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The McClean Report 2019:IC産業を徹底分析・予測(第22版)

The McClean Report 2019

A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry

 

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IC Insights
ICインサイツ社
2019年1月US$7,990
マルチユーザコーポレートライセンス
900 740

◇ 上記年月はコアレポートの出版年月です。
◇ ページ数と図表数はコアレポート、マンスリーアップデート、中間レポートを併せた数です。コアレポートのみのページ数は400ページです。

サマリー

米国ICインサイツ社「The McCLEAN REPORT」は、世界の経済状況がIC業界に与える影響や設備投資計画の変化、多様な製品カテゴリの主要サプライヤ、製品ごとの成長予測、技術発展など、多面的、徹底的にIC業界を調査を行った結果を、2019年1月-12月の1年間提供する通年サービスです。

「The McCLEAN REPORT」には下記情報およびサービスが含まれています。

  • 2019年1月出版のコアレポート(400ページ以上)
  • 3月から11月まで(6月および7月を除く)計7回のEメールによるマンスリーアップデート
  • 中間レポート(200ページ以上)-7月発行
  • ICインサイツ社主催セミナーへの無料参加
  • The McCLEAN Report購入者向けWebcastへの無料アクセス

提供データ

  • IC市場、出荷台数、価格の詳細な予測データ
  • 資本支出と生産能力に関する情報
  • デバイス毎の主要ICサプライヤランキング
  • 製品市場の詳細データ(DRAM、MPU等)
  • IC技術と実装動向 など

「The McCLEAN REPORT」はIC業界を15のセクションに分け、詳細に調査しています。

各セクションの説明およびイメージはこちらをご覧ください。

コアレポート目次(抜粋)

  1. エグゼクティブ・サマリー
  2. 世界のIC業界の展望と周期
    1. 電子システム/半導体の関係
    2. マクロ経済
    3. IC産業の周期
    4. 世界の半導体市場
    5. IC市場の予測とデータベース
    6. IC市場の地域別予測
    7. 中国のIC産業戦略
  3. 主要ICサプライヤとICメーカ
    1. ICサプライヤの概要
    2. 半導体トップサプライヤーランキング
    3. IC製造工場の業界分析
  4. 設備投資と生産能力
    1. 半導体産業の設備投資展望
    2. IC産業の生産量動向
  5. デバイスタイプ別の市場概要
  6. メモリ概要
  7. フラッシュメモリと不揮発性メモリ
    1. フラッシュメモリー市場概観
    2. フラッシュメモリーの設備投資
    3. Intel-Micron Part Ways
    4. EEPROM/ROM/EPROM/その他のメモリー
  8. DRAMとSRAM
    1. DRAM市場レビュー
    2. DRAM出荷台数
    3. DRAMのビット量
    4. DDR4 DRAMの成長
    5. DRAMの設備投資
    6. DRAMサプライヤーの注目点
    7. SRAM市場レビュー
  9. マイクロコンポーネント市場概観
  10. マイクロコントローラとDSP
  11. マイクロプロセッサ(MPU)
    1. マイクロプロセッサ市場概観
    2. マイクロプロセッサ予測
    3. PCシステムのマイクロプロセッサ
  12. ASIC
    1. 概説
    2. ASIC市場概観
    3. ASICの製品タイプ別市場予測
    4. ASICの地域別市場シェア
    5. ゲートアレイ市場
    6. スタンダードセル市場
    7. プログラマブルロジックデバイス(PLD)市場
  13. アナログ
    1. アナログ市場
    2. 汎用アナログ製品
    3. 特殊用途向けアナログ製品
    4. アナログユニット
    5. 動向
  14. 技術動向
    1. 概説
    2. 研究開発(R&D)への支出
    3. マクロ動向
    4. 最新の技術進歩
  15. 実装
    1. 概観
    2. 実装タイプ別出荷数
    3. 実装動向全般
    4. ボールグリッドアレイ(BGA)
    5. チップスケールパッケージ
    6. パッケージオンパッケージ(PoP)
    7. ウエハーレベルパッケージ(WLP)
    8. ベア・ダイ組立
    9. 今後の課題

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Report Contents and Summaries

The McClean Report offers a broad look at the integrated circuit industry. The original 400+ page study (monthly updates provide approximately 500 more pages of information) is separated into 15 sections. About 400 tables, graphs, and illustrations in the original report clearly describe various market dynamics (another 400 tables, graphs, and illustrations are included in the monthly updates).

Besides covering worldwide IC market conditions and economic issues, there are chapters dedicated to each of the major IC product segments. Likewise, trends pertaining to capital spending and fab capacity, as well as technology developments and packaging, can be found in other sections of the report.

