目次
価格・ご注文についてこの調査レポートは、主要通信市場の動向と競合環境における重大な変化へのキャリアの戦略的対応について広範に分析し、2020年の市場展望を掲載しています。
Drawing on a number of forward-looking studies carried out by IDATE teams, this report provides readers with a portrait of the market in 2020 along with a comprehensive analysis of key telecom market trends, and of carriers’ strategic responses to the profound changes taking place in their competitive environment.
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Key Questions
- What are the key long-term consumption patterns for telecom services?
- What are the potential take-up levels and revenue generated by the different fixed (broadband, voice, VoD, IPTV, VoIP) and mobile (voice, data, VoD, IPTV, VAS) services?
- How will market forces play out for telecom carriers, between pressure from Internet services and changing patterns in calling markets?
- What are carriers’ main strategic options for tackling changing consumption patterns and shifting competitive balances?
Market data for 2010-2020 for each of the countries examined
- France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, the United States
- Subscribers - Penetration rates - Revenue
Methodology
Methodology: a rigorous approach
This report provides development scenarios for the telecom services sector up to 2020, based on macro-economic scenarios that incorporate hypotheses on the market environment, lifestyles and consumer profiles, and which combine:
- Analysis of key development factors: consumption, access, services, financing players
- Portrait of the telecom industry in 2020: IDATE provides its views on the expected development of each of the key issues being examined, and combines them to paint a portrait of how the telecom services sector will evolve up to 2020.
- Benchmark scenario figures: the scope of analysis includes developed countries, and benchmark scenario figures are applied to the United States and to the five main European markets: Germany, Spain, France, Italy and the UK.
Portrait of the future industry and key figures
IDATE has identified the key variables shaping the way telecom service usage will evolve. By combining the most likely development scenarios for each factor, IDATE has obtained a series of exclusive scenarios and chosen the benchmark scenario from among them, for which we provide detailed figures. The effects and scope of these developments make it possible to establish a detailed portrait of the future telecom services landscape, along with a set of benchmark figures and market data and forecasts for each country up to 2020.
- Penetration rate (% of households)
- Subscribers (million)
- Revenues (million EUR)
Fixed Services
- Broadband Access
- of which Ultra Broadband Access
- of which other Broadband Access - Voice only Access
- VoD
- IPTV
- Managed VAS (incl.VoIP)
- Fixed Voice (excl. VoIP) Mobile Services
Mobile Services
- Data Access only (cards & 3G dongles)
- Data & Voice Access
- Voice Access
- VoD
- IPTV
- VAS
Case Studies
- Bazile Telecom, MVNO: end of the all-purpose model
- BskyB: bundling strategy
- BT-Ribbit: building a platform
- Deutsche Telekom: portal 2.0
- Iliad/Free: digital home manager
- Lebara Mobile, MVNO: end of the all-purpose model • Orange: digital home manager
- Orange in Africa: growth outlets in emerging economies
- Telefónica: portal 2.0, highly customized content selection
- Telefónica Tcloud: building a platform
- Telefónica: growth outlets in emerging economies
- Verizon FiOS: vertical integration
TOP
1. Executive Summary
2. Methodology
3. How telecom consumption and the industry itself will evolve over the long term
3.1. The environment: a pervasive and globalized Internet
- Broadband households
- Multipurpose devices
- A fractured personal ID, but which can be unified
- Telco collectives
- An ambient, hybrid and inconsistent network
- Plethora of content
- The global village
3.2. Telecom markets’ long-term development
3.2.1. Video usage over the long term
- Role of video in the time spent online
- Fragmented communication
- Dividing lines between personal and business communications erased
- Sustainability of high-volume and free offers called into question
- Development of social networks
- User acceptance of digital IDs
3.2.2. Access
- Managed vs. own networks
- Natural enhancement of online consumption
- Mobile consumption needs
- Single vs. multipurpose device
- M2M and the Internet of things
- Congestion on mobile networks
3.2.3. Services
- Location-based solutions take hold
3.2.4. Financing
- Role of public monies in financing the network
- Role played by online advertising
- Net neutrality being called into question
3.2.5. Market structure and player strategies
- Competitive intensity
- New economies’ weight in the equation
3.3. Services and market segments
3.3.1. Summary description of the different socio-types
3.3.2. Service features by socio-type
3.4. Long-term impact on the telecom market structure
- An industry consolidated by continent
- Traffic segmentation
- Income from indirect sources (B2B2C)
- Marketing in the era of “hyper-sociology”
- Weight of emerging operators
- Increased differentiation between networks
- Control over traffic
- Free voice services
3.5. Snapshot: long-term view of the telecoms industry
- How existing services will evolve
- How the carrier business will evolve
4. Telecom market growth forecasts
4.1. Modelling exercise results
- Methodology
- Key variables
4.2. Rsults by country
- France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, the United States
5. Strategic paths available to carriers
5.1. Change in geographical coverage
5.2. Growth outlets in emerging economies
5.3. Change in product line
5.3.1. End of the all-purpose model
5.3.2. Creation of platforms
5.4. Change of position on the value chain
5.4.1. Vertical integration of networks and content
5.4.2. Portal 2.0: highly customized content selection
5.4.3. Digital home manager
6. Correlation of carrier strategies and consumption profiles
6.1. Sizeable increase in mobile data traffic
6.2. Daily consumption of digital video
6.3. Growing importance of user qualification
6.4. Social networking sites’ growing prominence in formal communications
6.5. Building a platform
6.6. Four development scenarios for ICT consumption
6.7. Key variables
6.8. Summary of the scenarios
6.9. Key development variables
