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この調査レポートは、4G LTE市場の将来性について調査するLTEレポートシリーズの第2弾です。
この調査レポートは、LTEの収益機会を分析し、LTEの収益生成の可能性のある様々なビジネスモデルを査定しています。下記の項目について、2015年までの市場予測を行っています。
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地域毎のLTE新規加入者の予測
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地域毎の企業加入者数と一般加入者数の予測
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3シナリオ(標準的/弱気/強気)による地域毎のLTE企業ユーザと一般ユーザの採用予測
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3シナリオ(標準的/弱気/強気)による地域毎のLTE企業ユーザと一般ユーザの収益予測
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3シナリオ(標準的/弱気/強気)による地域毎のLTE企業ユーザと一般ユーザのARPU予測
Overview
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60 page Forecast Suite
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Scenario Based Market Projections
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Expert Analysis of LTE Business Models
This second of two reports examining the opportunities for LTE (Long Term Evolution) provides a strategic evaluation of the various possible business models employed for LTE revenue generation. Across an extensive 60 page forecast suite, this report provides market projections for the following:
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LTE subscriber take-up each year, by region
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Enterprise and consumer subscriber figures, by region
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LTE enterprise and consumer adoption, by region for three scenarios
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LTE enterprise and consumer revenues, by region for three scenarios
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LTE enterprise and consumer ARPU, by region for three scenarios
This companion report to ‘4G LTE Hardware Opportunities: Subscribers, End User Devices & Vendor Strategies 2010-2015’ explores a number of key LTE trials and commercial service plans as well as considering the market drivers and hurdles facing LTE.
Companies Referenced
ADC, Alcatel-Lucent, Aricent, AT & T Mobility, Bytemobile, Cambridge Broadband Networks, Cambridge Consultants, China Mobile, Cognovo, Comptel, Empirix, Ericsson, Etisalat, France Telecom Orange, Funambol, Huawei, InfiNet Wireless, SingTel, Kineto Wireless, MACH, MetroPCS, Motorola, Nimbuzz, Nokia Siemens Networks, NTT DoCoMo, Picochip, Samsung, Syniverse, Telecom Italia, TeliaSonera, Telstra, TM Forum, Ucell, UMTS Forum, Verizon Wireless, VivaCell-MTS, Vodafone, Volantis, Volubil, Yota, Zain.
