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サブサハラアフリカの通信市場:動向と予測 2019-2024年

Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019-2024

 

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Analysys Mason
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2020年1月US$7,999
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The number of internet users in Sub-Saharan Africa will grow rapidly during the forecast period thanks to the strong take-up of 3G and 4G mobile data services. The fixed broadband market will remain small in absolute terms, but it will grow strongly in urban areas thanks to an increase in the size of the middle-class population and expanded infrastructure coverage.

目次

Table of contents:

 
8.Executive summary and recommendations
The telecoms revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa will grow strongly during the forecast period, mainly driven by an increasing appetite for mobile data
A healthy economic prognosis for the region will lead to strong growth in disposable incomes, and will thus help to grow telecoms ARPU
Geographical coverage: the adoption of next-generation access (NGA) fixed broadband will increase the most in Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa
Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
Market context: GDP per capita will continue to act as one of the primary limiting factors of faster telecoms revenue growth
Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
Key drivers at a glance for each Sub-Saharan Africa market
Market overview: mobile revenue growth will slow down as some markets begin to saturate; fixed broadband revenue growth will accelerate
Mobile: the strong take-up of 3G and 4G (and to a lesser extent 5G) will lead to rapid growth in mobile data usage
Mobile: mobile penetration will increase across the region as increasing network coverage is balanced by the decreasing need for multiple SIMs
Mobile: growing data consumption and the migration to 4G services will have an inflationary effect on ARPU, but strong market competition will limit this effect
Mobile: operators in SSA will shift towards a data-centric model as cheap smartphones and LTE coverage become ubiquitous
Fixed: fixed-wireless will remain the dominant broadband access technology, but fibre will start to catch up in terms of the number of connections
23.Fixed: fixed broadband penetration will only increase slightly during the forecast period
Fixed: ASPU will remain largely stable on a regional level because increased NGA penetration will be offset by the natural decline in access prices
Fixed: the penetration of fixed broadband will grow rapidly, but the adoption of the service will remain largely confined to a small niche of customers
Specialist business services: the majority of business services revenue in SSA will be generated in Nigeria and South Africa
IoT: the number of cellular M2M connections will grow significantly, but M2M will remain a niche segment
Pay TV: total revenue growth will be driven by the increased take-up of DTH and pay-DTT services
Individual country forecasts
Ghana: mobile revenue growth will slow down during the forecast period; fixed broadband revenue will grow rapidly from a small base
Ghana: mobile data traffic will more than triple over the forecast period thanks to rapid growth in LTE coverage and take-up
Ghana: the mobile segment will begin to saturate and the adoption of fixed broadband will remain confined to a small niche of customers
Ghana: forecast changes
Kenya: fixed broadband service adoption will benefit from continued operator investment
Kenya: the strong take-up of 4G and the introduction of 5G will drive mobile traffic; fibre will consolidate its dominance in the broadband segment
36.Kenya: Safaricom will face stiff competition following the merger of Telkom Kenya and Airtel
Kenya: forecast changes
Nigeria: the mobile market will continue to show strong potential for growth despite uncertain economic conditions
Nigeria: increasing smartphone affordability and operators’ LTE network expansions will sustain the take-up of 4G services and drive data usage
Nigeria: mobile revenue will grow strongly as penetration continues to increase at a steady pace
Nigeria: forecast changes
South Africa: the high disposable income will support the growth in the demand for telecoms services but will be offset by slow economic growth
South Africa: the number of prepaid connections will grow, so the contract share of mobile connections will remain unchanged despite net growth
South Africa: the number of 4G connections will grow in the short term, but 5G will be the technology of choice for high-value consumers by 2024
South Africa: forecast changes
Tanzania: mobile service revenue will grow moderately over the forecast period due to competition and new regulations
Tanzania: price competition in the mobile market will drive ARPU down; fixed-wireless will be the most-widespread broadband technology in 2024
Tanzania: there is potential for growth in the number of mobile connections, but the penetration of fixed services will remain limited
Tanzania: forecast changes
Uganda: the mobile market will gradually recover following a significant contraction in 2019
51.Uganda: the 4G share of mobile connections will grow to over a third by 2024 due to the demand for data services
Uganda: there is potential for a mobile market recovery, but poverty and a large rural population will hinder future growth
Uganda: forecast changes
Methodology
Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
Examples of forecast input drivers
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason
 
List of figures:

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014?2024
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018?2024
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018 and 2024
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 5: Metrics for the 11 countries modelled individually in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019?2024), by country, Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 2014?2024
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014?2024
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014?2024
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014?2024
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014?2024
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD per month), 2014?2024
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014?2024

Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (GB per month), 2014?2024
Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014?2024

Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014?2024
Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014?2024

Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014?2024
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014?2024
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 2014?2024
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014?2024
Figure 21: Fixed internet traffic per broadband connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (GB per month), 2014?2024
Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014?2024

Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014?2024
Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014?2024

Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014?2024
Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014?2024
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014?2024

Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014?2024
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Ghana (GHS billion), 2014?2024
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Ghana (million), 2014?2024
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Ghana, 2014?2024
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Ghana (thousand), 2014?2024
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Ghana, 2014?2024
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Ghana (GHS per month), 2014?2024
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Ghana (GB per month), 2014?2024
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Ghana (thousand), 2014?2024
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue ? current and previous forecasts, Ghana, 2014?2024
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Kenya (KES billion), 2014?2024
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Kenya (million), 2014?2024
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Kenya, 2014?2024
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Kenya (thousand), 2014?2024
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Kenya, 2014?2024
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Kenya (KES thousand per month), 2014?2024

Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Kenya (GB per month), 2014?2024
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Kenya (thousand), 2014?2024
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue ? current and previous forecasts, Kenya, 2014?2024
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Nigeria (NGN trillion), 2014?2024
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Nigeria (million), 2014?2024
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Nigeria, 2014?2024
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Nigeria (thousand), 2014?2024
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Nigeria, 2014?2024
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Nigeria (NGN thousand per month), 2014?2024
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Nigeria (GB per month), 2014?2024
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Nigeria (thousand), 2014?2024
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue ? current and previous forecasts, Nigeria, 2014?2024
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, South Africa (ZAR billion), 2014?2024
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, South Africa (million), 2014?2024
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, South Africa, 2014?2024

Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, South Africa (million), 2014?2024
Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, South Africa, 2014?2024
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, South Africa (ZAR per month), 2014?2024
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, South Africa (GB per month), 2014?2024
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, South Africa (million), 2014?2024
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue ? current and previous forecasts, South Africa, 2014?2024
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Tanzania (TZS trillion), 2014?2024
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Tanzania (million), 2014?2024
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Tanzania, 2014?2024
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Tanzania (thousand), 2014?2024
Figure 67: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Tanzania, 2014?2024
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Tanzania (TZS thousand per month), 2014?2024
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Tanzania (GB per month), 2014?2024
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Tanzania (thousand), 2014?2024
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue ? current and previous forecasts, Tanzania, 2014?2024

Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Uganda (UGX trillion), 2014?2024
Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Uganda (million), 2014?2024
Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Uganda, 2014?2024
Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Uganda (thousand), 2014?2024
Figure 76: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Uganda, 2014?2024
Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Uganda (UGX thousand per month),
2014?2024
Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Uganda (GB per month), 2014?2024
Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Uganda (thousand), 2014?2024
Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue ? current and previous forecasts, Uganda, 2014?2024
Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

 

 

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