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インスタット社の調査レポート「3Gから4Gへの移行:LTEとモバイルWiMAXの技術、オペレータの戦略、2013年までの予測 - The Road to 4G: LTE and WiMAX Lead the Way Worldwide」は、4G無線技術の世界市場を調査した。世界のモバイルWiMAXとLTEの製品毎の予測、成長市場、モバイルオペレータの採用計画などを記載している。

4G technologies are formally those that will meet the ITU's IMT-Advanced requirements. The two technologies that are expected to meet these requirements include LTE Advanced and 802.16m WiMAX. 4G technologies are extensions of what we are just beginning to see today in mobile WiMAX and in LTE.

With 802.16e WiMAX deployments already launched worldwide, LTE proponents have jumped up their efforts to speed up development, so they are not left behind. Overall, In-Stat expects that mobile WiMAX will ultimately outpace LTE over the forecast period, due to timing of network roll-outs. Mobile WiMAX effectively came on the scene in 2006 with South Korea's WiBro. Comparatively, the earliest commercial LTE deployment will be 2009. Japan's NTT DoCoMo is expected to begin its commercial services in the late 2009/2010 timeframe.

In-Stat expects that mobile WiMAX and LTE subscriptions will represent only a miniscule portion of the total 2G/3G/4G subscriptions over the next five years. Even in 2013, In-Stat expects that GSM/GPRS/EDGE will account for nearly 2.8 billion subscriptions, representing more than 55 percent of the total 4.8 billion 2G/3G/4G subscriptions expected in 2013. 

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• Introduction
• 4G Technologies Overview
• What Do We Mean by “4G”?
• LTE and WiMAX Technology Overviews
• LTE
• LTE Advanced
• 802.16e WiMAX
• IEEE 802.16m
• UMB
• 3G Landscape Today and 4G Expectations
• State of 3G Today
• HSPA Evolution
• I-HSPA
• Mobile Operators’ Deployment Plans and Challenges
• Cellular and Mobile WiMAX Subscription Forecasts
• Device and Subscriber Forecasts
• Mobile WiMAX and LTE Forecasts
• Device and Component Vendors Matrix
• Methodology
• Glossary
• Related In-Stat Reports

List of Tables

• Table 1. LTE, LTE Advanced, 802.16e WiMAX, and 802.16m WiMAX Matrix
• Table 2. 3G/3.5G Standards Matrix
• Table 3. Worldwide Cellular and Mobile WiMAX Subscription Forecasts per Technology, 2007–2013 (in Thousands)
• Table 4. Mobile WiMAX and LTE External Client Forecasts, 2007–2013 (in Thousands)
• Table 5. Mobile WiMAX and LTE in Mobile PCs Forecasts, 2007–2013 (in Thousands)
• Table 6. Mobile WiMAX and LTE in Handsets Forecasts, 2007–2013 (in Thousands)
• Table 7. Mobile WiMAX and LTE in Portable Media Players Forecasts, 2007–2013 (in Thousands)
• Table 8. Mobile WiMAX and LTE in Handheld Games Forecasts, 2007–2013 (in Thousands)
• Table 9. Mobile WiMAX and LTE in Mobile Internet Devices Forecasts, 2007–2013 (in Thousands)
• Table 10. Mobile WiMAX and LTE in Ultra Mobile PCs Forecasts, 2007–2013 (in Thousands)
• Table 11. Total Mobile WiMAX and LTE Portable End-Devices Forecasts, 2007–2013 (in Thousands)
• Table 12. 3G/4G Equipment and Component Providers Matrix

List of Figures

• Figure 1. 2G/3G/4G Subscriptions per Technology, 2007–2013 (in Thousands)
• Figure 2. Worldwide Cellular and Mobile WiMAX Subscription Forecasts per Technology, 2007–2013 (in Thousands)

LTEとWiMAXは4G市場の支配権を争い、UMBは後退

アリゾナ州スコッツデール、2008年10月22日
2008年、ウルトラモバイルブロードバンド(UMB)を置き去りにして、LTEとWiMAXという2つの技術によって無線4Gへの道が開かれたと、米国調査会社インスタット社は報告する。IMT-Advancedにより適合性の高いこの2つの4G技術は、いまだ商用化には程遠い。LTE Advancedも802.16m WiMAXも、モバイルの100Mbpsのスループットや据置の1Gbpsのスループットを実現するものであり、この非常に高いスループットこそITUのIMT-Advancedの重要な部分なのである。

「モバイルWiMAXは、2006年に韓国のWiBroとして共に登場した。2009年に最初のLTEの商業展開が始まるだろう。インスタット社は、モバイルWiMAXのネットワークが整うため、今後数年間はLTEを上回ると予測している」とインスタット社のアナリストGemma Tedesco氏は語る。 

インスタット社は、下記についても調査した。

• Sprint/ClearwireのモバイルWiMAXの成功が、世界の大手オペレータのWiMAX採用に大きく影響するとみられている
• モバイルWiMAXとLTEは、2013年までは2G/3G/4Gセルラー加入者のほんのわずかな部分に過ぎないだろう。GSM/EDGE/GPRSが、48億加入者数の55%以上を占めるだろう
• HSPAは802.16e WiMAXの競争相手となり、LTEの初公開を遅らせるかもしれない

インスタット社の調査レポート「3Gから4Gへの移行:LTEとモバイルWiMAXの技術、オペレータの戦略、2013年までの予測 - The Road to 4G: LTE and WiMAX Lead the Way Worldwide」は、4G無線技術の世界市場を調査した。世界のモバイルWiMAXとLTEの製品毎の予測、成長市場、モバイルオペレータの採用計画などを記載している。

(原文)
With UMB Left Behind, LTE and WiMAX Battle for 4G Supremacy

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz., October 22, 2008 - In 2008, the road to wireless 4G cleared a bit, with ultra-mobile broadband (UMB) left publicly by the roadside, narrowing the path to two technologies: LTE and WiMAX, reports In-Stat.  Both 4G technologies, meaning those technologies that are expected to meet the requirements of IMT-Advanced, are far from being commercially deployed, the high-tech market research firm says. Both LTE Advanced and 802.16m WiMAX are being specially crafted to offer 100Mbps mobile throughput and 1Gbps stationary throughput; these extremely high throughput capabilities are expected to be a critical part of the ITU’s IMT-Advanced requirements.

“Mobile WiMAX effectively came on the scene in 2006 with South Korea’s WiBro; the earliest commercial LTE deployment will be in 2009,” says Gemma Tedesco, In-Stat analyst. “Overall, In-Stat expects that mobile WiMAX will ultimately outpace LTE over the next few years due to timing of network roll-outs.”

Recent research by In-Stat found the following:

• The success of the Sprint/Clearwire mobile WiMAX roll-out is expected to have a huge effect on whether or not large worldwide operators will roll out mobile WiMAX.
• Mobile WiMAX and LTE will represent only a miniscule portion of total 2G/3G/4G cellular subscriptions in 2013, with GSM/EDGE/GPRS expected to account for more than 55 percent of the total 4.8 billion subscriptions.
• HSPA may turn into 802.16e WiMAX’s true competitor, and also may delay LTE roll-outs.

Recent In-Stat research, The Road to 4G: LTE and WiMAX Lead the Way Worldwide (#IN0803987WBB), covers the worldwide market for 4G wireless technology. It provides forecasts for global mobile WiMAX and LTE by product type. Analysis of the developing marketplace for these technologies, including deployment plans of mobile operators, is included.