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テレビ市場予測:配信、コンテンツ販売、制作、収益はどこに?

Future TV

Distribution, Content Publishing, Production: Where is the Value?

 

出版社 出版年月電子媒体価格ページ数
IDATE
イダテ社
2017年12月Eur3,000
1-5ユーザライセンス(doc+ppt)
63

サマリー

オーディオビジュアル市場は、技術の急速な進化、新しい出版・コンテンツ配信企業の登場、消費パターンの変化によって近年かつてない混乱に直面している。フランスの調査会社イダテ社(IDATE)の調査レポートテレビ市場予測:配信、コンテンツ販売、制作、収益はどこに?」は、市場や競争環境の動向と不確実性を分析することで、2025年までの市場発展の4つのシナリオを提示している。シナリオの基礎となる仮説、リニアTV・ビデオオンデマンド市場のサブセグメントの詳細な調査を含む2015-2025年の市場概要、各シナリオがプロダクション、コンテンツ公開と配信、企業や消費者に与える影響を評価している。米国、英国、フランス、ドイツの4つの主要国のコンテンツ出版社、制作者、コンテンツ配信者間で収益がどのように分配されているかや、市場動向のシナリオや混乱のシナリオも記載している。

SUMMARY

In recent years, the audiovisual market has faced unprecedented disruption as technology has rapidly evolved, new publishing and content distribution players have emerged, and consumption patterns have changed. Although certain trends are already quite clear and can help us understand how the sector will evolve, there are still many uncertainties which leave considerable scope for what is possible.

By analysing trends and uncertainties related to the market and competitive environment, this report puts forward four possible scenarios for how the audiovisual market will evolve by 2025.

The study:

– explains the hypotheses on which the scenarios are based
– provides market figures between 2015 and 2025, including a detailed examination of the linear TV and video-on-demand market subsegments
– evaluates the impact of each scenario on players involved in production, content publishing and distribution, as well as on consumers

The report also analyses how the value is distributed between content publishing, production and content distribution players in four major countries (United States, United Kingdom, France and Germany), and how this value sharing will evolve by 2025 in a trend scenario and in a disruption scenario.


Geographic area & Players

Asia-Pacific
Europe  

France
Germany
United Kingdom

Latin America
Middle East & Africa
North America

United States

World

 

Slideshow

 

Future of television using a scenario approach

Trends and uncertainties

– Trends and uncertainties: Market environment
– Trends and uncertainties: Competitive environment

TV 2025 scenario characteristics
Four potential scenarios for the future TV industry

– Low-Cost scenario
– Convergence scenario
– Disruption scenario
– Syndication scenario

2025 TV scenarios in figures

– Four scenarios for the future of the audiovisual sector, 2015-2025
– Global audiovisual market by service, 2015-2025
– Global linear TV market, 2015-2025

– Global video-on-demand market, 2015-2025

The new value distribution

– Content producers are the main beneficiaries of the sector’s evolution
– Value distribution by segment, 2016-2025

 


 

Other details

  • Reference: M17240MRA
  • Delivery: on the DigiWorld Interactive platform
  • Languages available: French, English
  • Tags: audiovisual sector, content publishing, distribution, future TV, Internet platforms, IPTV, linear TV, OTT, OTT services, production, Television, TV services, Video on demand, VOD

 



目次

1. Executive summary

2. Methodology

2.1. General methodology of IDATE DigiWorld’s reports
2.2. Methodology specific to this report
2.3. Definitions

3. Evolution of the market environment
 

3.1. Economic and societal context
3.1.1. Trends
3.1.2. Uncertainties
3.2. Regulatory framework more neutral between TV services and OTT services, and more protective of consumers
3.2.1. Trends
3.2.2. Uncertainties
3.3. The IT migration of television
3.3.1. Trends
3.3.2. Uncertainties

