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目次

The biggest impediment to LTE growth is the success of 3G and HSPA and HSPA+ networks. Mobile operators will leverage their existing infrastructures for as long as they possibly can.

The competing technology WiMAX can either be seen as a detriment to LTE growth or a driver of LTE growth. While WiMAX appears successful, it is apparent that LTE will emerge as the wireless broadband standard of the future. LTE benefits from WiMAX because many companies can repurpose their WiMAX intellectual property to compete in the LTE market.

The report takes an in-depth look at LTE and competing technologies on the road to the roll-outs of LTE. It begins by examining the move from 3G UMTS to LTE-Advanced and the relative growth drivers and inhibitors of the transition including usage patterns, net neutrality, spectrum and radio issues, backhaul, devices, and other important factors. It then addresses WiMAX and the effect that WiMAX has on LTE. Finally, it provides the LTE subscriber forecast and forecast for portable devices, mobile handsets, residential devices, and M2M devices with LTE.

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• Introduction
• Moving From 3G UMTS to LTE-Advanced
  • State of 3G Today
  • HSPA
    • I-HSPA
  • HSPA Evolution
  • About LTE and LTE Advanced
    • LTE
    • LTE Advanced
  • Organizations and Standards
    • 3GPP
    • 3GPP Americas
    • ng Connect
    • GSMA
    • NGMN
• Issues
  • Mobile Data Use Patterns Change14 Net Neutrality
  • Incentive for Handset Manufacturers
  • Toward Ubiquity
  • Signal-to-Noise Ratio and Shannon’s Law
  • Real Estate and Base Station Locations
  • The Reputation of Global Mobile Operators is at Stake
  • Digital Dividend
  • Additional Spectrum
  • LTE Patent and Royalty Pool
  • Backhaul
  • Sanity Check
  • It Will Work, But Success Requires That All of It Must Work
• WiMAX Strategies That LTE Proponents Should Appreciate
  • WiMAX Certification
  • WiMAX in Relation to International Engineering Standards
  • WiMAX Spectrum
  • WiMAX―A Puncher’s Chance
  • Are WiMAX and LTE Really Enemies?
• LTE Deployment Plans By Major Operators and
  • By Region
  • North America
  • Latin, South America, and the Caribbean
  • Eastern Europe
  • Western Europe
  • Asia/Pacific
  • Middle East and Africa
• Cellular and Mobile LTE Subscription Forecasts
• Device Shipments
  • Portable Devices
  • Mobile Handsets
  • Residential Devices
  • M2M Devices
  • Roll-Up Tables
• Glossary
• Related In-Stat Reports
• Appendix

List of Tables

• Table 1. Bit Rates for Mobile Applications
• Table 2. LTE/HSPA Techniques That Can Either Increase Capacity or Accelerate Bit Rates
• Table 3. Worldwide Cellular and Mobile WiMAX Subscription Forecasts by Technology, 2007–2013 (in Thousands)
• Table 4. Definition of Portable Devices
• Table 5. Assumptions About Monthly Data Use by Device, 2007–2013 (GB per Device Type per Month)
• Table 6. LTE External Client Device Forecast, 2007–2013 (Units Thousands)
• Table 7. LTE-Enabled Mobile PC Forecast, 2007–2013 (Units Thousands)
• Table 8. LTE-Enabled Mobile Internet Devices Forecast, 2007–2013 (Units Thousands)
• Table 9. LTE-Enabled Ultra-Mobile PC Forecast, 2007–2013 (Units Thousands)
• Table 10. LTE-Enabled Portable Media Players Forecast, 2007–2013 (Units Thousands)
• Table 11. LTE-Enabled Handheld Game Consoles Forecast, 2007–2013 (Units Thousands)
• Table 12. LTE-Enabled Handsets Forecast, 2007–2013 (Units Thousands)
• Table 13. LTE-Enabled Residential Devices Forecast, 2007–2013 (Units Thousands)
• Table 14. Total New LTE-Enabled End Devices Forecast, 2007–2013 (Units Thousands)
• Table 15. Total LTE Device Roll-Up Forecast, by Region, 2007–2013 (Units Thousands)
• Table 16. Total Cumulative LTE Devices Forecast, by Type of Device, 2007–2013 (Units Thousands)
• Table 17. LTE Device Bandwidth Usage as a Percentage of Overall Wireless Backhaul
• Table 18. Total Number of Unique LTE Subscribers, 2007–2013 (In Thousands)
• Table 19. 3G/3.5G Standards Matrix
• Table 20. LTE, LTE Advanced, 802.16e WiMAX, and 802.16m WiMAX

