Indonesia - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts / BuddeComm

インドネシアの通信、モバイル、ブロードバンド市場調査 2010年 (第16版)

Indonesia - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts

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Indonesia has built a substantial telecom sector, providing a solid platform for further growth. This has been despite the occasional serious setback. This country of around 230 million people presents a huge potential market; however, it faces some particularly big challenges that need to be confronted if it is to successfully continue the building of the telecommunications infrastructure needed to support what is a uniquely complex geography. At the same time, there is no avoiding the fact that Indonesia must also deal with a range of social, political and economic issues that have been proving problematic.

Although more than a decade ago, the Asian economic crisis of the late 1990s forced the government to take steps to reshape the telecom industry, and as a consequence it took on a new impetus. Prior to this the government had certainly been addressing the issues and working towards a more competitive market; but progress had been slow and at times erratic. In the last decade or so the reform process has accelerated, with the government being more decisive; over this same period Indonesia has been experiencing healthy sustained growth in subscriber numbers and revenues.

While fixed-line teledensity remained disconcertingly low for a number of years there has been a recent upturn that has delivered much better outcomes (over 15% fixed-line penetration by early 2010). The biggest single factor in this surge has been the advent of the fixed-wireless service. This technology has considerably boosted the growth rate in the last few years and provided much-needed basic telephone services to previously unserved communities. The roll-out of fixed-wireless infrastructure has been given good support by the operators with Bakrie Telecom and PT Telkom leading the way. Although the published statistics have been somewhat imprecise, by end-2009 fixed-wireless services made up about 76% of the total fixed-line subscriber base. In other words, in a short space of four years this technology platform had transformed the fixed-line market.

Meanwhile, Indonesia’s mobile market has continued to grow. Whilst it was expanded at an annual rate of close to 50% in 2008, the impact of the global financial crisis saw growth slow somewhat in 2009. The total mobile subscriber base had passed 150 million by January 2010, up from 12 million just seven years earlier. With the country’s mobile penetration at around 65% in early 2010, the industry view was that there was still considerable potential for further growth in the market and the operators were scrambling to position themselves to meet the ongoing demand. Furthermore, market interest had started to focus on the 3G services already being offered by five operators. Whilst 3G subscribers comprised only around 7% of the national subscriber base by early 2009, the potential of 3G to boost Average Revenue per User (ARPU) was not lost on the operators and competition was starting to hot up on the 3G front. Telkomsel was indeed making its presence felt in this market segment, claiming more than 70% of 3G subscribers by March 2009.

The number of Internet users in Indonesia was estimated at just over 26 million by early 2010, representing a relatively low overall penetration of 11%. At the same time, the Internet subscription market was generally depressed with less than 7 million subscribers reported by early 2010. Broadband Internet access, whilst certainly increasing, was at a relatively low level of activity, with subscriptions running at around 18% of the total Internet subscriber base. While the government was continuing to promote greater use of online services, these efforts appeared to be having only limited impact on the take up rate of the various Internet services on offer.

Market highlights:
Indonesia’s mobile market passed 150 million subscribers in early 2010 with penetration running at 65%;
After more than seven straight years of strong growth, the annual increase in mobile subscribers had moderated somewhat to just under 20%;
Indonesia’s 3G market was still in its infancy four years after launch, with 3G subscribers representing still only about 7% of the total mobile subscriber base;
Nevertheless, the operators were keenly pursuing 3G business as it opened the door to increased ARPU.
Mobile market leader Telkomsel had made a big impact on the relatively small 3G market with more than 70% of the total 3G subscriber base in 2009;
Internet penetration remained low (11% user penetration by end-2009) and Internet subscription rates were considerably lower;
Broadband Internet access numbers in Indonesia were starting to grow, but penetration remained exceedingly low at 0.5%;
DSL remained the dominant broadband platform with about 95% of the broadband subscriptions; this meant of course a heavy reliance on the limited copper-wire infrastructure to access DSL services.