3.4. Rapid change in consumer demand
3.4.1. Trends
3.4.2. Uncertainties

4. Evolution of the competitive environment
 

4.1. Importance of content
4.1.1. Trends
4.1.2. Uncertainties
4.2. Competition from Internet platforms
4.2.1. Trends
4.2.2. Uncertainties
4.3. Role of consumer electronics and manufacturers
4.3.1. Trends
4.3.2. Uncertainties
4.4. Restructuring of the value chain
4.4.1. Trends
4.4.2. Uncertainties
4.5. “Consumactors” able to influence content production
4.5.1. Trends
4.5.2. Uncertainties

5. TV 2025 scenarios
 

5.1. Low-Cost scenario: linear TV / VOD coexistence with race to the bottom over prices
5.1.1. Scenario description
5.1.2. The scenario in figures
5.1.3. Impact on the market
5.2. Convergence scenario: vertical integration of networks/content, content is a loss leader, the value resides in enhanced connectivity
5.2.1. Scenario description
5.2.2. The scenario in figures
5.2.3. Impact on the market
5.3. Disruption scenario: disappearance of local linear TV and the emergence of globalised VOD
5.3.1. Scenario description
5.3.2. The scenario in figures
5.3.3. Impact on the market
5.4. Syndication scenario: TV brands remain key players and capture the value
5.4.1. Scenario description
5.4.2. The scenario in figures5.4.3. Impact on the market
5.5. The new value distribution
5.5.1. Overview of analysis calculations
5.5.2. Analysis

List of tables and figures

Tables
Table 1: Key changes in the new General Data Protection Regulation
Table 2: Integration of TV production companies by TV broadcasters
Table 3: Integration of MCNs by TV broadcasters
Table 4: Examples of horizontal concentration movements in distribution
Table 5: Low-cost scenario description
Table 6: Convergence scenario description
Table 7: Disruption scenario description
Table 8: Syndication scenario description

Figures
Figure 1: Global population growth by region
Figure 2: Global GDP growth by region
Figure 3: Growth in one-person households in the United States, 1960-2016
Figure 4: Global growth of mobile speeds, by network
Figure 5: Distribution of time spent watching television, by device, 2010-2016
Figure 6: Proportion of time spent consuming video content, by type of content, 2010-2016
Figure 7: Most popular subscription OTT/SVOD services in North America, early 2017
Figure 8: Most used transactional video-on-demand video sites in North America, early 2017
Figure 9: Average time spent per individual consuming linear, timeshifted and online television, United States and France, 2016
Figure 10: The television set is still the most popular device, even for streaming video
Figure 11: Consumer interest in individualised consumption
Figure 12: Consumer interest in a personalised pay-TV offering rather than a pre-set package
Figure 13: Time adults spend consuming media daily, United States, 2017
Figure 14: Proportion of video in total media consumption time, United States, 2017
Figure 15: Growth in the fees received by the major sports leagues during recent renegotiations for the rights to broadcast on national markets
Figure 16: Price growth of Premier League rights in the United Kingdom
Figure 17: Netflix’s and Amazon’s annual spending on content production and acquisition, 2013-2017
Figure 18: Daily video views on Facebook and Snapchat worldwide
Figure 19: Monthly spending on satellite or cable TV access in US and Canadian households, Q4 2016 – Q1 2017
Figure 20: The power of influencers among consumers
Figure 21: Four potential scenarios for the future TV industry
Figure 22: Global audiovisual market by service, 2015-2025 – Low-Cost scenario
Figure 23: Global linear TV market, 2015-2025 – Low-Cost scenario
Figure 24: Global VOD market, 2015-2025 – Low-Cost scenario
Figure 25: Global audiovisual market by region, 2015-2025 – Low-Cost scenario
Figure 26: Global audiovisual market by service, 2015-2025 – Convergence scenario
Figure 27: Global linear TV market, 2015-2025 – Convergence scenario
Figure 28: Global VOD market, 2015-2025 – Convergence scenario
Figure 29: Global audiovisual market by region, 2015-2025 – Convergence scenario
Figure 30: Global audiovisual market by service, 2015-2025 – Disruption scenario
Figure 31: Global linear TV market, 2015-2025 – Disruption scenario
Figure 32: Global VOD market, 2015-2025 – Disruption scenario
Figure 33: Global audiovisual market by region, 2015-2025 – Disruption scenario
Figure 34: Global audiovisual market by service, 2015-2025 – Syndication scenario
Figure 35: Global linear TV market, 2015-2025 – Syndication scenario
Figure 36: Global VOD market, 2015-2025 – Syndication scenario
Figure 37: Global audiovisual market by region, 2015-2025 – Syndication scenario
Figure 38: Value distribution in the United States by segment, 2016-2025
Figure 39: Value distribution in the United Kingdom by segment, 2016-2025
Figure 40: Value distribution in France by segment, 2016-2025
Figure 41: Value distribution in Germany by segment, 2016-2025