Links to summaries of each section in the report are provided below.

Section 1. Executive Summary

The executive summary serves as an introduction to The McClean Report. It highlights the major issues that are detailed in the report to give the reader an idea for what to expect in the sections that follow.

Section 2. Global IC Industry Outlook and Cycles

Electronic Industry Interdependence. This section starts by examining the relationship between the electronic systems market and the IC market, as well as how the IC market depends on the health of two smaller but important segments---the semiconductor equipment market and the semiconductor materials market.

Global Economics. The world and regional GDP environments are discussed and compared to the semiconductor market environment. In addition, regional electronic systems production statistics are provided and the effects of currency exchange rates on the electronic systems and semiconductor markets are covered.

Global Semiconductor Market Review and Forecast. An extensive historical review and five-year forecast through 2023 of the worldwide semiconductor market is provided. The forecasts are presented in terms of dollars, unit shipments, and average selling price, as well as by region and electronic system type. Forecast assumptions are also presented.

 

Section 3. Leading IC Suppliers and Foundries

Who and where are the world's leading suppliers of ICs? Find the answers in this section. The top 50 IC suppliers, top 50 semiconductor suppliers, and top 50 fabless IC suppliers are shown for 2017 and 2018.

In addition, a significant amount of coverage is included on IC foundries and the increasingly important role they play in the IC industry.

 

Section 4. Capital Spending and Capacity Trends

Capital spending and fab capacity levels are an important indicator of health in the semiconductor industry. As in many business situations, overspending leads to overcapacity, which leads to an imbalance in supply and demand. Therefore, it is useful to track spending (or production) and capacity trends in the industry.

Worldwide Capital Spending. In addition to a review and forecast of worldwide spending, rankings of the world's biggest spenders are provided. Spending levels within each of the world's geographic regions are compared to show which areas are most aggressive in advancing production capabilities and adding capacity. Spending by IC product type is also covered.

Capital Spending Cycles. While the pronounced cycles of the semiconductor market are well documented, this section shows that capital spending trends are even more volatile. Also shown is how closely changes in capital spending and IC average selling price have tracked over the past two decades.

Worldwide IC Capacity and Production. Capacity and production statistics include die-per-wafer trends, wafer start trends, capacity utilization rates, and revenue-per-wafer trends.

 

Section 5. Market Summary by Device Type

This section includes a detailed review and forecast (2016-2023) of each IC product category (e.g., data conversion ICs, standard cell ASICs, MPUs, DRAMs, etc.). The details include dollar volumes, unit shipments, and average selling prices. In addition, the average annual growth rates for each category are listed.

 

 

Section 6. Memory Market Overview

This section provides a brief summary of the MOS memory IC market and the various volatile and non-volatile memory products that make up the category. Trace the MOS memory market's best and worst times over the past few years and note any cyclical patterns through 2023.

 

Section 7. Flash and Other Non-Volatile Memory

Non-volatile memory ICs include ROM, EPROM, EEPROM, and flash memory devices. The unifying characteristic is that they retain their stored information even after system power is removed. ROM and EPROM devices were once the backbone of the non-volatile memory market, but now take a back seat to more versatile flash memory devices. This section examines trends, reviews market, unit shipment, and average selling price data, and highlights technical advances.

 

Section 8. DRAMs and SRAMs

The DRAM market continues to be one of the most closely watched of all IC categories. Whether in discrete package form or embedded with other technology, these devices are a critical component in PCs and are found in a number of wireless and portable applications. This section examines the historical and forecasted markets, unit shipments, and the all-important average selling prices for both DRAM and SRAM products. DRAM price-per-bit information and DRAM architectures are reviewed.

 

Section 9. Microcomponent Market Overview

This section features a high-level review of microprocessors, microcontrollers, and digital signal processors, all which fall under the banner of the microcomponent market. See how each of these segments contributes to the total microcomponent market.

 

Section 10. Microcontrollers and Digital Signal Processors

Microcontrollers are among the most ubiquitous of all integrated circuits. From 4-bit to 32-bit devices, microcontrollers are used to control and monitor both simple and extremely complex functions in the home, automobile, and office. This section reviews market, unit shipment, and pricing data and provides a review of the different segments of the MCU market.

The DSP market is suffering from a loss of identity as digital signal processing functions move into application-specific standard products (ASSPs) and field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) fill potential DSP sockets.  IC Insights reviews the market, unit shipments, and average selling price for the DSP market.  

