100
Figure 4.10: LTE Consumer Service Pricing ($) Top Tier Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016...... 100
Table 4.9: LTE Consumer Service Pricing ($) Top Tier Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016....... 101
4.4.3 LTE Consumer Pricing: Mid Tier........................... 101
Figure 4.11: LTE Consumer Service Pricing ($) Mid Tier Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016...... 101
Table 4.10: LTE Consumer Service Pricing ($) Mid Tier Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016..... 102
4.4.4 LTE Consumer Pricing: Low Tier....................... 102
Figure 4.12: LTE Consumer Service Pricing ($) Low Tier Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016...... 102
Table 4.11: LTE Consumer Service Pricing ($) Low Tier Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.... 103
4.5 Usage Adoption Scenarios................. 103
Table 4.12: LTE Usage Scenarios.................. 103

LTE Business Model: Scenario 1 ‘Average’

5.1 Service Revenues........... 105

5.1.1 Enterprise Revenues...................... 105
Figure 5.1: Scenario 1 LTE Enterprise Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.................... 106
Table 5.1: Scenario 1 LTE Enterprise Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016...................... 106
5.1.2 Consumer Revenues.................... 106
Figure 5.2: Scenario 1 LTE Consumer Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016................... 107
Table 5.2: Scenario 1 LTE Consumer Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016...................... 107
5.1.3 Enterprise and Consumer Revenues.................. 107
Figure 5.3: Scenario 1 LTE Enterprise and Consumer Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016..................... 107
Table 5.3: Scenario 1 LTE Enterprise and Consumer Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015................... 108
Figure 5.4: Scenario 1 Global Revenue Forecast (% share) Split by LTE Enterprise and Consumer 2011- 2016...................... 108
Table 5.4: Scenario 1 Global Revenue Forecast (% share) Split by LTE Enterprise and
Consumer 2011-2016..................... 109

5.2 Blended ARPU............. 109

Figure 5.5: Scenario 1 LTE Blended Enterprise and Consumer ARPU Forecast ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016....................... 109
Table 5.5: Scenario 1 LTE Blended Enterprise and Consumer ARPU Forecast ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.......................... 110

LTE Business Model: Scenario 2 ‘Power’

6.1 Usage Adoption Profiles.................... 112

6.1.1 Enterprise Users............... 112
Figure 6.1: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise Adoption Profile Summary: Global (% of LTE users) 2011-2016................. 112
Table 6.1: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise Adoption Profile Summary: Global (% of LTE users) 2011-2016.................... 113
6.1.2 Consumer Users................. 113
Figure 6.2: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer Adoption Profile Summary: Global (% of LTE users) 2011-2016.................. 114
Table 6.2: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer Adoption Profile Summary: Global (% of LTE users) 2011-2016................... 114
6.1.3 Enterprise and Consumer Users..................... 114
Figure 6.3: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and Consumer Adoption Profile Summary: Global (% of LTE users) 2011-2016................... 114
Table 6.3: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and Consumer Adoption Profile Summary: Global (% of LTE users) 2011-2016........... 115

6.2 Service Revenues................. 115

6.2.1 Enterprise Revenues................... 115
Figure 6.4: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise Global Revenues ($m) Split by Tier 2011-2016................... 115
Table 6.4: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise Global Revenues ($m) Split by Tier 2011-2016..................... 116
Figure 6.5: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise Global Revenues (%) Split by Tier 2011-2016....................... 116
Table 6.5: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise Global Revenues (%) Split by Tier 2011-2016................... 116
Figure 6.6: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise Global Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.......................... 117
Table 6.6: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise Global Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016...................... 117
Figure 6.7: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise Global Revenues (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016...................... 118
Table 6.7: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise Global Revenues (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016..................... 118
6.2.2 Consumer Revenues................................ 118
Figure 6.8: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer Global Revenues ($m) Split by Tier 2011-2016...................... 118
Table 6.8: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer Global Revenues ($m) Split by Tier 2011-2016....................... 119
Figure 6.9: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer Global Revenues (%) Split by Tier 2011-2016......................... 119
Table 6.9: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer Global Revenues (%) Split by Tier 2011-2016....................... 119
Figure 6.10: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer Global Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.................. 120
Table 6.10: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer Global Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016...................... 120
Figure 6.11: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer Global Revenues (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016............................. 121
Table 6.11: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer Global Revenues (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.......................... 121
6.2.3 Enterprise and Consumer Revenues...................... 121
Figure 6.12: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and Consumer Global Revenues ($m) Split by Tier 2011-2016...................... 121
Table 6.12: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and Consumer Global Revenues ($m) Split by Tier 2011-2016................... 122
Figure 6.13: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and Consumer Global Revenues (%) Split by Tier 2011-2016......................... 122
Table 6.13: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and Consumer Global Revenues (%) Split by Tier 2011-2016..................... 123
Figure 6.14: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and Consumer Global Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.................. 123
Table 6.14: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and Consumer Global Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016...............124
Figure 6.15: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and Consumer Global Revenues (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016................. 124
Table 6.15: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and Consumer Global Revenues (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.................. 125