 

 

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プレスリリース

[プレスリリース原文]

Future TV 2025 : who will win?

 


Jacques Bajon,
Director of Media and Digital Contents Business Unit, IDATE DigiWorld

In developed countries, the audiovisual sector is experiencing a period of relative stagnation, which will probably be long-term and therefore lead to many challenges for players in the ecosystem. Although the Internet is the major cause of disruption, there are many factors at play.


20/12/2016

IDATE DigiWorld drew up 4 scenarios in the last report “Future TV 2025” based on the market environment evolution and the new competitive situation analysis:

Landscape  market evolution 

• Fundamental regulatory choices: confirmation of Net neutrality, reconciliation of obligations for linear and non-linear services, reform of regional rights allocation.

• Heterogeneous global growth: emerging markets driving growth.

• IT playing an increasing role in video distribution: 'centralisation' with the cloud, the growth of streaming, the growing role played by captured consumer data.

• Increasingly significant personalised video consumption, on-demand and multi-screen ('TV as a service').

The new competitive situation

With an increasingly influential Internet sector, through pure players quickly establishing themselves in the market, accentuating the phenomenon of disintermediation of established players.

Content is more than ever king and ownership of it is crucial, hence increased competition with exclusive premium content is sending rights prices soaring, and new financial backers of original production are emerging.

Also, the market is experiencing a period of concentration (both horizontal and vertical), driven by restructuring of the telecom operators market and the race for control of content.

In this way, new forms of monetisation are appearing in an environment where pay-TV is experiencing downward pressure due to the polarisation between premium and low-cost, the role of service bundles, the development of programmatic advertising and freemium models.

The Trend scenario: a 2,4% expected global growth per year by 2025

The Trend scenario assumes that 2010-2016 trends will continue. In this scenario, the major determining factors are stable. On-demand consumption of audiovisual services continues to grow without destabilising the linear market. The regulatory status quo maintains a local approach to markets. Finally, we see a steady rise in influence of OTT players.

This scenario corresponds to slow growth of the global market, 2.4% per year on average:

• Growth driven primarily by emerging countries

• Stagnating Western European and North American markets

• An evolving market landscape

Four scenarios forecasted

Three others scenarios have been forecasted, each is in favor the stakeholder kind in particular:

“Convergence” scenario: In the Convergence scenario, TV-Internet-telecom bundled offerings predominate. They enable better prices to be offered and provide a complete range of linear TV and on-demand services, as well as music and games services. Multiscreen consumption, fixed and mobile, is pushed by one (or many) of the operators, providing permanent connectivity to the range of services.

“Disruption” scenario: Personalised video consumption predominates in the Disruption scenario, with more uniform consumer tastes on a global scale. The barriers to worldwide content distribution have collapsed, along with local content regulations. Global players controlling content rights have appeared. The leading Internet players (e-commerce, viral platforms and social networks) play a central role, offering a blend of premium and professional UGC content. The value of the market is under pressure within an oligopolistic OTT video sector on a global scale.

“Syndication” scenario: The Syndication scenario is the most cooperative and most favourable to the TV sector. Similar to how local television stations are affiliated with national 'networks' in the United States, television companies could become affiliated with large national and regional 'entertainment operators', relying on the common core of content they provide, and providing market expertise, relationships to national advertisers, local programming, and their brands and customers in exchange. This transformation takes place in both the broadcast and OTT sectors.

 

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