 

Section 11. Microprocessors

From humble beginnings in 1971, microprocessors have emerged to be among the most closely followed of all IC products. Nearly everyone recognizes Intel's dominance in the microprocessor business, but what about processors for mobile devices such as smartphones and tablet PCs?  What does Intel's processor roadmap hold in store?  Can Intel achieve processor dominance in the market for portable handheld devices or will ARM-based processors continue to gain market momentum?  Learn IC Insights' take on the MPU market and review our forecast of market size, unit shipments, and average selling price.

 

Section 12. ASIC Market Overview

The application-specific IC (ASIC) and system-on-chip (SOC) market is an important segment of the IC industry. This section offers extensive coverage of ASIC/SOC market trends. Dollar, unit shipment, and average selling price information is provided for the total ASIC market, as well as for the standard cell, gate array, and PLD sub-segments.

 

Section 13. Analog Market Overview

Analog signals can be thought of as those that represent elements and conditions experienced in the "real" world. These include factors such as light, sound, temperature, and pressure. Analog signals are a continuous representation of phenomena in terms of points along a scale. Hype and hoopla surrounding advances in the world of digital ICs often overshadows developments in the analog IC business, but as noted in this section, the analog market continues to play a steady role in the IC industry. Important market, unit shipment, and pricing data for the overall analog market and for individual segments within this market (e.g., amplifiers, interface, comparators, etc.) are provided.

 

Section 14. Technology Trends

The success and proliferation of the integrated circuit since its discovery in the late 1950s has been due to the ability of manufacturers to continue offering more for the money. This ability to reduce the cost of ICs per performance has been driven by the continuous and rapid development of new and improved process technologies. Section 14 covers a variety of process technology related trends, such as the advanced lithography methods needed to continue shrinking chip geometries, new ways to improve performance that overcome limits to scaling such as 3D integration and novel transistor structures, and the migration to larger wafers.

 

Section 15. Packaging Trends

The assembly and packaging of ICs no longer takes a back seat to front-end processing. For most new IC products, packaging is an integral part of the chip design and production process; it is no longer just a simple, final step in the chip supply chain. As a result, accelerating demand for smaller, faster, yet less expensive products is pressing the packaging industry to keep pace with advancements in IC process technology.

This section provides an IC unit shipment forecast by package type (e.g., SO, FP/CC, BGA, wafer-level, bare die, etc.) and data showing how packages have evolved from simple cookie-cutter type packages to highly sophisticated and customized solutions. Details are provided on the ball-grid array, chip-scale package (CSP), bare die or direct-chip attach (DCA), wafer-level packaging, and multichip package (MCP) technologies, including stacked-chip packages.

Monthly Updates

In addition to the original comprehensive study that is delivered in January, monthly updates to The McClean Report are sent March through November that review significant trends shaping the industry. An in-depth IC end-use application database is included as the June update.  The July update is an extensive 200+ page Mid-Year Report that updates all of the core information found in the main report.

Purchasers of The McClean Report receive these updates for no additional charge. 

Some of the important topics covered in the updates include:

  • Detailed quarterly market, unit, and pricing reviews throughout the year.
  • On-going capital spending updates (including revisions to capital spending budgets for the world's leading IC producers).
  • Wafer fab capacity models for tracking supply/demand conditions in the industry.
  • World regional economic developments that impact the IC industry.
  • Analysis of end-use markets.
  • Various additional subjects related to the IC industry.

Seminars and Webcasts

Seminars

Each year, IC Insights presents seminars in support of The McClean Report. Each focused and informative half-day seminar goes beyond the pages to summarize IC industry trends discussed in the report. The seminar will provide you with a better understanding of the IC industry and its future direction.

Admission to the seminar is FREE with the purchase of The McClean Report.

Attendees can enjoy a complimentary continental breakfast at 8:00am prior to the seminar starting at 8:30am. The seminar concludes at 12:00 pm, leaving you enough time to return to your schedule.

2019 Seminar Locations

  • January 22 in Scottsdale, Arizona, USA
  • January 24 in Sunnyvale, California, USA
  • January 29 in Boston, Massachusetts, USA

 



目次

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Section 1.     Executive Summary .... 1-1

Section 2.     Global IC Industry Outlook and Cycles2-1

The Electronic System/Semiconductor Relationship ........ 2-1

Introduction ....... 2-1
Semiconductor Content ... 2-3

Macroeconomics 2-5

Worldwide GDP Update .. 2-5
The Increasing Risk of a Global Trade War2-7
Regional GDP Update ....... 2-9
Oil Prices .. 2-15

The IC Industry Cycle ...... 2-16

Introduction .... 2-16
IC Market Growth versus Worldwide GDP Growth2-17
The Global Semiconductor Market ...... 2-23
Currency Effects ..... 2-23
Semiconductor Market History and Forecast .. 2-24

