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目次

The global erosion of asset prices, reduction in credit availability, and declining personal and business income will be reflected in a 19.6% drop in semiconductor revenue in 2009. Declining confidence levels, resulting from recent shocks and increased uncertainty about the future, will lead to more conservative spending practices even after liquidity improves and the economic recovery is well underway. Assuming that governments and central banks around the world continue the aggressive fiscal and monetary actions that they began to take in 2008 and that these actions are largely successful, growth in 2010 is forecasted to be modest, at 11.8%, followed by 9.7% in 2011 and 8.8% in 2012.

This report analyzes the overall economy and resulting underlying demand for semiconductors and how the demand matches with projections for semiconductor capacity, as well as other underlying factors that will affect semiconductor demand and pricing.

All historical and forecasted data in this report are consistent with the data in the companion report IN0904560SSF "Global Semiconductor End-Use Forecast?Is Anyone Buying?" 

The report provides:

• WW and regional GDP forecasts
• Semiconductor capital expenditure forecast
• WW semiconductor unit, ASP, and revenue forecasts
• Semiconductor revenue forecasts by region and WSTS product categories 

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• Introduction
• The Story So Far
• Environment and Assumptions
• The Economy
• The Semiconductor Industry and the Economy
• Regional Economies
• US and the Americas
• Europe
• Japan
• Asia/Pacific
• Worldwide Economy
• The Semiconductor Market
• Some Specific Semiconductor Markets
• Supply
• Capacity
• Wafer Fab Capacity and Utilization
• Capital Spending
• Worldwide Semiconductor Forecast
• Products
• Integrated Circuits and Discretes
• Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor
• Integrated Circuit Products
• Digital Bipolar
• Analog
• MOS Micro
• Logic
• MOS Memory
• Regional
• Methodology
• Related In-Stat Reports

List of Tables

• Table 1. Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and ASP (US$)
• Table 2. Annual Changes in GDP, by Major Region, 2004–2013
• Table 3. Worldwide GDP Annual Growth, 2004–2013
• Table 4. Semiconductor Revenue by Major End-Use Market, 1996–2007 (US$ in Billions)
• Table 5. MOS IC Wafer Fab Statistics (Capacity and Starts in Thousands of 8-Inch Equivalent Wafers per Week), Past Three Years
• Table 6. Semiconductor Industry Equipment Capital Expenditures, and Total Revenue, 2003–2012 (US$ in Billions)
• Table 7. Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and ASP (US$)
• Table 8. Semiconductor Revenue by Product, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Table 9. Worldwide Revenue―Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor and Integrated Circuit, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Table 10. Worldwide Unit Shipments―Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor and Integrated Circuit, 2004–2013 (Units in Billions)
• Table 11. Worldwide ASP―Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor and Integrated Circuit, 2004–2013 (US$)
• Table 12. Worldwide Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor Revenue, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
• Table 13. Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor Revenue, by Region, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Table 14. Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1998–2008 (US$ in Billions)
• Table 15. Worldwide Integrated Circuit Revenue, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
• Table 16. Integrated Circuit Revenue, by Region, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Table 17. Worldwide Integrated Circuit Revenue, by Product Type, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Table 18. Worldwide Integrated Circuit Unit Shipments, by Product Type, 2004–2013 (in Billions)
• Table 19. Worldwide Integrated Circuit ASP, by Product Type, 2004–2013 (US$)
• Table 20. Worldwide Digital Bipolar Revenue, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
• Table 21. Digital Bipolar Revenue, by Region, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Table 22. Digital Bipolar Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1997–2004 (US$ in Billions)
• Table 23. Worldwide Analog Revenue, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
• Table 24. Analog Revenue, by Region, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Table 25. Analog Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1998–2008 (US$ in Billions)
• Table 26. Worldwide MOS Micro Revenue, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
• Table 27. MOS Micro Revenue, by Region, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Table 28. MOS Micro Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1998–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Table 29. Worldwide Logic Revenue, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
• Table 30. Logic Revenue, by Region, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Table 31. Logic Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1998–2008 (US$ in Billions)
• Table 32. Worldwide MOS Memory Revenue, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
• Table 33. MOS Memory Revenue, by Region, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Table 34. MOS Memory Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1998–2008 (US$ in Billions)
• Table 35. Semiconductor Revenue, by Region, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)