Indonesia – key telecom parameters – 2009 - 2010

Category	2009	2010 (e)
Fixed-line services:
Total number of subscribers	35.5 million	41.0 million
Annual growth	17%	15%
Fixed-line penetration (population)	15%	17%
Fixed-line penetration (household)	60%	69%
Internet:
Total number of subscribers¹	6.5 million	9.0 million
Annual growth	44%	38%
Internet subscriber penetration (population)	3%	4%
Internet subscriber penetration (household)	10%	14%
Mobile services:
Total number. of subscribers	150 million	180 million
Annual growth	17%	20%
Mobile penetration (population)	65%	76%

(Source: BuddeComm)

Note: ¹Estimate including broadband subscribers.

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Key Statistics
2. Telecommunications Market
- 2.1 Overview of Indonesia’s telecom market
  - 2.1.1 Mobile sector
  - 2.1.2 Fixed-line services
3. Regulatory Environment
- 3.1 Background
  - 3.1.1 Telecommunications Law 1989
  - 3.1.2 Telecommunications Law 2000
  - 3.1.3 Cross shareholdings
- 3.2 Corruption
- 3.3 Regulatory developments
  - 3.3.1 Control of the Internet
  - 3.3.2 Quality of service
  - 3.3.3 Price fixing
  - 3.3.4 Third fixed-line operator
  - 3.3.5 WiMAX licences
- 3.4 Cross ownership dispute
- 3.5 Privatisation process
  - 3.5.1 Background
  - 3.5.2 Foreign ownership
4. Major fixed network operators
- 4.1 PT Telkom Indonesia
  - 4.1.1 Overview
  - 4.1.2 Statistics
  - 4.1.3 Corporate structure and privatisation
  - 4.1.4 Strategic development
  - 4.1.5 PT Telkom’s KSO partnerships
- 4.2 PT Indonesian Satellite Corporation (Indosat)
  - 4.2.1 Overview
  - 4.2.2 Corporate structure and privatisation
  - 4.2.3 Statistics
  - 4.2.4 Fixed-line business
  - 4.2.5 Strategic developments
- 4.3 PT Satelit Palapa Indonesia (SATELINDO)
- 4.4 PT Bakrie Telecom
  - 4.4.1 Overview
  - 4.4.2 Statistics
  - 4.4.3 Corporate structure
  - 4.4.4 Strategic development
5. Telecommunications Infrastructure
- 5.1 National infrastructure
  - 5.1.1 Overview
  - 5.1.2 Infrastructure development
  - 5.1.3 Joint operating service (KSO) ventures – five-zone plan
  - 5.1.4 Rural telephony
  - 5.1.5 Wireless Local Loop (WLL)
- 5.2 International infrastructure
  - 5.2.1 International gateway exchanges
  - 5.2.2 Submarine cable networks
- 5.3 Satellite networks
  - 5.3.1 Satellite communications
6. Internet Market
- 6.1 Overview
  - 6.1.1 Internet statistics
- 6.2 Regulatory developments
  - 6.2.1 Indonesian Internet Agency (LII)
  - 6.2.2 Internet information control
  - 6.2.3 Cyber laws
- 6.3 Internet infrastructure
  - 6.3.1 Telkom’s national IP backbone
  - 6.3.2 IPv6
- 6.4 ISP market
