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モバイル事業者の5G Capex予測 2018-2023年

Mobile Operator 5G Capex Forecasts: 2018-2023

 

出版社 出版年月電子版価格 ページ数
Heavy Reading
ヘビーリーディング社
2018年12月US$2,495
エンタープライズライセンス(PDF)
17

サマリー

米国調査会社ヘビーリーディング社(Heavy Reading)の調査レポート「モバイル事業者の5G Capex予測 2018-2023年」は、モバイル事業者の5G投資の金額とどこで、いつ行われているかを調査している。モバイル事業者がネットワークに供給する固定伝送インフラストラクチャーへの5GのCAPEX(資本支出)をモバイル事業者毎に予測している。地域毎やネットワークセグメント毎に区分して予測している。

 


 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY(PDF)

Spectrum auctions intended to enable the launch of 5G services are hot news at the moment, given the large sums of money involved. The recently closed Italian auctions for spectrum at 700 MHz, 3600-3800 MHz and 26 GHz generated a massive $7.4 billion for the government. Sweden's auction for spectrum at 700 MHz closed in December 2018, raising SEK 2.8 billion ($310 million). Australia's auction of spectrum at 3.6 GHz also closed in December, raising AUD853 million ($604 million).

Now, all eyes will be on the U.S. auction of spectrum at 24 GHz and 28 GHz (underway as this report went to press), to see whether they will drum up the same level of financial enthusiasm. The value of provisionally winning bids on the 28 GHz spectrum alone had reached nearly $690 million by December 21, 2018, and was continuing.

But once these eye-watering sums of money have been paid, mobile operators will still be a long way from having an operational network. In order to provide 5G services, an operator must upgrade:

  • Its base station infrastructure, in order to use the spectrum bands, and to cope with the new 5G air interface;
  • Its core network and software systems – perhaps in two stages, to enable 5G non-standalone (NSA) mode and later 5G standalone (SA) mode;
  • Its transport network, to cope with the expected increase in traffic from 5G devices; and finally,
  • Its cell sites, in many cases needing to deploy thousands of new sites to host small cells operating at mmWave frequencies.

As with LTE deployments, these investments will be spread over years, and they are far from trifling, as recent announcements have shown:

  • In October 2018, Docomo announced plans to spend around ¥1 trillion ($8.8 billion) on infrastructure between fiscal year 2019 and 2023 to support 5G services, following an increase of ¥10 billion ($88 million) this year to support pre-5G services. (Pre-commercial services are expected from September 2019.)
  • U.K. operator Three has stated that it has committed investments of £2 billion ($2.57 billion) in getting ready for 5G – although this does include pre-5G spending such as the introduction of carrier aggregation to many of its sites, and the acquisition of 5G spectrum.
  • The U.S. carriers have started to award very large multi-year contracts for 5G deployment. T-Mobile, for instance, has awarded multi-year contracts worth a total of $7 billion to Ericsson and Nokia.

Such initial contract announcements will be welcome. Vendors in recent years have suffered a softness in the market caused by operators waiting to work out what to do with virtualization and waiting for 5G standardization to get far enough along that they can start launching 5G networks. With some launches already announced – e.g., Verizon's non-3GPP (but 3GPP software-upgradeable) fixed wireless access (FWA) 5G network, and the Korean operators' initial 5G services – and various other large-scale launches imminent – e.g., AT&T – they will be hoping the dry period is over.

Mobile Operator 5G Capex Forecasts: 2018-2023 seeks to provide insight into how much might be spent, and where and when. It provides estimates and forecasts 5G capital expenditure (capex) by mobile operators, including investments made by those mobile operators in the fixed transport infrastructure to serve those networks. It includes estimates for capex split by region and network segment.

Total global mobile operator 5G capex is forecast to grow rapidly from a low base in 2018 to reach nearly $88 billion worldwide by 2023. At that point, it will still be on a strong upward trajectory, and global 5G rollout will be in full swing. Even markets where 5G is installed early will be adding sites to improve coverage and capacity for years to come.

Mobile Operator 5G Capex Forecasts: 2018-2023 is published in PDF format.

 



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プレスリリース

[サマリー訳]

米国調査会社ヘビーリーディング社(Heavy Reading)の調査レポート「モバイル事業者の5G Capex予測 2018-2023年」は、モバイル事業者の5G投資の金額とどこで、いつ行われているかを調査している。モバイル事業者がネットワークに供給する固定伝送インフラストラクチャーへの5GのCAPEX(資本支出)をモバイル事業者毎に予測している。地域毎やネットワークセグメント毎に区分して予測している。


[サマリー原文]

Mobile Operator 5G Capex Forecasts: 2018-2023 seeks to provide insight into how much might be spent, and where and when. It provides estimates and forecasts 5G capital expenditure (capex) by mobile operators, including investments made by those mobile operators in the fixed transport infrastructure to serve those networks. It includes estimates for capex split by region and network segment.
 


 

[プレスリリース原文]

Vendors Ready Themselves for 5G Capex Influx

Heavy Lifting Analyst Notes
Simon Sherrington
12/24/2018
 
 

Auctions of 5G-suitable spectrum have generated about $9 billion (and counting) for governments in the last three months of the year alone. Governments are hoping to see billions of dollars more spent on spectrum in 2019, and again in 2020 and 2021, as they free up spectrum for the provision of 5G services.

Meanwhile vendors are waiting on a different bounty -- the many billions of dollars operators worldwide will need to spend to realize their 5G ambitions.

Vendors have suffered a lean period while operators have waited on 5G specifications, equipment readiness and availability of spectrum for service launches. The non-standalone specifications are now (mostly) in place, equipment has been trialed and tested, spectrum is being opened up and commercial considerations are now kicking in.

Operators are quickly starting to announce deployments/soft launches and actual launches for 5G FWA and 5G mobile services. 5G has so far been deployed only within limited geographic pockets, but coverage areas are expanding quickly. 5G is expected to be available in dozens of countries by the end of 2019, and countries are starting to impose coverage obligations in auctions of spectrum suitable for 5G deployments to ensure swift installation of equipment in urban areas and along transport corridors.

And while device availability remains very constrained (5G smartphones are not expected until next year, and 5G routers remain very limited in terms of numbers of different models, and volumes of each model actually available for users), operators are working hard to ensure they are ready for widespread service introduction when the device bottleneck is cleared.

This requires expenditure on a host of network assets: base station infrastructure, core network software and systems, transport infrastructure and -- to make the best of new millimeter wave spectrum bands -- millions of new macro and microcell sites.

Operators are expected to invest over $200 billion in capex on their 5G networks between 2018 and the end of 2023, and much more beyond that. Developed markets such as the USA and South Korea are taking the early lead regarding 5G rollout and service launch, but it will be China that comes to dominate capital expenditure within five years.

Heavy Reading's latest report, Mobile Operator 5G Capex Forecasts: 2018-2023, seeks to provide insight into how much might be spent, and where and when. It provides estimates and forecasts 5G capex by mobile operators (including investments made by those mobile operators in the fixed transport infrastructure to serve those networks), as well as breakdowns of investment by region, and by network segment (RAN, transport, core and civils). The estimates are underpinned by forecasts for 5G subscribers and 5G macro and microcell sites.

— Simon Sherrington, Contributing Analyst, Heavy Reading

 
 

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