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この調査レポートは、モバイル決済やモバイル発券、交通機関などに使用されるNFC技術について調査している。モバイルNFCサービス市場の成長予測と、エコノミクス、技術的・戦略的促進要因と阻害要因について記載している。先進市場と発展途上市場の両方について、携帯電話事業者やOEM、決済サービスプロバイダの利用場面とビジネスチャンス、技術ベンダとプラットフォームベンダについて記載している。

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There seems to be a stronger case for the use of NFC for mobile payments in the emerging markets, whereas the focus initially in the developed world will be more on using NFC for mobile ticketing and transport applications.
- Shailendra Pandey, Senior Analyst, Informa Telecoms & Media

Summary

After almost flat-lining over a year ago, the mobile NFC sector has been re-energized by a flurry of announcements. Mobile operators in several countries have ganged up in NFC alliances and joint ventures; handset vendors have announced bold NFC handset rollout plans.

Overview

There has been a revival in enthusiasm for mobile NFC with a number of operators announcing plans to launch services in 2011. These mobile operators are eager to seize the initiative before OTT players, such as Google and Apple, jump ahead and capture the market for themselves. However, it is important to remember that the numerous barriers that have held back the mobile NFC market until now largely still remain in place. Therefore, the success of those operators keen on becoming mobile NFC market leaders will depend on how well they are able to tackle and remove the market barriers by partnering with other value chain players.

This report analyses the prospects for the growth of mobile NFC services, examining the economic, technological and strategic drivers, and constraints to overall market development. It evaluates the various user case and business opportunities presented by mobile NFC services for mobile operators, OEMs, PSPs, and technology and platform vendors, both in the developed and emerging markets.

Key Coverage:

• An in-depth assessment and analysis of the current mobile NFC Market, focusing specifically on the use of NFC in mobile phones.
• Key economic, technological and strategic drivers and barriers to mobile NFC market growth.
• The likely impact of recent NFC announcements by the operators and the strategies of handset vendors, including Google, Apple, Nokia and RIM.
• Detailed profiling of the mobile NFC ecosystem, value-chain players and the opportunities and challenges for these stakeholders. Plus, the relationships these players have now and how these relationships might change over the coming years.
• Market segmentation of the mobile NFC market including service and applications type: payments, transport and ticketing, couponing, access controls, managing identity and tagging, sharing and pairing with other devices, etc.
• Analysis of the various possible mobile NFC business models for operators, OEMs, PSPs, and technology and infrastructure vendors.
• Global and regional forecasts to 2015 for mobile NFC users, usage, transaction value and for NFC handset shipments.

Forecasts:

• NFC Handset Shipments by Region, 2010-15
• NFC Handset Installed Base by Region, 2010-15
• Mobile NFC Users by Region, 2010-15
• Mobile NFC Transactions by Region, 2010-15
• Mobile NFC Transactions by Type, 2010-15
• Mobile NFC Transaction Value by Region, 2010-15

Key issues addressed in this edition

• Expected trends that will have an impact on NFC market growth over the next five years.
• What are the opportunities and challenges for the various mobile NFC value-chain players, including the operators, handset vendors, PSPs, technology and platform vendors?
• What are the security compliance and risk management issues that need to be addressed?
• How can potential disagreements between the stakeholders over the technical implementation of SE (secure element) be resolved? 
• What are the various possible mobile NFC business models, pricing strategies, and what revenues can be expected for the different value-chain players?

Contributing Analysts

Shailendra Pandey - Senior Analyst, Content & Applications

Guillermo Escofet -  Senior Analyst, Content & Applications

詳細資料はこちらよりご依頼ください。

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2015年のNFC携帯電話の出荷数は6億3000万、市場価値は710億ドル

2011年9月29日

2012年以降のNFC携帯電話の出荷数ではアンドロイドが最大多数

英国調査会社インフォーマT&M社の調査レポート「モバイルNFC(近距離無線)サービス ー Mobile NFC Services」によれば、NFC機能のある携帯電話の増加と非接触POSインフラの改良によって、2013年以降のNFC機能のあるデバイスの販売は加速するだろうと報告している。NFC携帯電話の出荷総数は、2011-2015年に4400万から6300万に増加し、新発売の携帯電話に占める割合は、現在の3.5%から上昇して40%になるだろうと予測している。

