モバイルトラフィックの氾濫 / Boschulte Schnee Group社

モバイルトラフィックの氾濫

Mobile Traffic DELUGE

出版社	出版日	電子媒体 (05/17 レート)	ページ数
Boschulte Schnee Group社	2011年7月	US$ 2,950 \251,796(税込) ライセンス別価格	76

※電子媒体(PDF)価格はシングルユーザ価格です。

サマリー

Corrects errors in consensus forecasts - e.g., The Cisco VNI model
Projects demand growth based on a new bottom-up Methodology
Analyzes the wild proliferation of mobile devices & apps
Identifies parts of the mobile network that will be overwhelmed
Pinpoints the stress factors down to the Cell Site level
Warns of big implications for the Web-based players
Explains risks to the carrier Business Models
Details new Demand Growth factors - Augmented Reality, Apps Interdependence, Demand Base Load
Dissects strategy options for Web-based & Telecom companies
Examines Regulatory, Pricing, Technology & other issues

To date, there has been mere hand-waving at the prospect of mushrooming Mobile Broadband Demand Growth

"The Mobile Traffic DELUGE" study reveals the first clear picture of the vast demand wave about to slam into the industry --- 10X prevailing consensus forecasts!

The Mobile Traffic DELUGE:

Exposes the extremely serious under-estimates of consensus forecasts.
Provides an original, new Bottom-Up Forecasting Methodology
Zeroes in on lurking dangers for high-growth device and apps providers
Provides the most sophisticated analysis of the evolving Mobile Internet Ecosystem

The Mobile Traffic DELUGE" is a breakthrough study:

It provides an original model for analyzing Traffic through a single Cell Site. - All Model Assumptions are clearly spelled out.
It incorporates all key Growth Factors: Cell Site expansion; Subscriber growth; Growth of Multi-device subs; Proliferation of Broadband Apps; Emergence of Augmented Reality; Increased wireless substitution; Regulatory pressure to expand Broadband.
It provides focused analysis of the Segments of Demand: New Base Load Demand; Interdependence of Apps; User-Initiated Demand.
It explains major trends and their impact: Changing user behavior; Growing device capabilities; Expanding apps capabilities; Ease of access to apps; Plummeting device costs.
It analyzes the key factor of Value Creation and how it impacts the divergent interests of traditional telecom carriers and Web-based growth companies

TOP

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Purpose of the Study
Correcting Errors In Consensus Mobile Data Forecasts
Key Conclusions .. The Demand FUNNEL: Calibrating The Rate of Change

CHAPTER 1 MOBILE INTERNET - THE NEW CHALLENGES

The Emergence of a New Mobile Data Ecosystem
Conflict Between Carriers and New Device and Apps Providers
The New Power Relationships
The Coming Demand DELUGE and Shock
The Mobile "Time Warp" Post-2008

CHAPTER 2 CONSENSUS FORECASTING DEFECTS - CISCO VNI STUDY

Key Defects In Consensus Mobile Data Forecasting - Cisco VNI Study
Critical Flaw - Equating Mobile Internet and Fixed Internet Growth Outlook
A New, Bottom-Up Demand Forecasting Methodology
Respected Sources Indicate Mobile Demand Forecasts Are Far Too Low
Bottom-Up Approach Versus the Cisco Forecast: Results Compared

CHAPTER 3 MOBILE NETWORKS - TRACKING DEMAND GROWTH

Understanding Mobile Networks - Using Backhaul Demand As A Metric
Disruptive Developments That Drive Unprogrammed Growth
Tracking the Demand DELUGE Through Backhaul Growth
Growth In Cell Sites - Part of the Picture
Subscriber Growth
Device Growth
Growth In Multi-Device Subscribers
Expansion of Broadband Apps
Augmented Reality Emerges
Increased Wireless Substitution
Regulatory Pressures to Expand Broadband

CHAPTER 4 THE BOTTOM-UP DEMAND FORECAST MODEL

The Carrier Data-Driven Dilemma
Three Primary Elements of Demand Growth
Methodology - Modeling Potential Backhaul Demand in 2015
Demand Potential of Key Apps
Modeling Traffic Through a Single Cell Site - 3 Cases Examined
Two Usage Scenarios For Each Case
Case 1 - 40 Users at Peak
Case 2 - 80 Users at Peak .
Case 3 - 120 Users at Peak
Summary of 3 Cases

CHAPTER 5 ANALYZING TRAFFIC GROWTH IMPACT ON U.S. MOBILE INDUSTRY

Overall Demand Requirements
Estimating Cell Site Distribution By Level of Traffic Load
Breakdown of Cell Sites By Traffic Load
Comparing Cisco VNI and Bottom-Up Model Results

CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSIONS

"Potential Demand" - Industry Alternatives
Technological Change As A Factor
Options For Addressing the Demand DELUGE; "Offloading" and Others
The Potential of Offloading Analyzed
Pricing Changes Analyzed
Competitive Entry and Regulatory Policy As Factors

