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自動運転自動車の今後

The Future of Autonomous Cars

 

出版社 出版年月冊子体価格電子版価格 ページ数
Berg Insight
ベルグインサイト社
2016年10月Eur1,000Eur1,500
1-5ユーザライセンス(PDF)
250

サマリー

スウェーデンの調査会社ベルグインサイト社(Berg Insight)の調査レポート「自動運転自動車の今後」は、世界の自動運転車(自律走行車)の市場の最新情報をに関する戦略的レポートです。5年間の市場予測と専門家の見解を記載しています。

調査レポートの注目点

  • 市場を牽引する企業のエグゼクティブへのインタビュー
  • 世界の自動車人口と新車登録数に関するデータ
  • 自動運転自動車のバリューチェーンと主要アプリケーション
  • 市場動向や主要な発展を分析
  • 14社の自動車OEMの概要と自動運転自動車への取り組み
  • IT企業や技術企業との連携の詳細な概要
  • 2030年までの市場予測

Description

How will the market for autonomous cars evolve in the next 15 years? The report covers the latest trends and developments covering detailed descriptions about the major self-driving car projects worldwide. Berg Insight forecasts that the total number of new registrations of autonomous cars will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 62 percent from 0.2 million units in 2020 to reach 24 million units in 2030. Get up to date with the latest information about vendors, products and markets.

 


 

The Future of Autonomous Cars is a strategy report from Berg Insight analysing the latest developments on the selfdriving car market worldwide.

This strategic research report from Berg Insight provides you with 250 pages of unique business intelligence including 5-year industry forecasts and expert commentary on which to base your business decisions.

Highlights from this report:

  • Insights from numerous executive interviews with market leading companies.
  • New data on car populations and new car registrations worldwide.
  • Comprehensive overview of the autonomous car value chain and key applications.
  • In-depth analysis of market trends and key developments.
  • Updated profiles of 14 major car OEMs and their autonomous car activities.
  • Detailed view on the involvement of IT and technology companies in this industry.
  • Market forecasts by region lasting until 2030.

71 million self-driving cars on the roads by 2030

Ever since the introduction of the first automobile one thing has remained constant despite the evolution of performance and appearance – cars have always had a driver. The concept of driverless vehicles opens up for new potential applications as well as business models. In fact, the removal of the driver is arguably the most significant and transformative innovation ever faced by the automotive industry. Some of the potential benefits that follow are safer, more efficient and more convenient journeys. Self-driving cars open up completely new ways to deal with transportation – fleets of autonomous cars could in the future handle entire cities’ need for personal mobility with much fewer vehicles than are used today. SAE International has developed a six level standard (0–5), where semi-autonomous functionality starts in the second level. The third level is the first to provide some actual autonomy in the sense that the driver can divert attention from the road although he or she must be able to regain control of the vehicle with some seconds of prior warning. The fourth level provides full autonomy in specific use cases of various complexity.

In 2015, the first semi-autonomous (SAE Level 2) car models were introduced on the market and reached sales of an estimated 194,000 cars. This number is forecasted to increase by almost 57 percent to reach new registrations of about 304,000 Level 2 capable vehicles in 2016. By 2030 an estimated 43 million cars will be sold featuring Level 2 capability and the active installed base will have reached about 177 millon cars.

The total number of new registrations of autonomous (SAE Level 3 and 4) cars is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 62 percent from 0.2 million units in 2020 to reach 24 million units in 2030. The active installed base of autonomous cars is forecasted to have reached about 71 million at the end of the forecast period. SAE Level 3 and 4 cars will constitute about 16.5 million and 7.8 million of the cars sold in 2030. However, Level 4 sales are expected to overtake Level 3 in the years following 2030. Cars with Level 5 capability are not expected to emerge before 2030 and potentially much later.

There are two approaches to the development of autonomous cars – the evolutionary and the revolutionary. Most of the incumbent car manufacturers are pursuing an evolutionary approach which relies on step-by-step developments. The first step for the evolutionary pathway is to make Level 3 cars available in 2020. This initial system is likely to only feature autonomous mode on freeways. By 2022, the evolutionary approach is expected to reach the next milestone with the rollout of Level 4 capable cars. These cars will be able to drive completely autonomously without ever requesting the driver to intervene but initially only on specific freeways and thus the driver will have to take over control when the car is exiting the freeway. Most of the new entrants like the IT companies as well as startups are instead targeting a revolutionary approach. The revolutionary approach argues that Level 3 is unsafe due to the repeating control exchange between driver and vehicle and therefore aims directly for Level 4 focusing on city-based low-speed autonomous cars. These cars are expected to be introduced in 2022. However, the initial revolutionary Level 4 cars will only be available in specific environments such as in downtown shopping areas.