「今後2年間は、モバイルNFC市場は安定的な成長がみこまれるが、アップルやグーグルの市場参入への脅威から、主要企業の多くがNFC携帯電話の採用にと変わるだろう。米国では、グーグルはすでにキャリアのテリトリーに影響する動きを始めている。アップルは、皆の憶測をよそに時期を見ている」とインフォーマT&M社のシニアアナリストGuillermo Escofet氏は語る。

「アンドロイドは、2012年以降のNFC携帯電話の最大多数を占め、2015年にはNFC携帯電話の75％がスマートフォンであるだろう」とインフォーマT&M社のシニアアナリストShailendra Pandey氏は予測している。

また、モバイルのNFCの成長は、例えば、タグ付け、共有、アクセスコントロール、クーポン、ロイヤリティーカード、情報、発券、ローカルの支払いなどの様々な利用場面によっても促進されるだろう。NFC携帯電話の可用性は、NFC機能のあるPOSインフラの普及速度、モバイルオペレータの市場関与の大きさについての携帯電話ベンダの認識、金融サービスや小売り分野に左右されるだろう。

「モバイルNFC支払による送金総額は、2011-2015年に24億ドルから71億ドル以上になるだろう。現在は、9割以上がアジア太平洋地域(特に日本と韓国)だが、西欧や北米での大規模なモバイルNFCサービスの採用が開始するため、この割合は2015年には40％に下落するだろう」とPandey氏は語る。

「出荷されるNFC携帯電話がすべて実際にNFCサービスを利用するとは限らず、それはNFC機能のあるPOS端末を採用する店舗の数と幅に依存するだろう。そのため、POSインフラがすでにかなり普及している日本や韓国と、主要都市部での急速な普及が見込まれる西欧や北米での利用が多いだろう」とPandey氏は語る。

[プレスリリース原文]
Press release: 630 million NFC handsets to drive transactions worth US$71 billion by 2015 By Shailendra Pandey September 29, 2011

Android to account for largest number of NFC handset shipments from 2012 onwards
Sales of NFC-enabled devices are expected to accelerate from 2013 onwards, with the availability of a larger range of mobile NFC handsets and an improved contactless POS infrastructure, according to the latest report from Informa Telecoms & Media. Total NFC handset shipments are expected to grow from almost 44 million in 2011 to over 630 million in 2015, representing 40% of all new handsets, up from 3.5% at present.

“We expect a modest growth of the mobile NFC market for the next two years but this will change as many of the leading players introduce NFC-enabled handsets, spurred to enter the market by fear of Apple’s and Google’s ambitions in the sector. Google has already played its hand, overshadowing moves by carriers in its home territory, the US. Apple is still waiting in the wings, leaving everyone guessing,” comments Guillermo Escofet, senior analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media.

“We anticipate that Android will account for the largest number of NFC handset shipments from 2012 onwards and over 75% of NFC handsets are anticipated to be smartphones by 2015,” according to Shailendra Pandey, senior analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media.

In addition, growth will be driven by the various user cases for mobile NFC (e.g., tagging/sharing, access controls, coupons, loyalty cards, information, ticketing and local payments). The availability of NFC handsets will depend on the speed of deployment of NFC-enabled POS infrastructure, the handset vendors’ perception of the scale of the commitment to the market from the mobile operators, and the financial services and retail sectors.

“The total value of the transactions from mobile NFC payments is expected to grow from around US$2.4 billion in 2011 to over US$71 billion by 2015. Currently over 90% is generated in Asia Pacific (mostly Japan and South Korea) but this share will drop to around 40% by 2015 as Western Europe and North America start to see strong adoption of mobile NFC services”, adds Pandey.

“Not all NFC handsets shipped will be actively used for NFC services, as this will depend on the number and range of merchants with NFC-enabled POS terminals. Consequently, usage will be highest in markets where POS infrastructure is already widespread like Japan and South Korea or is expected to be rolled out quickly like major urban areas in Western Europe and North America,” concludes Pandey.