6.3 ARPU....................... 125

6.3.1 Enterprise ARPU......................... 125
Figure 6.16: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise ARPU ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.................... 125
Table 6.16: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise ARPU ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.................... 126
6.3.2 Consumer ARPU................... 126
Figure 6.17: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer ARPU ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016........................ 127
Table 6.17: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer ARPU ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016........................ 127
6.3.3 Enterprise and Consumer Blended ARPU........................ 128
Figure 6.18: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and Consumer Blended ARPU ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.................. 128
Table 6.18: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and Consumer Blended ARPU ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.................... 128

LTE Business Model: Scenario 3 ‘Low - Mid’ 

7.1 Usage Adoption Profiles.................. 129

7.1.1 Enterprise Users.................. 129
Figure 7.1: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise Adoption Profile Summary: Global (% of LTE users) 2011-2016.................. 129
Table 7.1: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise Adoption Profile Summary: Global (% of LTE users) 2011-2016...................130
7.1.2 Consumer Users................ 130
Figure 7.2: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer Adoption Profile Summary: Global (% of LTE users) 2011-2016...................... 130
Table 7.2: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer Adoption Profile Summary: Global (% of LTE users) 2011-2016...................... 131
7.1.3 Enterprise and Consumer Users.................... 131
Figure 7.3: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and Consumer Adoption Profile Summary: Global (% of LTE users) 2011-2016.................. 131
Table 7.3: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and Consumer Adoption Profile Summary: Global (% of LTE users) 2011-2016............. 132

7.2 Service Revenues................ 132

7.2.1 Enterprise Revenues..................... 132
Figure 7.4: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise Global Revenues Split by Tier ($m) 2011-2016..........................132
Table 7.4: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise Global Revenues Split by Tier ($m) 2011-2016................................ 133
Figure 7.5: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise Global Revenues Split by Tier (%) 2011-2016....................... 133
Table 7.5: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise Global Revenues Split by Tier (%) 2011-2016.................. 134
Figure 7.6: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise Global Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016................... 134
Table 7.6: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise Global Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016....................... 135
Figure 7.7: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise Global Revenues (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.................... 135
Table 7.7: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise Global Revenues (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016......................... 136
7.2.2 Consumer Revenues........................ 136
Figure 7.8: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer Global Revenues ($m) Split by Tier 2011-2016..................... 136
Table 7.8: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer Global Revenues ($m) Split by Tier 2011-2016...................... 137
Figure 7.9: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer Global Revenues (%) Split by Tier 2011-2016.................... 137
Table 7.9: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer Global Revenues (%) Split by Tier 2011-2016.................. 138
Figure 7.10: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer Global Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016...................... 138
Table 7.10: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer Global Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016..................... 139
Figure 7.11: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer Global Revenues (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016........................ 139
Table 7.11: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer Global Revenues (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016..................... 140
7.2.3 Enterprise and Consumer Revenues..................... 140
Figure 7.12: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and Consumer Global Revenues ($m) Split by Tier 2011-2016...................... 140
Table 7.12: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and Consumer Global Revenues ($m) Split by Tier 2011-2016........................ 141
Figure 7.13: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and Consumer Global Revenues (%) Split by Tier 2011-2016......................... 141
Table 7.13: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and Consumer Global Revenues (%) Split by Tier 2011-2016..................... 141
Figure 7.14: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and Consumer Global Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016............... 142
Table 7.14: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and Consumer Global Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016........................... 142
Figure 7.15: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and Consumer Global Revenues (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016................ 143
Table 7.15: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and Consumer Global Revenues (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.................... 143