目次
Executive Summary
1. LTE Market Drivers and Hurdles
1.1 LTE Market Drivers
1.1.1 Mobile Broadband Trends
Figure 1.1: Broadband Connectivity Demand Cycle
1.1.2 Widespread Industry Support
Figure 1.2: LTE Operator Commitments
1.1.3 Mobile Data Traffic Growth
Figure 1.3: Verizon Wireless Network Challenges
Figure 1.4: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast
1.1.4 New Service and Revenue Opportunities
Table 1.1: LTE New Services - Juniper Research Interview Responses
1.1.5 New Connected Devices
Table 1.2: LTE New Connected Devices - Juniper Research Interview Responses
1.1.6 Improved User Experience
1.1.7 Technical Advantages
1.2 The Hurdles Facing LTE
1.2.1 Business Models and Service Monetisation
1.2.2 Devices
i Device Availability
ii Device Types
Figure 1.5: LTE Device Introduction Timeline
iii Device Convergence and Development
1.2.3 Spectrum: When and How Much?
Figure 1.6: Digital Dividend Spectrum Status
Figure 1.7: LTE Potential Spectrum Bands
2. LTE Operator Market Status
2.1 Introduction
2.1.1 North America
i. Verizon Wireless USA
Figure 2.1: Verizon Wireless 4G LTE Launch Markets Map
ii. AT&T Mobility USA
iii. Metro PCS
2.1.2 Western Europe
i. TeliaSonera Norway & Sweden
Figure 2.2: Samsung LTE Modem Dongle
ii. Vodafone Germany
iii. Telecom Italia
iv. France Telecom Orange
a. LTE Strategy
b. LTE Field Test Parameters
Figure 2.3: Architecture of the France Telecom Orange LTE EPC Trial Network
c. LTE EPC Commercial Launch
Figure 2.4: France Telecom Orange LTE Deployment Timeline
2.1.3 Central & Eastern Europe
i. Yota Russia (Scartel)
2.1.4 Far East & China
i. NTT DoCoMo Japan
Figure 2.5: NTT DoCoMo Super 3G (LTE) Timeplan
ii. China Mobile
2.1.5 Rest of Asia Pacific
i. Telstra Australia
ii. SingTel Singapore
2.1.6 Africa & Middle East
i. VivaCell-MTS Armenia
ii. Etisalat UAE
iii. Zain Bahrain
iv. MTS and Ucell Uzbekistan
2.2 Analysis and Conclusion
2.2.1 LTE Network Commitments to Date
Figure 2.6: LTE Network Commitments by 8 Key Regions as at October 2010 - Number of MNOs
Table 2.1: LTE Network Commitments by 8 Key Regions as at October 2010 - Number of MNOs
2.2.2 LTE Future Launches by Country
Figure 2.7: LTE Network Commitments by Country Launch Date 2010 to 2012 and Beyond as at October 2010
3. LTE Subscriber Forecasts
3.1 Methodology
3.1.1 Approach and Assumptions
Figure 3.1: LTE Market Forecast Methodology
3.1.2 Technology Splits
3.2 Mobile Market Growth
Figure 3.2: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015
Table 3.1: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015
Figure 3.3: Mobile Subscriber Base Market Share (%) Slit by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015
Table 3.2: Mobile Subscriber Base (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015
Figure 3.4: Mobile Subscriber Penetration (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015
Table 3.3: Mobile Subscriber Penetration (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015
3.3 Regional Broadband and LTE Subscriber Forecasts
3.3.1 MNO Strategies
3.3.2 North America
Figure 3.5: North America Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) Split by LTE, HSPA & EVDO Revs A & B 2011-2015
Table 3.4: North America Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) Split by LTE, HSPA & EVDO Revs A & B 2011-2015
Figure 3.6: North America Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) Split by LTE Enterprise & Consumer 2011-2015
Table 3.5: North America Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) Split by LTE Enterprise & Consumer 2011-2015
3.3.3 Western Europe
Figure 3.7: Western Europe Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) Split by LTE and HSPA 2011-2015
Table 3.6: Western Europe Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) Split by LTE and HSPA 2011-2015
Figure 3.8: Western Europe Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) Split by LTE Enterprise & Consumer 2011-2015
Table 3.7: Western Europe Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) Split by LTE Enterprise & Consumer 2011-2015
3.3.4 Central & Eastern Europe
Figure 3.9: Central and Eastern Europe Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) Split by LTE HSPA & EVDO Revs A & B 2011-2015
Table 3.8: Central and Eastern Europe Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) Split by LTE HSPA & EVDO Revs A & B 2011-2015
Figure 3.10: Central & Eastern Europe Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) Split by LTE Enterprise & Consumer 2011-2015
Table 3.9: Central & Eastern Europe Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) Split by LTE Enterprise & Consumer 2011-2015
3.3.5 Far East & China
Figure 3.11: Far East & China LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2015
Table 3.10: Far East & China LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2015
Figure 3.12: Far East & China LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2015
Table 3.11: Far East & China LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2015
3.1.6 Rest of Asia Pacific
Figure 3.13: Rest of Asia Pacific LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2015
Table 3.12: Rest of Asia Pacific LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2015
Figure 3.14: Rest of Asia Pacific LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2015
Table 3.13: Rest of Asia Pacific LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2015
3.1.7 Global
Figure 3.15: Global LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2015
Table 3.14: Global LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2015
Figure 3.16: Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015
Table 3.15: Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015
Figure 3.17: Global LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2015
Table 3.16: Global LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2015
Figure 3.18: Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers Added p.a. (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015
Table 3.15: Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers Added p.a. (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015
4. LTE Business Models: Primary Research Findings
4.1 Research Scope
4.1.1 Respondents
Table 4.1: Research Contributors
4.1.2 Topics Covered
4.2 Research Results
4.2.1 Is ARPU Dead?
Figure 4.1: Is ARPU Dead? (Yes/No %) - Juniper Research Interview Responses
Table 4.2: Is ARPU Dead? (Yes/No %) - Juniper Research Interview Responses
Table 4.3: Is the concept of ARPU as a primary measure of success dead in a 4G environment? - Juniper Research Interview Responses