IC Market Forecast Assumptions and Database ....... 2-26

2019 Assumptions . 2-26
2020-2023 IC Industry Forecast Assumptions ........ 2-28
IC Unit Shipments .. 2-30
IC ASP Analysis ........ 2-33
2017-2019F Quarterly Forecasts for the Total IC, O-S-D, and Semiconductor Markets2-35
1Q/4Q IC Market “Direction Indicator” Model 2-36

IC Market Forecast by Region ....... 2-39

Overview .. 2-39
China IC Market ...... 2-44
China IC Production Overview .... 2-46
Issues Regarding the Enactment of China’s Strategy ..... 2-50

Section 3.    Leading IC Suppliers and Foundries .....3-1

IC Suppliers Overview .......3-1
Top Semiconductor Supplier Rankings 3-2
Top 50 Semiconductor Suppliers ..3-2
Marketshare Trends of Major Semiconductor Suppliers.3-7
Top 50 Semiconductor Suppliers, Including Foundries, Ranked by Growth Rate .....3-8
Top 10 Semiconductor Suppliers (Excluding Foundries) ..... 3-10
Mergers & Acquisitions3-11
Top 50 Fabless IC Suppliers (Excludes O-S-D Sales) ...... 3-17
The Role of the Fabless/System IC Supplier .... 3-20
IC Foundry Industry Analysis ....... 3-25
Pure-Play/IDM Definitions .. 3-25
Foundry Market Overview ... 3-25 “Final” Foundry Sales Analysis.... 3-32
IC Foundry Sales by Company ..... 3-33
Foundry Sales by Customer Type ....... 3-37
Foundry Sales by Region....... 3-40
Foundry Sales by Application ...... 3-45
Foundry Revenue per Wafer ........ 3-48
Foundry Sales by Feature Size .... 3-50
IC Foundry Capacity and Capital Spending....... 3-59

Section 4.    Capital Spending and Capacity ........4-1

Semiconductor Industry Capital Spending Outlook ...4-1
Overview .....4-1
1Q Spending Survey versus Actual Spending Results .......4-4
Capital Spending as a Percent of Sales .4-5
2016-2019F Semiconductor Capital Spending by Company ..4-8
Capital Spending by Nationality . 4-14
Capital Spending by Product Type ..... 4-15
IC Industry Capacity Trends . 4-19
Overview .. 4-19
History and Forecast for Wafer Capacity, Starts, and Utilization 4-20
2017-2019F IC Capacity Forecast by Feature Size . 4-25
IC Capacity by Wafer Size ..... 4-28
Revenue per Wafer4-30

Section 5.    Market Overview by Device Type..5-1

Section 6.    Memory Overview .......6-1

China Ramps Memory Production .6-7
Next-Generation Memory ...... 6-11

Section 7.    Flash and Non--Volatile Memory .....7-1

Flash Memory Market Overview ....7-1

NOR Flash ...7-4
NAND Flash7-6
3D NAND Drives Market Growth ........ 7-10

Flash Memory Capital Spending .. 7-16
Intel-Micron Part Ways.. 7-20
EEPROM/ROM/EPROM/OtherMemory .... 7-22

Section 8.    DRAM and SRAM..8-1

DRAM Market Overview...8-1
DRAM Unit Shipments.......8-7
DRAM Bit Volume.... 8-11
DDR4 DRAM Growth....... 8-15
DRAM Capital Expenditures . 8-20
DRAM Supplier Highlights..... 8-28
SRAM Market Review ..... 8-35

Section 9.    Microcomponent Overview .....9-1

Section 10.    MCU and DSP.... 10-1

Microcontroller Market Overview ....... 10-1
Digital Signal Processors ..... 10-23

Section 11.    MPU ..... 11-1

Microprocessor Market Overview ....... 11-1
Microprocessors Forecast ..... 11-5
Microprocessors in Personal Computing Systems ........ 11-12

Smartphone MPUs Drive Advanced Wafer Processes. 11-16
Tablet Comeback Hinges on Bigger Improvements ..... 11-26
MPU Trends for PCs, Servers, and Embedded Applications ....... 11-32
Multi-CPU Emphasis in PCs Takes Off Again . 11-36
x86 Server MPU Battle Revs Up Again .... 11-45
ARM MPUs Struggle to Unseat x86 in Data Centers ..... 11-51
Artificial Intelligence Takes Over As the New Driver in Processors 11-57