7.3 ARPU.................... 143

7.3.1 Enterprise ARPU.................. 143
Figure 7.16: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise ARPU ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.................... 143
Table 7.16: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise ARPU($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016....................... 144
7.3.2 Consumer ARPU.................... 144
Figure 7.17: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer ARPU ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016......................... 145
Table 7.17: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer ARPU ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.......................... 145
7.3.3 Enterprise and Consumer Blended ARPU.................. 145
Figure 7.18: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and Consumer Blended ARPU ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016................ 146
Table 7.18: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and Consumer Blended ARPU ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016............... 146

Scenario Comparisons and Conclusions

8.1 Global Service Revenues............................... 147

8.1.1 Enterprise........................... 147
Figure 8.1: Global LTE Enterprise Service Revenue Scenario Comparison ($m) 2011-2016........ 147
Table 8.1: Global LTE Enterprise Service Revenue Scenario Comparison ($m) 2011-2016....... 147
8.1.2 Consumer..................... 148
Figure 8.2: Global LTE Consumer Service Revenue Scenario Comparison ($m) 2011-2016........ 148
Table 8.2: Global LTE Consumer Service Revenue Scenario Comparison ($m) 2011-2016...... 148
8.1.3 Enterprise and Consumer........................ 149
Figure 8.3: Global LTE Enterprise and Consumer Service Revenue Scenario Comparison ($m) 2011-2016................... 149
Table 8.3: Global LTE Enterprise and Consumer Service Revenue Scenario Comparison ($m) 2011-2016...................... 149

8.2 ARPU........................... 149

8.2.1 Enterprise..................... 149
Figure 8.4: Global LTE Enterprise ARPU Scenario Comparison ($) 2011-2016................... 150
Table 8.4: Global LTE Enterprise ARPU Scenario Comparison ($) 2011-2016............................ 150
8.2.2 Consumers.......................... 150
Figure 8.5: Global LTE Consumer ARPU Scenario Comparison ($) 2011-2016............................. 150
Table 8.5: Global LTE Consumer ARPU Scenario Comparison ($) 2011-2016............................ 151
8.2.3 Blended Enterprise and Consumer.......................... 151
Figure 8.6: Global LTE Blended Enterprise and Consumer ARPU Scenario Comparison ($) 2011-2016....................... 151
Table 8.6: Global LTE Blended Enterprise and Consumer ARPU Scenario Comparison ($) 2011-2016........................ 152

8.3 Conclusions................. 152

Spectrum Costs & Capex Analysis

9.1 Spectrum Costs.......................... 155

9.2 Analysis: Western Europe....................... 156

9.2.1 Spectrum Cost Analysis................... 156
Table 9.1: Western Europe Spectrum Band Auction, October 2011.................. 157
Figure 9.1: Western Europe - LTE Service Revenue ($m) Scenario Comparison........................... 158
Table 9.2: Western Europe - LTE Service Revenue ($m) Scenario Comparison.......................... 158
9.2.2 Infrastructure Cost Analysis........................ 159
Figure 9.2: Infrastructure Cost ($m) Analysis for Western Europe.................. 159
Table 9.3: Infrastructure Cost ($m) Analysis for Western Europe..................... 159
9.2.3 Operational Cost & LTE Service Revenue Comparison................. 160
Figure 9.3 Operational Cost vs. Scenario based LTE Service Revenue ($m) for Western Europe 2011-2016............. 160
Table 9.4 Operational Cost vs. Scenario based LTE Service Revenue ($m) for Western Europe 2011-2016..................... 160
9.2.4 Cumulative Net Cash Flow Analysis.............. 161
Figure 9.4: Cumulative Net Cash Flow Analysis for Western Europe ($bn) 2011-2016............... 161
Table 9.5: Cumulative Net Cash Flow Analysis for Western Europe ($bn) 2011-2016.............. 162