APPENDIX A COLLATERAL IMPACT OF THE BACKHAUL EFFECT: THE FUTURE OF TELCOS

APPENDIX B EVOLUTION OF BACKHAUL TECHNOLOGY

Mobile Network Ecosystem
End User Systems
RAN World
Backhaul
Core
Evolution of RANs
Backhaul and Mobile Technology Evolution
Backhaul Facility Demand

CHARTS AND TABLES

Chart 1. The Demand FUNNEL
Chart 2. Mobile Data - Three Sub-Ecosystems
Chart 3. OLD Ecosystem - CARRIERS in Control
Chart 4 New Relationship of 3 Ecosystems
Chart 5. Basic Wireless Network Architecture
Chart 6. Mobile Network Ecosystem Architecture, 2011-2015

Table 1. 10-Year Equity Value Creation: Mobile Carriers vs. Growth Companies
Table 2 Mobile's Time Warp & Shocks: Selected Key Future Drivers -2008 Outlook vs. 2011 Outlook
Table 3. Cisco VNI Forecast of Mobile Data Traffic Growth 2010-2015
Table 4. Computation of Average Cell Site Traffic Based on Cisco VNI Study 2015
Table 5. Cisco VNI Study Comparison of Fixed Internet & Mobile Data Growth Rates
Table 6. Major Differences In Drivers Between Historic Fixed Internet and Projected Mobile Data Growth
Table 7. Estimated Breakdown of U.S. Cell Sites 2015 By Traffic Category
Table 8. Cisco vs.BSG Estimates of Traffic Per U.S. Cell Sites 2015 By Category Of Cell Site
Table 9. U.S. Cell Site Growth, June 2000 to June 2010
Table 10. U.S. Cell Site Projected Growth, 2010-2015
Table 11. U.S. Mobile Subscriber Growth, 2005-2015 Projected
Table 12. Smartphones, Tablets, Other HHs, Growth Projection U.S. 2010-2015
Table 13. Smartphone Average Pricing (After Discounts) vs. All Handhelds
Table 14. Apps Usage - % of Users Using A Given App
Table 15. Leading Apps, % of Total Data Bandwidth Used
Table 16. Percent of U.S. Households That Are Wireless Only
Table 17. Breakdown of Key Mobile Apps By Category
Table 18. Bandwidth Assumptions For Key Mobile Apps, 2010 vs. 2015
Table 19. Projected Device Breakdown By Type, 2015
Table 20. Cell Site User Assumptions 2015 - 3 Cases
Table 21. Case 1 Breakdown of Devices by Category, Single Cell Site At Peak 2015
Table 22. Case 1, Scenario 1 - Peak Usage At Single Cell Site 2015
Table 23. Case 1, Scenario 2 - Peak Usage At Single Cell Site 2015
Table 24. Case 1 Peak Usage At Single Cell Site 2015 - Two Scenarios
Table 25. Case 1 Augmented Reality Impact on Demand Single Cell Site 2015
Table 26. Case 1 Backhaul Traffic Requirements 2015
Table 27. Case 2 Breakdown of Devices by Category, Single Cell Site At Peak 2015
Table 28. Case 2, Scenario 1 - Peak Usage At Single Cell Site 2015
Table 29. Case 2, Scenario 2 - Peak Usage At Single Cell Site 2015
Table 30. Case 2 Peak Usage At Single Cell Site 2015 Two Scenarios
Table 31. Case 2 Augmented Reality Impact on Demand Single Cell Site 2015
Table 32. Case 2 Backhaul Traffic Requirements 2015
Table 33. Case 3 Breakdown of Devices by Category, Single Cell Site At Peak 2015
Table 34. Case 3, Scenario 1 - Peak Usage At Single Cell Site 2015
Table 35. Case 3, Scenario 2 - Peak Usage At Single Cell Site 2015
Table 36. Case 3 Augmented Reality Impact on Demand Single Cell Site 2015
Table 37. Case 3 Backhaul Traffic Requirements 2015
Table 38. Backhaul Demand 2015 Summary of 3 Cases
Table 39. Cell Site Density - Conn. Sample vs. U.S. Totals
Table 40. AT&T & Verizon Cell Site Data From Sample Area
Table 41. Verizon Wireless National Cell Site & Subscriber Data
Table 42. Population Breakdown by Density Tiers 2015
Table 43. Estimated Breakdown of U.S. Cell Sites 2015 By Traffic Load Category
Table 44. U.S. Backhaul Requirements By Category of Cell Sites 2015
Table 45. Cisco VNI Study Contrasted - Peak Demand, By Cell Site Category
Table 46. Cisco VNI Study Contrasted - Total Traffic Per Month (Petabytes)
Table 47. RAN Standards Status