Section 12.    ASIC ..... 12-1

Introduction...... 12-1
ASIC Market Overview ... 12-3
ASIC Market Forecast by Product Type ...... 12-7
ASIC Marketshare by Region ...... 12-13
Gate Array Market 12-17
Standard Cell Market ... 12-19
PLD Market .... 12-23

Section 13.    Analog13-1

Analog Market.. 13-1
General-Purpose Analog Products....... 13-6

Amplifiers and Comparators ........ 13-8
Interface ... 13-9
Power Management .... 13-10
Signal Conversion ........ 13-11

Application-Specific Analog Products ...... 13-12

Consumer ...... 13-14
Computer ....... 13-15
Communications.. 13-15
Automotive ... 13-16
Industrial/Other Analog .... 13-17
Analog Units .. 13-18
Trends ..... 13-20

Section14.    Technology ....... 14-1

Introduction...... 14-1
Research and Development Spending 14-2
Macrotrends .. 14-15

Transistor Count Trends.... 14-16
Chip Size Trends .. 14-23
Device Feature Size Trends ....... 14-28
Wafer Size Trends........ 14-32

Latest Technology Advancements .... 14-34

Advanced Memory Processes ... 14-34

NAND Flash Developments 14-36
TLC and QLC 3D Flash Memory 14-38
DRAM Developments .. 14-40
Emerging Memory Architectures ...... 14-43

Advanced Logic Processes14-45

Intel Process Developments ....... 14-48
TSMC Process Developments..... 14-49
Samsung Process Developments ....... 14-51
GlobalFoundries Process Developments14-55
Other Foundry Process Developments .... 14-57

EUV Lithography Status ..... 14-57

Summary14-60

Section15.    Packaging . 15-1

Overview ... 15-1
Unit Shipments by Package Type15-5

General Packaging Trends ..... 15-7

Package Mounting Transitions.... 15-7
3D and 2.5D IC Integration with TSVs .... 15-10
Alternatives to Silicon Interposer with TSVs . 15-14

Ball Grid Arrays ..... 15-15

Chip-to-Package Interconnect Trends .... 15-16

Chip-Scale Packages ..... 15-17

Stacked-Chip CSPs ....... 15-19

Package-On-Package .... 15-21
Wafer-Level Packaging ........ 15-23
Bare Die Assembly ........ 15-26
Challenges Ahead . 15-27

 

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プレスリリース

 

January 24, 2019

 

Semiconductor Unit Shipments Exceeded 1 Trillion Devices in 2018

Semiconductor units forecast to increase 7% in 2019 with IC units rising 8%, O-S-D units growing 7%.

Annual semiconductor unit shipments, including integrated circuits and optoelectronics, sensors, and discrete (O-S-D) devices grew 10% in 2018 and surpassed the one trillion unit mark for the first time, based on data presented in the new, 2019 edition of IC Insights’ McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry. As shown in Figure 1, semiconductor unit shipments climbed to 1,068.2 billion units in 2018 and are expected to climb to 1,142.6 billion in 2019, which equates to 7% growth for the year.  Starting in 1978 with 32.6 billion units and going through 2019, the compound annual growth rate for semiconductor units is forecast to be 9.1%, a very impressive growth figure over 40 years, given the cyclical and often volatile nature of the semiconductor industry.

Figure 1

Over the span of just four years (2004-2007), semiconductor shipments broke through the 400-, 500-, and 600-billion unit levels before the global financial meltdown caused a big decline in semiconductor unit shipments in 2008 and 2009.  Unit growth rebounded sharply with 25% growth in 2010, which saw semiconductor shipments surpass 700 billion devices. Another strong increase in 2017 (12% growth) lifted semiconductor unit shipments beyond the 900-billion level before the one trillion mark was achieved in 2018.

The largest annual increase in semiconductor unit growth during the timespan shown was 34% in 1984, and the biggest decline was 19% in 2001 following the dot-com bust.  The global financial meltdown and ensuing recession caused semiconductor shipments to fall in both 2008 and 2009; the only time that the industry experienced consecutive years in which unit shipments declined.  The 25% increase in 2010 was the second-highest growth rate across the time span.

The percentage split of total semiconductor shipments is forecast to remain heavily weighted toward O-S-D devices in 2019 (Figure 2).  O-S-D devices are forecast to account for 70% of total semiconductor units compared to 30% for ICs.  This percentage split has remained fairly steady over the years.  In 1980, O-S-D devices accounted for 78% of semiconductor units and ICs represented 22%.  Many of the semiconductor categories forecast to have the strongest unit growth rates in 2019 are those that are essential building-blocks for smartphones, automotive electronics systems, and devices that are used in computing systems essential to artificial intelligence, “big data,” and deep learning applications.

Figure 1

 

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