List of Figures

• Figure 1. Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and ASP (US$)
• Figure 2. Annual Percent Changes in Worldwide Semiconductor Revenues, Unit Shipments, Equipment CapEx, and Worldwide Real GDP, 1986–2007
• Figure 3. Annual Percent Changes in Worldwide Semiconductor Revenues and Worldwide Real GDP, 1978–2007
• Figure 4. Distribution of World GDP, by Major Region (2007)
• Figure 5. Distribution of Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue, by Major Region (2007)
• Figure 6. Annual Changes in GDP, by Major Region, 1993–2013
• Figure 7. Worldwide GDP Annual Growth, 1980–2013
• Figure 8. Semiconductor Revenue Share by Major End-Use Market, 1996–2007
• Figure 9. Trending of Silicon Wafer Shipments, IC Wafer Starts, and IC Unit Shipments
• Figure 10. MOS IC Wafer Fab Utilization (%)
• Figure 11. IC Wafer Fab Utilization (%), and IC ASP (US$)
• Figure 12. MOS IC Wafer Fabs Capacity and Wafer Starts
• Figure 13. MOS IC Wafer Capacity by Process Geometry
• Figure 14. Semiconductor Industry Capital Equipment Expenditures and Revenue, 2003–2012 (US$ in Billions)
• Figure 15. Semiconductor Equipment Book-to-Bill Ratio (North America)
• Figure 16. North America Semiconductor Equipment Capital Spending (US$ in Millions)
• Figure 17. Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and ASP (US$)
• Figure 18. Semiconductor Revenue, by Product, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Figure 19. Semiconductor Revenue Share, by Product, 2004–2013
• Figure 20. Worldwide Revenues―Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor and Integrated Circuit, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Figure 21. Worldwide Unit Shipments―Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor and Integrated Circuit, 2004–2013 (Units in Billions)
• Figure 22. Worldwide ASP―Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor and Integrated Circuit, 2004–2013 (US$)
• Figure 23. Worldwide Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor Revenue, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
• Figure 24. Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor Revenue, by Region, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Figure 25. Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1998–2008
• Figure 26. Worldwide Integrated Circuit Revenue, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
• Figure 27. Integrated Circuit Revenue, by Region, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Figure 28. Worldwide Integrated Circuit Revenue, by Product Type, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Figure 29. Worldwide Integrated Circuit Unit Shipments, by Product Type, 2004–2013 (in Billions)
• Figure 30. Worldwide Integrated Circuit ASP, by Product Type, 2004–2013 (US$)
• Figure 31. Worldwide Digital Bipolar Revenue, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
• Figure 32. Digital Bipolar Revenue, by Region, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Figure 33. Digital Bipolar Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1997–2004
• Figure 34. Worldwide Analog Revenue, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
• Figure 35. Analog Revenue, by Region, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Figure 36. Analog Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1998–2008
• Figure 37. Worldwide MOS Micro Revenue, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
• Figure 38. MOS Micro Revenue, by Region, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Figure 39. MOS Micro Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1998–2008
• Figure 40. Worldwide Logic Revenue, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
• Figure 41. Logic Revenue, by Region, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Figure 42. Logic Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1998–2008
• Figure 43. Worldwide MOS Memory Revenue, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
• Figure 44. MOS Memory Revenue by Region, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Figure 45. MOS Memory Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1998–2008
• Figure 46. Semiconductor Revenue, by Region, 2004–2013 (US$ in Billions)
• Figure 47. Semiconductor Revenue, by Region, 2004–2013 (%)