List of Figures

• Figure 1. WiMAX Forum Working Groups
• Figure 2. Worldwide Cellular and Mobile WiMAX Subscription Forecasts by Technology, 2007–2013 (in Thousands)

WiMAXではなく3Gの成功のために妨害される4G LTE

アリゾナ州スコッツデール、2010年2月1日
次世代のモバイルブロードバンド規格であるLTE(Long term evolution)は、無線技術の次なる飛躍のための選択であることは間違いないと、米国調査会社インスタット社は報告している。4Gの初期市場においてはWiMAXが競争技術とみられていたが、そのような状況もすでに落ち着いている。携帯電話会社が、既に導入したインフラを利用しようとしているために、3Gネットワーク、HSPA、HSPA+ネットワークが推進され、LTEの採用は妨げられるだろう。

「LTEにはまだ、いくつかの大きな問題がある。それは、スペクトル不足、SN比(信号雑音比、signal-noise ratio)、特許の不確定さやロイヤリティプールの不足である。4G LTEに向かう移行が遅れていることは確かである」と、インスタット社のアナリストAllen Nogee氏は語る。

インスタット社は、下記についても調査した。

• LTE展開は、事実上2010年に始まるだろう。北米とアジア太平洋地域で、最初に普及し始めるだろう
• LTEは、最終的には4Gの選択肢となるだろうが、モバイルWiMAXもそれ以上に展開が進み、それぞれの展開があるだろう。2013年には、世界のモバイルWiMAX加入者数はLTEの5倍のとなるだろう
• 最初に発売されるLTE加入者向けのデバイスは、ドングル、ネットワークカード、USBドングルなどの外部クライアントであるだろう。LTE携帯端末の大規模な出荷は、2012年後半以降だろう

インスタット社の調査レポート「世界のLTE市場調査:採用の動向、WiMAXの戦略、キャリアの導入計画など ー The Road to LTE Worldwide: Is WiMAX Really the Enemy?」は、4G無線技術の世界市場を調査している。3Gから4Gへの無線技術の移行を分析し、地域毎の主要オペレータのLTE採用、2013年までのセルラーとモバイルLTE加入者予測、2013年までのLTE外部クライアントデバイスとPC出荷数の予測などを記載している。

(原文)
4G LTE Gated by 3G Success, not WiMAX

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz., February 1, 2010 - Long term evolution (LTE), the next-generation mobile broadband standard, is the clear choice for the next leap in wireless technology, reports In-Stat.  While WiMax appeared to be a competitor for 4G early on, that battle is now largely resolved.  LTE’s deployment will primarily be impeded by the success of 3G networks and HSPA and HSPA+ networks as mobile operators seek to leverage their installed infrastructure.

“LTE still has several glaring issues,” says Allen Nogee, In-Stat analyst. “These include lack of spectrum, signal-to-noise ratio, and non-established patent and royalty pool.  It’s clear that the shift toward 4G LTE will be gradual and protracted.”

Recent research by In-Stat found the following:

• LTE deployments will effectively begin in 2010.  North America and Asia/Pacific will be the first regions to deploy.
• While LTE will ultimately become the 4G standard of choice, Mobile Wi-Max is much more mature in deployment and has a distinct niche. Even by 2013, Mobile Wi-Max will have more than 5 times as many global subscribers as LTE.
• External clients, such as dongles, network cards, and USB dongles will be the first LTE subscriber devices sold.  LTE mobile handsets will not start shipping in major volumes until 2H12.  
• WiMAX deployments have given chipset manufacturers, device manufacturers, and infrastructure suppliers real-world experience.

Recent In-Stat research, The Road to LTE Worldwide: Is WiMAX Really the Enemy? (#IN1004525WBB), covers the worldwide market for 4G wireless technology. It includes:

• Examination of the evolution of 3G to 4G wireless technology.
• LTE deployment plans by major operators and by region.
• Cellular and mobile LTE subscription forecasts through 2013.
• Forecasts of LTE external clients device and PC shipments through 2013.