Most carmakers are today developing autonomous car technology and they are joined by software companies, Tier-1 suppliers, government initiatives and startup firms. The diversity of the actors is important since a range of various technological advancements are necessary along with regulatory changes to realize self-driving cars. Fully autonomous cars are closely related to artificial intelligence and this is therefore one of the most researched fields among carmakers and other institutions working on self-driving vehicle projects. Recent progress in the field of artificial intelligence and specifically in deep learning has made the development of autonomous cars seem more likely to occur soon.

It is important to recognize that autonomous cars will not arrive overnight. Even when a ready solution is available and regulations have been adapted to it, the roll out of self-driving vehicles to the broad market will take many years. The luxury car market will be the first segment to offer autonomous car technologies. This trend can already be seen with automakers like Tesla, BMW and Mercedes-Benz offering autopilot features in their cars. These features, however, are not truly autonomous yet since they require the driver to stay attentive at all times. Moreover, the automakers are starting to see competition from new entrants like Google, Uber and Baidu which all aim to develop self-driving cars.
 

This report answers the following questions;

  • What is the current status of the autonomous car industry?
  • Which are the main actors targeting the autonomous car market?
  • How will regulatory developments affect the autonomous car market?
  • Which are the main drivers and barriers on this market?
  • How will autonomous cars impact business models and which are the key benefits?
  • How are IT and tech companies positioning themselves in the autonomous car value chain?
  • What semi-autonomous cars are available on a commercial basis today?
  • What are the automotive OEMs future plans for driverless cars?
  • How will the market evolve in Europe, North America, Latin America, Asia-Pacific and MEA?
     

 



目次

Table of Contents

Executive summary

1 Introduction to autonomous cars
1.1 Definitions and classifications
1.2 Brief history of autonomous cars
1.3 Current state of self-driving cars and key stakeholders
1.3.1 Automotive manufacturers
1.3.2 Tier-1 automotive suppliers
1.3.3 Technology companies
1.3.4 Connectivity service providers
1.4 Key market drivers
1.5 Key market barriers
1.6 The global passenger car market
1.6.1 Car segments
1.6.2 Passenger cars in use by region
1.6.3 New passenger car registration trends
1.7 Market trends
1.7.1 Hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid electric and all-electric vehicles
1.7.2 Car sharing and personal transportation as a service
1.8 User segments for autonomous driving
1.8.1 Luxury segment
1.8.2 Commuters
1.8.3 Young drivers
1.8.4 Paratransit
1.8.5 Delivery fleets
1.8.6 Transportation on demand

2 Advanced driver assistance systems
2.1 Introduction to the most common ADAS
2.1.1 Adaptive cruise control
2.1.2 Cooperative adaptive cruise control
2.1.3 Lane departure warning
2.1.4 Lane keeping assist
2.1.5 Autonomous emergency braking
2.1.6 Collision avoidance system
2.1.7 Blind spot monitor
2.1.8 Rear cross traffic alert
2.1.9 Forward cross traffic alert
2.1.10 Turning assist
2.1.11 Road sign detection
2.1.12 Other ADAS
2.2 Specific semi-autonomous use cases
2.2.1 Parking assist
2.2.2 Traffic jam assist and highway autopilot
2.2.3 Platooning

3 Autonomous car technologies
3.1 Sensors
3.1.1 Cameras
3.1.2 Lidar
3.1.3 Radar
3.1.4 Ultrasonic and infrared sensors
3.1.5 Inertial navigation system
3.2 Telematics
3.2.1 Mobile connectivity
3.2.2 Location tracking
3.2.3 Digital maps
3.2.4 V2V and V2I communication
3.3 Computing platform
3.3.1 Sensor fusion
3.3.2 Interpretation and decision making
3.3.3 Computer vision
3.3.4 Artificial intelligence
3.3.5 Machine learning
3.3.6 Deep learning
3.4 Execution and related technologies
3.4.1 Electronic control unit
3.4.2 Human machine interface
3.4.3 Driver monitoring systems
3.5 Summary of the current state of autonomous car technologies