7. Broadband Market
- 7.1 Overview
  - 7.1.1 Broadband statistics
- 7.2 Broadband market background
- 7.3 First Media
- 7.4 TelkomNet
- 7.5 IndosatM2 (IM2)
- 7.6 Wireless broadband
  - 7.6.1 Background
  - 7.6.2 WiMAX
  - 7.6.3 Internet via satellite
- 7.7 Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP)
8. Digital Media / Digital Economy
- 8.1 E-commerce
  - 8.1.1 Electronic Document Interchange (EDI) project
  - 8.1.2 E-commerce payment system
  - 8.1.3 E-government
  - 8.1.4 E-health
9. Broadcasting Market
- 9.1 Overview
  - 9.1.1 Broadcasting statistics
- 9.2 Regulatory environment
  - 9.2.1 Background
  - 9.2.2 Broadcasting Law 2002
  - 9.2.3 Control of content
  - 9.2.4 Amendments to Broadcasting Law – 2006
  - 9.2.5 Foreign ownership
  - 9.2.6 Dubbing of foreign language films
  - 9.2.7 Migration to digital
  - 9.2.8 Pay TV piracy
- 9.3 Free-to-Air (FTA) TV
  - 9.3.1 Market overview
  - 9.3.2 Major FTA players
- 9.4 Cable and pay TV
  - 9.4.1 Introduction
  - 9.4.2 Major players
- 9.5 Satellite TV
  - 9.5.1 PT Indosat
  - 9.5.2 PT Satelindo
  - 9.5.3 Indostar
  - 9.5.4 STAR TV
  - 9.5.5 PT Indonusa Telemedia
  - 9.5.6 MQTV
- 9.6 Internet Protocol TV (IPTV)
  - 9.6.1 Overview
  - 9.6.2 PT Telkom
  - 9.6.3 Bakrie Telecom
- 9.7 Mobile TV
10. Mobile Communications
- 10.1 Overview of Indonesia’s mobile market
  - 10.1.1 Mobile subscriber statistics
- 10.2 Background to market development
  - 10.2.1 Foreign ownership regulations
- 10.3 Mobile technologies
  - 10.3.1 GSM
  - 10.3.2 Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA)
  - 10.3.3 Analogue services (AMPS and NMT)
  - 10.3.4 General Packet Radio Service (GPRS)
  - 10.3.5 Third Generation (3G) mobile
- 10.4 Major mobile operators
  - 10.4.1 Mobile statistics
  - 10.4.2 PT Telkomsel
  - 10.4.3 PT Indosat
  - 10.4.4 XL Axiata (formerly PT Excelcomindo Pratama)
  - 10.4.5 PT Sampoerna Telekomunikasi Indonesia (STI)
  - 10.4.6 Mobile-8
  - 10.4.7 Axis/Natrindo Telepon Selular
  - 10.4.8 PT Hutchison CP Telecommunications
  - 10.4.9 Smart Telecom
- 10.5 Mobile voice services
  - 10.5.1 Prepaid
  - 10.5.2 Satellite mobile
- 10.6 Mobile data services
  - 10.6.1 Short Message Service (SMS)
  - 10.6.2 Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS)
  - 10.6.3 Mobile TV
  - 10.6.4 BlackBerry
  - 10.6.5 Mobile advertising
  - 10.6.6 Other services
11. Forecasts
- 11.1 Overview
- 11.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 11.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
- 11.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
12. Glossary of Abbreviations