Table 4.4: Why is ARPU dead? - Juniper Research Interview Responses
4.2.2 ARPU: Are There Alternatives?
Table 4.5: ARPU Alternatives - Juniper Research Interview Responses
4.2.3 The Future of Flat Rate Data Tariffs
Figure 4.2: Will Flat Rate Data Tariffs Continue in a 4G World? (Yes/No %) - Juniper Research Interview Responses
Table 4.6: Will Flat Rate Data Tariffs Continue in a 4G World? (Yes/No %) - Juniper Research Interview Responses
Figure 4.3: Metro PCS 4G LTE Service
Table 4.7: Will Flat Rate Data Tariffs Continue in a 4G World? - Juniper Research Interview Responses
4.2.4 New Pricing Models
Figure 4.4: New Pricing Models Ranking (%) - Juniper Research Interview Responses
Table 4.8: New Pricing Models Ranking (%) - Juniper Research Interview Responses
Table 4.9: New Pricing Models Definitions - Juniper Research Interview Responses
Table 4.10: New Pricing Models - Juniper Research Interview Responses
4.2.5 Billing in the New LTE Environment
Figure 4.5: Will there be "Master SIM" and "Slave SIM" bills? (%) - Juniper Research Interview Responses
Table 4.11: Will there be "Master SIM" and "Slave SIM" bills? (%) - Juniper Research Interview Responses
Table 4.12: "Master SIM" and "Slave SIM" Bills - Juniper Research Interview Responses
4.2.6 Top LTE Applications and Services
Figure 4.6: Top LTE Application and Services (%) - Juniper Research Interview Responses
Table 4.13: Top LTE Application and Services (%) - Juniper Research Interview Responses
Table 4.14: Top LTE Application and Services - Juniper Research Interview Responses
4.2.7 The Future of WiFi
Table 4.15: The Role of WiFi - Juniper Research Interview Responses
Figure 4.7: Can WiFi be Monetised? (Yes/No %) - Juniper Research Interview Responses
Table 4.16: Can WiFi be Monetised? (Yes/No %) - Juniper Research Interview Responses
Table 4.17: Can WiFi be Monetised? - Juniper Research Interview Responses
5. LTE Business Models: Service Pricing Forecasts
5.1 Tariffs Announced
5.1.1 Metro PCS
5.1.2 TeliaSonera Norway and Sweden
5.1.3 Vodafone Germany
5.2 LTE Service Pricing Approach
5.2.1 Tariff Analysis
Figure 5.1: Analysis of LTE Pricing Announcements - $ per month
Table 5.1: Analysis of LTE Pricing Announcements - $ per month
5.2.2 Pricing and ARPU: Trends and Issues
Figure 5.2: Mobile Service Policy Evolution
5.2.3 Pricing Assumptions and Limitations
Table 5.2: LTE Pricing Structure
5.3 LTE Enterprise User Service Pricing
5.3.1 LTE Enterprise Pricing: Premium
Figure 5.3: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing - Premium Split by 8 Key Regions ($) 2011-2015
Table 5.3: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing - Premium Split by 8 Key Regions ($) 2011-2015
5.3.2 LTE Enterprise Pricing: Top Tier
Figure 5.4: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing - Top Tier Split by 8 Key Regions ($) 2011-2015
Table 5.4: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing - Top Tier Split by 8 Key Regions ($) 2011-2015
5.3.3 LTE Enterprise Pricing: Mid Tier
Figure 5.5: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing - Mid Tier Split by 8 Key Regions ($) 2011-2015
Table 5.5: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing - Mid Tier Split by 8 Key Regions ($) 2011-2015
5.3.4 LTE Enterprise Pricing: Low Tier
Figure 5.6: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing - Low Tier Split by 8 Key Regions ($) 2011-2015
Table 5.6: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing - Low Tier Split by 8 Key Regions ($) 2011-2015
5.4 LTE Consumer User Service Pricing
5.4.1 LTE Consumer Pricing: Premium
Figure 5.7: LTE Consumer Service Pricing - Premium Split by 8 Key Regions ($) 2011-2015
Table 5.7: LTE Consumer Service Pricing - Premium Split by 8 Key Regions ($) 2011-2015
5.4.2 LTE Consumer Pricing: Top Tier
Figure 5.8: LTE Consumer Service Pricing - Top Tier Split by 8 Key Regions ($) 2011-2015