4 Autonomous car initiatives
4.1 Overview of current projects
4.2 Jaguar Land Rover Automotive
4.3 Volvo Car Group
4.4 Tesla Motors
4.5 Mercedes-Benz
4.6 Audi
4.7 BMW
4.8 General Motors
4.9 Ford Motor Company
4.10 Toyota Motor Corporation
4.11 Honda Motor Company
4.12 Hyundai Motor Group
4.13 Renault-Nissan Alliance
4.14 Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
4.15 Groupe PSA
4.16 Google
4.17 Apple
4.18 Uber Technologies
4.19 Baidu
4.20 Additional car OEM initiatives
4.21 Car manufacturers not yet betting on autonomous car technology
4.22 Supplier and technology company initiatives
4.22.1 Autoliv
4.22.2 Bosch
4.22.3 Continental
4.22.4 Delphi Automotive
4.22.5 ZF TRW
4.22.6 Mobileye
4.22.7 Nvidia
4.22.8 Velodyne LiDAR
4.22.9 Additional supplier initiatives

5 Regional developments
5.1 USA
5.2 European Union
5.3 Germany
5.4 United Kingdom
5.5 Sweden
5.6 China
5.7 Japan
5.8 South Korea
5.9 Singapore

6 Benefits of autonomous cars
6.1 Safety
6.2 Convenience
6.3 Traffic efficiency
6.4 Mobility
6.4.1 Benefits for people unable to drive
6.4.2 Public driverless fleets of cars
6.5 Sustainability
6.5.1 Electric autonomous vehicles
6.5.2 Increased efficiency
6.6 Impact on city infrastructure

7 Barriers and challenges
7.1 Technology reliability
7.2 Mixed vehicle environment
7.3 HMI challenges to accomplish Level 3
7.4 Standards and collaborations
7.5 Regulations and liabilities
7.5.1 International conventions on road traffic
7.5.2 Liability
7.6 Public acceptance
7.7 Car longevity

8 Market forecasts and trends
8.1 Car sales forecast
8.2 Autonomous car sales forecast
8.2.1 SAE Level 1
8.2.2 SAE Level 2
8.2.3 SAE Level 3
8.2.4 SAE Level 4
8.2.5 SAE Level 5
8.3 Regional market developments
8.3.1 SAE Level 2, Level 3 and non-driverless Level 4
8.3.2 SAE Driverless Level 4
8.4 Market drivers and barriers
8.4.1 Competitive environment
8.4.2 Technology environment
8.4.3 Regulatory environment
8.4.4 Macroeconomic environment
8.5 Value chain analysis
8.5.1 Automotive industry players
8.5.2 IT industry players
8.5.3 Automotive suppliers
8.5.4 Transport service players
8.6 Future industry trends
8.6.1 Forecasting the autonomous car market beyond 2030
8.6.2 The overall impact of autonomous cars on society
8.6.3 Data ownership and privacy protection strategies
8.6.4 How will the rollout of self-driving cars affect the insurance industry?
8.6.5 Self-driving cars and the Internet of Things
8.6.6 New mobility services and business models for fully autonomous cars

Glossary

 

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プレスリリース

[プレスリリース原文]

2016-10-05
Autonomous cars will reach sales of 24 million units in 2030


According to a new research report from Berg Insight, the first autonomous cars will debut in 2020. The total number of new registrations of autonomous cars is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 62 percent from 0.2 million units in 2020 to reach 24 million units in 2030. The active installed base of autonomous cars is forecasted to have reached about 71 million at the end of 2030. These figures include SAE Level 3 and 4 cars. It is important to note that autonomous cars are not a single innovation; rather this technology can be seen as a continuum of various levels of autonomy where the amount of driver involvement is the main differentiating factor.

Furthermore, several sophisticated technologies must come together to enable a car to safely drive by itself and autonomous cars will therefore roll out in incremental phases. In particular, software for interpreting sensor information and managing the driving logic is key to the development of self-driving cars. Several automobile manufacturers have initiated projects to develop self-driving features in their cars. The incumbent automakers are joined by multiple new actors such as IT companies and other technology-oriented firms. Most incumbent automotive companies pursue an incremental approach with step-by-step roll-out of autonomous systems while startups and IT companies take a more revolutionary direction and aim at developing fully autonomous cars immediately from scratch.

“These pathways do not contradict each other as different autonomous systems are suitable in different use cases. We will continue to see development from both sides for still some years before the two approaches converge”, says Ludvig Barrehag, M2M/IoT analyst at Berg Insight. The advent of autonomous cars is expected to have a tremendous impact on our society in several ways. Cars are among the most costly as well as inefficiently used assets of today. When cars can operate around the clock on a service based business model it results in a tremendous increase of their utilization rate. Furthermore, autonomous cars will improve life quality for people unable to drive, reduce the number of fatalities and accidents in road traffic and increase overall traffic efficiency. The economic benefits are vast – the challenge is to succeed in making self-driving cars sufficiently reliable at a reasonable cost to enable commercialization.

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