Table 1 – Country statistics Indonesia – 2009
Table 2 – Telecom revenue and investment statistics – 2007
Table 3 – Telephone network statistics – 2009
Table 4 – Internet user statistics – 2009
Table 5 – Broadband statistics – 2009
Table 6 – Mobile statistics – 2009
Table 7 – National telecommunications authorities
Table 8 – PT Telkom’s fixed-line subscribers – 2004 - 2009
Table 9 – PT Telkom’s fixed lines in service – 2006 - 2009
Table 10 – PT Telkom – fixed wireless subscribers – 2003 - 2009
Table 11 – PT Telkom – postpaid and prepaid fixed wireless subscribers – September 2009
Table 12 – PT Telekom – fixed wireless pre and postpaid ARPU – 2004 - 2009
Table 13 – PT Telkom – revenue contribution by market segment – September 2009
Table 14 – PT Indosat – fixed wireless subscribers – 2006 - 2009
Table 15 – PT Indosat – postpaid and prepaid fixed wireless subscribers – 2008 - 2009
Table 16 – PT Indosat – fixed wireless pre and postpaid ARPU – 2006 - 2009
Table 17 – Bakrie Telecom subscribers – 2004 - 2009
Table 18 – Bakrie Telecom – postpaid and prepaid fixed wireless subscribers – September 2009
Table 19 – Bakrie Telecom’s pre and postpaid ARPU – 2004 - 2009
Table 20 – PT Telkom’s national network statistics and annual growth – 2006 - 2009
Table 21 – Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity – 1995 - 2011
Table 22 – Fixed lines subscribers and annual change by operator – September 2009
Table 23 – PT Telkom – fixed-lines in service – 2006 - 2009
Table 24 – Five-year USO deployment of lines plan for villages – 2006 - 2010
Table 25 – Fixed-wireless (WLL) subscribers in Indonesia – 2003; 2007 - 2011
Table 26 – Fixed-wireless (WLL) subscribers by operator – September 2009
Table 27 – PT Telkom – fixed wireless subscribers – September 2009
Table 28 – Internet users – 1998 - 2011
Table 29 – Internet subscribers – 1998 - 2010
Table 30 – Total international Internet bandwidth – 1998 - 2009
Table 31 – Number of IPv4 and IPv6 addresses allocated in Indonesia – 1999 - 2007
Table 32 – Internet licences by licence type – 2007
Table 33 – PT Telkom’s dial-up Internet subscribers – 2004 - 2008
Table 34 – Fixed broadband subscribers – 2000 - 2010
Table 35 – DSL subscribers – 2001 - 2009
Table 36 – Broadband subscribers and households - 2009
Table 37 – PT Telkom’s broadband subscribers – 2004 - 2008
Table 38 – Key broadcasting statistics – 2009
Table 39 – Broadcasting sector, TV households and home satellites – 1997 - 2009
Table 40 – Television audience share by operator – 2009
Table 41 – Pay TV subscribers – cable and satellite – 2001 - 2009
Table 42 – Mobile subscribers – 1995 - 2011
Table 43 – CDMA mobile operators and subscribers – March 2009
Table 44 – 3G mobile operators and subscribers – March 2009
Table 45 – Mobile operators and subscribers – March 2009
Table 46 – Subscribers and market share by operator – March 2009
Table 47 – Telkomsel subscribers – postpaid, prepaid and market share – 1999 - 2009
Table 48 – Telkomsel post/prepaid ARPU and subscribers – June 2009
Table 49 – Telkomsel subscribers – postpaid and prepaid – 2001 - 2009
Table 50 – Telkomsel prepaid subscribers as proportion of total – 2002; 2004; 2009
Table 51 – PT Indosat mobile subscribers – 2005 - 2009
Table 52 – PT Indosat postpaid and prepaid subscribers – June 2009
Table 53 – PT Indosat postpaid and prepaid ARPU – 2006 - 2009
Table 54 – XL Axiata mobile subscribers – 2005 - 2009
Table 55 – PT Sampoerna (STI) subscribers – 2007 - 2009
Table 56 – Mobile-8 subscribers – 2003 - 2009
Table 57 – Axis/Natrindo Telepon Selular subscribers – 2G & 3G – 2007 - 2009
Table 58 – Hutchison CP subscribers – 2007 - 2009
Table 59 – Smart Telecom subscribers – 2007 - 2009
Table 60 – Prepaid subscribers – selected mobile operators – June 2009
Table 61 – Forecast of fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 62 – Forecast of Internet subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 63 – Forecast of mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020

Exhibit 1 – Major shareholders in PT Telkom – 2008
Exhibit 2 – Major shareholders in PT Indosat – September 2009
Exhibit 3 – Original consortia, and KSO operating in each geographical zone
Exhibit 4 – Indonesian satellites – 2009
Exhibit 5 – Major FTA television broadcasters, ownership, launch date and coverage

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