Table 5.8: LTE Consumer Service Pricing - Top Tier Split by 8 Key Regions ($) 2011-2015
5.4.3 LTE Consumer Pricing: Mid Tier
Figure 5.9: LTE Consumer Service Pricing - Mid Tier Split by 8 Key Regions ($) 2011-2015
Table 5.9: LTE Consumer Service Pricing - Mid Tier Split by 8 Key Regions ($) 2011-2015
5.4.4 LTE Consumer Pricing: Low Tier
Figure 5.10: LTE Consumer Service Pricing - Low Tier ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015
Table 5.10: LTE Consumer Service Pricing - Low Tier ($) Split by 8 Key Regions ($) 2011-2015
5.5 Usage Adoption Scenarios
Table 5.11: LTE Usage Scenarios
6. LTE Business Model: Scenario 1 Average
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米国と日本が先導する高速モバイルブロードバンド、2015年に世界で2000億ドルを上回るLTEの収益
新しいスペクトルオークションの時期発表で出遅れる英国
英国ハンプシャー、2010年12月15日水曜日
英国調査会社ジュニパーリサーチ社の調査レポート「4G LTE市場の収益機会:ビジネスモデル、シナリオ、オペレータ戦略の2015年までの予測 ー 4G LTE Revenue Opportunities:Business Models, Scenarios and Operator Strategies 2010-2015」は、LTEモバイルブロードバンドネットワークの初期市場は先進国のビジネス市場であり、米国と日本が先行していると報告している。ジュニパーリサーチ社は、2011年に始まるLTEの世界のサービス収益は、2015年には2000億ドルを上回るだろうと述べている。
LTEのビジネスユーザは、サービスの質を改善しながら、高速で高品質なサービスを得られるようになるだろう。しかし、英国などの欧州諸国の帯域幅オークションは、2012年までは入札が開始されない見通しで、この時機を逸するだろう。
収益促進要因
この調査レポートは、ハイエンドのビジネスユーザ向けのLTEのプレミアムサービスがモバイルオペレータの収益を促進するだろうと報告している。
調査レポートの著者Howard Wilcox氏は、「高速なトラフィックでウェブやEメール、ビデオサービスを利用する企業加入者はLTEの早期採用者のビジネスモデルを形成するだろう。高額の料金プランによって、収益が促進するだろう」と述べている。
しかし、この調査レポートは、消費者の利用月額はビジネスユーザの半額程度だろうと予測している。
その他の調査結果
- オペレータは、利用度が高いシナリオでは、2倍のARPUを期待できるプレミアムサービスを利用するハイエンドのビジネスユーザを獲得し、保有できるだろう
- 2015年に、北米、極東と中国、西欧は合計でLTE収益の90％を占めるだろう
- 消費者ユーザの収益は、少なくとも2015年までは収益合計の半分以下であるだろう
調査レポートの詳細
ジュニパーリサーチ社は、LTEのビジネスチャンスを調査し、様々な価格やユーザの利用による3つの収益シナリオを評価している。企業加入者と消費者加入者の5年間予測を行い、LTEの最新情報をわかりやすく記載している。
US & Japan Lead Race for High Speed Mobile Broadband as LTE Revenues to Exceed $200bn Globally by 2015
UK lags behind leaders after new spectrum auction timetable announcedHampshire, UK: Wednesday, 15th December 2010 - According to a new Juniper Research report, the first beneficiaries of LTE mobile broadband networks will be business users based in developed countries, led by the US and Japan amongst other countries. Juniper forecasts that global service revenues will exceed $200bn by 2015, from a standing start in 2011.
LTE business users will benefit from speed or quality of service guarantees thereby alleviating service dropouts. However, spectrum auction timetables in some European countries such as the UK where bidding does not start until 2012, will delay users experiencing these benefits.
Revenue DriversJuniper’s new report found that LTE premium services for high-end business users will be critical revenue drivers for mobile operators.
Howard Wilcox, author of the new 4G LTE Revenue Opportunities report noted: “Our business modeling demonstrated that high traffic enterprise subscribers using web, email and video services will be the critical early adopter segment to benefit from LTE. There is an opportunity for premium pricing plans that will drive service revenues and the report shows this.”
The report however also forecasts that consumer users will typically spend at only about half the monthly rate of enterprise users.
Further findings• Operators can attract and retain high-end business users through premium services which could generate double the ARPU in a high usage scenario;
• North America, Far East & China and Western Europe will together account for nearly 90% of LTE service revenues by 2015;
• Revenues from consumer users will remain under half of total revenues until at least 2015.
Report DetailsJuniper Research examines the LTE opportunity, evaluating three revenue scenarios based on a variety of pricing and user take-up assumptions. The report includes an extensive five year forecasting suite covering enterprise and consumer subscribers and the conclusions of Juniper’s comprehensive research survey on hot LTE topics.