世界的不況でさんざんな2009年の半導体市場

アリゾナ州スコッツデール、2009年2月23日
今年、世界的な景気後退のために、半導体販売は壊滅的となるだろうと、米国調査会社インスタット社は報告する。世界の半導体収益は2009年に20％減少して1992億ドルとなるだろう。少なくとも2012年までは、2007年のレベルまで回復しないだろう。

「不況のショックによる信用収縮や将来性への不確実性の高まりによって、投資はより保守的になり、それは、流動性が向上したり、景気が回復し始めても継続するだろう。企業と消費者の心理の回復と過剰生産を克服することが、回復とその後の成長につながるだろう」とインスタット社のアナリストJim McGregor氏は語る。

インスタット社は、下記についても調査した。

• 2009年の後半に回復が始まると予測されるが、2010年の収益の成長は11.8%と控え目になるだろう
• デジタルシグナルプロセッサ(DSP)の収入は、2008年に14.9%下落して66億ドルで、2003年以来の最低レベルとなった
• 最新のサイクルでは、半導体製造工場の稼働率は2008年初頭に90%でピークに達し、第3四半期に87%に下がった
• この半導体市場の停滞は長く、深刻なものと見られ、その結果、企業合併や吸収、企業救済、再構築などの業界再編が行われ、最終的には半導体の生産能力は落ちるだろう

インスタット社の調査レポート「世界の半導体製品市場調査 2009年:市場概況、CAPEX、カテゴリ別出荷台数/収益予測 - Global Semiconductor Product Market Forecast - Help Wanted: Spenders and Lenders」は、世界の半導体製品市場を調査している。世界と地域毎の経済分析と、半導体需要への影響、製造能力の総計予測と需要、需要と価格に影響する要因などを記載している。2013年までの世界と地域毎のGDP予測、2013年までの半導体投資予測、ウェハファブの製造能力と稼動、2013年までの世界の半導体出荷数、ASP、収益の予測、地域ごととWSTS(世界半導体市場統計、World Semiconductor Trade Statistics) の半導体製品カテゴリー毎の半導体収益予測、主要なエンドユーズセグメント毎の半導体収益予測も記載している。

(原文)
Down Economy = Bloody 2009 Semiconductor Market

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz., February 23, 2009 - The global recession will wreak havoc on semiconductor sales this year, reports In-Stat. Worldwide semiconductor revenue will decline by nearly 20% in 2009 to $199.2 billion, the high-tech market research firm says.   The industry will not recover to 2007 levels until at least 2012.

“Declining confidence resulting from recent shocks and increased uncertainty about the future will lead to more conservative spending even after liquidity improves and the economic recovery is well underway,” says Jim McGregor, In-Stat analyst. “Restoring consumer and business confidence and overcoming excess capacity will be key to recovery and subsequent growth.”

Recent research by In-Stat found the following:

• Although recovery is expected to start in the second half of 2009, revenue growth in 2010 will be modest, at 11.8%.
• Digital Signal Processor (DSP) Revenue declined by 14.9% in 2008 to $6.6B, its lowest level since 2003.
• In its most recent cycle, semiconductor fab capacity utilization peaked at 90% early in 2008, and dropped to 87% in the third quarter.
• The downturn is expected to be deep enough, and long enough, for semiconductor capacity to ultimately fall, as a result of mergers, acquisitions, bailouts, restructuring, and other industry realignments.

Recent In-Stat research, Global Semiconductor Product Market Forecast—Help Wanted: Spenders and Lenders (#IN0904559SSF), covers the worldwide market for semiconductor products. It includes an in-depth global and regional economic analysis and resulting impacts on demand for semiconductors, how demand stacks up with projections for manufacturing capacity, and other factors affecting demand and pricing.

The research provides:

• Worldwide and regional GDP forecasts through 2013
• Semiconductor capital expenditure forecast through 2013
• Wafer fab capacity and utilization (includes trending for wafer starts)
• Worldwide semiconductor unit, ASP, and revenue forecasts through 2013
• Semiconductor revenue forecasts by region and by WSTS semiconductor product categories
• Top line semiconductor revenue forecast by end-use segment